Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Now that the major roster moves are done, it?s easier to look ahead and see which players really need to have good seasons in order for their teams to achieve.
Here are five that stand out to me:
1. Calvin Johnson--The Lions wideout has periodically dominated, but the first three years of his career have not produced what the Lions hoped for when they drafted him #2 overall in 2007. Several minor injuries have blunted his output, and lackluster QB play has hindered his progress. For the Lions to make a giant leap forward, it?s time for Johnson to put up significantly more than his 64 catch, 1022 yard, 7 TD career season average. Those numbers aren?t bad, but they?re not the numbers of a legit #1 wide receiver on a good team. With Matt Stafford coming back after a solid rookie year under his belt, and with vastly improved weaponry (Burleson, Scheffler, Best, Pettigrew) around him, it?s time for Johnson to live up to the hype.
I equate it to another highly drafted Johnson, Andre in Houston. Andre Johnson put up good-not-great numbers his first few seasons before breaking out into an elite All-Pro talent once the Texans got him both a capable QB and a decent supporting cast. Anything short of 80 catches for 1400 yards and 10 TDs will be a disappointment for Calvin Johnson this season, because the talent and opportunity are there. For the Lions to threaten 8 wins--which would be a resounding success--Calvin Johnson must consistently produce the monster numbers most everyone expected of him already.
2. Joe Flacco--Baltimore finally went out and got a legit threat at wide receiver in Anquan Boldin. With their potent running game, a sturdy offensive line, and a defense that can create opportunities, the pressure is squarely on Flacco to fulfill the promise.
I believe too many people were too hasty to anoint greatness upon Flacco, who has been good but often deceptively so. Against playoff teams last year (CINx2, SD, NE, IND, GB, MIN) Flacco?s numbers are downright pedestrian: 60% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt, 8 TDs and 10 INTs, but most important is the 1-6 record in those games. Against the rest of the league he was much better: 69% completion, 8.6 yards per attempt, 13 TDs and 2 INTs, and the Ravens were 8-1. Remember back to the playoffs the year before, where he was miserable (39.4 rating, 3 INTs, 0 TDs). This team is built to win this Super Bowl, and most pundits believe adding Boldin and some fresh TE talent in the draft gives the offense all the pieces needed to make that happen. But if Joe Flacco cannot improve against quality opponents in his third season, it?s all for naught.
3. Brian Urlacher--It?s hard to demand so much from an aging star coming off a season lost to injury, but that?s precisely what the Bears are doing. By adding Julius Peppers and Chris Harris, Chicago strengthened the weak points of their defense. But Lovie Smith?s base Tampa-2 defense only works with a dynamic presence in the middle. Urlacher most certainly was that guy throughout much of the 00?s, but a combination of age, injury, and offensive adjustments have blunted his impact in recent years.
The Bears are hoping for a repeat of Urlacher?s resurgent 2007 season, where he bagged 5 sacks and 5 INTs while racking up tackles all over the place. With Chicago veering more frequently from playing the vanilla Tampa-2, it?s imperative that Urlacher is up to the challenge of making big plays, particularly in coverage. The pass rush should be better, the back-end coverage should be better, and Lance Briggs provides #54 a Pro Bowl accomplice on the side. If Urlacher can come close to replicating his 2007 season, the Bears should have a playoff-caliber defense (which shifts the pressure squarely on Jay Cutler). But if the man in the middle struggles, the Bears are forced to use more gimmickry and lose the swagger and playmaking acumen that they need to hold down the potent offenses within the NFC North. Ranking in the 20s in most defensive metrics simply won't get it done in Chicago, and Brian Urlacher is the difference between ranking 23rd and 13th. That?s the difference between a 6-10 finish with an offseason house torching and a 10-6 Wild Card berth that keeps the gang together. He has asked for that kind of pressure in the past; Bears fans better hope he?s up for it.
4. Ronnie Brown--It?s real simple for the Dolphins: when Ronnie Brown plays the full game, this team is very good; when he isn?t on the field, they lose nearly 85% of the time over the last 4 seasons. Durability is a major concern, as Brown has started more than 12 games just once in 5 years. With Ricky Williams back for one more go around to share the load and an improved wide receiver corps, Brown should be able to avoid the injury bug more easily. Aside from his role as the Wildcat, his ability in the passing game is a dimension that the Dolphins simply cannot do without. Miami plays in a tough division where every win is critical, and they simply do not win without Ronnie Brown on the field.
5. Alex Smith--In the last two drafts the 49ers have given their QB a top-flight wide receiver in Michael Crabtree and two major OL upgrades in Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. Vernon Davis finally shed the el busto label and emerged as a legit playmaker at tight end. Frank Gore continues to impress at running back. In short, the only thing holding the Niners back would be the quarterback. And by standing pat on Alex Smith, plus dealing Shaun Hill, the fate of the 49ers lies squarely on his shoulders.
Smith is a career 56% passer with a negative TD/INT ratio that led two of the four most inept offenses in NFL history. But he showed improvement in 2009, and the Niners are banking on him continuing that upward trend. It?s a major gamble by Mike Singletary, particularly with Smith?s major advocate in the front office, Scot McCloughan, leaving the team. They did hedge their bet a bit by bringing in David Carr, but make no mistake--if this Niners team misses the playoffs, it?s because their trust in Alex Smith was misguided.
Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior NFL writer and can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
