Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Two weeks of preseason games are now in the books, and I have had the opportunity to see every team play at least once. I have also had the chance to speak and correspond with several daily camp observers and a handful of players for their thoughts on what they are seeing with teams.
I am careful not to read too much into preseason, but at the same time some things are hard to ignore. In general, line play and the wide receiver/defensive back battles translate pretty readily from the preseason to the regular season.
Here is some of what I have seen so far:
-- The Indianapolis Colts are in trouble. Even if Peyton Manning keeps his consecutive start streak going, this is the weakest supporting cast he has had since his rookie season. They will need the defense to step up and win some games, but from what I have seen, the defense is simply not up to the task. I do expect Manning to suit up in Week 1, but the lack of any practice reps at all will show for a few weeks. Their defense just made John Beck look like, well, Peyton Manning. This is the only time those two quarterbacks will ever be mentioned in the same paragraph.
-- If you are a gambler, take the over on Detroit games. Matt Stafford looks strong, the receivers are very sharp, and they are going to throw a lot. That is because their running offense looks wretched and it goes beyond losing Mikel Leshoure. The interior OL is subpar at run blocking, Jahvid Best simply cannot stay healthy, and the running plays themselves are too slow to develop. Then there is the defense of the Lions, which has loads of blown coverages and lacks any difference makers behind the front four. That front four is awesome, but even the best defensive lines can only do so much. Expect a lot of shootouts if things persist.
-- Before you pencil in the Eagles for the Super Bowl, remember that Michael Vick caught everyone by surprise a year ago. Now teams are expecting him and have a better idea how to defend him. Pittsburgh confused the hell out of him, changing coverages and varying the pressure points. Expect to see a lot more of that, and expect it to work. And if Vick is no longer Superman, Vince Young sure as heck is not going to come to the rescue. Mike Kafka looked much more in command than Young.
-- If you are looking for a couple of rookie sleepers for your fantasy team, check out Rams TE Lance Kendricks and Jaguars WR Cecil Shorts. Both appear to be no lower than the #3 option on the passing tree and both will see the field a lot right away. If you want a deeper sleeper, Packers RB Alex Green is carving himself a nice role as the 3rd down back on an offense that throws to the back a lot on 3rd down. With all of receiving weapons Green Bay throws out there, someone is going to be open a lot, and it just might be Green.
-- It seems the taboo of quickly severing ties with recent high draft picks is going away. Pittsburgh whacked Limas Sweed, Jacksonville cut Derrick Harvey, and Buffalo axed Aaron Maybin. Two guys who could be on that list next year are Texans corner Kareem Jackson and Jets lineman Vlad Ducasse. Jackson is no better than the 5th best corner in Texans camp, while Ducasse is a slow-twitch turnstile at right tackle that dramatically reduces the likelihood that Mark Sanchez plays 16 games. One Texans coach told me Jackson "cannot run with any of our receivers, period." Considering the Texans have no one special after Andre Johnson at wideout, that is not a good sign.
-- When I visited Cleveland earlier this summer, everyone was buzzing about Colt McCoy and how great he looked. In two preseason games he has more than backed it up, showing tremendous accuracy and great command of the offense. My Browns people tell me he is hands down the best leader this franchise has had since their return, and the team believes he can lead them to greatness. Another factor in his favor: Joe Thomas is the best left tackle in the game, and the Browns have one of the best run-blocking lines as well. Young quarterbacks need comfort in the pocket and a strong running game to ease the pressure, and McCoy has both.
-- New England has a plethora of young offensive skill position talent that appears more ready to contribute than a lot of people expect. Taylor Price, Stevan Ridley and Ryan Mallett have all looked very impressive so far, while tight end Aaron Hernandez looks like he could bag 1000 yards and 10+ touchdowns in his second season. To quote Coheed and Cambria, "Here we are, juggernaut!"
-- Keeping with Coheed and Cambria songs..."The Suffering" appears to be the outlook for Panthers fans looking for a downfield passing game. Cam Newton looks nominally better than Jimmy Clausen, but neither guy has great accuracy or the ability to read coverages yet. Losing David Gettis hurts quite a bit.
-- More Coheed (did I mention I like their music?): The background music playing while I finished my 49ers season preview this morning was the song Three Evils Embodied in Love and Shadow. Honestly, I have no clue what that means, but the ending chorus is very apropos. In a cheery voice with insanely catchy guitars, Pull the trigger and the nightmare stops repeats over and over. Welcome Home, Alex Smith...
-- Tampa Bay has one of the most physically imposing offenses I have ever seen. Josh Freeman is huge for a quarterback, both starting wideouts are 6-foot-2 and at least 215, Kellen Winslow is a rocked-up 240 pound tight end, starting RB Legarrette Blount has to be pushing 250, and even the backup guys are bigger than most. They played one great game and one clunker, sort of what I expect from them in the regular season as well.
-- Normally, I am not easily swayed by one play in one preseason game, but the Rams first play from scrimmage against the Titans spoke volumes to me about those two teams heading in very opposite directions. Sam Bradford made a beautiful play fake to Steven Jackson, causing the entire Titans defense to suck in. The Rams had three receivers completely unguarded behind the defense and Bradford threw a picture-perfect bomb to Brandon Gibson for a 75-yard touchdown. St. Louis has some intriguing young weapons and a dynamic budding franchise quarterback. The Titans are in the midst of a major change, and the lack of OTAs is obviously hurting the transition time.
-- The Jets have the starters to win the AFC, but they are easily the thinnest of the notable contenders in terms of depth. Any injuries at wide receiver, along the O-line, or at linebacker and the Jets are in serious trouble. Plaxico Burress made a strong statement in his debut, which makes me feel a little better about them.
-- The early returns on Andy Dalton in Cincinnati are not pretty. He has been wild with some throws and seems easily flustered. I talked to a couple of teammates and they support him, but they are prepared for a long season. My season preview forecast has the Bengals at 7-9 but that seems awfully sunny right now.
-- The more I see of the Chargers and the more I feel around them with daily observers, the more I think they are going to make it to at least the AFC Championship game. Corey Liuget and the youngsters on the defensive line are gelling quickly, and the offense looks loaded. Again. They could win the AFC West by at least four games if they avoid their Norv Turner September Swoon. The infighting in Kansas City and the downright insane QB roulette in Denver make the Chargers the easiest division winner to forecast. And now Oakland wastes a 3rd round pick adding Terrelle Pryor, which burns a roster spot they need elsewhere for an immature, entitled project that might (might!) be ready to be the #3 QB in 2012.
