Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 13-3, yeah baby! 114-77 on the season but with three straight weeks of at least 10 wins.
Before I get to the games, a couple of bonus cents on some recent league developments:
$.01-- Washington suspended malcontent DT Albert Haynesworth for conduct detrimental to the team, a move spurred in part by Haynesworth?s own teammates, who feared that his lack of effort was going to get them hurt. He will not be missed by anyone in Washington, just as several Titans openly cheered when he left Tennessee a couple summers ago.
Sadly, I don?t believe this is the last we?ve heard of Haynesworth. Despite his appalling attitude, his recalcitrant behavior, and his drastically declined productivity on the field, someone is going to give him another chance. You had better hope it?s not your team, and you?d better hope if they do that it?s on the cheap.
$.02-- Dandy Don Meredith passed away, as you?ve probably heard by now. I?m a little young to remember much of his Monday Night Football tenure, but one of the things that struck me in all the eulogizing is how much so many people miss his irreverence and slyness in the broadcast booth. In an era where every play is micro-analyzed from six different angles and a dizzying array of complex football terminology bombards viewers, I think there is a very welcome place for a broadcaster with Meredith?s spirit to carry on. As much as I loathed John Madden, he was the closest to that style. Dan Fouts has that goofiness to him, but it always seems like he?s biting his tongue. In honor of Dandy Don, I?d love for this weekend to feature more off-kilter color commentary and uncouth observations instead of detailed breakdowns of the intricacies of the Cover-3 and two-gaping.
$.03-- Urban Meyer resigned as football coach at Florida, citing family concerns and burnout. You might recall he tried to do the same thing a year ago, only to completely screw over his family by reneging on his leave of absence. I hope he?s honest and serious about it this time. During his press conference I wanted so badly for someone to ask him why we should believe him this time after how badly he deceived everyone last year. Sadly, nobody bit.
Look, I don?t wish anything bad upon Meyer and I (once again) applaud him for doing the right thing in stepping away if his heart isn?t in it. But if he resurfaces at Florida, or with the Denver Broncos, or anywhere else coaching before fall of 2012, I will have as much respect for Meyer as I do for Lou Holtz or Bobby Petrino--two guys that violated their own words before taking their next breaths in screwing over the Univeristy of Minnesota (Holtz) and the Atlanta Falcons (Petrino). Please coach, keep your word this time. If not for me, for your family, the ones that call you ?Dad? and not ?Coach?.
Thursday Game:
Indianapolis (14) at Tennessee (25): Everyone has been kicking the Colts all week, freely and eagerly trying to get their licks in on a ripe sucker. I?m guilty as well, though I?ve been beating the horse for several weeks now. And because I was ahead of the curve on the issues plaguing Manning & Co., I?m hopeful that my instincts about their rebound here are prescient as well.
I think the Colts are going to unleash a fury that proves they are still a force to be reckoned with, fiercely defending their AFC South title by vanquishing the quickly fading Titans. On paper, these Titans should be able to handle these Colts, but the Titans have been turning paper advantages into toilet tissue lately. Ever since the Vince Young saga played out, this has not been a good football team. They haven?t even been competitive in the literal sense of the word, dropping five in a row and playing very much like a team trying to get its coach fired. It?s a lethal combo for the Titans here, even at home in prime time. Colts 37, Titans 20.
Sunday?s Best:
New England (1) at Chicago (6): Last week the Patriots? lack of a defined wide receiver org chart stymied the Jets, who couldn?t figure out whom to isolate on Revis Island. This week is plays into the hands of the Bears defense, which thrives on a tightly executed zone. Chicago?s linebackers have been consistently awesome in coverage situations all season long, aided in part by an improved pass rush from Julius Peppers & Co. up front. Going from facing one defensive extreme to another on a short week is an appreciable challenge, even for such an accomplished offense as New England and Tom Brady.
The flip side is New England?s defense against Chicago?s offense. Leaky all season, the Pats young defense confused The Sanchize and dominated the Jets. You can see the confidence growing in players like Jermaine Cunningham and Devin McCourty. They?re going to need to perform beyond their collective years once again in Chicago, because the Bears offense is quietly humming right along. Jay Cutler is largely avoiding the head-shaking blunders that have marred his career, and Matt Forte is chugging very efficiently--4.9 yards per first down carry in his last six games. Offensive balance stymies what New England tries to do on defense, and Chicago should be able to pile up some serious yardage. The key will be converting those yards into points, which is an area where the Bears have shown great improvement as the season has progressed. They ranked 30th in red zone TD percentage after five games, but they?ve risen to 19th since, while the Patriots remain in the bottom seven in red zone defense. I really like that matchup for Chicago.
I also like the sense of purpose coming from Halas Hall. The Bears have a giant chip on their shoulder, feeling ignored by the national media and disrespected by fans that don?t consider them a viable NFC contender. Even the bookies have found fault, making the Patriots a three-point favorite in Chicago. The Bears wear the angry, dissed hat well, and I think it carries them to what most people will perceive to be a surprise victory. Chicago 24, New England 20.
Kansas City (11) at San Diego (12): Kansas City can really put away the AFC West with a win here, opening a three-game lead on the Chargers and keeping at least a game up on the Raiders with just three more games remaining. That task is made much harder by Matt Cassel?s emergency appendectomy, which almost certainly rules him out for this game. I?ve frequently been critical of Cassel, but he has developed a nice rhythm this season and has the offense playing with confidence. Brodie Croyle takes over as the starter with his career 0-9 record and 57.0 QB rating against AFC West opponents, which haven?t exactly been bastions of pass defense during his career.
San Diego won?t mind the unexpected break, not after Oakland shocked them last week. It will be interesting to see how the Chargers respond to having their confidence shaken late in the season; they haven?t lost in December since 2005 when Marty Schottenheimer was the coach. They desperately need to win this game and get payback for losing the season opener, a game where they more than doubled Kansas City?s yardage and had a 9-minute advantage in time of possession but still managed to lose. If Cassel were playing I?d be real tempted to pick the Chiefs, but throwing Croyle to the wolves on the road is asking an awful lot. Chargers 23, Chiefs 16.
Oakland (15) at Jacksonville (13): A lot of times when I can?t decide on a forecast--which is the case here--I turn to my lovely wife for help. Through the years she?s proven invaluable at figuring out which button to push that tips me to one side or the other, and she seldom misses pushing the proper one. So when I asked her about this game, she asked me if the Jaguars were due for another flurry of turnovers like the Cleveland and Tennessee debacles. I think they are, and I also like rookie Jacoby Ford to have a lot of success as both a return man and a receiver for Oakland. Don?t read any confidence into this pick, because if they played 100 times each team would win 50 and the setting is irrelevant. Raiders 24, Jaguars 21.
Miami (21) at New York Jets (4): I?ll keep this short and sweet--the Jets are way too talented and way too prideful to not bounce back with a vengeance here. Miami is in for a very long, cold afternoon. Jets 31, Dolphins 10.
Sunday Drive:
Philadelphia (9) at Dallas (19): The Cowboys are finally rolling, going 3-1 under Jason Garrett by playing smarter and tougher. And schematically they present a challenge for Michael Vick, who has seldom seen a 3-4 front or a freak-show OLB like DeMarcus Ware, a defender that can run him down from behind unless Vick is at full sprint.
Having said that, I think the Eagles have a couple of underappreciated advantages here. They haven?t played since last Thursday, which gives them a nice mini-bye rest time. Andy Reid is exceptional coming off byes, and I think the extra rest also will allow Asante Samuel to be more recovered (and they?ll need him!). Also, Philly leads the league in turnover margin at +13 and is second in forced turnovers with 28. Dallas went +4 last week, raising their season tally to -3. That tells me that a repeat of such fortune for Dallas is extremely unlikely. I think Dallas is going to miss the field-stretching ability of Dez Bryant too. Philly triumphs on the road, 28-24.
Tampa Bay (18) at Washington (24): The Bucs have been a very pleasant surprise this season, but the party is apparently over. One week after losing a key offensive lineman (Davin Joseph) and starter in the secondary (Cody Grimm), they lose another key offensive lineman (Jeff Faine) and the best starter in the secondary (Aqib Talib). There is simply not enough supporting talent for this team to overcome those major losses.
But that doesn?t mean they won?t win in Washington, where the Redskins are quickly imploding. They still have LeGarrette Blount, who should find running room even without Faine and Joseph against a Washington run defense that ranks right up there in the ?Most Disappointing Unit? lists for this season. The Skins are in the midst of a bad run of committing turnovers, and their offensive line has not been playing well lately. Perhaps Washington will be rejuvenated by the Haynesworth suspension, or the fact they?re playing at home against a team they feel they are superior to but has a much better record. I think the latter comes into play, and with the Bucs? injuries it provides enough of a window for a Washington win. Redskins 17, Bucs 15.
NY Giants (7) at Minnesota (16): You might wonder why I rank the Vikings so highly despite their 5-7 record and being essentially eliminated from playoff contention. I?ve been incredibly impressed with how the team has responded to Leslie Frazier as the interim coach. This is a very talented team that is now playing to get a beloved coach to keep his job. That?s powerful incentive, and this is the Minnesota team most of us thought we would get all year, a Super Bowl-caliber team with a potent offense and a vicious defense.
The area of most improvement has been the pass defense, both the rush up front and the coverage on the back end. With the Giants likely still without Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, they?re much easier to cover. I really like the home field here for the Vikings as well. The place should be rocking, and that?s trouble for Eli Manning without his two best and most trusted receivers. I just get the feeling the Vikings are in a nice groove right now, one that carries them to a win here. Minnesota 29, New York 24.
St. Louis (20) at New Orleans (5): This shapes up as a very likely Wild Card round playoff preview, assuming the Rams can hold on in the putrid NFC West. A win here would go a long ways towards ensuring that, but they stand very little chance of making that happen. Here?s three reasons why:
1. This is their third road game in a row, and they won the first two by beating Denver and Arizona. Not exactly Murderer?s Row. Since 1996, just three teams have won three road games in three successive weeks--and all those teams finished with at least 13 wins. These Rams are 6-6 against one of the weakest schedules in the league.
2. New Orleans is piling up points lately, topping 30 points in each of their last four games. The Rams have broken 30 once, in their win against Denver--a team that has given up more than 100 more points than the Saints. St. Louis simply doesn?t have the firepower to keep up.
3. The Saints are an experienced bunch that understands how to turn up the intensity down the stretch. As great a story as the resurgent Rams are this season, they?re a team with an inexperienced coach, a rookie QB, and youngsters with no winning experience playing all over the field.
It all adds up to a Saints victory. New Orleans 31, St. Louis 14.
Sunday Bloody Sunday:
Cleveland (17) at Buffalo (30): Every week there is a game or two where the bookies surprise me. This game is one of them. Buffalo goes off as a 1.5 point favorite despite being 2-10 and just getting annihilated by Minnesota. The Browns are 5-7 but have won four of their last six and have a much more consistent defense.
I asked a bookie friend of mine about this one, and he responded that the Browns tend to play to the level of competition. They play great against the New Englands and New Orleans of the world, but struggle when playing dog meat (his words) like the Panthers and Bengals. There?s some truth in that, but I just don?t see Buffalo having any success slowing down Peyton Hillis and the Browns excellent power run blocking. These Browns are built for inclement weather games like this one figures to be, and a lot of Browns backers will make the three-hour drive east along I-90 to support their team. The bookies have given you an opening here, and I suggest you take it. Cleveland 21, Buffalo 17.
Green Bay (8) at Detroit (28): Let?s just get this out of the way up front: Green Bay is going to win this game, period. The question becomes, can they cover the 6.5 point spread?
That?s tricky. The Lions are 5-1 against the spread at home, and even with third-stringer Drew Stanton at QB they have shown they can move the ball and put up points. Green Bay has struggled all season covering tight ends, and the Lions happen to have a very underappreciated pair in Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew, not to mention Calvin Johnson commanding at least one extra defender on every snap. Will a Green Bay team that still isn?t much of a running threat (though improving!) be able to outscore the Lions by a touchdown?
I think they will, and the injury to Kyle VandenBosch is the big reason. The Lions have surprisingly strong depth on the DL, but he is the ringleader and the one player that allows them to present all sorts of different looks and fronts. Aaron Rodgers is too good for the Lions to contain without KVDB. Green Bay wins what looks like an entertaining shootout, 38-30.
Denver (29) at Arizona (31): About the only intrigue here is how the Broncos respond to their new coach, former RB coach Eric Studesville. He?s not even remotely considered a candidate for the job long-term, so don?t anticipate the bounce that Dallas and Minnesota got from going with Jason Garrett and Leslie Frazier?guys that both the owners and the players want to see succeed and get the interim tag removed. The Denver defense showed some life last week, keeping the Chiefs frustrated all day in the 10-6 loss.
Perhaps no unit in the league underachieves more than the Arizona secondary. That means Kyle Orton will have some opportunities, and other than a couple of off weeks he?s been more than game to cash those in. I think he will here too against an Arizona team. Rookie John Skelton might get the start for the Cardinals, who have not won since Week 5 and have just one offensive TD in the last three games--an end-of-game hail mary that cut the score to 31-13 in the loss to Kansas City. Denver gets the interim coach magic, but it?s nothing more than coincidental luck of playing what has been the worst team in the league since Halloween. Denver 27, Arizona 12.
Atlanta (3) at Carolina (32): I decided to evaluate this game by projecting which players on Carolina?s offense would start for the Falcons. I got three--center Ryan Kalil, left tackle Jordan Gross and wideout Steve Smith (who would greatly resent being second banana to Roddy White). There are only two others--LG Travelle Wharton (who is doubtful with a bad toe) and RB Jonathan Stewart who would be the primary backups at their respective positions. The disparity between the offensive talent on these two franchises is stunning. Falcons 27, Panthers 10.
Cincinnati (27) at Pittsburgh (2): On paper this sure looks like an easy Pittsburgh walkover. I?m here to warn you to not dismiss the upset.
Seriously. The Bengals put together their most impressive effort in two months last week against the Saints, and they would love nothing more than to pee in Pittsburgh?s hot chocolate. Pittsburgh is banged up and coming off a short week after the violent Baltimore game. History also indicates that even when the Bengals are pathetic, they have a nasty habit of playing quite well in December. Four times in the last 13 years they have entered December with less than 4 wins and promptly won at least 3 of their last four games. That includes a couple of shocking upsets of Pittsburgh. The talent is still in place in Cincy to pull it off.
Ah, who am I kidding?!? No way the Steelers choke on this Bengals bone, even with Big Ben battered and their OL a M.A.S.H. unit. Just be real careful if you?re giving the 9 points or trying to extend your survivor fantasy pool. Pittsburgh escapes with a 20-17 win.
Seattle (23) at San Francisco (26): Alex Smith returns as the quarterback for the Niners. That makes this game pretty easy to script:
Seattle jumps out to an early lead, but the Niners claw back and hold a small lead headed into the 4th quarter. Then Smith will turn the ball over twice, the Niners defense will break down on a seam route coverage and surrender an inexplicable score, and Seattle holds on after an impressive death-gasp drive by SF ends up being too little too late. Seahawks mercifully end the Niners? playoff delusions with a 26-24 road win.
Monday Nighter:
Baltimore (10) at Houston (22): The teams that have given Baltimore trouble are defenses that can bring pressure on Joe Flacco while mixing up coverages behind the rush. Alas, the Texans can do neither. Houston does have a puncher?s chance in a shootout, but their O-line will have to dramatically raise its game to make that happen against a Ravens defense that is still fiery and dangerous. The Texans have been 5-7 each of the last three years and have won at least three of their last four every time, but this year just feels different with the unspoken acknowledgment that Coach Kubiak is a goner even if they win out. Baltimore 33, Houston 27.
