Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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I typically shorten the $.10 to $.05 in the playoffs and offseason, but the next two weeks still have enough game action to merit a few ?bonus? cents.
$.01-- In the only game I correctly forecast, Green Bay went into Philly and knocked off the Eagles. Chalk this win up to Green Bay having the hotter quarterback and the better defense. Aaron Rodgers was better than his 180 yards and three touchdowns would indicate, and the Packers defense harassed and bewildered Michael Vick into a performance deceptively inferior to his 292 yards passing paired with a TD throw and another run.
A lot of times playoff games come down to which team is able to dictate the action, and Mike McCarthy had his director?s hat on all afternoon, while Andy Reid uncomfortably fidgeted in the production assistant?s chair. Even though the game was pretty close throughout and the Eagles fought hard, I never got the sense that Philly was doing anything but reacting to Green Bay. The Packers effectively ran the ball and weren?t shy about punching the Philly defense in the mouth to do so. That?s something the Packers offensive line has not done well all year, and it was facilitated by Rodgers always being a step ahead of the Philly defense. They feared the play action and the spread-out speed, and the Packers pounced. It helped a great deal that the Philly defense was missing so many regulars, but Eagles fans will garner little sympathy from the Cheeseheads on that front.
Green Bay?s defense was even more in command. They attacked Vick with delay blitzes, trail rushes, creative zone drops, and relentless tenacity. It?s a testament to Vick?s talent that the Eagles fared as well as they did, because the Packers defense was firing on all cylinders with a sharpness that looks very Super Bowl-ready. They effectively throttled down Desean Jackson, the dynamic playmaker that is the difference between Philly?s offense being pretty good and being awesome.
The Eagles hit the offseason with an intriguing quarterback situation that will be the focus of much media attention. My prediction: Vick gets a lucrative 1-year deal that will be the last one he gets in Philly, while Kevin Kolb will play the role of good soldier and accept the wink-wink deal to be #2 in 2011 behind Vick, who has a nasty propensity for getting hurt, and then be The Man. Expect them to get offers for 3rd stringer Mike Kafka, but I highly doubt they bite. This is a franchise that is much better at letting aging players go than giving up young talent that goes on to flourish elsewhere. It might be frustrating for Eagles fans to hear, not to mention for the incredibly loyal and vocal Vick fans, but I agree with the above strategy.
$.02-- Saturday morning I woke up with a Katy Perry song in my head and the sinking feeling that the Seahawks were going to make history and win against the Saints. Nothing against the Seahawks, but I thought they matched up poorly with the Saints, and I believed the playoff mettle of the defending champs would allow them to overcome Seattle?s best shot. I was wrong. Everyone was wrong on this one.
I was amazed at how poorly the New Orleans defense came out and played. I thought I was watching the Houston Texans in Saints uniforms. If that is the best Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams can do in an open audition to get a head coaching job, he?s destined to be a coordinator forever. Actually if his teams are so freakishly passive and easily duped, he might not be a coordinator much longer. I know the Saints have injury issues, but that defense was completely unprepared to play that opponent. Seattle started Matt Hasselbeck, bad back, bad wrist and all, behind a bad offensive line fronting a heretofore bad running game. Yet the Seahawks racked up 415 yards, or almost 120 more than they averaged on the season. It appeared the game plan was to get the ball back in Drew Brees? hands quicker by letting Seattle score.
The Seahawks obliged, early and often. Hasselbeck showed a great deal of mettle, and the Seattle coaching staff infused a lively game plan with the rah-rah enthusiasm that was expertly designed to keep the legendary 12th man screaming supportively. I think Pete Carroll did a fine job in convincing his team they could in fact pull off the upset. Seattle played all day with a confidence and sharpness that has been noticeably absent almost all year, reflected in Hasselbeck?s play but also in some incredible individual efforts that have also been in very short supply. Marshawn Lynch?s long TD scamper around and through the entire Saints defense will be the lasting highlight from this one, and it perfectly epitomizes the appalling effort from the New Orleans defense and the nothing-to-lose freedom of the 7-9 Seahawks.
$.03-- Baltimore blew out Kansas City 30-7 in the sort of dominating defensive display that harkens back to the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl a decade ago. There was an obvious advantage in playoff experience for Baltimore, but after soaking in the game it was pretty clear that Baltimore?s biggest edge came not on the field but on the sidelines.
John Harbaugh and his Ravens coaching staff simply embarrassed Todd Haley and the Chiefs crew. Baltimore exhibited great patience at the onset, knowing that an inexperienced opponent would come out guns ablaze and then fall back to earth. Harbaugh quickly ascertained what Kansas City was doing defensively and made savvy adjustments. The Chiefs secondary was not going to get beat outside or over the top, so Harbaugh simply removed those plays from the game plan. The Chiefs never even tried to adjust to Baltimore?s Plan B, which entailed short crosses and heavily featured TE Todd Heap completely uncovered in the giant holes behind the LBs and in front of the safeties. It was absolute coaching brilliance by Harbaugh and a stubbornly incompetent game from Chiefs defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel. Crennel clung to keeping safety Kendrick Lewis playing deeper than normal, and continually kept his LBs in no-man?s land and clearly uncomfortable in an outside-in zone scheme. Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis had no answers for Baltimore?s defense, which held the Chiefs to 25 yards in the 2nd half and appeared to recognize the impending play from the formation and personnel package almost every time. I give Weis more of a pass because his line was overmatched and his wideouts aren?t very good, but a team with Jamaal Charles, Dexter McCluster, and Tony Moeaki should be able to manage at least one decent drive.
Failure to make in-game adjustments is not a new criticism for Crennel; it largely cost him his head coaching job in Cleveland. But it?s endemic of a broader issue that has plagued the Bill Parcells coaching tree for years now, including the progenitor of that tree. Inspiring players, molding a family-like atmosphere, and carrying a big stick goes a long way, but when the other team isn?t afraid and has some acumen, you?d better be able to back it up with great Xs and Os and not be so arrogant to think that your game plan won?t need to be altered. The Ravens quickly implemented effective changes, while the Chiefs kept going to the dry well thinking water would magically gush. It didn?t, and the Chiefs have now lost an NFL-record seven consecutive playoff games.
$.04-- Rex Ryan gets his wish, heading to New England for a second-round game with the Patriots as his Jets finished off the Colts in about as boring of a thriller as Dean Koontz could conjure. It was a nondescript yawner until the final two drives, when all of the sudden a classic finish emerged.
A lot has been, and will be written about how the Jets came up big in the clutch on the road. Count me amongst the pleasantly surprised at the poise and composure of the Jets. But the bigger story I took from this game is that this could very well be the end of the Colts as we have known them.
Much has been made of Peyton Manning?s relative decline (you heard that here first too), probably too much. He?s still a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback and one of the most feared weapons in the league. But Manning?s supporting cast on offense hasn?t been this weak at any point in their long playoff string, and Manning himself is no longer able to put on his cape and make it all better. Reggie Wayne was basically blanked, erased by Darrelle Revis and his physical coverage. The other receivers are decent, but they?re not up to the old standards, particularly in terms of consistency. Pierre Garcon can make the long strike, but he?s just as apt to misread the coverage or get run off his route. The running game sputtered almost all season and struggled in this one as well, and it goes beyond Joseph Addai not being 100%. The offensive line in Indy has never been this bad since the team moved there, and the bedrock of that line, center Jeff Saturday, was completely overmatched and looked very much at the end of the line on Saturday (no pun intended). They just don?t have the weapons that can scare defenses anymore. Getting Dallas Clark back will help, but I believe this offense is in real peril of a precipitous decline from what we?ve come to expect from a unit led by Peyton Manning.
Manning?s legacy is also in peril. He?s had his skeptics for years, dating back to his inability to beat Florida while at Tennessee. An 8-10 playoff record puts Manning in the company of Dan Marino and Warren Moon, not Joe Montana or Tom Brady in the Pantheon of all-time greats. Manning does have the trump card with his Super Bowl win, but much like Marino he has consistently failed to deliver the anticipated playoff success. In his last two playoff games he?s thrown the game-losing pick six in the Super Bowl and had little working for him in a Wild Card round loss. All those regular season accomplishments--and nobody has ever been better for longer in that regard--are tempered by all those inferior playoff results.
$.05-- One of the things that stood out Saturday was how critical special teams were to the upset victors. Seattle dominated field position off kicks and punts; their kick coverage units were as instrumental in the victory as anything Matt Hasselbeck did. The Saints returned 7 kickoffs and got exactly one of them beyond their own 23, a Robert Meacham scamper that got them to their own 30 on their final drive. Olindo Mare boomed almost every kick into the end zone with good hang time, but the Seahawks special teamers just appeared to want it more.
The Jets wouldn?t have won without dominating the special teams either. The Colts? fatal flaw turned out to be the injuries to all their defensive backs, but it didn?t kill them on defense. It was the special teams, stocked with inexperienced practice squad refugees with no continuity, that are why the Colts are eliminated. The running into the kicker penalty, the almost pointless return efforts by the Colts, and the huge Antonio Cromartie kick return that set up the final score were huge advantages for the Jets, allowing them to overcome a crappy outing from The Sanchize and a -1 turnover ratio.
But it?s not just the Colts and Saints that suffered from bad special teams. Philly lost to the Packers in part because David Akers missed two very makeable field goals. The New York Giants are watching the playoffs unfold because of wretched special teams, never recovering from Desean Jackson?s Week 15 punt return miracle. San Diego missed the playoffs almost exclusively because of terrible special teams early in the season; they had the #1 offense in yardage and #1 defense in the league in yards allowed, but 4 blocked punts surrendered, 4 return TDs allowed, and two untimely missed field goals doomed them to playoff observer.
I?m a firm believer that relying on special teams to win you games is asking too much, but also that special teams issues are the quickest way to give away wins. Saturday?s games were a great example.
$.06-- Miami put on a clinic in how not to handle a coaching search with their very public, very asinine courtship of Jim Harbaugh. The Stanford coach spurned their absurdly lucrative advances and chose to stay in the Bay Area and coach the Niners. That left Dolphins owner Stephen Ross with a chicken coop of eggs on his finely tailored suit, primarily because he still has a coach in Tony Sparano.
In a ham-handed reconciliation attempt, Ross gave Sparano a fresh extension through the 2012 season. That extension, if the details I?ve read are accurate, is for less money over the two years than Ross offered Harbaugh per season. Fat chance Sparano is around long enough to try and negotiate another extension.
Now the underachieving Dolphins face an offseason with a coach they don?t really want and a locker room full of players that are keenly aware he?s a lame duck. Look how well that worked out for Carolina and Cleveland this year. Ross showed his hand as a classless, tactless owner in a city that is becoming increasingly known for harboring such types (coughLebron). Ross allegedly wanted Harbaugh in no small part to generate fan enthusiasm, as he is tired of seeing at least 15,000 empty seats every Sunday. Now he must sell those apathetic fans on more of the same, in a division with two legit Super Bowl contenders and a Buffalo team that is everything the Dolphins are not--passionate, plucky, and moving forward.
$.07-- Here in Houston, the land that the playoffs forgot, the Texans managed to stay in the news by hiring Wade Philips to try and turn around a defense coming off a 3-year stretch unmatched in NFL history for its ineptness.
Philips has a strong track record as a defensive coordinator, but this will be his greatest challenge. That challenge is exacerbated by the requisite scheme change to a 3-4 front, a drastic change from the vanilla 4-3 played under the deposed Frank Bush. It will require a lot of shuffling of bodies in and out, as the only players that really fit in the new scheme are LDE Antonio Smith (who played in a 3-4 in Arizona) and LB Demeco Ryans, who should thrive as the weakside ILB. A wild card is Brian Cushing, who should be able to handle the role of strongside ILB if he can adequately replace his loss of steroidal enhancement, something which he couldn?t do this year. If Connor Barwin can come back from a nasty broken leg, I am optimistic he can handle the change to ROLB, but he was already on a steep learning curve before the brutal injury.
Everyone else is a misfit, most notably DE Mario Williams. Super Mario struggled in 2010 with a bum groin, but stylistically the move to a one-gap system takes away from what he does well. Unless the team drafts a dynamic pass rusher to flank him, he?s wasted in this front much the way Glenn Dorsey is wasted in Kansas City or Corey Williams was in Cleveland. There is already talk of trading the #1 pick in the 2006 draft, but that?s all just speculation right now. Another 1st round defensive lineman, Amobi Okoye, probably has played his last game in Houston, as Philips has little function for a passive player up front. There is no nose tackle, there is no safety that can handle the change of assignments, there is no outside linebacker or pass rushing threat. The corners are still very young and completely lack confidence.
I was also rubbed the wrong way by how both the Texans and Bum Philips handled the situation. Bum is Wade?s dad and a Houston icon for his tenure some 30 years ago as coach of the underachieving Luv Ya Blue Oilers, and he openly lobbied and pressured for his 63-year old son to get the job. If my dad still feels the need to hold my hand and play cards to get me a job when I?m 63, just shoot me. It was sad and pathetic, much like the Texans defense. Good luck, Wade, you?re going to need it.
$.08--Random Draft quickies:
-- I think two guys that are going to rocket up draft boards this workout season are Illinois DT Corey Liuget and Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling. Liuget lost about 30 pounds last offseason and came back a lean mean fighting machine inside. He?s better at the same point than recent, similar 1st rounders Peria Jerry and Ziggy Hood. Dowling has fallen off many radar screens due to a season essentially lost to injuries, but he?s healthy now and his game tape from 2009 reveals a legit shutdown corner that can tackle. Both are 1st round talents; let?s see if they wind up there.
-- The more I talk with NFL personnel people and scouts, the more I hear about how much attention is being paid to players? football IQs. Teams want guys that can learn but don?t have to be taught, to quote one AFC North decision-maker. When you see a player unexpectedly slide this April, chances are pretty good that a lack of perceived football IQ has a lot to do with it.
-- With Andrew Luck out, the QB crop is now as barren as it?s been since 2005, a.k.a. the Alex Smith draft. Just one other QB went in the first two rounds that year (Aaron Rodgers at #24) and the likes of Charlie Frye, David Greene, Dan Orlovsky and Stefan LeFors filled out the next tier with Kyle Orton the lone bright surprise.
Blaine Gabbert is the new #1 QB on most boards, but he will be overdrafted if he goes above #15 overall. Ryan Mallett, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder and Jake Locker (in that order) all have upside-laden potential but also much to prove. The wild card is Cam Newton, and if I?m a team in the top 10 that needs a huge impact player at QB, he?s my only choice. I like the tag I heard from a caller to a radio show, ?He?s Vince Young with a work ethic?.
-- I was very happy to see Cameron Heyward dominate the Sugar Bowl in the Ohio State win. Even slowed by an elbow injury, he made his presence known on every snap, continually overpowering and outmaneuvering the Arkansas line. I counted 16 snaps where he directly faced off with DeMarcus Love, a tackle I hold in top 40 regard, and Heyward won 15 of them. He?s the best 3-man front DE in this draft and should be drafted as such. The talk of him falling to the third round is utter nonsense.
-- Among the multitude of valid reasons for Michigan firing RichRod, one that stands out is the lack of NFL-caliber talent he was able to recruit. They will have two players drafted in the middle rounds this year, seniors LB Jonas Mouton and G Steven Schilling, the last of the Lloyd Carr recruiting classes. Having watched every UofM game, I?m not sure they have anyone that will go higher than about the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, either. I can find you more NFL prospects at several MAC schools than what Michigan has right now. That?s freaking embarrassing, and I say that as a Buckeyes lifer.
-- All the talk about the uncertain labor situation apparently didn?t dissuade many underclassmen from declaring. Pretty much everyone that was expected to come out did, save Andrew Luck and Oklahoma WR Ryan Broyles. The prospects of diminished and/or delayed paychecks in the NFL are little hindrance to the prospects of playing for no paychecks in college.
