Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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The draft is 15 days away and coming up quickly. I've been quite busy lately finishing up game tape evaluations and also talking with scouts and personnel people that I (mostly) trust. Here are some observations and tidbits to tide you over until the next version of my mock draft gets posted this Friday.
-- I've been hellbent on doing apple/apple comparisons of the top Big Ten pass rushers: JJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, Ryan Kerrigan, and Adrian Clayborn. Kerrigan is much different so he sort of gets excluded (he's a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 pass rush specialist). Here's what I gathered:
Clayborn is the best, most alert run stuffer. He has the best base strength in terms of setting the edge and not being moved from the spot. Clayborn is definitely the biggest hitter of the three as well; he unleashes so much energy and power from his core strength, and he does so without leaving his feet or losing control of his body like so many thumpers (see: Rey Maualuga or Roy Williams).
He's also quite obviously the slowest of the three, both with his hands and feet. I see him as an undersized 4-3 defensive tackle more than an end in either front. He could play five-technique for a team like Dallas or San Diego that merely wants guys to occupy blockers, but you don't draft a player for that role above about the third round (unless you're Scott Pioli, where you draft one in the first two years in a row).
The only game where he was the best of the three was against Penn State, and Iowa was ahead 17-0 early so he didn't have to worry about the run. He was much better in 2009; based just off his 2010 I see a mid-rounder with a strange medical issue (his right shoulder/arm has a condition where he loses strength periodically). Beware. His teammate Christian Ballard showed far more flexibility and creativity and should be a borderline second/third round pick, and I suspect he'll make a better pro than his more heralded teammate.
Watt is raw, but he's got the best blend of power and speed. His tenacity and ability to operate when blocked are superior. When he tried the same basic approach as Clayborn against the same opponent, Watt was better against every single one at both winning the individual battle and finishing the play. Clayborn is a better bull rusher but Watt does a move where he holds for a count and then explodes into the B gap with brutal effectiveness and great burst, just rocks whoever picks him up. That's a move Clayborn simply doesn't have. It's a move Reggie White made a killing with and not many guys can do it. He killed it against Michigan State and Ohio State, the best player on the field in both games. I stand by my in-season comparison of a young Jared Allen with 25 extra pounds. Remember, Allen didn't blossom right away and I don't think Watt will be real great early either. I would still not hesitate to take him in the middle of the first round and deal with him learning the game (remember, he was a Central Michigan TE three years ago) on the fly.
Heyward is the quickest twitch guy of the three and also the most technically sound ... at times. I've perhaps been defending him too vigorously in that regard; he loses focus on technique a lot more than I expected to see. He is the quickest off the snap and the best at diagnosing the offensive scheme and play, and he's easily got the best repertoire of moves to get into the backfield. He's shorter than Watt but he does have some issues with getting his pads too high. He's the best candidate to play five-technique in the NFL, and putting him as the end inside a guy like James Harrison or Terrell Suggs could allow him to net 6-8 sacks a year. I've lowered my grade a bit, taking off my Buckeye blinders I guess. I still like him as a late 1st rounder and I think the right coach can get him to a few Pro Bowls, but I think whatever team picks him will have to live with his mental timeouts as well. He's shorter but I liken him to Calais Campbell in terms of how he'll perform in the NFL.
Kerrigan comes from the Purdue line that produced Anthony Spencer and Cliff Avril, both of whom have had decent success transitioning from the hybrid Boilermaker role to the NFL, with Spencer as a 3-4 outside linebacker and Avril a 4-3 defensive end. Kerrigan is significantly faster that both, but probably not as fluid as either. That's not to say he's straight-linish because he's not, but his game is more focused on beating the man to the point than using moves to beat him. He wasn’t as effective in space as I wanted him to be; to be blunt, he got lucky quite a bit and also got by on hustle and reputation as much as anything he did well. Still, I love his little half-step launch from a 2-point stance and his closing burst on both the quarterback and the ball, and nobody in FBS history has ever forced more fumbles. He's a playmaker at a premium position, and even though he has some warts that commands definite top 20 status. He favorably compares to Michigan's Brandon Graham, who went 13th a year ago.
-- I was doing some film work on offensive tackles and wound up seeing a lot of Da'Quan Bowers. Both Orlando Franklin from Miami and BC's Anthony Castonzo won more battles overall and the total war against Bowers. I expected that from Castonzo, but Franklin did a great job at anticipating/reading the move and snuffing it out, and Bowers had little recourse most of the time. The one that really stood out though was true freshman James Hurst of UNC, who did a fine job of consistently handling Bowers. I was watching the game to check out the Clemson defensive backs but it stood out how a light freshman could drive and steer Bowers wide around the edge. Bowers could bull him but he doesn't have the hand/shoulder/foot coordination to separate quick enough to finish the play in time. Hurst has strong potential to be a good one, but he shouldn't be good enough as a freshman to do that good a job containing a potential top 15 pick.
With the continued murkiness of Bowers' knee, I have to say I'm very bearish on him. I watched two full games and parts of two others from 2009 and the impression I got was "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane." He did some truly outstanding work in 2010 after undergoing some serious tragedy in his personal life, and maybe that switch will stay flipped. But even then he was largely contained by better competition (albeit playing hurt), and his track record is that of an underachiever with an iffy knee. I still think he’ll go in the top 25, but I would not take that risk on him.
-- The more I watch Clemson's Marcus Gilchrist, the more I like. More specifically, the more 2009 I watch the more I like (thanks for the tapes JC!). I see why he's considered a draft board riser. He takes the position of "safety" quite literally. They used him all over the place (primarily cornerback in '10) and he can cover in man or zone, he can play center field, but what I really liked was how he played with an aggressive risk-taker like Deandre McDaniel. They had McDaniel crash the box hard, but he guessed wrong and overran plays quite a bit. But there was Gilchrist, patient and reliable. He also frequently set up the defense in front of him, even doing so from the slot at times. When I spoke with him during Senior Bowl week he came across as very intelligent both on and off the field, and his coaches and teammates have been vocal in singing his praises. I would love him to pair with a guy like Louis Delmas in Detroit or Yeremiah Bell in Miami. I'd be comfortable with him in the late second round, which is higher than I thought going into evaluating him.
-- In working on the mock draft, the biggest question in the first round is, where does the run on offensive tackles start? Tyron Smith at No. 9 seems pretty credible, but then where does it go? Castonzo at No. 13 to Detroit has real legs, but it's not in stone. Does Miami go offensive lineman, and will it be Pouncey? Does New England go tackle? San Diego? KC or New Orleans? Atlanta? I have a pretty good feeling that Sherrod, Carimi, Watkins, and Solder all go within about a 6-to-8 pick range, but I cannot pinpoint where that run will start. I do think they come off in that order, FYI.
-- Two running backs I like a lot more than everyone else: Dion Lewis and Alex Green. They both look like fourth-fifth rounders in reality but I wouldn't hesitate to take them in the top 90. I've always liked Lewis as a poor man's Mo Jones-Drew and I think he's hungry to prove doubters wrong after a somewhat disappointing 2010 at Pittsburgh.
Hawaii's Green is a big back that plays sort of small and runs too upright, but he is a decisive runner with strong vision and great hands out of the backfield. I think he’d be excellent for teams like New England, Green Bay, or Indy that predominately deploy one back and at least three receivers spread out. His attacking mentality and ability to quickly cut while maintaining speed is ideal for carving up defenses in nickel packages that are scared of the pass a lot more than the run.
I prefer both to (among others) Demarco Murray, Shane Vereen, Jordan Todman, and Daniel Thomas. I'd like Eastern Washington's Taiwan Jones more than all of them but he's proven pretty fragile and fumbles way too much -- he had just seven games in two years without losing at least one. But man is he electrifying with the ball in his hands, very eerily similar to Chris Johnson at ECU.
-- Back in the late 80s I was a big fan of the band Great White. Although now they're best known for the tragic nightclub fire a few years ago, they had a huge hit with a cover of "Once Bitten Twice Shy." That song was ubiquitous in my junior year of high school, so you would think I would take the message to heart ... but I'm swimming in the sharky waters with the top tight end prospect for the second year in a row.
I was wrong on Jermaine Gresham last year. I thought his knee problems would limit his burst and take away from what made him a dynamic, albeit underutilized, presence at Oklahoma. I didn't think his 4.8ish speed and upright gait would translate well. All he did was catch 52 passes, block pretty well and immediately become the best tight end the Bengals have had since Bob Trumpy.
This year the top tight end (for most) is Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph. Like Gresham, he enters the draft coming off a serious injury, missing most of 2010 with two torn tendons in his hamstring less than a year after tearing up his left shoulder. Gresham's performance should teach me to be more open-minded, but I'm stubborn like bull here. Rudolph's play in 2010 before tearing the hamstring was unremarkable, and this is a more serious long-term injury than Gresham's multiple "CL" tears. He plodded to an upper 4.8 at his pro day, and Rudolph got most of his notoriety for shredding a truly awful Michigan defense two years ago. Yes, he's got very nice hands and a wide catching radius for the position. He's a competent in-space blocker. By all accounts he's a great teammate and a freakishly intense worker.
But he was more reliant on speed and burst off the line to get open than Gresham, whose innate ability to find the hole between the safety and linebacker and present a great target carried over from college. Rudolph was a guy that Jimmy Clausen often had to "throw open," and as he proved in Carolina last year, that turkey doesn't fly in the NFL. He's not as strong of an in-line blocker as Gresham, and he's not fast enough or quick enough to consistently flex him out and dictate matchup mismatches like a Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley. I liken him to Kevin Boss of the Giants, a solid starter but best served as a third or 4th banana in a diverse passing offense. Boss went in the fifth round and honestly that's about where I would take Rudolph, even though I doubt he lasts until #40 overall. I guess I need to be bitten twice...
