Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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A couple of weeks ago I tackled the offense, and now that a new CBA appears to be done within the next couple of days, it is now time for some defense.
The pickings are a little slimmer on this side of the ball, but there are some significant impact players that could make the difference for a marginal playoff team. There are also some solid starters and some pretty good fits for certain schemes, even if few will break the bank. Corner is by far the deepest position.
DT:
Cullen Jenkins--Green Bay probably cannot afford to bring him back at his expected asking price, and with the depth they (hope they) have up front, he unlikely to return to the Super Bowl champs. Jenkins can play in either a 3 or 4 man front and has enough of a track record to merit a large contract. A whole host of teams should have interest, with Carolina and Seattle both having ample cap room and pressing need for his services. Washington makes sense too, if Daniel Snyder isn not gun-shy about big-ticket free agent defensive tackles after the Albert Haynesworth fiasco.
Richard Seymour--he is the rare Raider that has thrived in the unique football climate and provided excellent leadership. Al Davis loves him, the coaches love him, and for his part Seymour sure seems happy in the East Bay. Expect the former franchise player to get franchise-tag money for a longer deal and remain in Oakland, though the Patriots sure do miss him...perhaps enough to break the bank to bring him back?
Brandon Mebane--one of the best NFL players you have probably never heard of. Mebane has quietly become a Pro Bowl-caliber 3-technique in Seattle with exceptional leverage and decent quickness to the ball. He missed some time last year with a knee injury which dampens his value a little, and the Seahawks have a lot of potential cap room to keep him in the fold. He is a perfect fit for Chicago or Tampa Bay and their classic Tampa-2 defensive schemes. The Browns and Saints will have interest as well.
Aubrayo Franklin--the best true nose tackle on the open market, assuming the Ravens (his former team) lock up Haloti Ngata, which is widely expected to be a foregone conclusion. Franklin has played very well in San Francisco, and his ability to play the 0-technique makes him mighty attractive to any 3-4 team looking for beef in the middle. The Niners would love to keep him, but his enmity about getting tagged last year could force a departure. Teams making a transition to a 3-4 like Houston or Buffalo would be great fits for the right price.
Anthony Adams--not the sexiest name on the Bears defense, but Adams has been a solid contributor at the 1-technique. They drafted Stephen Paea to take over that role, which means Adams will likely wind up as a solid fallback option for the teams that lose out on any of the above guys. His affordability makes him attractive to teams like Cleveland (switching to a 4-3) or Minnesota.
Clifton Ryan--regressed in 2010 with some medical issues, but prior to that Ryan was a solid starter with good run-stuffing ability. He is still young and will not break the bank, which will allow more thrifty teams like Carolina or Denver to pick up a serviceable starter at a reasonable price.
Going deep:
Matt Toeiana--I have always liked what he has shown in limited duty. Nice inexpensive low-risk/reward plugger.
Ron Edwards--It sounds like Kansas City wants him back even though he is better-suited to play in a 4-man front.
Andre Fluellen--another youngster with some juice but no room on the depth chart of his current team (Detroit). Could be Chicago bound to reunite with the man that drafted him, Rod Marinelli.
Gabe Watson/Alan Branch--both are hefty former Cardinals from Michigan that have been largely disappointing. One will probably stick in Arizona (likely Branch), but both will take advantage of the dearth of quality nose tackles and get overpaid to underwhelm. If healthy, Branch still has breakout potential.
DE:
Charles Johnson--I am not going to say he filled the shoes of Julius Peppers in Carolina, but Johnson did get more sacks that the man he replaced and was arguably better against the run as well. I am told the Panthers have him as their #1 priority this offseason--as he should be. Division rivals Atlanta and Tampa Bay would be great fits should he choose to fly the coop, but I expect him to stay in Charlotte.
Cliff Avril--one of the 4-year vets that really benefits from the new CBA (assuming the deal frees people in his status), Avril has outplayed his decent sack numbers and is one of the fastest players around the corner in the league. The Lions want to keep him and should have the cap room to do so, but he will find suitors in places like Tennessee and Seattle. He could be wooed by a 3-4 team like the Jets or Dolphins interested in converting him to OLB as well, which would raise his payday beyond where Detroit would feel comfortable stroking checks.
Jason Babin--he finally had the year the Texans expected of him when they took him in the first round...in 2004. Now the Titans sack leader last season (with 12.5) is a certified journeyman with one fantastic career season in a free agent year on a lousy team. For some reason, guys with that sort of resume typically wind up in Oakland or San Francisco; every so often it works, but mostly it gets you nothing more than an overpriced average starter like Nate Clements or Tommy Kelly. With Brandon Graham out for the season in Philly, a short-term return to the Eagles could be in the works.
Mathias Kiwanuka--his gruesome leg injury and neck injury last season make him a significant injury risk, but Kiwanuka is a dynamic edge rusher that can also play OLB if he is healthy. For a hybrid defense like San Diego or Buffalo, he could make a nice investment. There are reports that the Giants want to keep him for an incentive-heavy short term deal, but he will probably find greener pastures elsewhere. The injury flag is pretty orange, however.
Ray Edwards--solid complementary left-side pass rusher that is a good soldier and will not get you killed against the run. The Vikings have never fully appreciated him despite using the first-round tender (now a moot point) on him, which means Edwards will likely find a higher-paying suitor elsewhere. The Vikings essentially chose the man he split reps with, Brian Robison, even though Edwards is the better all-around player. New Orleans and Atlanta make sense, but really any 4-3 team that needs help at end should have interest.
Going deep:
Turk McBride--played well as the replacement to the aforementioned Avril last year but is the victim of a numbers game in Detroit, especially if Avril returns. Functional rotation player that will not rock the boat.
Robaire Smith--savvy vet and locker room asset has fought injuries for several years, but can still help in a rotation. Browns want to keep him, but his experience in a 3-4 could portend a trip to Houston or KC.
Wallace Gilberry--productive nickel rusher, but has remained a nickel rusher because he is dreadful against the run. Someone can use his seven sacks, and it probably is not the Chiefs.
Mark Anderson--still earning a living off a breakout rookie season, before offenses solved his one move. The switch to a 3-4 for Houston means he will be available to a 40 front team needing a nickel rusher
Dave Tollefson--aside from me chronically mistaking him for Megadeth bassist Dave Ellefson, Tollefson has played well enough in reserve action to score a more prominent role elsewhere. Maybe St. Louis?
Dave Ball--the feel-good story has become a pretty good player, one the Titans would be wise to lock up.
LB:
LaMarr Woodley--nobody thinks he is going anywhere, but the Steelers do not overpay to keep anyone. Woodley is one of the best OLBs in the league and will get a contract that reflects it...in Pittsburgh.
Paul Posluszny--injuries have marred his career, but he is a tackling machine with experience playing inside in both a 3-4 and a 4-3. Buffalo wants to keep him, but the NFC team in New York has not hidden its admiration and gives him a better chance to win for the same money.
Barrett Ruud--undersized but incredibly active and astute, Ruud is a reliable starting MLB that can make all the calls and gives 100% all the time. But he does not produce turnovers and declined some last year, which probably punches his ticket out of Tampa. He fits great in Detroit or Tennessee, both of which should be considered potential landing spots for every backer that fits a 4-3 scheme.
James Anderson--had a breakout year in a contract season on a lousy team after several up-and-down campaigns. Carolina wants to keep him and he has more upside and long-term value than fellow free agent teammate Thomas Davis. Look for Anderson to score a fat new deal to stay with the Panthers and Davis--one of the fastest LBs in the league--to follow former coach John Fox to Denver.
Keith Bulluck--the aging vet sure does not appear to be in the plans of the Giants, but he has enough left in the tank to be an adequate band-aid for a needy team like Detroit. The Lions have not been shy about their courtship and Bulluck winding up anywhere else would be a surprise.
Justin Durant--I will quote an opposing coach on Durant: "Plays at 100 miles an hour but does not have any side-view mirrors." Another backer that has been linked to Detroit, and probably prematurely so. The Saints and Colts could be in the mix, and Durant will probably not get the type of deal he wants.
Going deep:
Ben Leber--underappreciated talent that the Vikings need more than he needs them. He knows that, and they will have to pay for it if they want him back.
Kirk Morrison--proved Al Davis was right to let him go from Oakland with a lackluster season in JAX. Another case where the team needs him more than he needs them, and they will have to outbid other suitors (KC? PHI?) to get Morrison back.
Manny Lawson--every year Niners fans have peppered me with "it is the time for Manny Lawson" comments, and every year they have been wrong. Now he gets to disappoint another fan base, perhaps down the coast in San Diego.
Ernie Sims--see the above comment about Justin Durant, though Sims is more established. Tampa makes a lot of sense for Sims, but do not rule out the Bears.
Matt Roth--experienced, semi-productive 3-4 OLB that will not be back in Cleveland. Kansas City and Dallas will have interest.
Stephen Nicholas--Falcons will not overpay to keep the consummate professional #4 LB in a 4-3 set. Fits in Oakland or New York.
CB:
Nnamdi Asomugha--the best free agent on the market regardless of position. Already the highest-paid corner, expect Asomugha to become the highest-paid defensive player with a $19-20M per year deal with either Houston or Philadelphia, with Detroit and Oakland in the mix as well. Forget the Packers or Jets talk.
Champ Bailey--still has a lot to offer even though he is past his prime. Denver wants him back, and he probably should take them up on their offer. A return to Washington has been rumored, and he fits the old Daniel Snyder profile of egregiously overpaying for fading stars.
Jonathan Joseph--one of the best #2 CBs in the league, though his subpar 2010 season likely cost him some cash. I have heard he is the fallback plan of the Lions on Asomugha, but teams that value aggression from their corners will line up with open checkbooks. Would be ideal in Baltimore.
Antonio Cromartie--lightning rod player is probably done with the Jets. Has elite skills at times, but sorely lacks discipline and freelances too much for a lot of coaches. That makes him cheaper, which could portend a trip to Tennessee or San Francisco. Seattle is in the market for a top-tier corner and will have a lot of cap room to attract one. Joseph fits them better but Cromartie is flashier, and Pete Carroll has been known to be attracted to more sizzle than steak.
Richard Marshall--a very good bet to follow John Fox from Carolina to Denver, though the Panthers are apparently warmer on bringing him back than I first thought.
Ike Taylor--Steelers fans are preternaturally negative towards Taylor, but he is much more likely to stay in Pittsburgh than fellow free agent corner William Gay. Taylor fits the scheme well and learned from longtime running mate Bryant McFadden that staying in the black and yellow counts for some cash sacrifice. Gay belongs in the "going deep" section as one of the better nickel backs on the market.
Going deep:
Brent Grimes--heretofore average player that had a career year in a contract season on a very good team. He will be shown the money, and Atlanta would like him back. He will find other suitors, including Seattle and the losers of the Asomugha derby.
Chris Houston--really thrived in Detroit, which would love to have him back. Fits the Colts profile well, should they choose to open the checkbook a little.
Carlos Rogers--one of the most frustratingly inconsistent players in the league. Washington has apparently decided to move on, which means some other team will get the schizophrenic Rogers, at times a legit #1 corner but at times you wonder how he makes an active roster. Oakland?
Brandon Carr--the "other" Brandon in KC has been a decent small-school find. Good lower-budget option, and the Chiefs have enough young depth at corner to let him walk if they choose.
Josh Wilson--after a few uneven years, really emerged in his short stint in Baltimore. The Ravens want to keep him; we shall see how loyal he is.
Drayton Florence--does not fit with the Bills, but a team needing a veteran nickel back could do far worse. Miami and Arizona make sense.
Jason Allen--was the best corner on the Texans last year once he arrived from Miami, where he was a long-term bust. His size will get him a better deal than you think somewhere.
Going real deep:
Corey Graham--excellent special teamer that can swing from safety to slot corner capably. Guys like that are more valuable than you might think, and Graham is the cream of that crop. San Diego needs about 3 of him.
Justin King--if he is ever able to stay healthy...
Safety:
Eric Weddle--that Weddle, a swing strong/free safety that ranks as a middle-of-the-pack starter, is perhaps the best safety on the market tells you all you need to know about this class. He will benefit, and it almost certainly will not be in San Diego. Good fit for Houston, particularly if they miss on Asomugha.
Atari Bigby--has been decent when he has been healthy, but that has not been often enough to keep him in Green Bay. Could wind up playing in another bay area, either Tampa or San Francisco.
Bernard Pollard--very good in run support, but he just might be the worst safety in coverage in the NFL over the last decade. His leadership and ability in the box will land him somewhere as a starter. A return to his Indy home has been discussed.
Dawan Landry--like Pollard, a very good run defender with serious issues in coverage, particularly over the top. Is not as noisy as Pollard, which gives him value to veteran-laden teams like San Diego or Seattle. His former DC Rex Ryan might want him in the fold with the Jets too.
Roman Harper--yet another strong safety that excels against the run but has his struggles in coverage. Harper is more balanced and has a proven knack for big plays. Expect him to let the Saints match any offer, and they would be wise to do so.
Going deep:
Abram Elam--good candidate to remain in Cleveland, but expect Parcells coaching tree teams (NE, MIA, HOU, KC) to have interest as well.
Chinedum Ndukwe--has great size but peaked as a rookie a few years back, and is coming off a nasty knee injury. Good low-risk reclamation project, which the Lions and Cowboys both seem to love.
Charlie Peprah--marginal contributor to Super Bowl champ that will parlay that into a richer deal than he deserves. He does not suck though.
Gerald Sensabaugh--has never met expectations but did grab 5 picks last year and is still young enough to have growth potential. Probably will not return to Dallas.
Deon Grant--mistakenly believes he is still starting material, which means he is likely to sign after the season starts as an injury replacement.
