Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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It?s time once again for the annual ?Booms and Busts? predictions column. It?s time to declare which draft prospects need bras to support their impending giant busts, and which will explode like dynamite from beyond the first round and greatly outplay their draft slot.
Past editions have proved fairly prescient. Prior ?bras? include JaMarcus Russell, Jimmy Williams, Matt Jones, Dwayne Jarrett, Lawrence Jackson, Justin Harrell and Darren McFadden, and two of last year?s picks sure appear on their way: Aaron Maybin and Darius Heyward-Bey.
I?ve also had my swings and misses with guys like Jeff Otah, Devin Hester and both 2009 Rookies of the Year, Brian Cushing and Percy Harvin, though to be fair I based both on injury concerns more than talent. I would caution that another guy I had on this list, Kam Wimbley, had an outstanding rookie season before quickly falling out of favor in Cleveland. It took several years before another, Vernon Davis, escaped from belonging here.
The dynamite picks have been, well, largely dynamite. The entire 2007 list--Sidney Rice, Clifton Ryan, David Harris, Usama Young, and Brent Celek--are all successful starters, and others who have made the list include Eddie Royal, Jason Jones, Darryl Tapp, Bryant McFadden, Eric Winston, and a keeper from last year in Mike Thomas. I?ve had some whiffs here too: DaJuan Morgan, Andy Alleman, Alvin Pearman, Will Franklin, but the success rate has proven pretty high.
2010 Dynamite
Tyson Alualu, DL, California--Initially I wasn?t a huge fan of his, but the more I watched Cal the more I liked his potential. A very active, high-motor bulldog with very quick feet for his weight, Alualu should quickly become a very good 5-technique end for a 3-4 front. He?s not a great pass rusher but is more of a backfield disruptor that is a real nightmare to block, and he has the agility and balance to line up as a 5-technique and attack either gap without losing run containment. I?m not as bullish on him as a 3-technique, but he could still make an effective starter there as well.
John Jerry, OL, Ole Miss--Two years ago he graded out higher than Michael Oher in nine of the Rebels? 12 games, and he had one of the more underrated Combine performances. Normally, I?m not one to be wooed by workouts in shorts, but Jerry has transformed his body into a more muscular, quicker model without sacrificing any of his fantastic strength. Jerry was far and away the best lineman on the South team in Senior Bowl workouts, where his strong punch and good base level shined. He?s a great prospect at RT, maybe even better at guard, but it would not surprise me if he developed into a very good left tackle either.
Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota--This is predicated upon his ankle fully healing, but the talented wideout strikes me as one of those ?better pro than collegian? types. Decker has very good size and strength, but what really stands out is his ability to make tough catches well away from his body. He lacks great top-end speed but consistently got good separation against several Big Ten CBs that have been or will be drafted. He reminds me a great deal of Joe Jurevicius, a horribly underappreciated #2 wideout and serious red zone threat before injuries ended his career. Decker is the type of player you can pencil in for 60-70 catches for 850-1000 yards and 6-8 TDs annually, a great return on a likely 3rd or even 4th round investment...if the ankle is right.
Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa--The only thing that can hold him back is his health, which has been a significant problem during his Hawkeye career. When he?s been on the field, he?s consistently the best all-around tight end in this draft class. You read that right--Moeaki is the most complete package of in-line blocking, downfield blocking, hands, route running, yards after catch, and field awareness of any TE in this class. Because he missed several games and he?s not a speedster, he?s woefully undervalued by most evaluators. I?ve watched every game he?s played at Iowa, and I see a talent superior to John Carlson and equal to Owen Daniels when they came out.
2010 Bras
Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame--This is more of a gut hunch than anything I?ve seen on the field, where he made a lot of great catches and exuded toughness in a pro-style offense at Notre Dame. I worry about his ability to get separation, but more to the point: I don?t know exactly where he fits. He?s quick but not cat-quick, and he likes contact too much to have a long career in the slot. Yet he?s not big enough and lacks the long speed to be a significant threat outside. I was surprised at how many throws got into his body, too. He could certainly develop into a competent #2 wideout opposite a dynamic #1, but I have a real strong inkling he?ll be burdened with lofty expectations.
Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State--His physicality is a major asset, and he?s as good as any corner in this draft within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. But beyond that range, trouble ensues. He exhibits bad footwork coming out of breaks, often crossing his hips and getting his feet too close together. He largely got away with it in college because teams feared his reputation and the Seminoles had issues on the other side, but he will be tested in the NFL. The Senior Bowl week provided a glimpse; Robinson consistently struggled to stay with any receiver that avoided his initial jam, and he showed poor balance and even falling down a few times when breaking inside. Game film reveals that Robinson tends to drift and get upright in space as well. He should be okay as a press corner and has the potential to clean up his issues, but for where he is going to be drafted (the 20-40 overall range), he?s likely to disappoint.
Taylor Mays, S, USC--My thoughts on the athletic freak are well-documented, so much so that I really hate beating a dead horse because it?s nothing personal at all. In fact, I?m subtly rooting for him to prove me and the other doubters wrong. To do that, Mays needs to process what he is seeing and translate it into quicker reactions and action. You can almost see him thinking about what he is seeing before he takes action. His incredible straight-line speed and size helped him get away with it often enough in college, but indecisiveness and the inability to quickly change course on the fly are death sentences for NFL safeties. The league is moving more and more towards spread out offenses and away from what he does best, which is fill the box against the run and blow up plays in front of him. Prove me wrong, please!
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma--I?ve been banging this drum for a long time too. Somebody needs to tell me how a tight end that runs in the high 4.8s, is a subpar blocker with poor technique and weak base strength, and missed the last season with a nasty knee injury, can be considered an elite prospect. He?s got very good hands and I was impressed at his body control for a big man, but much of his college productivity was a bit misleading. Defenses were spread out and he often slipped largely uncovered or matched up against woefully overmatched foes. We?ve seen this movie from too many other Oklahoma receivers (Travis Wilson, Malcolm Kelly, Mark Clayton), guys that were open because of the system in college but largely couldn?t shake marginal cover men in the NFL. Gresham is a receiving tight end in a blocking TE body, except he doesn?t block well and doesn?t have the speed to stretch the seam or make defenses adjust to him.
