Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Shawn Alexander of the Seahawks is the latest big-name player to pledge his allegiance to the annual summer rite of NFL crybabies: threaten a holdout due to the franchise tag. Since the CBA in 1993 added the concepts of "franchise tag" and "transition player", this designation has drawn the ire of many a player and the grumbling of every GM to utilize the labels. But for Alexander being tagged a franchise player isn't such a bad thing. In fact, he could stand to profit enormously by playing this season as the Seahawk's franchise player.
Alexander will make $6.32 million in 2005 if he decides to honor the one-year tender offer, which various sources have reported he will not. Last season Alexander earned a base salary of $3.25 million, with $800 in bonuses. His base salary ranked 4th, but the total compensation landed him 12th among NFL running backs. Alexander certainly rates higher than 12th in the pantheon of NFL backs, coming off a 3-year span in which he rushed for 4306 yards and 46 touchdowns, good for 4th and 2nd respectively. He'll be 28 when the season begins, not young in RB terms but far from the end of his productive years, and he's never missed a game due to injury. All of those factors point to Alexander wanting, and deserving of, a fat long-term deal. But he could make out even better if he accepts the franchise tag, produces another stellar season, and gets another shot at free agency next summer.
The franchise label has one main drawback for Alexander, mainly no signing bonus. Since he's coming off his rookie deal he's never cashed in on the signing bonus bonanza, and the bonus is the only guaranteed money an NFL player can get. Judging from the most recent signing bonuses inked by premium RBs, Alexander could easily rake in $12 million in guaranteed bonus dollars, and conceivably could get double the $6.32M he'll earn as the Seahawks' franchise player. That figure precludes his actual non-guaranteed base salary and perfomance bonus incentives, which could rocket his total earnings over $15M. The most comparable RB, Ladanian Tomlinson of the Chargers, earned a combined $16 million in 2004. Alexander has a strong argument in his favor for getting that type of a deal right now.
However, Alexander could easily pocket his $6.32M in 2005 and then cash in for upwards of $16M in the summer of 2006. That's essentially a bonus of $6.32 million for playing one more season without a long-term deal. The Seahawks cannot waive him thanks to the franchise designation, so that money is guaranteed. Assuming he produces an average Shaun Alexander season of 1550 yards and 15 touchdowns, that $16M+ will certainly be there. It also gives Alexander the ability to negotiate a long-term deal with the Seahawks during the season. Were he to sign the long-term deal right now, it would likely be his last ultra-rich payday. Let's say he signs a deal similar to Tomlinson's 6-year contract, which pays him around $60M with $21M guaranteed, in the summer of 2006. When that deal is up Alexander would be 35, though he'd likely be waived in a cap maneuver after 4 or 5 seasons when the cap hit woudn't decimate the Seahawks (or the team he signs with). The market value of a RB in his mid-30s isn't very lucrative and certainly not long-term. He'd likely have to settle for a deal in the $2-3M guaranteed at that point if he's still productive and healthy. That's quite a bit less than the $6.32M guaranteed he's balking at right now.
By taking the franchise deal and then inking a long-term deal next year, Alexander sacrifices the security now for a richer overall take. The risk of injury isn't insignificant, so I can understand Alexander's position that he wants his guaranteed money now. But if he has an average full season on a Seahawk team that has a fair chance at a lengthy playoff run, his market value will never be higher than it would next summer. Plus he pockets the full $6.32M for his services this year. A 29-year old elite RB will certainly pull more guaranteed millions than a 33-year old RB competing for big money against the next wave of elite RBs, which is where Alexander would find himself if he signs a long-term deal now. It's a risk for sure, but insurance can cover a good deal of that risk. The Seahawks foot a good percentage of that premium by sticking him with the franchise tag, so the calculated gamble looks even better for Alexander to swallow his short-term money lust and accept the Seahawks' franchise designation. Admittedly it's a tough sell to someone as relatively underpaid as Shaun Alexander has been, but it's a sell his agent (who would surely benefit from it) should push real hard.
