Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 8-5, pushing my season record to 66-39.
This weekend brings Halloween. I encourage everyone to participate in making it a fun time for the little ghosts and princesses, and also to not be the person that gives out Bible verses or toothbrushes instead of candy. Do not be that guy!
Sunday Best:
New England (3) at Pittsburgh (4): Tom Brady has been an enduring problem for Steelers defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau. Brady is 4-1 with a QB rating of 104.1 against Pittsburgh, with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. He has averaged over 330 yards per contest. All of those numbers obliterate what mere mortal quarterbacks do against Pittsburgh. They have tried exotic blitzes, dropping eight into coverage, overload rushes, man/zone coverage mixtures, all to no avail.
The question here is if the Steelers can fight fire with fire and outscore the Patriots. I think they can. Mike Wallace and his 20.3 yards per catch get all the limelight, but Pittsburgh has a cadre of other receivers that are invaluable against a defense that tries to stymie Wallace. Hines Ward, Antonio Brown, and Heath Miller all have a very similar number of catches and yards, and all three have the same amount of third down receptions. Throw in Emmanuel Sanders and his great YAC ability, and Big Ben has a multitude of ways to beat a defense. They have carved up significantly better defenses than the one New England brings to town. No team gives up more yards per attempt than the Patriots, and though their average is trending positively it remains a huge weakness.
That sets this game up as one of those "who has the ball last" games. I always favor the home team in those situations, especially when the home team has LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu. Expect this to be one of the most entertaining games of the season. I like Big Ben to rally the Steelers to victory with a late score. Pittsburgh 38, New England 34.
Sunny Day Games:
Dallas (14) at Philadelphia (18): This has all the makings of a video game come to life. Both offenses are capable of scoring touchdowns from anywhere on the field, loaded with explosive weapons that strike fear into defenses. Both quarterbacks are able to make outstanding plays out of imminent peril, and both like to throw the ball down the field. Both are also prone to turning the ball over in bunches. Both teams rush the passer very well, which often forces turnovers and third-and-long situations. Both defenses have proven vulnerable to running backs that can cut sharply, and both teams have runners that do precisely that (LeSean McCoy is an excellent salary cap fantasy play). Add in the emotion of a simmering rivalry and the very real impression that the loser of this game is probably whacked from the playoff race, and this shapes up as a real barnburner.
I can make valid arguments for either side to win, but I am going to trust my initial gut reaction. I thought Philadelphia because I just really do not trust Tony Romo in a pressure-packed game on the road. Romo certainly has the ability to prove me wrong, but I need to see him do it first. I also do not think the Cowboys be able to match the production of McCoy on the ground, even as they go against a run defense as bad as that of Philadelphia. Eagles 32, Cowboys 28.
San Diego (10) at Kansas City (17): As I started to write up this forecast I was startled by the doorbell. One of those door-to-door meat salesmen was trying to coerce me into purchasing deeply discounted steaks and burgers from the back of his pickup truck. I try to be polite to these guys; they are just trying to make a living and I understand and respect that. But I was brought up that no means no, and the more times I have to tell you know, the more likely I am to get belligerent. After the fifth time of telling this meat magnate that I was not interested in buying anything, I rather forcefully asked him to leave. He immediately gets hostile towards me, accusing me of copping an attitude and being a bad person. Never mind that I live in a subdivision that has a big sign stating "No Solicitors" or that I have a three-year old girl crying in the background because "Beauty and the Beast" ended and I cannot get her a cookie. People like that should probably not be relying on their personality to sell meat to make a living, although I guess some people do fall for the continuous body blows of salesmanship and pressure and wind up with freezers full of cheap meat.
That guy reminds me of Chiefs coach Todd Haley, who has the same kind of relentless agitation that makes people dislike him but also wears them down and gets you to buy into what he is selling just to shut him up.
That was his approach two summers ago with Dwayne Bowe, and it worked. That appears to be his angle this season after a disastrous 0-2 start, and once again his Chiefs seem hungry for his overdone steak. To his credit the team has rallied successfully, and a win here would put them in first place in the AFC West. They have been the much better team than the Chargers the past few weeks, and I do not get the sense that quarterback Philip Rivers has any idea why he is playing so poorly. The game is in Kansas City, a town that knows itself some meat. Haley and the resurgent Chiefs barbecue the Chargers 20-17.
Jacksonville (24) at Houston (11): Houston seized control of their destiny last week in highly impressive fashion. As much as I respect what Jacksonville did Monday night, I just do not see them being able to handle Arian Foster at full strength and Matt Schaub playing with confidence. I also like how the Houston defense is sorting out their roles and compensating for the loss of Mario Williams. Connor Barwin is quietly playing very well and Brian Cushing is looking more and more like the 2009 Defensive Rookie of the Year than the 2010 Juiceless Disappointment. Secondary coach Vance Joseph told me this summer that Brice McCain was going to have a breakout season, and McCain is indeed playing well as the nickel back. He is markedly better than Kareem Jackson, a 2010 first-round flop that will be lucky to make the team next year. The Jaguars will play hard but they just do not have the horses to run with the Texans in Reliant Stadium. At least Blaine Gabbert and his hair will look awesome for the Jaguars. Houston 26, Jacksonville 10.
Washington (19) at Buffalo (9) in Toronto: The Ethnic Slurs are dropping like flies, with the latest victims being Santana Moss and Tim Hightower. Hightower is done for the year, and while Moss is not on injured reserve it is not certain he will make it back before their year ends. But the most meaningful injury for this game is the tweaked hamstring of London Fletcher. Fletcher is the heart and soul of the defense, and with so many supporting pieces also slowed (O.J. Atogwe, DeAngelo Hall and Reed Doughty all missed practice time this week) I just do not see this defense being able to contain the Buffalo offense. Fred Jackson is a great play as a salary cap fantasy runner, especially since he will have fresh legs coming off the bye.
Buffalo has some injury problems of their own, as Kyle Williams will be out once again and Shawne Merriman is headed for the glue factory with another torn Achilles. Their pass rush was pathetic with those two, and it is not likely to get better without them. John Beck is a terrible quarterback when pressured, but given time he has some ability. But without Moss, Hightower and Chris Cooley, Beck lacks the weapons to fully take advantage and win an arms race with Ryan Fitzpatrick and his merry band of toys. Bills 36, Ethnic Slurs 17 in a game that could spiral out of control quickly for Washington.
Fair Skies:
Arizona (29) at Baltimore (7): I am going to start calling Joe Flacco "cockroach." Flacco is often a very good quarterback when nobody is focusing on him. Much like the cockroach that gorges in the shadows and thrives out of the spotlight, Flacco has proven he can dominate when the focus is elsewhere. But Monday night, when the lights shone bright and there was nowhere to hide, Flacco was as good as dead. This has largely been the story of his career, and I do not expect it to change. But in the obscured darkness of playing in the late-day game with a regional broadcast, the cockroach thrives. Look for Flacco to bounce back strong and the Ravens defense to send Kevin Kolb scurrying underneath a refrigerator to hide. Of course that refrigerator wears #92 in black and purple and will squash Kolb and his shaky offensive line like Dale Gribble. Ravens roll 33-13.
Miami (31) at New York Giants (6): No team will suffer a more demoralizing loss than the one Miami did last week, getting Tebow-ed by a quarterback having an awful day with their own fans openly cheering for the other team. Their coach has been a dead man walking since before the season started. Starting quarterback Matt Moore is subpar and banged up, and backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels just left the team with a blood disorder, forcing them to sign J.P. Losman. Losman is one of the few guys that makes Matt Moore look like a legit starter. The Giants have finally solved their post-bye woes (they have won the last three), and their M.A.S.H. unit has had time to recoup and regroup. Every single forecast model points to New York winning. Quite honestly that scares me a little, but then I remember how the Dolphins played down the stretch last week and feel a little better about picking the Giants. New York 24, Miami 10.
Detroit (13) at Denver (28): It appears Matt Stafford is out, which means Shaun Hill gets his crack at righting what is wrong with the Lions offense. And at the risk of scorn from my fellow Lions fans, I think this might be the best thing to happen to the Lions since Tony Romo forgot which team he was supposed to throw the ball to a few weeks back.
Stafford has really struggled with making the routine throws. He has still made some big plays down the field, but the accuracy on the more rudimentary passes has just not been acceptable. Hill does not have the arm of Stafford or go-for-broke mentality, but he has shown he can move the chains and take what the defense gives him. With the weapons the Lions have in the passing game, this more conservative approach can be a very effective strategy. It can certainly be enough to vanquish the Broncos, who have some quarterback struggles of their own...
This sure seems like a terrible matchup for Tim Tebow. The Lions consistently get to the quarterback by rushing just four, often quite rapidly, so Tebow will be forced to make quick decisions. Look at the plays where Tebow has been successful -- they are broken plays where he runs around and makes things happen, playground style. With Corey Williams, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril chasing him around and getting pressure from all angles, the playground is full of big fifth graders and Tebow is still a kindergartener. And then there is this man named Suh, who plays with nasty intentions and is still as unblockable as any lineman in the league even though he has not been quite as good as last year. Detroit really struggles to stop the run, but that is a function of how they play stylistically. Their goal is to disrupt the pass and check to the run along the way. This week they need to do the opposite, keying on the run and worrying about the pass if and when Tebow proves he can beat them with the pass. If Lions defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham cannot see that through his yellow shooting glasses, he should be fired.
There are a lot of moving parts in this forecast, which makes it a tough read. I strongly believe the Lions will win, but I cannot shake the concept that God simply wants Tebow to be victorious. Detroit plays the evil empire nicely, and their propensity for stupid gaffes sure leaves the door open for more Tebow heroics. But Halloween is the time for the forces of darkness to revel, and that carries the day for Detroit. Lions 30-20, but I cannot admonish enough that you bet against Tim Tebow at the peril of eternal damnation.
Cleveland (26) at San Francisco (5): I love fluky statistics, ones that contradict common sense or prove unexpectedly pointless. Cleveland notched one such example last week in their game against Seattle. The Browns held the ball for 42:17, the highest time of possession recorded by any team all season by over a minute. They also converted 12-of-24 third down opportunities, another league season high. Just by looking at that, you could credibly construe that the Browns offense dominated the game and routed the inept Seahawks. This is where the numbers do in fact lie, despite what the talented Michael Smith will have you believe in his new ESPN2 show.
Cleveland had the ball all that time, yet they managed just one red zone appearance. They gained under 300 yards for the game despite running 84 plays. Their leading receiver for the day was Chris Ogbonnaya, a running back who was on the practice squad of the Texans last Tuesday. Normally reliable kicker Phil Dawson had two field goals blocked, including a 24-yarder that marks the shortest field goal attempt to get blocked in team history. The only saving grace for the woefully inefficient and punchless Browns offense is that they were better than Seattle, thanks in part to an underappreciated defense.
That defense gives the Browns a fighting chance in this one, despite what most pundits will tell you. I also think the 49ers caught their bye week at precisely the wrong time, killing the momentum from their momentous victory at Detroit. Now they have had two weeks to believe they are great, and that can lead to complacency. I like Jim Harbaugh as a coach, but he is a rookie coach and one of the most common rookie coaching mistakes is letting a team get too high after a big victory. His emotional style plays into that as well. The Cleveland defense is a different kind of animal, not necessarily better or worse but different. I like them to cause major problems for an offense that I think will be rusty. Of course the 49ers have a pretty strong defense of their own, and with Cleveland struggling so badly on offense I think the Niners will be able to eke out enough points to outscore the Browns. Take the +9.5 and the under. San Francisco 16, Cleveland 10.
Minnesota (23) at Carolina (25): Most of the attention in Carolina will be on the rookie quarterbacks, but here are a few tidbits you can arm yourself with to show off to the meathead at the next table at your local sports bar on Sunday afternoon:
-- The acquisition of linebacker Antwan Applewhite has been huge for the Panthers. He knows the Ron Rivera defense form their days together in San Diego and has the versatility to play all over the formation. That has allowed Carolina to go with more 3-4 looks, which lets them get their three best (and only) pass rushers on the field together. For a team to find an injury replacement that gives them that sort of impact is huge.
-- Jared Allen has 11.5 sacks already, well beyond pace to shatter the single-season sack record of Michael Strahan. Carolina has given up three sacks a game in their last four contests, so expect Allen to tack on at least another 1.5 to his tally.
-- Panthers rookie tackle Byron Bell has arguably been the best rookie offensive lineman in the league this year. Although he has given up three sacks, he has more than replaced perennially injured Jeff Otah as a run blocker and the coaches love his work ethic and attitude. Not bad for an undrafted guy. The Panthers have another rookie lineman, Lee Ziemba, that has not been too shabby himself and is comfortable playing in space in front of Newton like he did at Auburn.
-- The Vikings rank second in first quarter points scored, but 28th in the fourth quarter, while the Panthers rank 30th in points allowed in the fourth quarter but tied for seventh in the first quarter.
That last one indicates to me that this should be a close one. Close games usually hinge on which quarterback is more trustworthy. That advantage goes to Cam Newton, who has made some magic a few times already in his young career. Panthers win a close one, 27-24.
Mr. Scary
Indianapolis (32) at Tennessee (22): This is a game that the Colts faithful can circle as a winnable contest. The Titans cannot run the ball and their passing offense is inconsistent with the unpredictable play of Matt Hasselbeck. Curtis Painter has not been great in replacing Peyton Manning, but he has done a good job of protecting the ball (two interceptions in five games) and has some big-strike chemistry with Pierre Garcon. I think the 62-7 abomination will bring these Colts closer together and summon up some pride. Nobody likes being emasculated on national television like that and I think it will draw out some testicular fortitude from Dwight Freeney & Co. On paper, even copious amounts of focus and effort look like they will be inadequate. But I harken back to their prior games, where Indy has been largely competitive.
The problem with that line of thinking is that Tennessee got bombarded pretty badly in its own right last week, losing 41-7 to Houston. If this game were in Indianapolis I would take the Colts, but I think the combination of the Titans playing at home and drawing upon their own reserves of testicular fortitude will prove too much to overcome. If Chris Johnson cannot get it going in this one, it is time to cut bait and I think he will reward his patient fantasy owners here. Titans 28, Colts 24.
Cincinnati (8) at Seattle (27): Last week Seattle could not do a thing against the Browns defense. Cincinnati brings the #1 rated defense in opposing first downs and #2 in yards per play to the Pacific Northwest, where it will be in the low 50s and likely raining at game time. The Bengals will miss Cedric Benson and his unspectacular steadiness, but Andy Dalton will prove just how big a fool Pete Carroll is for passing on him in the draft and choosing to go ahead with Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson. Dalton gets aided by Seattle losing starting cornerback Walter Thurmond, which forces greenhorn rookie Richard Sherman into the starting lineup. Fellow rookie A.J. Green takes advantage and is a strong fantasy play even in inclement weather. Bengals 23, Seahawks 10.
New Orleans (2) at St. Louis (30): Fantasy owners of Drew Brees have to be ecstatic with the schedule-makers. Last week was Indianapolis, which ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed and 30th in total quarterback pressures and sacks. This week brings St. Louis, which ranks dead last in surrendering touchdown passes per game and per attempt. With the Rams offense ranking 28th in time of possession, the New Orleans offense should have plenty of opportunities to run up some serious points once again. I do not see another 62-point outburst, but the forecast models all indicate they get at least halfway there. New Orleans 40, St. Louis 16
Byes: Atlanta (12), Chicago (16), Green Bay (1), Tampa Bay (21), NY Jets (15), Oakland (20)
Partying in the Streets of Athens, Ohio:
Last Week: 3-2, which keeps with my pattern. That means this week will be 5-0!
Michigan State 30, Nebraska 20 -- The magic continues.
Florida 28, Georgia 27 -- For my cousin Brett, get well soon Brettski!
Oklahoma 35, Kansas State 31 -- No Big 12 north team can possibly go unbeaten.
Penn State 25, Illinois 24 -- PSU is the most underrated one-loss team in the nation.
Stanford 37, USC 28 -- In a game I will be watching intently for quarterback scouting purposes.
