Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 7-9
There is great temptation to overreact to Week 1, particularly if you listen to a lot of sports talk radio. It?s very easy to read too much into one game, especially one that produced a stunning result for a team. But some true colors and legit surprises have been revealed. The trick is discerning what is real and what is aberration. Bookies love Week 2 because too many people mistake aberration for reality and lay money on those false positives (or negatives). My general rule of thumb: teams that were unexpectedly good at home or with a big game from a surprise source are fool?s gold, but teams that laid eggs on the road or had a superstar having a bad day are safe bets to bounce back.
Chicago (19) at Dallas (8): It?s been interesting to see the reaction of Bears fans to their Week 1 ?win? over Detroit. Many fans focus on the careless turnovers and the fact they needed divine intervention to squeak past the lowly Lions, while some are gung-ho over the huge offensive numbers and a mostly dominant defensive performance. I think the last point there is the key to this game: the Bears defense. Dallas has arguably the worst OL in the league, and Tony Romo has always fared better against man coverage than the zone which Chicago deploys. But the Lovie Smith Bears have a nasty history of getting overconfident on defense and subsequently getting their heads handed to them. Dallas has enough weapons to keep the defense from focusing on one particular area and exploit the vulnerable Chicago safeties. I also love Dallas? defensive front against the Bears own substandard OL, which was thoroughly dominated by the Lions, and those Bears offensive turnovers were no fluke. Chicago?s God-awful red zone offense was no fluke either. Dallas gets in the win column with a 33-13 drubbing of the visiting Bears.
Miami (18) at Minnesota (4): Miami came out relatively flat in their opener, but still had just enough to beat Buffalo. That isn?t going to fly in Minnesota, but I?m not sure even their best shot will take down the Vikings if Minnesota brings their own strong effort. The Vikings OL isn?t great, but they are better equipped to handle 3-man fronts like Miami?s, as the tackles can focus wider and not have to worry about twists or stunts or B-gap blitzes. Plus those massive tackles can block down and open up some big-time breakout lanes for Adrian Peterson. I also really like the Minnesota defensive front seven against a shaky Miami front, which has very big problems between the tackles. The home crowd, the air of desperation, the favorable matchup, it all equals my survivor fantasy pick for this week. Minnesota 27, Miami 17.
Arizona (14) at Atlanta (17): I would like the Cardinals chances a lot more here if both Beanie Wells and Early Doucet were at full strength, but Doucet is out and Beanie questionable. Arizona needs all hands on deck offensively against an Atlanta defense that played very well, save one bad play in overtime in Pittsburgh. My confidence level in Cards QB Derek Anderson just isn?t high enough to merit a victory forecast, though I do really like the Arizona defense in this matchup. Atlanta 24, Arizona 20.
New Orleans (1) at San Francisco (24): The Saints earned a sloppy win over the Vikings, leaving lots of points on the field but generally playing just well enough to win. The Niners were spectacularly egregious, going 1-15 on third down and having their OL get annihilated by a pretty mediocre Seattle defense. What really scares me for the Niners in this matchup is how poorly their secondary played after the opening couple of drives; their corners aren?t great and the safeties were flat-out lost in trying to help. Seattle threw all over it, and now they draw Drew Brees & Co. Even if they can dial up the defensive effort, those problems on the OL aren?t going away easily against Gregg Williams? pressure schemes. Losing C Eric Heitmann in the preseason was a highly underappreciated loss, particularly with two rookies starting on the line. It will get worse before it gets better, even at home. New Orleans 30, San Francisco 10.
NY Giants (13) at Indianapolis (6): Intriguing test for the Giants, who opened against a Panthers team with a shaky QB situation, exactly one NFL-caliber receiver, and a powerful running game that bears little fruit when trailing. Now they get the Colts with Peyton Manning and his band of merry receivers, a team that defines ?balance? as running 40% of the time, often quite ineffectively. That makes the Colts a much bigger threat against the Giants, whose defense gets progressively worse the further they get from the line of scrimmage. I?m also intrigued by how well Brandon Jacobs can run against a Colts defensive front that got completely annihilated by a mediocre Texans OL. In theory this should be a golden opportunity for Jacobs, but he hasn?t run with punishing authority in a long time. I like the home cooking and the pass rush for the Colts to notch a win. Peyton Manning 27, Eli Manning 23.
New England (2) at NY Jets (20): There?s a great chicken/egg debate surrounding Mark Sanchez and the Jets miserable offensive performance Monday night. Was Sanchez being too careful and skittish, or was he simply doing what the coaches have drilled into him since the day he signed, quickly checking down and taking care of the ball? I can?t definitively answer that, but I know this: Bill Belichick doesn?t give a damn. The Sanchize will have to stand tall and look more downfield or else the running game will once again fall flat against a Pats defense that has seen this movie a few times before. On the flip side, the Jets defense played pretty darn well in the opener and is well-equipped to handle New England--if they stop with the penalties and mix up the coverages on Wes Welker, something they did quite well a year ago. For New York this is as much of a must-win game for a Week Two contest as you?ll ever encounter, and that exacerbates the massive coaching discrepancy in this one. A wise old friend/mentor of mine, Paul McGrady, had a saying, ?All sizzle and no steak always leaves you hungry.? Rex Ryan is all sizzle, a bombastic display of too much lighter fluid and charcoal; Bill Belichick is a 20 ounce T-Bone, perfectly grilled over even heat by a savvy grillmaster. Yum! Pats 23, Jets 10.
Jacksonville (16) at San Diego (9): I came away quite impressed with the Jaguars defense in their opener. While they weren?t perfect, they were solid, aggressive, and displayed good cohesive movement as a unit. San Diego struggled offensively without Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill, but the bigger problem was the utter ineffectiveness of the running game against what looks to be a very weak Kansas City front. Maybe that will change at home, but I have a feeling the history of slow starts under Norv Turner doesn?t get turned around here. Jacksonville was one of my sleeper playoff teams, and nothing I saw in their efficient Week One win makes me feel any differently. In this week?s upset special, Jacksonville goes into San Diego and comes away with a 23-20 win. Maybe that gets McNeill and Jackson enough leverage that GM A.J. Smith caves in and gets new deals done, but that?s probably wishful thinking for Bolts fans.
Baltimore (3) at Cincinnati (7): The Bengals D laid a giant egg in the opener, while the Ravens D looked in Super Bowl form. I expect a move towards the middle on both fronts, but I?m not sure I trust Carson Palmer to take enough advantage of the suspect Ravens secondary. Baltimore?s offense has enough ability to both run and pass that they can find which one works and ride it. Then there?s the payback factor; don?t think the Ravens aren?t reminded repeatedly that Cincinnati swept them a year ago and that kept the Ravens from the division title. Even in The Jungle, that will carry the Ravens to a 20-16 win.
Buffalo (32) at Green Bay (10): This just might be the easiest game of the entire season to forecast...which makes me worry. Every time a seeming lead pipe lock game comes across, something very strange happens. There?s absolutely no way I?ll pick the Bills, but an upset here is probably a little more likely than anyone outside of Orchard Park thinks it is, for no viable reason whatsoever. Green Bay 31, Buffalo 13.
Philadelphia (21) at Detroit (29): Philly will play this game minus four Week 1 starters, all of whom line up in the middle of the formation: QB Kevin Kolb, C Jamaal Jackson, FB Leonard Weaver and MLB Stewart Bradley. In most cases that would spell imminent doom, but the host Lions will be without QB Matt Stafford themselves. The key matchups will be up front on the lines, as both teams feature very good defensive lines but suspect O-lines. Look for Detroit to do a better job at containing Michael Vick?s running, but if Andy Reid can come up with some tweaks that conform the offense more to Vick?s strengths the Eagles should be fine. Should. Detroit can win if it forces turnovers like last week and Shaun Hill plays the entire game the way he played the final drive, or more to the point if OC Scott Linehan allows him to do that. With extremely low confidence, I?ll take the Eagles 20-10.
Pittsburgh (5) at Tennessee (15): Pittsburgh did exactly what so many of their fans demanded they do sans Big Ben: they pounded the ball and brought the defensive intensity at a fever pitch. That was easier to do at home, and as much as I like Matt Ryan, I think Vince Young?s mobility and creativity pose much more of a threat to the Steelers. Having Chris Johnson and his ability to turn a slight crease into a 70-yard TD helps too. Tennessee?s defense doesn?t have the names of their counterparts here, but no rookie defender was more impressive to me than Derrick Morgan last week, who bagged a sack and broke up a pass while strongly setting the edge. I think the defensive improvements in Tennessee are legit, certainly legit enough to handle Dennis Dixon?s sporadic accuracy and inability to stick with longer routes. Titans 17, Steelers 10.
Seattle (26) at Denver (22): Seattle pulled off a major stunner last week in dominating the 49ers, but this week is a road game against a more diverse offense with a QB in Kyle Orton that understands how to find the weak points in the defense. That aptly describes Matt Hasselbeck too, and that means this game probably comes down to running the ball and special teams. I give both of those advantages to the home team, but not by much. Denver in a 30-27 squeaker.
Tampa Bay (27) at Carolina (23): Two of the least impressive offenses in the league square off in Charlotte. I was dismayed by how poorly Tampa?s OL played against the Browns, but they might fare better here against a less-aggressive Panthers D that likes to read and react. Tampa really only did anything when their own defense forced turnovers, but something stands out: Cleveland attempted 37 passes and the young Tampa Bay front registered just 3 QB hurries and zero sacks. That means those INTs were more Jake Delhomme?s problem than anything special by the Tampa defense. Tampa probably lucks into having rookie Jimmy Clausen make his first NFL start, but it?s hard to imagine him being any more careless or less effective than Matt Moore or Delhomme has been here. I don?t see Carolina scoring a lot, but I still think they?ll be able to break enough long runs and spring Steve Smith--their only passing weapon--at least once. The Panthers almost never lose to Tampa at home, and that trend continues in what figures to be an aesthetically unpleasant game. Carolina 16, Tampa Bay 13.
Houston (11) at Washington (12): I moved to Houston last week and it?s been a real treat basking in the sky-high optimism and buzz here surrounding the Texans. Being from Cleveland, I?ve been programmed to never get so high and so positive about my local sports teams, because it makes the cold, cruel, inevitable reality all the more crushing. Washington is a vastly different animal than the Colts, one with a physical and talented defense at all levels and a balanced offense that can keep Mario Williams and Antonio Smith from pinning their ears back on every snap. The naysayers regarding the Ethnic Slurs point out that Dallas essentially handed them the game, but it?s been my experience that Mike Shanahan teams excel at both creating and seizing opportunities in close games. I expect this one to be close, but I think this is a game where the Texans really miss Brian Cushing, as they have no answer for Chris Cooley without him. Washington 26, Houston 24.
St. Louis (31) at Oakland (28): I expect the Raiders to come out angry after being embarrassed last week by Chris Johnson & Co., but the variable here is how well they can channel that anger. Some teams play better angry, some don?t. One bright spot was how well Darren McFadden ran the ball, showing better toughness than he has before. St. Louis hung tough with Arizona but showed all the classic signs of a team that doesn?t yet know how to win. Oakland is beatable, but I think the Raiders are ready to rock the Black Hole and give Sam Bradford fits. Raiders 24, Rams 13.
Kansas City (25) at Cleveland (30): The Chiefs are the epitome of the ?Fool?s Gold? team I laid out in the opener: big upset win at home thanks to some unexpected contributors having big days, a superstar opponent having a bad day, and weather conditions that greatly played to their strengths. Normally that would make them a very lousy pick the next week, but they appear to match up quite well against the Browns. Cleveland showed me a very solid defense, but the offense lacks anyone that can ease pressure off the running game, even with great protection. If the Browns can win the turnover battle and strike early, I think they?ll feed off the anxious home crowd and win. But with Jake Dehomme iffy both health-wise and turnover-wise, my money is on the Chiefs to somehow pull the upset. Kansas City goes to 2-0 by winning in Cleveland, 19-17.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Last Week: 4-1
Iowa 33, Arizona 12
Florida 31, Tennessee 22
Texas 37, Texas Tech 33
Michigan State 20, Notre Dame 18
Ohio State 34, Ohio University 10. Apologies to my fellow Bobcats.
