Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
RealGM Search
$.01--Randy Moss retired on Monday, apparently unable to find a team that would meet his asking price after an inglorious 2010 where he bounced from team to team. All the sports talk shows are doing the mandatory Is he a Hall of Famer discussions. I think that is hogwash; of course Randy Moss is a Hall of Fame player. He is in the very short argument of most impactful wideout ever, with Jerry Rice, Raymond Berry, and Lynn Swann (notice I said impact, not greatest) and I have little doubt Moss enters the Hall of Fame no later than his second year of eligibility. It was plainly evident to even the casual football fan that Randy Moss was playing a different and higher level than anyone else.. most of the time.
In my mind the question is instead: is Randy Moss really retired? Perhaps I am too jaded by the annual jerking of Brett Favre, or Bill Parcells and his four retirements, or Joe Gibbs re-emergence years after being elected, or the improbable comeback of Tiki Barber. Moss is only 34 and claims to be in great shape. Just two seasons ago he caught 83 passes, 13 of which went for TDs. You cannot tell me there is not a market for him now, and it will only grow as a contender suffers a key injury. I see this retirement as nothing more than a shrewd negotiating ploy with Moss attempting to coax one last big payday. He is the top receiver still on the market, superior to Braylon Edwards. So hold off on all the Hall of Fame talk, because Randy Moss is not done playing yet. It would not surprise me if he plays two more seasons, and I like his chances to have a strong comeback season somewhere in 2011.. somewhere like Philadelphia.
$.02--Those Philadelphia Eagles continue to win the offseason in dramatic fashion, signing Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, Jason Babin, Ronnie Brown and Vince Young in the past few days. This orgy of free agent gluttony has posited them as media darlings and no worse than co-favorites to win the NFC. And on paper, there is no real way to argue that point.
But NFL games are not played on paper, and for all the firepower and notoriety the Eagles have garnered lately, they still have some very exploitable weaknesses. Count me firmly entrenched in the camp that believes Vince Young has no business left in the NFL, and he is now one tweaked hammy from Michael Vick away from running the show. There is a reason why none of the QB-desperate teams offered Young even a token make-good contract, and the dropoff from Kevin Kolb as the #2 to Vince Young will be dramatic. Considering the long history of injury issues to Vick, that is more of a concern than I think most analysts are espousing.
I also have concerns about the offensive line, though the Ryan Harris signing that took place about 10 minutes before I submitted this column helps mitigate my fears. Somewhat. Jason Peters has been a disappointment at left tackle, struggling with both injuries and motivational issues. Jamaal Jackson is penciled in as the starting center a year after missing almost the entire season, and Mike McGlynn was only serviceable as his replacement. I am a big fan of rookie RG Danny Watkins, but he is an unproven rookie nonetheless. The depth up front is very substandard.
Then there is the delicate issue of ego and chemistry. A lot of newcomers have been showered with a lot of money. Dynamic receiver DeSean Jackson rightly wonders, Where is mine?! His holdout will likely end quickly, but he is not a guy with a short memory or a propensity to forgive and forget. With the other starting wideout, Jeremy Maclin, still fighting to get back from a nasty case of mono that cost him 15 pounds and about three months of conditioning, the passing offense might not be up to snuff. The #3 wideout is Riley Cooper and his 7 career receptions. Factor in the occasional wildness of Vick--and I am not convinced that is behind him--and these Eagles are not the unstoppable juggernaut so many are making them out to be. And I have not even mentioned the linebacking corps.
$.03--Quickies:
--The New York Jets, not resting on their laurels as an also-ran in the Asomugha derby, made some noise by signing wideout Plaxico Burress from the prison release program. They also brought back Antonio Cromartie, the corner they desperately wanted Asomugha to replace. The oblivious Cromartie was apparently happy to return after realizing nobody else would pay him more. I like the gamble on Plax, but I am worried the Cromartie experience is not going to end well.
--Every day that Kyle Orton remains a member of the Denver Broncos makes me believe a little more that they will be the worst team in the AFC in 2011. He is obviously the superior QB but obviously not going to get the job from Tim Tebow. A team with that sort of schism cannot succeed.
--The Saints scored a big gain by signing Aubrayo Franklin. He and Sedrick Ellis are a great interior D-line combo that will give the Saints defense more teeth.
--The Nick Fairley experience is off to a terrible start with Detroit. After showing up not in football shape, Fairley allegedly has a stress fracture in his foot and is in a walking boot. He was already near the top of my list for biggest bust, and this development only validates my sadness that my Lions rolled the dice on Nick Fairley.
--RIP Korey Stringer. I remember hearing the news of his death 10 years ago while driving near his hometown of Warren, Ohio and how angry it made me that the old-school culture of football needlessly and shamefully took the life of such a vibrant and warm person.
$.04--Peyton Manning signed a fat new contract while he sits out training camp recovering from neck surgery. If that seems a bit contradictory to you, you are not alone.
Early last season I pointed out that Manning was slipping ever so slightly. Unmistakably, Peyton Manning is still an amazing QB and fully capable of winning another MVP award. But at 35 and with two neck surgeries, there is valid reason to question how effective he can be going forward. His offensive line is still iffy, his running game support nonexistent, and his receiving corps less dynamic than at any point since he was handing the ball to Marshall Faulk. The Colts need him to be Superman every minute of every offensive drive. That is a lot to put on the shoulders of an aging star with a bad neck.
All that put the Colts in a bit of a quandary. Manning clearly deserves to be among the highest-paid players in the league, but tying him up for the long term appears increasingly risky. That the Colts have not spent much to get help indicates Manning will continue to bear the biggest burden of any team-sport athlete in recent memory. His durability is legendary, but all great things must come to an end. The Colts had better hope they did not stick out their own necks too far for the neck of Manning.
$.05--The Chicago Bears are spending the offseason shopping at the Dumpster behind the local Dollar General. In the past week they have signed five, count them, five former first round picks released by other teams for gross underperformance. Vernon Gholston, Chris Spencer, Roy Williams, Marion Barber and Amobi Okoye all washed out of their prior situations for various reasons, and now all are looking for redemption in Chicago.
This is a far cry from last offseason, when the Bears aggressively bought the best defensive player on the market (Julius Peppers) and spent big $$ on a #2 running back (Chester Taylor) and #3 tight end (Brandon Manumaleuna), plus signing Jay Cutler to a fat extension. GM Jerry Angelo has abruptly changed course, going from filet mignon to tube steak. That is not to say that tube steak cannot make for some tasty meals, however.
I like the chances of both former Cowboys, Williams and Barber. Williams was very good in the Mike Martz offense during their time together with the Lions, and his size is a welcome addition to a receiving corps almost completely devoid of height. Barber can still pound between the tackles and pick up the tough short yardage conversions, though his gas tank is nearing empty. It was a low-risk signing that will try to eke one more year from a 28-year old that is also a very good receiver and pass protector. At worst he is a significant upgrade over Garrett Wolfe as the third down back, even if he cannot run through the wall he appeared to smack into last year in Dallas.
I also like the Amobi Okoye signing, particularly because the primary knock on the youngster is that someone needs to light a fire under his butt. If Rod Marinelli cannot light that fire, it cannot be lit with a tanker full of kerosene. Okoye desperately needs a strong motivator that can also teach him proper technique, neither of which he ever got in Houston. Just 24 but with over 60 career starts, Okoye is a prime candidate to become a classic late-bloomer in Chicago. Gholston still has potential as well, but I am less optimistic the notorious Jets bust will pan out.
That almost makes up for the curious other moves from Angelo. Almost. Trading starting TE Greg Olsen to the Panthers for a mid-round pick weakens the passing game, even though there was no way the Bears were going to pay him what he will demand next summer as a free agent. Losing veteran center Olin Kreutz over a petty dispute and about $500K is the sort of move that has doomed the Raiders and Redskins to prolonged malaise. Kreutz may be at the very end of his career, but he was markedly better than Spencer last year and was the clear leader of the offense. And nobody will ever mistake Matt Spaeth for Olsen, even if the Bears go blue in the face telling you he fits better in their offense. I think the net result of their moves fails to make the Bears a stronger contender in a suddenly top-heavy NFC.
