Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
RealGM Search
Cincinnati at Houston: These teams met four weeks ago in Cincinnati, a game the Texans won on the final play after trailing since the middle of the first quarter. Rookie QB TJ Yates led a well-executed two minute drill, taking his team 80 yards with zero timeouts. It culminated with a strike that sent the Texans to their first-ever playoff appearance and division title.
People here in Houston are clinging to that magical moment, because since then the team has not looked anything like a playoff team. The Texans have lost three in a row as Yates has come back to being a 5th round rookie third-stringer. And a closer look back at that game reveals big trouble in Reliant Stadium for the home team this Saturday.
Houston has to rely on their running game more now than ever. Yet in the first meeting the Cincy defense did a great job bottling up Arian Foster, limiting him to 41 yards on 15 carries and just two runs longer than four yards. Ben Tate broke free for a 44-yarder but averaged just 3.1 yards per carry on his other attempts. The Bengals have a very active defensive front with great depth, and they absolutely can bottle up the strong Texan running game once again. Expect Bengals Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer to dedicate all resources to stopping the run and forcing young Yates to beat them. With underappreciated guys like Geno Atkins and Jonathan Fanene rolling at them in waves, it will not be east sledding for the Houston run game.
But the Texans have hope in the form of Andre Johnson. The star wideout missed the first contest, along with more than half the season, with a gimpy hamstring. In his absence they focused on throwing to tight ends Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen and tried to make do with erratic Jacoby Jones as the lone downfield threat. Johnson's presence returns order to the receiving depth chart and pecking order, and the Bengals have struggled more in pass defense since their own #1 corner, Leon Hall, was lost due to injury. If Yates can harness the moxie the showed at the end of the last meeting and hook up with Johnson, Houston has the potential to seize their first playoff win.
I don't think they have it. Andy Dalton was decent in the last game (16-for-28, 189 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, and a sack/fumble), but more to the point Dalton is very consistent in what he does and how he does it. He completed 58% of his passes on the season by completing between 50 and 59 percent in 11 of his 16 games. He's thrown just one interception in the last seven games. I also like how he learned when he faced an opponent for the second time, as he will here. His first game against Baltimore was a train-wreck, easily his worst performance of the season. He rebounded last week with a much better, smarter effort. The same was true in his Pittsburgh games, albeit with less fluctuation. He learned to avoid the interception traps in coverage and how to get the ball out of his hand quicker to mitigate the pass rush. I suspect he will sit down with Offensive Coordinator (soon to be a head coach somewhere) Jay Gruden and correctly decipher how to attack the Texans more effectively the second time around. I love how they move around AJ Green to get him favorable matchups, and how Dalton is in sync with TE Jermaine Gresham as a secondary target.
Cincinnati 23, Houston 17.
Detroit at New Orleans: Let's take a quick look back at the first meeting between these two teams, a 31-17 Saints win in Week 13. Playing without the suspended Ndamukong Suh and their two best DBs (Louis Delmas and Chris Houston) and at a time when the Lions were floundering in losing four of their last six, Detroit went into New Orleans and largely outplayed the home team. Detroit had more yards, more first downs, held the ball for 10 minutes longer, and allowed the Saints just three first downs in the second half.
The story of that game was penalties. The Lions committed 11 of them, costing them 107 yards in the game book but really 224 yards if you factor in the yardage lost from those plays. It took six points off the board in one instance and essentially put New Orleans in the end zone with another. Detroit lost five third down conversions to penalties. This was the height of the knucklehead stage of the season for Detroit, and it cost them dearly in that game.
Suh is back, Delmas is back, and the Lions will amazingly have their entire Week 1 starting lineup on the field defensively. Even though Suh will get all the attention, it's Delmas' presence that is the key. He is the leader of the back end, the guy responsible for setting the coverage and making the adjustment calls. Delmas is also the best playmaker the Lions have in the secondary, though with his knee issue he has not been able to do much in that area. Given how badly this secondary has played in his absence (see Matt Flynn's six TDs last week), Delmas and his mates have to play at their best to give their offense a chance.
I also think turnovers will be critical in deciding this game. Both offenses are so good and both defenses are so vulnerable. With Stafford and Brees both topping 5000 yards passing and 40 touchdowns, the scoreboard operator will be busy. That makes getting an unexpected possession via the turnover paramount, and that's why I think Detroit can pull off the improbable upset. The Lions finished tied for 4th in takeaways, while the Saints finished 31st. Stafford has played on a different plane since his injured finger healed, and the emergence of Titus Young as a legit complementary weapon to Calvin Johnson has turbo boosted the entire offense.
Unfortunately for this Lions fan, I don't trust Coach Jim Schwartz to adequately remedy the penalty issue. It's hard to expect that from a powder keg of a coach who acts like a homicidal gorilla when the ref mis-spots the ball by eight inches. His immature antics have cost him credibility with the officials and it cost them the game against Green Bay last week. The refs aren't likely to give that hysterical reactionary the benefit of the doubt on calls, certainly not on the road. His team's lack of discipline and sense reflects poorly on him, and it greatly inhibits their ability to pull off an upset like this. I think the Lions keep it close and entertaining, but the poise and playoff experience of New Orleans are too much to overcome.
New Orleans 37, Detroit 31.
Atlanta at New York Giants: This is the game for which Atlanta mortgaged their future upon Julio Jones. It's playoff time and the other team can score points in bunches, and the Falcons felt they had to make the drastic move to get Jones so they could keep up.
Jones was decent in his rookie season, catching 54 balls for just under 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. Considering he is the second banana to Roddy White in the receiving pecking order, those numbers are pretty solid. But the Falcons need him to be the lid-lifter off the defense, and this is a great game to ascertain whether he was worth the high price.
The Giants don't do much well in the back end of pass defense, so they play a deep Cover-2 zone predominately. At times they mix in some under zone and some off man, but their focus is to not let anyone get deep. When paired with their very good front four pass rush and the intermittent blitz, it helps New York do a good job in eliminating the deep throws. Atlanta will have to play well up front--where they've been inconsistent at best--and try to slip Jones behind the safeties and take some chances. That is a little out of character for them, but desperate times call for desperate measures. And the desperate measures Atlanta already took dictate leaning heavily upon Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones.
Part of the reason for the desperation figures to be the fact that the New York offense is very likely to score a bundle of points. Victor Cruz became the receiver the Falcons so desperately want Jones to be, racking up over 1500 yards at 18.7 yards per catch. That's an outstanding figure for someone with 82 receptions, even more so for an undrafted free agent that missed his rookie season because of injury. Insert snide allusion about Jones' draft status here. Anyhow, Eli Manning and his cast of receivers should have some opportunities to exploit the Atlanta pass defense. The Falcons really struggle on 3rd downs, and the Giants have nudged their way into the top ten in converting those.
I also have faith in New York's playoff experience. This is a team that knows how to win when they have to, and has proven they can win playoff games they are supposed to lose. If they ever get their running game working, they're probably the most complete team in the NFC. I respect the Falcons and I think they are a strong team. They're just not of the proven playoff caliber of the teams above them, and the Giants happen to be one of those. They certainly can win this game if Jones proves worth the draft-day gamble and if their pass rush can force Manning into some mistakes. Their special teams can flip the game as well. But I'll take the Giants to win. New York 31, Atlanta 27.
Pittsburgh at Denver: The conventional and popular wisdom with this game is that because the Tebow magic has been exposed and because the Steelers defense is so good, Denver doesn't stand a chance. I tend to agree with that but in watching Pittsburgh the last couple of weeks, I am not so sure.
The Steelers offense has stagnated big time, thanks to Ben Roethlisberger's wonky ankle and persistent line problems that exacerbate the problems created with his immobility. In Cleveland last week, Roethlisberger was defenseless against the rush. It was hard to watch him just submit to the will of Athyba Rubin rather than utilize his usual escape heroics. Browns rookie DE Jabaal Sheard was in Ben's face, arm, and midsection all afternoon long, completely overmatching whomever the Steelers tried to use to slow him down. The Broncos happen to have an even better rookie edge rusher in Von Miller, and he actually gets help from the other side more often than Sheard does. With the Pittsburgh O-line in a chronic state of injury and ineffectiveness fluctuation, the Steelers have a major problem. Losing top RB Rashard Mendenhall only adds to the burden, though Isaac Redman was arguably more effective in the elements in Cleveland and John Clay showed a spark the week prior.
What all of that means is that the Broncos should be able to keep it close if Tebow can get back to protecting the football. And we all know what happens (most of the time) when Tebow gets the ball late in a game with a chance to drive both sides of his polarized perceivers crazy. The thing is, as much as I do believe there is something to Tebow Time, I think the similarity between the Kansas City defense a week ago and the Pittsburgh defense this week make any divine heroics fairly unlikely. The Chiefs never wavered from their aggressiveness and tight man coverage, and the Steelers are built to do the exact same. Plus, it's harder to run against the Steelers than the Chiefs thanks to a certain hirsute safety that likes to line up on the hip of nose tackle Casey Hampton. I look for Troy Polamalu to instigate at least one turnover, Tebow to complete less than 10 passes for less than 95 yards, and Roethlisberger to hit one of his speedy receivers for one long score that makes the difference on the scoreboard. Pittsburgh 16, Denver 13.
