Knowshon Moreno, Donovan McNabb, Mike Shanahan and David Garrard enter pivotal seasons where they will be scrutinized if they do not perform at a high level.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Some of these predictions are the equivalent of Hail Mary passes, but several will connect by the time February hits.
1. The last team to lose a game will be the San Diego Chargers, who run out to a 10-0 start before losing at Indianapolis in Week 12. For their part, the Colts will lose their opener at Houston and then not lose again until their annual ?rest the starters? period, which starts in Week 13 after the Dallas game.
2. For the first season in a few years every team wins at least three games, though looking at Buffalo I?m not sure how they pull it off. The Bills will use the first pick in the 2011 draft on Stanford QB Andrew Luck.
3. Tim Tebow will start the final nine games for Denver, going 3-6 while throwing 12 TDs and 14 INTs on the season. He?ll also rush for 3 TDs, making him the rookie QB leader in rushing TDs, passing TDs, wins as a starter, and QB rating.
4. Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco peacefully coexist--for the most part. They?ll prove there are in fact enough balls to go around, but it will be the Bengals underrated defense that ensures a return trip to the playoffs.
5. The rumors of the Jaguars leaving Jacksonville for Los Angeles grow to a fever pitch when the team fails to sell more than half the seats to any of their final five home games...despite unexpectedly being in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. This will be their last full season in northern Florida.
6. Arizona captures another NFC West title by being the only team in the division that winds up with more than seven wins. Matt Leinart will put up almost exactly the same numbers as Mark Sanchez does for the Jets, yet Sanchez will make the Pro Bowl with great fanfare while most media declare Leinart a big disappointment.
7. The first coach fired is Brad Childress in Minnesota, a stage that has already been set by Favre?s alleged comments about him this offseason (I don?t buy those FYI). The Week 8 loss at New England that drops the team to 3-4 is the final straw. Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier takes over for Childress and leads the team to a 7-2 finish that sneaks them into the playoffs.
8. Kevin Kolb throws for 1200 yards more than Donovan McNabb, also doubling his TD pass total. Some of that is a reflection of their wide receiving corps. The Eagles won?t make the playoffs but it won?t be Kolb?s fault, it will be because their defense can?t keep other teams from outscoring them often enough.
9. Everyone has rushed to draft Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson with the first two picks in nearly every fantasy league, but they will not be the top two fantasy RBs this year. That distinction goes to Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew, both of whom will score 15+ TDs and rush for over 1400 yards. The fifth RB in the mix is DeAngelo Williams.
10. More DeAngelo Williams! He and Jonathan Stewart become the first RB tandem to each rush for more than 1000 yards in back-to-back seasons, thanks in part to Carolina?s great offensive line. The Panthers are the NFC?s biggest surprise, making the playoffs despite not having more than one game where their QB throws for more than 250 yards. Stewart will rush for 1003 yards but gets hurt on the final effort that gets him over the hump.
11. A rash of early injuries to prominent players in high-profile teams will provide the impetus needed to get all sides to agree to IR reform as part of the next CBA. No longer will a 6-8 week injury suffered in Week 3 need to shelve a player for the rest of the season, a change that has been long overdue.
12. The Raiders will sever ties with 2008 first round pick Darren McFadden, dealing him for a 3rd/4th round pick just before the trade deadline. Paired with this summer?s release of 2007 #1 overall JaMarcus Russell, the Raiders have nothing to show for consecutive top-four draft picks just over three seasons later. They?ll still finish with an improved record despite those horrific draft blunders, as last year?s 1st rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey significantly improves and this year?s 1st rounder, LB Rolando McClain contends for rookie of the year.
13. This will be the final NFL season for a host of very prominent players. Among them: Brett Favre, Brian Urlacher, Tony Gonzalez, LaDanian Tomlinson, Randy Moss, Ray Lewis, Champ Bailey, Steve Hutchinson, Darren Sharper and Brian Dawkins. Good luck sorting out who gets into the Hall of Fame in 2016!
14. Logan Mankins, Vincent Jackson, Marcus McNeill and Darrelle Revis all sit out until the regular season begins in their various contract disputes. The biggest impact will fall on the Patriots, who have nobody close to being able to replace their Pro Bowl guard, who is also the most likely to sit out all year. For all his histrionics, Revis will be the first of this group to sign and will not miss more than two games.
15. The Browns will have a stretch of 15 consecutive quarters without an offensive touchdown, which will lead to majordomo Mike Holmgren firing Eric Mangini after the season and replacing him with...Mike Holmgren. Colt McCoy will not take a snap despite the production woes.
16. 49ers coach Mike Singletary mercifully pulls the plug on the failed Alex Smith experiment once and for all after an ugly, Delhomme-esque Week 7 loss to the Panthers drops the team to 2-5. Replacement David Carr won?t be great but he?ll be better than Smith, and the Niners will win four of their next five games.
Similarly, Kansas City will yank Matt Cassel for Brodie Croyle before Week 10, at the increasingly vocal begging of teammates who see every day in practice how much better Croyle is than Cassel, easily the most overpaid player in the league.
17. Three prominent players that changed locations this offseason fail to deliver on the heightened expectations. Anquan Boldin in Baltimore, Antrell Rolle with the Giants, and Julius Peppers in Chicago all have good-but-not-great seasons, and the fans of those new teams will feel cheated. I?d say the same about LT with the Jets but it appears expectations are rightfully low. One former Jet exceeds expectations: Thomas Jones in Kansas City outrushes his New York replacement Shonn Greene.
18. The Defensive Rookie of the Year will be Eagles DE Brandon Graham, who will lead all rookies with 10.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. Playing a prominent role on a fairly prominent team gets Graham the nod over both Rolando McClain and Ndamukong Suh, both of whom will also be worthy of votes. Sleeper pick: Joe Haden in Cleveland. Deep Sleeper Pick: Pat Angerer of the Colts.
19. Speaking of Suh?s Lions, their defense will not finish dead last once again. They will rise up to 28th, thanks to a very good front four. They will once again lead the league in opposing TD passes because their corners remain dreadful. Matt Stafford and the offense will score enough to keep the team much more competitive most weeks than in recent years.
20. The Offensive Rookie of the Year will be Chargers RB Ryan Mathews, who will rush for 1207 yards on 272 carries, scoring 7 TDs. C.J. Spiller of the Bills and Detroit?s Jahvid Best will finish 2nd and 3rd, an impressive feat considering their two teams won?t win eight games combined. Sleeper pick: Mike Williams in Tampa Bay.
21. At least two players will be detained at the border while returning from trips abroad to play in Toronto and London, both for possessing illegal substances. Commissioner Roger Goodell immediately suspends both for the remainder of the season without listening to their sides of the story, further driving a wedge between the league and the NFLPA.
22. Jay Cutler doesn?t last 10 games as the Bears starting QB, unable to put up with the repeated pounding he suffers behind a subpar line and the unrealistic dropback time needed to run Mike Martz?s creative but risky offense. On the flip side, Matt Forte has a great rebound season and rewards fantasy owners with double-digit TDs and 1700 combined yards.
23. The two most hyped teams this offseason, the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets, will both miss the playoffs. In Green Bay, the culprits will be a poor OL and leaky pass defense, while the Jets flounder as Mark Sanchez falls well behind fellow sophomores Matt Stafford and Josh Freeman and the downgraded run game cannot compensate. Bookies everywhere rejoice at overconfident homers that ignored the very real holes on both teams.
24. Chris Johnson falls well short of his 2500 yard prediction, getting 1518 yards on 322 carries, plus 41 catches for 462 yards and 12 total TDs. Mo Jones-Drew will beat him across the board statistically, plus wind up with more team wins. The fall-off will be much more significant for Brandon Jacobs, who gets just 492 yards on 178 carries before losing his spot in the rotation to Andre Brown.
25. The 2010 NFL MVP will be Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who edges out Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Colts QB Peyton Manning in a very tight race. None of them will lead the league in passing yards, however. That distinction will go to Drew Brees once again, though the Saints QB won?t top 4000 yards or 30 TDs this year.
26. The Steelers start the season 1-3 without Ben Roethlisberger, but the real shock comes when he returns to the lineup and the team falls to 2-6 before reeling off 5 wins in their next 6 games. Problems at WR and the OL stymie Pittsburgh?s offensive production, and special teams woes counterbalance a very good defense that will lead the league in sacks.
27. Brett Favre can?t replicate the 2009 magic, but still throws for over 3000 yards and 21 TDs. The 16 INTs and the intermittent losses of Percy Harvin will really hurt. Fortunately for Minnesota fans the run defense once again ranks in the top 5, Jared Allen bags another 15.5 sacks, and the secondary quietly improves.
28. The Defensive Player of the Year will be Redskins OLB Brian Orakpo, who leads the league with 19.5 sacks in the new 3-4 scheme that is tailor made for his skills. He will give credit to Albert Haynesworth, who will shut up and play very well once the regular season begins, save one last outburst to test Mike Shanahan. Shanahan will quickly win that battle, and the Redskins defense will finish in the top 5.
29. Some players I predict will have breakout successful seasons: Lions DE Cliff Avril, Redskins S Kareem Moore, Bears WR Rashied Davis, Jaguars T Eben Britton, Browns NT Ahtyba Rubin, Cardinals WR Early Doucet, Raiders DE Matt Shaughnessy, Panthers S Charles Godfrey, Redskins TE Fred Davis, Falcons LB Stephen Nicholas, Dolphins QB Chad Henne, and Giants TE Bear Pascoe.
30. Field goal kicking percentage reaches an all-time high. Part of the credit will go to an increasing willingness of coaches to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking 50+ yard field goals, a trend that will pay off in more touchdowns and place more of an emphasis on heavy formations using extra linemen.
31. The shifting of the umpire into the backfield produces two main consequences. Foremost will be an increase in the amount of defensive holding and illegal use of hands penalties. The other byproduct will be an inadvertent slowing down of no-huddle and hurry-up offenses, which Peyton Manning and the Colts have discovered in the preseason. The umpire has further to run and farther to travel to get set after placing the ball, which costs the offense at least 2 seconds on every snap.
32. I don?t pick Super Bowl winners, but I?ll give you my final four: Cincinnati vs. New England in the AFC, Dallas vs. New Orleans in the NFC.
