Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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This week?s $.10 is brought to you from the beautiful Tradewinds Resort in St. Petersburg, Florida, where my family celebrated the wedding of my cousin Brett to the wonderful Kiersten. May the new Mr. and Mrs. Kaplan have many years of health, love, and happiness which they deserve!
As a result of the weekend festivities, many of this week?s cents are shorter than normal. Blame the ample tequila and grapefruit juice I imbibed and my hyperactive children, who don?t understand that when Daddy slides into the hotel room at 1:30 AM that he really doesn?t appreciate being climbed on at 6:12 AM. I need a vacation from my vacation.
$.01-- The lead game of interest in the Risdon family was the Browns/Jaguars contest, which I got the pleasure of watching with all my immediate family--all rabid Browns fans. And for the second week in a row the Browns blew a golden opportunity for a win thanks to one terrible play of awful tackling.
Close but no cigar, again. I?m sure my family speaks for all of Browns nation with my dad?s exasperated ?Ugh!? when Colt McCoy?s final pass got picked off, sending the Browns to 3-7. Another strong effort from the very legit Peyton Hillis gets wasted, another start where Colt McCoy sure looks like a very promising QB of the future down the drain.
There are many silver linings with Cleveland this year, but they can?t obscure the dark cloud of reality. This team is 3-7 and likely to finish with double-digit losses. In today?s NFL, that means someone?s gotta pay. Eric Mangini is the obvious candidate; most people point to performances in close games as a strong indicator of coaching, and the Browns lose every game they haven?t blown out the opponent. But I like what The Mangenius has done with a roster devoid of stars and seriously limited in the passing offense. He?s taken a lot of crap over the years--some from me--but I continue to be impressed with his Xs and Os and the effort he gets from his players.
$.02-- The Jets/Texans game illustrated the difference between teams that know how to win and teams that know how to lose. New York came from behind for a dramatic late TD (again!) after giving up a seemingly safe lead, showing great poise, confidence, and efficiency in moving to 8-2. Meanwhile, the Texans woeful defense got carved like an underdone ham (again!) as the Texans dropped their 3rd in a row and five of their last six.
That loss cements this season as another lost year for Houston, a franchise that will continue their playoff drought and spend the winter wondering how it all went south. The inept pass defense will be the primary culprit, but it only masks the stench of a group of players with no idea how to play winning football for 60 minutes. Houston scored 20 points in a row in the 4th quarter to come from out of nowhere to seize the lead, but there was little doubt in my mind the Jets would come back and steal the win.
Learning how to win starts with believing that you are going to win. Watching Mark Sanchez and the Jets offensive line on the final series, there was clearly no doubt in their minds they were going to score the winning touchdown. It showed in their posture, their play-calling, and their execution. There was no panic, no pressure-induced brain freezes or mental errors, and no doubt they were going to succeed. On the flip side, The Texans defense was tentative and looked scared to fail. I?m not always a fan of the Rex Ryan swagger, but he inspires that sort of chutzpah in his players. Texans coach (perhaps not much longer) Gary Kubiak coaches like a guy worried about losing and getting fired, and it shows in his players.
$.03-- Green Bay annihilated Minnesota in a game that had to feel real good for the Cheesehead nation. The evisceration of the hated Vikings does two things. First, it slams the door on Minnesota once and for all this year. But more importantly to the Packer Backers, it destines Brett Favre to play out the string in irrelevant obscurity. That is a nightmare for a hyper-competitive media whore like #4.
I just wish Packers fans could see themselves in the mirror right now. Three summers ago they were ready to string up GM Ted Thompson from the highest tree for moving on from Favre to Aaron Rodgers. The message boarders wanted blood for ushering out the old and starting fresh with the new. The first post-Favre season didn?t help Thompson?s cause, but look at it now. Last year they made the playoffs and lost a heartbreaker in part on a bad no-call. Now they are 7-3 and tied for first place with the Bears, with a hot young QB leading a lethal wide-open passing attack. Had Thompson held onto Favre for one more season, this team would be without Rodgers and lucky to be 3-7...like the Favre-led Vikings, heading backwards quickly and facing a colossal rebuild. Yet many message boarders and talk radio know-it-alls still take every opportunity to slam Thompson for everything wrong with both their team and their lives. Many still cannot let go of the proven correct decision to send Favre out to pasture. It doesn?t matter that Green Bay is arguably the best team in the NFC and has a great chance to make multiple deep playoff runs for the next few seasons.
I also find their vitriol with Favre a little misplaced. Sure, now that he?s gone you can see his vapidity, his massive ego and how it dominates his team for better or worse (mostly worse these days). But that is precisely what endeared him to you for all those years, and it got you a Super Bowl win and years of prominence that had been painfully absent since Bart Starr hung ?em up. He forced the Packers hand to his exile to New York, and Minnesota was the most prudent landing spot after that experiment failed. Now he?s been the catalyst for dragging down your hated rival, inflicting damage that will take at least two down years to clean up. You have the better quarterback and you?ve had that since the minute Favre walked out the door. As Oasis famously sang, ?Don?t look back in anger.?
$.04-- Miami gave a vivid and disturbing argument against expanding the season to 18 games in a lifeless performance in the Thursday nighter. With several normal starters out and with more dropping like flies during the game, the Dolphins that got smoked by the Bears looked very little like the team Tony Sparano had three weeks ago, when they were looking like a playoff team. Now they are an injury-ravaged disaster that will be lucky to win another game.
This is very bad for the NFL, showing that the depth just isn?t there to survive additional weeks of injury-related attrition. Dolphins fans that expected Chad Henne, Jake Long and Brandon Marshall to spearhead the offensive attack instead get to watch weeks of Tyler Thigpen running for his life behind a line that will be missing at least three normal starters, throwing to backups and street free agents hungrily scoured off other practice squads. That?s great for ticket sales!
It?s not just Miami. Fans in Detroit, Carolina, Seattle, Indy and pretty much every other NFL city lament the crucial losses that come from the grind of a 16-game schedule. Obviously some teams handle the injuries better than others, but some of that is attributable to simply being a little healthier at certain spots than their opponents. Teams with successful, long-running systems tend to fare better (think Pittsburgh and the Giants), but there is a clear dropoff in their level of play even though they?re still winning. It?s not the product the NFL fans want, and adding two more games will only water down the product further unless two major modifications are made.
First, injured reserve must not be made season-ending. There should be 4, 8, 12, and full season designations, with a player only eligible to be placed on any IR once per season. That is certainly feasible and is very likely to happen. My second suggestion is a pipe dream with little chance of implementation: contraction. Already talent is spread too thin, and injuries only exacerbate the problem. Eliminating two teams would help make rosters deeper, and no jobs would be lost because the expanded season would also incorporate expanded rosters, plus the IR fill-ins. If some of these owners crying about losing money are truly serious, perhaps going out of business is the best solution for their problems...
$.05-- I said it earlier in the season and got ridiculed, but I?m telling you this for certain: Peyton Manning is starting to decline, even if it?s ever so slightly. I give him some benefit of the doubt for playing without Dallas Clark and with no running game, but he?s missing a few reads and throws every game that used to be automatic.
None were more obvious than the game-sealing INT Manning threw to James Sanders after the Colts staged an inspired comeback (needed because Manning was not sharp early) against the Patriots. There was pressure, but Manning has handled far more intense pressure before. He?s simply not on the same page as his receivers as often as he used to be. The trust factor from Manning appears to be waning, and it?s causing him to double-clutch some balls and deliver the throw a half-count later. It?s not every throw and it?s often just a minor adjustment for the receiver, but it?s the difference between Manning being the greatest QB in the Super Bowl era and Manning being one of a worthy group of Pro Bowlers. With the way the Colts have been ravaged with injuries on defense, that slight margin is going to be the difference between Manning leading the Colts to the AFC Championship game and Indy going out in the first round. Without the Peyton Manning and his worthy band of receivers of years past, this thinner, less potent Colts team is clearly inferior to Pittsburgh, New England, and New York. At this point I?m not sure they?re any better than Jacksonville or any of the AFC West playoff contenders.
$.06-- It?s getting ugly in Tennessee, where Coach Jeff Fisher has finally had enough of Vince Young. The embattled QB suffered a thumb injury during their surprising loss to the Redskins, but it?s what happened following the game that was the final straw. According to numerous reports, Young and Fisher had a confrontation that resulted in Young leaving the building in anger.
I?ve sided with Fisher many times before, and on this issue I am firmly in his support camp as well. What fascinates me is the media squawkers that side with Young, particularly the ex-players. Here?s a guy who doesn?t respect his coach and has never put forth the effort to make himself an elite QB. He doesn?t work out with his teammates, being noted for not dedicating himself during the offseason. Injuries are a recurring problem, as are turnovers. Young has made some great plays and has a strong winning percentage, but there?s always been this underlying tension that he was forced upon Fisher, and it?s finally come to a head.
This will be an interesting decision for the Titans. Jeff Fisher has essentially said, ?It?s him or me?.
Fisher won before Young and has won with Kerry Collins this year, and the rest of the players love, respect, and trust Fisher as their coach. But Young was hand-picked to be the face of the franchise, and he?s shown enough promise that it will not be an easy decision. I say it should be: put Young on IR right now and see how he responds. If he goes away and angrily sulks, good riddance. If he reads the writing on the wall and dedicated himself to improving and being a better teammate, then just maybe it?s worth trying one more time.
$.07-- While watching the early games, it seemed like every time they showed the ticker the Bengals had scored again. Their game went from 7-7 to 28-7 Cincy in a matter of minutes, and all looked right in the Jungle for the week. Carson Palmer looked dialed in, the defense scored a TD and was in firm control, and the fans were toasting the end of the month of inadequate play.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Ickey Shuffle renditions: the Buffalo Bills woke up. That?s right, the 1-8 Bills, a team that needed a last-second stand against the regressing Lions to notch their first win, stormed back and ran away with a 49-31 road win. Steve Johnson caught three touchdown passes and was basically uncovered the entire second half. The Bills defense made some nice adjustments and the offensive line found its stride, but this was all about Cincinnati completely collapsing on itself. There were some injuries, notably CB Jonathan Joseph, but the lack of fight in the dying dog tells me this once-promising core is ready to be put to sleep. Expect some major changes in Cincy, from coaches (in a mutual no-fault divorce) to wide receivers to perhaps even quarterback. Sadly I doubt nothing much changes until the owner and team president wake up and realize that just having the Brown family lineage doesn?t mean they know how to run a football organization.
$.08-- 5 NFL quickies:
1. I?ve spent all but five of my 38 years on earth living in 3 places: Northern Ohio, Michigan, and now Houston. Jets WR Santonio Holmes has made game-winning or game-changing catches three weeks in a row now, against Detroit, Cleveland, and now Houston. Too bad the Jets don?t have Washington or Indy left on the schedule, as those are the other general areas where I?ve lived.
2. I think the Danny Woodhead story is a great one, but if he played for the Rams or Jaguars I highly doubt normally respectable announcers would get such ragingly visible audio hard-ons for the guy. Control yourselves, boys...
3. Two in a row is nice, Cowboys fans. But you are still 3-7 and looking up at every NFC team but Carolina and Detroit. Judging by the volume, I think Dallas fans need the reminder.
4. So much for the Niners chances. Tampa was a beatable opponent and had never won in San Fran, but the home team came out flat. The Troy Smith boost has expired, and so have the SF playoff hopes with that 21-0 humiliation.
5. When the Lions brass decides on a scapegoat for yet another disappointing season, I sure hope they settle on defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham. His schemes are too paint-by-numbers, but the more alarming issue is the lack of in-season progress of the young talent that will be the core of this defense for years to come. Suh, Delmas, Hill, Levy, and all the corners are not being developed like they need to be.
$.09-- 5 college/draft quickies:
1. Ohio State came up huge by winning at Iowa on a late TD. That win essentially secures the Buckeyes a BCS at-large berth, because no fan base travels better than Ohio State. So long as they don?t blow it against Michigan and the worst defense of any BCS school in recent memory, Ohio State will get one of the two berths.
2. You probably haven?t noticed but Virginia Tech hasn?t lost since getting stunned by James Madison. The Hokies are arguably playing as well as any team in the country right now and will almost certainly win the bizarre ACC. That makes Boise State look all that much better for beating Beamer?s Boys in the opener.
3. About two months ago I wrote a glowing report on Florida State QB Christian Ponder. My how times change. In almost every time I?ve watched him since, Ponder has not shown the quick decision making or the confidence in his arm that made me love his potential earlier on. I do still think there is an NFL starter there for the right coach, but that optimism dims with every passing week.
4. I gave Jake Locker another long look in the Washington/UCLA game, but I learned nothing new. I still see a scattershot gunslinger that can be phenomenal at times but makes his receivers work far too often and doesn?t read defenses well. The numbers in the game were a bit too negative--he had a picture-perfect seam route throw wiped out by one of the myriad penalties that made the game last at least an hour too long--but I still see a guy who is better in theory than in reality.
5. Normally I can?t stand Mark May on ESPN, but I found his candid attack on his alma mater very bold and refreshing. In slamming Pittsburgh for being decidedly unworthy of a BCS slot even though they will win the Big East?s automatic bid, May raged against the machine and bit the hand that fed him to the College Hall of Fame. Good on you, Mr. May, and I agree with your opinion.
$.10-- 10 humble predictions for the rest of the season:
1. The Seattle Seahawks will win the NFC West with a 7-9 record, three games worse than the second NFC Wild Card and two games worse than one team (my guess: the Bucs) that will watch the playoffs from the outside.
2. Another serious injury like the scary Ellis Hobbs incident Sunday night will lead the NFL to evaluate the process and necessity of kickoffs. There are a disproportionate number of injuries suffered on kickoffs, many of them serious.
3. The Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals are both done adding to their win columns.
4. Brett Favre will take every snap for the rest of the season in Minnesota in a vain attempt to inflate his numerous records to where Peyton Manning will need to play 12 more years to break them.
5. The New England Patriots will be the #1 seed in the AFC by virtue of beating Pittsburgh, and the Philadelphia Eagles will be the NFC?s #1 seed by virtue of beating Atlanta. Regular season games matter.
6. Oakland will continue to juggle QBs all the way to an 8-8 record.
7. The Houston Texans will make it known that Mario Williams is readily available this offseason, sowing the seeds for giving up on the sporadically awesome, largely average #1 overall pick from 2006.
8. Jason Garrett will get the interim label removed as the Cowboys finish by winning four of their final six, which would make Garrett 6-2 as coach.
9. Reggie Bush will return to New Orleans with a vengeance, allowing the Saints heretofore sputtering offense to regain its vitality.
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to show enough that the Bills will commit to him as the long-term answer at QB, and Steve Johnson will be widely lauded as the waiver-wire fantasy football pickup of the year.
