Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01--I woke up this morning and the first thing I read was Michael Vick getting a $100M contract from the Eagles. Typically I like to trust my gut at first and then try to rationalize the differing opinion as I go along, and my gut reaction was Wow are they gonna regret this! I am now in the rationalization phase, and I still really dislike the move.
I happen to like Michael Vick, but I also happen to think his style of play and injury history makes long-term commitment foolish. He has played one very good season in the last eight, and in that season he had zero pressure on him because nobody expected him to play. 2010 was the first season he had ever completed more than 56% of his passes. It was the first time he was above the league average in yards per attempt or net yards per attempt (that factors in sacks). I respect the Eagles for sticking by their man and rewarding strong play, but I would definitely have waited to see Vick do it again before showering him with cash.
DeSean Jackson, who is no small reason why Vick looked so great last year, has angrily had his hand extended for a while now. There is already some fragile chemistry with all the new prominent pieces here, and giving Vick that kind of money is not going to ameliorate any of those issues. I understand the Eagles had a limited window to negotiate with Vick here, but why rush? What if Vick gets hurt, or worse, regresses into the inaccurate turnover machine he was most of his career in Atlanta? You just paid $100M for one strong season where Vick failed to win you one playoff game. Throwing caution to the wind is one thing; throwing caution into Hurricane Irene is another. Ask Atlanta how the last $100M contract Vick got worked out...
$.02--Peyton Manning jogged onto the practice field for the first time on Monday, giving hope to Colts fans who were busy prepping paper bags to wear during games. He is still in some stage of recovery from offseason neck surgery, and that progress is the subject of intense scrutiny and debate. Nerve regeneration is a dicey, unpredictable venture.
I strongly believe that Manning will take the field in Week 1, extending his consecutive games streak and showing his teammates his toughness and dedication. I also strongly believe that Manning at even 75% gives the Colts a better chance to win than either Curtis Painter or the ghost of Kerry Collins. Yet I also believe that Manning should not play until he is 100% and has some practice time logged to work out the timing issues and precision. Manning is 35 and has never been the most athletically gifted guy. So much of his greatness is based on repetition and perfect synchronicity with his targets. The lack of offseason work is a real issue. Playing behind a line that will start two rookie tackles is dangerous, enough that I would be uncomfortable quite literally risking my neck to play behind it. The Colts have no running game and will likely throw the ball at least 35 times to try and outscore the opponent. That is an awful lot of potential career-ending and life-altering hits.
Here is what I would do if I were running the Colts:
-- Keep Manning out until after the Pittsburgh game in Week 3. Start Painter and let him play unless he looks woefully overmatched, then put in Collins.
-- Hope the defense and special teams can pull out one win in the first three weeks.
-- Let Manning come in fresh and as close to 100% as possible and go on a run to steal the weak AFC South with 9 or 10 wins.
I would much rather face that scenario than rushing Peyton back, having him get hurt or aggravating the injury, and losing him for a full season and possibly more.
$.03--Chicago quickly gave up on Vernon Gholston, cutting the 2008 first round pick this week. He washed out of New York when he failed to show any real NFL ability in his first three seasons with the Jets, and now the Bears saw enough, or rather not enough, to end the experiment pretty quickly.
Chicago seemed like the perfect place for Gholston to breathe life into his career. He was definitely a better fit as a 4-3 DE than a 3-4 OLB as he was in New York, and he got to spend the summer with one of the best teachers in the NFL in DL Coach Rod Marinelli. But Gholston simply cannot perform NFL tasks at an NFL level. He lacked any sort of burst off the snap, and was easily blocked by even the second team linemen of the Bears, none of whom would be on any other NFL roster. Gholston just never learned how to use his hands or translate his excellent athletic ability into football ability. Now his career seems over.
Let Gholston be the latest cautionary tale of falling in love with measurables at the expense of football skills and immeasurables. The Bengals will find that out very soon with Taylor Mays, the safety version of Gholston.
$.04--Time for some college ball, as the NCAA kicks off this weekend. I will be in Austin for the Texas/Rice game, which you can watch on the controversial new Longhorn Network...if you live in one of the approximately 70,000 homes in America where the $40M ESPN-sponsored network is actually available.
This Longhorn Network is quickly becoming the Ishtar of college football. It nearly dissolved the Big 12 last summer, and now it appears to be the death knell for the conference (more on that next!). Cable providers are essentially taking massive payola bribes to carry it, and the demand for its incredibly limited scope of programming is underwhelming.
Having moved to Texas last year, I have been astounded by the arrogance of the University of Texas and its fan base, but even the biggest burnt orange sycophants are befuddled by a 24/7 network devoted exclusively to UT sports. I come from Big Ten country, and the Big Ten Network is great for the eleven, err, twelve teams there. Devoting an entire network to one college athletic program is guaranteed to provide days of boredom. How many times can even the most dedicated fan watch the 2007 Texas/Kansas football game, or the stirring womens field hockey match with UTSA last week?
As the Big Ten Network can attest, about 2500 people will watch non-live football games once. After that, the only viewers are 4-year olds that somehow got a hold of the remote control and accidentally tuned in, family members of the athletes involved, and sleepy college kids looking for a nap with some background noise. This just has disaster written all over it, especially since the network debuts during a season where the Longhorns will be hard-pressed to win more than seven games.
$.05--As for the Big 12, the end is nigh. Texas A&M is departing for the SEC at some point in the very near future, and Missouri and the two Oklahoma schools are ripe for the picking by other conferences looking for new markets and more prominent programs. A conference with Texas and no other team that has ever made a BCS Bowl will not last, and no schools will rush in to play in the shadow of the Longhorns. That statement probably comes as a shock to those in Austin, but it is true.
Living here as a relative outsider in Houston, it is fun to watch the Texas A&M fans and their interaction with Texas. The Aggies have a wonderfully deluded vision of the national prominence of their program. They speak of TAMU as if it is on par with Auburn or Wisconsin, a strong but not primary player in a major conference. The plain truth is the Aggies are much more on par with Oregon State or South Florida, recognizable programs with some success but far down on the pecking order for recruiting priority and power scheduling. I have lived in and scouted in ACC and Big Ten country, and I can attest that TAMU is largely an afterthought. By running away from Texas, they are setting themselves up for a huge mistake. Much as they would loathe to admit it, Texas A&M needs Texas in order to stay relevant. Better to be the little brother than a stepchild.
Quick prediction for the Big 12 future: Missouri flees and joins the SEC with TAMU; the rest of the Big 12 North splinters into the Big 10 and Mountain West, which lures back TCU and BYU and fills the BCS void from the Big 12; Texas takes the Oklahoma schools and Texas Tech with them to the Pac 12.
$.06--I have watched an inordinate amount of preseason football, and one of the things that I have seen needs to be addressed. There seems to be a rash of players losing their helmets during the course of normal play. I am not talking about hits to the head or facemasks being yanked; I see too many instances where a player gets hit in the chest and his helmet flies off. The officials are instructed to blow the play dead when that happens to the ball carrier, but it needs to go further. I propose that any player who loses his helmet during a play is forced to sit out the next play. This will cut down on the players who leave their chinstraps loose or wear ill-fitting helmets. And if a player loses his helmet more than once during a game, every ensuing instance results in a 5-yard penalty. If the NFL is truly serious about addressing concussions and player safety, they will quickly adopt this rule.
$.07--Fantasy football is not my forte, but I still get asked for my opinions quite a bit. Rather than going for the sleepers, here are some players that are going high in fantasy drafts that I would avoid:
-- Andre Johnson, WR, Texans: he has never topped 9 TDs in a season, and the Texans are going to run the ball more than ever before. Take him to be your #2 wideout, not your #1, especially if you are in a league that emphasizes touchdowns. He should not even be considered ahead of Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. I would not take him before Hakeem Nicks or Vincent Jackson.
-- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay: he came from out of nowhere last season, but this year defenses know who he is. The NFL is littered with running backs that burst onto the scene only to quickly fade away. Blount could be the next with his hit me running style and truculent persona.
-- DeSean Jacskon, WR, Philadelphia: As I pointed out above, I do not trust that the newfound accuracy of Vick will stick. I also worry about Jackson not having a healthy Jeremy Maclin to help ease pressure, and also the easily disgruntled personality of Jackson leaves him prone to untimely disappearing acts. Jackson strikes me as a fantasy sucker bet.
$.08--Thanks to all for the feedback on the season previews. More are coming, but because of the lockout delaying free agency and thus inhibiting roster analysis, I will not be able to complete them all for every team. There are only so many hours in the day. If you are interested in a PDF file with all of the completed reports in one place, shoot me an email at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com and I will send it out to you once a few more are complete. Look for the Ravens, Jets, Bears, Colts and Texans this week and the Saints, Browns, and Eagles next week, with the Patriots and Chiefs if time permits. That will cover every team I expect to make the playoffs in 2011, alogn with a couple of surprise teams that I predict will not.
