Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01-- In an attempt to foster more cordial and productive negotiations, the NFL and the NFLPA agreed to meet before a federal mediator. They met for several hours both Friday and Saturday, a week after talks bitterly ended in ugly, spiteful poo-flinging reminiscent of the bonobo exhibit at the Columbus Zoo.
There is actually a lot to learn from the bonobos in the course of human negotiations. Bonobos are the closest simian species to our own (sorry to creationists, you may tune out now) and their lives are a basic case study in conflict and resolution. They fight intensely for every scrap of food, and throwing feces with teeth bared is a common behavioral tactic. That?s where the NFL and the players were a week ago.
But bonobos understand that they need one another to survive and thrive. They are exceptionally compassionate to their young and their very old, often sacrificing their own food and fur to take care of the needs of the less able-bodied. I think the move to federal mediation, even though it is non-binding, is a step in this direction for the CBA negotiations. Neither side wants to lose to the life blood of the fans. Mediation means there is an acknowledgment that there is too much at stake for the fighting to remain so blind and senseless. It?s like an impartial silver-back calming down two virile youngsters fighting over the same fertile female.
Probably the coolest fact about bonobos is how they resolve conflict. They fornicate. They do it frequently and vigorously, often as a group. I?m not suggesting that D. Smith and Commissioner Goodell suit up, or even that they?re ready to enter the same bedroom yet. But once a deal is consummated, and I?m still quite confident one will be before the NFL Draft at the end of April, the owners and players might as well call it an orgy. After all, they?re divvying up close to $10 billion, and that number is only going to go up as the life of the new agreement carries forward. That?s just cause for a little bonobo-style celebration in my book.
$.02-- A lot of people wonder why I?m so optimistic that a deal will get done so quickly, with no prolonged lockout or any missed camp time. Here are some of the methods to my madness:
-- There is really only one major dispute, and that is the percentage of revenue that goes to the players and what all gets included in what is called ?revenue?. All the talk about 18 games, rookie wage scales, retired player benefits, contract lengths and free agency rules, player safety, all that stuff is negotiable give-and-take fodder. Some of those are going to be contentious, but nothing in comparison to the main fight over total revenue.
-- Quite obviously, players lose everything by not playing. I suspect no more than 10% of all players will have any money left by Christmas if there are any games missed, and most will be hawking their cars and bling before the end of the summer if they?re still locked out. Financial planning is the great acute failure of most players (agents must shoulder blame as well, some significantly more than others), and even though the players knew the storm was coming, very few have insurance against it.
-- More than a few owners have a tremendous amount to lose as well. Sure, they all get their TV money. But they have to pay it back if games are missed, and those lost games impact the future TV deals. The league makes beau coup dollars from DirecTV and the Sunday Ticket package, but if callers to radio shows are to be believed, the vast majority of purchasers are refusing to automatically renew that lucrative package. The networks can?t sell advertising time for games that might not get played; likewise, in-stadium advertising shrivels. One of the notable things in watching games in the strike year of 1987 was the absence of much of the in-stadium signage. It came back quickly, and it will this time as well, but if the owners are credibly presenting the argument that they are not making money, then they cannot afford to lose that advertising revenue, or season ticket renewals, or risk the golden goose of television money. Owners didn?t accrue enough money to purchase NFL teams by being poor businessmen.
-- The pressure to win. With everything on hold, owners lose the ability to improve their teams. Don?t think that won?t drive guys like Daniel Snyder, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Arthur Blank, or several others absolutely crazy. Their football people are in their ears, letting them know they can?t rightly execute a draft concept or offseason plan of attack if they don?t know who will be on the team. Over 450 players could be free agents, and that could conceivably include the players recently given franchise tags if those aren?t included in the new agreement.
Jim Irsay, the owner of the Colts, could watch it all go away a la the post-LeBron Cleveland Cavaliers if Peyton Manning hits free agency and Mr. Snyder offers him $50M more to play for the Ethnic Slurs. The Cavs lost more than 26 games in a row; they lost over a third of their market value in less than six months. With as heavily as many of these owners are leveraged, market value loss is more devastating than anything the players could ever take from them. It?s the same as if you suddenly lose your ability to pay a mortgage for a house that isn?t worth 60% of what you paid for it, and the owners know they control the means to avoid that despair. Don?t ever forget that point.
$.03-- If you follow the NBA at all, or venture to the basketball section of RealGM, you have no doubt heard all about the season-long courtship of Carmelo Anthony by a host of other teams. It?s been a protracted series of non-starts and false leads, but the overriding factor behind it all is Anthony?s open desire to leave Denver for his home in New York and play for the Knicks. He has all but refused to sign for more money with Denver to make his dream of playing back east.
Why is that relevant to an NFL discussion? Well, this past week the Detroit Lions were found guilty of tampering. As punishment for their relatively quiet courtship of former Chiefs safety Jarrad Page, the Lions must give their 7th round pick to Kansas City as well as exchanging 5th round picks, costing them about 10 draft slots.
Lions Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham coached Page in KC, and the Chiefs were making no secret of his eminent availability. The comments were more to the nature of ?We?re interested in Page or any players that can help us win games? than ?The Detroit Lions are openly recruiting Jarrad Page and hope his holdout causes the Chiefs to deal him to us?. For that, and some other similar actions, the Lions get deservedly spanked a little. The irony is that the Chiefs wound up dealing Page to New England, where Kansas City GM Scott Pioli used to work, and the deal was for a 7th round pick. That is less than what the Lions offered according to two different reports, but that?s for another tampering story?
I?m just wondering how Carmelo Anthony can essentially say, ?I?m taking my talents to New York or Brooklyn? (where the Nets are moving) while he?s still under contract with the Nuggets. How is that not tampering? As disgusting as LeBron?s The Decision was, at least he waited until he was a free agent before going crazy. Carmelo?s antics have kept the Nuggets sputtering all season and made a mockery of the NBA. The Knicks and Nets have both publicly confirmed they are chasing after Carmelo, still a Nuggets employee under contract. That?s apparently not tampering in the eyes of David Stern and the NBA. Carmelo and the two NYC-area teams should consider themselves very lucky they aren?t in the NFL.
$.04-- Now for something a bit lighter?
A driven entrepreneur has reinvented the mouse trap, err, beer keg. Check out this story:
Yes, that?s right: he invented a new way to dispense beer at sporting events that is much more efficient, reduces foamy beer syndrome, and is just pretty darn cool to watch. I watched one of the demos on YouTube and it?s amazing.
This could fundamentally change the stadium experience for fans. Think about it: the biggest detriment to leaving your seat to purchase refreshments is the lines. But this product shrinks those lines to the point where you won?t need longer than a TV timeout to get a beer?or a soda, assuming they can rig that up as well. No more waiting for the annoying beer vendor to get to your section and have 9 people fondle your suds before you get it. No more standing anxiously in line and missing a drive, or an inning, or half a quarter of a basketball game. Beer sales are huge revenue boons for pro sports teams, and Josh Springer has just provided an avenue to drastically increase those streams while improving the fan experience. Kudos to you, Josh Springer!
$.05-- The annual Scouting Combine kicks off this week in Indianapolis, and I?ll have much to write on that as the event unfolds. Here are some players I will be carefully watching. And when I say I?m watching them, I?m focused just as much, if not more, on how the NFL teams react to their performances. Obviously different teams are looking for different things, and awesome athletic workouts mean the world to some and little to others.
-- Allen Bailey, DE, Miami FL: he?s the most likely participant to wow Indy with his physical and athletic package. It?s expected he weighs in north of 280 pounds yet will still run a sub 4.6 40, and he reportedly has a 38? vertical jump. He is the epitome of a workout warrior, which actually puts a lot of pressure on Bailey to have a freakish workout. I am very curious how he responds. I still think he?s no better than a 5th round prospect based on his actual performance between the lines, no matter what he does in Indy.
-- Tyron Smith, T, USC: his weight and bench press numbers are the only things to look at. He played at USC in the 285 range, which is at least 10 pounds too light for the NFL. Reports have him over 300 now, and if that is true, then he needs to demonstrate he hasn?t lost the great quickness and lateral agility that make him perhaps the top overall tackle prospect. He?s one of the few prospects that can legitimately, significantly alter his draft stock.
-- Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy: he pulled out of the Senior Bowl with an injury suffered in Troy?s bowl game, which denied him the big stage to show off his speed and agility. Word has it he?s ready to put on a display worthy of Percy Harvin, the player he most easily compares with. In actual game action, I didn?t see anyone faster than Jernigan in the first 10 yards last season, and I suspect he will turn in the best times in agility drills too. I strongly believe he?s a first-round caliber talent, and a good week in Indy just might convince some others of that.
-- Jake Locker, QB, Washington: one of the things that happens in every draft cycle is that the draftniks and media turn on some QB prospects, and the Combine is the litmus test for how he handles that pressure. Some have shined: Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Sam Bradford come to mind. Others have wilted: Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen, and Matt Leinart. Notice the trend there? Locker is the guy most in that position this time around, a player with some obvious talents but also a nagging issue that dogs him. I want to see how teams digest Locker?s response to challenges on his accuracy and INT problems.
There are several small-school guys worth watching as well. It?s always interesting to see how they handle the added pressure of having to prove their worth in what is likely the first time many NFL decision makers have even seen or encountered them.
The athletic portion that you can watch is only a fragment of what happens in Indy. Teams interview players in a kind of friendly drill sergeant motif. Agents are openly promoting their clients in hotel lobbies, restaurants, mall escalators, etc. Normally this is also where the groundwork for most free agent deals gets done, but sadly that is out the window this year with the labor situation. That?s yet another reason why I think the labor talks are going to progress; owners used to having their houses in a certain order at this certain time will find chaos, and chaos makes for bad business.
