Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01--Last Friday’s expected court decision came and went with no decision that advances anything towards a settlement or final conclusion. The real development from the last week is the “secret” meeting in Chicago attended by several prominent owners and players but no lawyers, which is a very encouraging sign of tangible progress. Taking these two vicissitudes together, I am more optimistic that we will have uninterrupted football come September, though perhaps a week or two later than expected.
I base that on the fact that both sides tried to keep the meeting a secret, and that both sides seemed somewhat dismayed at how perfunctory the hired gun lawyers were handling their impending court presentations. The NFL and the players both had guest presenters to the courts, not their own legal eagles, and I think the removal of emotion from the court arguments probably made the leadership on both sides realize just how ridiculous taking this fight all the way to a court-mandated solution truly is. The sides met again on Tuesday and, to quote the magic 8-ball, all signs point to yes.
The negotiations primarily center on the overall percentage of revenues given to the players, and what all goes into that revenue pot. All the ancillary stuff--rookie wage scale, retired player benefits, free agency rules, guaranteed money in contracts--is secondary window dressing. I have long proposed that the players receive 51.5% of total revenues, with 2% of that given directly to a retired players fund. That would leave the active players getting almost exactly half the total revenue. Get it done, gentlemen!
$.02--I spent a few days in Las Vegas last week, and I felt it critical to my job to personally investigate several sports books and do some research on the NFL betting lines. Alas, because of the lockout and the delay of free agency, the only odds available are for winning the next Super Bowl. I’m normally a large proponent of betting on season win total over/under lines, but that’s yet another facet of my life that the NFL and the NFLPA have ruined with their nonsensical labor fight.
Back to the books. A few lines caught my eye, namely the fact that the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers are not the odds-on favorite to win next year. Obviously it is terribly difficult to repeat as champs, but no team since the Patriots actually accomplished the feat has appeared in better shape to make it happen. Yet Green Bay sits at 5/1 or 6/1 (depending on the book) either tied with or slightly behind the Patriots. New England, you might recall, has not won a playoff game since after the 2007 season and at least 13 of their starters have 3 years or less of experience. Pittsburgh, a team that has won one Super Bowl and just lost another, goes off at 10/1; the New York Jets, who have lost the last two AFC Championship games and wiped the field with the Patriots in the playoffs last year, are at 8/1 to 10/1. I understand the books are trying to get more people to lay more money on those other teams, but this is ridiculous. It’s one thing to court bets from the east coast myopians, but it’s another to disregard both logic and rationality.
Some other teams caught my eye as being decent value bets or intriguing lines. I like the New York Giants at 20/1, though at another book they were at just 16/1. San Diego was between 10/1 and 12/1, which is tempting for the team with both the #1 offense and #1 defense and so many critical pieces in their prime years. My beloved Detroit Lions were at 25/1, easily the best odds for them since before Matt Millen peed in the water cooler; they haven’t been less than 125/1 to start a season since 2002. I found it a little curious that the Atlanta Falcons, last year’s #1 seed in the NFC, opened at 8/1 to 10/1 but are now at 12/1 to 15/1 despite adding arguably the most dynamic weapon in the draft. I find it strange that the clearly rebuilding Minnesota Vikings are going off at 40 /1, the same as defending AFC West champion Kansas City, clearly a better overall team with much higher immediate upside. Meanwhile, the defending NFC West champion Seahawks go off at 100/1 at best, lower than both the Rams (35/1 to 40/1, which seem about right) and 49ers (65/1 to 80/1, which seem optimistic for a team with no QB and a complete schematic overhaul on offense) and the same as the Cardinals at several books. Those Cardinals are enticing, and if I had both the bankroll and the spousal permission I would drop a $100 wager on them. Give that team a viable starting QB like Kevin Kolb or Kyle Orton and a bounce-back year for their defense and there is no question in my mind that is the best team in the NFC West and a legit NFC contender.
$.03--Plaxico Burress is a free man once again. In the context of the NFL, he is also a free agent. Once players are able to sign with teams, the suitors will come after Plax with what will certainly be safe, low-end contracts for his services. His agent, Drew Rosenhaus, has intimated he expects a bidding war and interestingly (to me anyway) was the man who picked up Plax from prison and enthusiastically greeted the criminal. A man spends over a year in prison and the person that picks him up isn’t family or a former teammate but rather the agent that failed him by not using the 6% he gleaned from Plax to protect him from himself? Guilty conscience, Drew…
Because literally nothing else is going on in the NFL right now, hours of talk radio programming is being devoted to Plax’s hat choice upon his release. In case you missed it, he was wearing an old-school Philadelphia Phillies hat, the one with a script “P” on it. Many are interpreting this as a signal from Plax (and Rosenhaus, who most certainly is not above this sort of tactic) that he wants to sign with the Eagles. Philly happens to need a tall possession wideout like Plax, and then there’s the whole “they rehabbed Michael Vick successfully from prison” angle, so it’s not like this comes from left field, but I think people are reading way too much into his hat. Knowing Plax, it’s far more likely the “P” stands for “Plaxico”, or “Prison”, or “Phillies” as known by Cypress Hill.
So where will Plaxico wind up? I’ve heard all the rumors, but here are two that make the most sense to me. St. Louis is coached by a former Giant known as a disciplinarian in Steve Spagnuolo and desperately needs a wideout with size and experience. He is perfect for their needs and the price tag figures to be right. The other place is Cleveland, also sorely in need of a WR with size and experience. As a Cleveland native I can safely assure Plax’s parole officer that Berea, Ohio (where the Browns train) is not an easy place to find any kind of trouble or action. Heck, even downtown Cleveland is devoid of the kind of clubs that Plax would frequent or feel the need to pack heat in.
$.04--The Terrelle Pryor saga moves onward, as the embattled QB is no longer a member of The Ohio State University football team. This is nothing but a positive for both the university at large and the football team, though his shadow of misdeeds could continue to harm both for years to come. Now Pryor will attempt to enter the NFL Supplemental Draft, assuming there is one, or perhaps take his talents north of the border and give the CFL a shot.
So how does Pryor rate as a prospect? I’ve seen every snap of his college career and really started breaking down his NFL prospects at the start of last season. A quick check back of some previous columns reveals my mixed thoughts on his NFL prospects. Among the quotes I’ve written on Pryor:
“Can really throw a great deep ball”
“Might be the fastest guy in the country in the open field”
“It doesn’t look like he is in sync with the rest of the team. He looks like he is a count behind quite a bit and tries to use his athleticism to compensate.”
“Got into a great rhythm and every pass was right on the money. You could see the confidence growing.”
“Forced a couple of throws that a good high school JV QB knows are bad decisions.”
“Once again Pryor was not reading from the same book as the rest of the offense.”
My overall scouting report seems a lot like Cam Newton, only with three years of game tape instead of one. Pryor is an elite athlete and a pretty good passer, probably better than his critics think he is. He is very dangerous with his legs and is probably the fastest player (regardless of position) that I’ve ever seen from yard 20 to yard 40 with his long stride and strong feet. Accuracy and touch are inconsistent but are often very good. He’s played more under center than almost every recent QB prospect and is very good with his footwork on his drops. He does push the ball on shorter throws and has a tendency to improvise, and when he does so he often makes terrible decisions. He is not the charismatic leader that Newton is, and in fact I’ve found him to be almost an island amongst his teammates. It reminds me of Jimmy Clausen at Notre Dame; the teammates respect his talent but he is most certainly not one of the guys and doesn’t appear to care to try and be one. That is a huge detriment to his future, because NFL teammates are likely to view him with skepticism and Pryor has too much ego to thaw that tension. At times I thought Pryor was at least equal to Cam Newton, but Pryor lacks the magnanimous leadership and coachability that allowed teams to overlook some of Newton’s faults. I wouldn’t take him before the 3rd round in the supplemental draft, and I would consider transforming him into a Vernon Davis-like slot tight end, where I think Pryor could be an elite weapon.
$.05--An old friend and respected sports radio host passed away on Monday. Papa Joe Chevalier died from complications from a recent stroke at age 62. I was a weekly guest on Papa Joe’s show for the better part of 3 years, and he was a true professional as a host. He knew when to let me run with a topic but also when to rein me back in if I started rambling incessantly or incoherently, which I tend to do. He made me a much better guest and I am forever appreciative of him giving me a much wider forum. I still get emails from readers that I acquired as a result of being on his show, many of whom have become very good and frequent correspondents.
I’ll never forget coming on his show the day after his beloved Steelers beat the Cardinals for the Super Bowl. The entire segment before my spot, he was doing a radio victory lap with callers who were fellow Steelers fans, but I knew he was going to ask me to try and provide a more balanced breakdown of the game. We wound up having a great give-and-take about so many key plays that would have turned the game to a different outcome, and he was not a homer for Pittsburgh in the least. You could tell he was still a fan, but he wasn’t blind to how great Darnell Dockett played or how close Arizona was to pulling it out.
Rest in peace, Armand Chevalier. The sports talk radio world was a better place with you in it.
