Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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This is the mock I do every year for fun and posterity. In no way, shape, or form does this reflect what I think will happen during the actual draft next week. These are the picks I would make for the given teams in the given situations. Hopefully this sheds some light on what players I believe are over- and undervalued come draft day.
1. Carolina Panthers: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
I am very impressed at how Green's dynamic presence altered Georgia's offense. Without him they were a bumbling, nondescript unit; with him, they threatened every defense. He made a pedestrian college QB look very good. With Steve Smith on the way out sooner than later, Green would give whomever winds up as their long-term QB answer a legit #1 target and a much better chance for success.
2. Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.
For a team that realistically needs nine new defensive starters over the next two years, they shouldn't worry about logistics; they need talent, period. Peterson has talent, period. Giving him a year or two with Brian Dawkins would be invaluable.
3. Buffalo Bills: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.
This pick transcends the football field, as the Bills need to make a splash to show the world that Buffalo can remain a viable NFL city. Newton is the kind of presence and polarizing figure that brings massive amounts of attention, not to mention tremendous potential. I liken it to LeBron James 'saving' the Cavaliers, obviously with some mixed endgame results. I am a believer that Newton is going to succeed in the NFL.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.
Fairley has an extremely high bust risk, but if any team can make it work for him, it's Marvin Lewis' Bengals. He and Domata Peko together would present major problems between the tackles for offenses, which is where I believe the new hot trend for defenses to attack is heading. Fairley is markedly better on tape than last year's #3 pick Gerald McCoy and they are very stylistically similar.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M.
I choose Miller because I strongly believe the Cardinals are going to find their QB from the veteran market and not risk it (again) with a rookie. Miller is a great fit for their defense and is far more than just a pass rusher. I consider him the safest pick in the draft, and the Cardinals need a sure thing.
6. Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.
His nearly chronic presence on the injury report worries me a little, but I love what Jones offers to Cleveland's punchless passing offense. He can reliably get open on shorter routes and is a major weapon with the ball in his hands. He's also the best blocking WR to hit the league in years and is a proven clutch player in big games.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina.
Most people (myself included) point to Alex Smith as the big problem recently, but teams have won with similar QB play if they had a more potent defense. Quinn brings the speed and size off the edge and I like his maturity. Bolstering the pass rush will help this defense more than any DB could ever do.
This is a little higher than I'd like to see Gabbert ideally go, but this would allow him to sit behind Kerry Collins for a year and get more ready to take the reins. Of the QB-needy teams, they are in the best shape to take a developmental guy and actually let him develop.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College.
He's more ready to plug and play than Tyron Smith, and I like that he can play every spot but center. This is a franchise that has the weapons to win right now, and Castonzo can handle that pressure on his shoulders.
10. Washington Redskins: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.
I think Dareus is going to be a pretty good player, not a great player. That's why I don't take him any higher than this, but he makes sense for the Skins, who need a whole lot more pretty good players at the expense of a couple great players and a lot of strikeouts.
11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri.
This is another spot where the team is forced to reach a little to get a position of dire need. Everyone blamed the secondary, and it was pretty lousy, but the lack of any consistent pass rush exacerbated their crappiness. I have reservations about Smith but the Texans need to take a chance in order to ever get rewarded.
The 2010 version was the best defensive player in a stacked Big Ten, and he's kept the weight off and stamina up. Liuget has the ability to seamlessly slide into the rotation and take on a bigger role as needed.
13. Detroit Lions: Danny Watkins, G/T, Baylor.
Nearly every talent evaluator actually employed for NFL teams believes his advanced age and maturity are major assets. The Lions have a hole at guard and need to get Matt Stafford better protection to protect their heavy investment. Watkins grades out higher than any tackle, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could make a good starting RT either.
14. St. Louis Rams: Cameron Jordan, DE, California.
I believe Jordan has the size and skillset to handle playing right end on normal downs and then slide inside with the nickel/dime packages. His bright personality is a good locker room fit.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida.
No, he's not his twin brother. Mike is more of a grinder and brawler than Maurkice, and he's a better fit at guard than center. Miami happens to need both, or else it won't matter who is playing RB. No collegian handled Fairley or Dareus better.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue.
Jacksonville is another team that would benefit by erring on the side of caution and getting a B+ player for a decade rather than swinging for an A and winding up with a D. Pencil in Kerrigan for 8-10 sacks and an above-average number of tackles for a defensive end every year, something the Jaguars can sorely use.
17. New England Patriots (from OAK): JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin.
Watt has the same kind of persona and drive as former Patriot Mike Vrabel. He even can play TE too (he started college as a Central Michigan TE), as Vrabel often did. His high-effort, strong all-around game makes him an excellent fit for Team Hoodie.
18. San Diego Chargers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
I'll admit it--I'm scared of his knee issues and how he really only had about eight good college games in three years. But I also love his burst and power on the edge, and he has the bulk to play with his hand in the dirt as a 5-technique. The Chargers ranked #1 in both offense and defense, so they can afford the health risk.
19. New York Giants: Tyron Smith, T, USC.
The OL has been steadily regressing, and the few recent attempts to build it have largely flopped. Smith can play both right and left tackle, and he's proven he can handle the weight gain. My biggest worry is that he gained nearly 30 pounds in less than three months and kept that physique, coming from a school that produced Brian Cushing. Just sayin..
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA.
This is another case where the player goes much higher than I have him rated. Ayers gets the nod here because he's a playmaker, and this defense needs home run hitters more than it needs doubles hitters. I like his ability and experience in coverage to fit with the Bucs defense. Note that if Aqib Talib winds up in prison--and he might--I'd take Prince Amukamara here.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor.
The agile behemoth will be as good as he wants to be, and I like the concept of having Romeo Crennel coaching him up under Todd Haley as sort of a good cop/bad cop mentorship. Last year's draft nicely stocked the periphery; this year's class must build the core.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Ben Ijalana, T, Villanova.
I trust him the most of the remaining tackles to function as a pass protection-first left sider right away. I see the window closing on this team, but giving Manning more time and comfort keeps it more than cracked open. Don't worry about him coming from the CAA--it's better football than the MAC or WAC.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.
For my money, Smith is the best cover man in this draft before the ball is thrown. With Asante Samuel making plays on the other side, Philly needs that more than they need a ballhawk. Any locker room that can handle DeSean Jackson's act can handle Jimmy Smith just fine.
24. New Orleans Saints: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin.
Lost in all the RB injuries was the decline of the offensive line, particularly the right side. Carimi is the best run blocker of the tackle class, and the Saints need his surliness at right tackle. My worries about his balance in pass protect are mitigated by having Drew Brees under center.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Prince Amukamara, CB/S, Nebraska.
I know I'm in the minority, but I'm not a big fan of Amukamara. I do think he'll make a solid starter for a long time, and I think a system where he's challenged and pushed like Pete Carroll does will do him well. I'm real tempted to take Ryan Williams or Mark Ingram, but this team needs durability more than talent, and neither guy has the former despite having a lot of the latter.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State.
I've said it before, but it bears repeating: Heyward is an Ozzie Newsome kind of guy. Any doubts about his effort will be beaten away by Ray Lewis, and Heyward has always played better in big games, a trait not shared by all his future Ravens mates.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy.
His durability is an issue, but the shifty Jernigan is the ideal complementary weapon to Roddy White. The Falcons want more dynamic playmakers, and that's Jernigan, who can reliably get open underneath and is Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin-like with the ball in space.
28. New England Patriots: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech.
Williams has his negatives, but his positives--explosive burst, great vision, shifty power, long speed--are exactly what this offense needs from the RB position. The chronic RB-by-committee in New England mitigates his propensity for getting hurt.
29. Chicago Bears: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina.
This will probably draw ire from the Windy City faithful, but this pick is more long-term than short-term. Carter has a lot of Lance Briggs to his game, and both Briggs and Brian Urlacher are on the wrong side of 30. This defense does not work without great linebackers, and Carter could be a great one once his leg fully heals.
30. New York Jets: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina.
Austin has some major flags for character but also some serious (though pretty raw) talent. I like the concept of him going to a team with a strong identity and a tight locker room, and the Jets have that. They have to address the DL big-time.
This pick will either look incredibly prescient or foolish, depending on if Dowling can stay healthy. If he can, he's the best corner in this draft not named Peterson. His size and chase speed are elite and he can make plays all over the field. But his durability is a major question.
32. Green Bay Packers: Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State.
I'm a little scared of his weight gain and inability to handle it, but he was the best offensive lineman during Senior Bowl week practices. I like that every division opponent plays a 4-3 defense, which plays to Hudson's strengths as a center.
Round 2
33. New England Patriots (from CAR): Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State
34. Buffalo Bills: Justin Houston, DE/LB, Georgia
35. Cincinnati Bengals: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
36. Denver Broncos: Sam Acho, DE/LB, Texas
37. Cleveland Browns: Will Rackley, G/T, Lehigh
38. Arizona Cardinals: Marcus Cannon, G/T, TCU
39. Tennessee Titans: Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada
40. Dallas Cowboys: Muhammad Wilkerson, DL, Temple
41. Washington Redskins: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
42. Houston Texans: Titus Young, WR/RS, Boise State
43. Minnesota Vikings: Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
44. Detroit Lions: Josh Thomas, CB, Buffalo
45. San Francisco 49ers: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
46. Denver Broncos (from MIA): Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
47. St. Louis Rams: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
48. Oakland Raiders: Nate Solder, T, Colorado
49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State
50. San Diego Chargers: Marcus Gilchrist, S/CB, Clemson
51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
52. New York Giants: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
53. Indianapolis Colts: Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa
54. Philadelphia Eagles: Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
55. Kansas City Chiefs: Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana
56. New Orleans Saints: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
57. Seattle Seahawks: Jarvis Jenkins, DL, Clemson
58. Baltimore Ravens: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State
59. Atlanta Falcons: Rob Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic
60. New England Patriots: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami FL
61. San Diego Chargers (from NYJ): Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple
62. Chicago Bears: Ricardo Lockette, WR, Fort Valley State
63. Pittsburgh Steelers: James Carpenter, T, Alabama
64. Green Bay Packers: Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa
Round 3
65. Carolina Panthers: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
66. Cincinnati Bengals: Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh
67. Denver Broncos: Jabaal Sheard, DE/LB, Pittsburgh
68. Buffalo Bills: Clint Boling, G, Georgia
69. Arizona Cardinals: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
70. Cleveland Browns: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
71. Dallas Cowboys: Kenrick Ellis, NT, Hampton
72. New Orleans Saints (from WAS): Jabara Williams, LB, Stephen F. Austin
73. Houston Texans: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
74. New England Patriots (from MIN): Martin Parker, DT, Richmond
75. Detroit Lions: Colin McCarthy, LB, Miami FL
76. San Francisco 49ers: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
77. Tennessee Titans: James Brewer, T, Indiana
78. St. Louis Rams: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
79. Miami Dolphins: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
80. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
81. Oakland Raiders: Mason Foster, LB, Washington
82. San Diego Chargers: Jeremy Kerley, WR/RS, TCU
83. New York Giants: Jordan Cameron, TE, USC
84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: James Brewer, T, Indiana
85. Philadelphia Eagles: Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
86. Kansas City Chiefs: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
87. Indianapolis Colts: John Moffitt, G/C, Wisconsin
88. New Orleans Saints: Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
89. San Diego Chargers (from SEA): Marcus Gilbert, T, Florida
90. Baltimore Ravens: Ricky Elmore, DE/LB, Arizona
91. Atlanta Falcons: Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington
92. New England Patriots: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
93. Chicago Bears: Chris Culliver, S, South Carolina
94. New York Jets: Brooks Reed, LB, Arizona
95. Pittsburgh Steelers: Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin
96. Green Bay Packers: Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee
97. Carolina Panthers: Virgil Green, TE, Nevada
Round 4
98. Carolina Panthers: Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida
99. Seattle Seahawks (from NE via DEN): Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
100. Buffalo Bills: Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
101. Cincinnati Bengals: Orlando Franklin, T/G, Miami FL
102. Cleveland Browns: Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State
103. Arizona Cardinals: Quan Sturdivant, LB, North Carolina
104. Philadelphia Eagles (from WAS): Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami FL
105. Houston Texans: Pernell McPhee, DE, Mississippi State
106. Minnesota Vikings: Tyler Sash, S, Iowa
107. Detroit Lions: Buster Skrine, CB, Chattanooga
108. San Francisco 49ers: Greg Little, WR, North Carolina
109. Tennessee Titans: Brandon Burton, CB, Utah
110. Dallas Cowboys: Kelvin Sheppard, LB, LSU
111. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Jones, CB, NW Missouri
112. St. Louis Rams: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
113. Oakland Raiders: Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska
114. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cortez Allen, CB, Citadel
115. San Francisco 49ers (from SD): Aaron Williams, S, Texas
116. Tampa Bay Bucs: Cedric Thornton, DT, Southern Arkansas
117. New York Giants: Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado
118. Kansas City Chiefs: Jason Pinkston, G, Pittsburgh
119. Indianapolis Colts: Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
120. Philadelphia Eagles: David Mims, T, Virginia Union
121. Jacksonville Jaguars (from NO): Tim Barnes, C, Missouri
122. Buffalo Bills (from SEA): Steven Friday, DE, Virginia Tech
123. Baltimore Ravens: Demarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami FL
124. Atlanta Falcons: Kendrick Burney, CB, North Carolina
125. New England Patriots: David Sims, S, Iowa State
126. New York Jets: Jerrard Tarrant, S, Georgia Tech
127. Chicago Bears: Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno State
128. Pittsburgh Steelers: Lee Ziemba, T, Auburn
129. Green Bay Packers: Chris Conte, S, California
130. Tennessee Titans: Akeem Dent, LB, Georgia
131. Green Bay Packers: D.J. Williams, TE/H-back, Arkansas
