Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Spring arrived over the weekend, and that means different things to different people. For some it means baseball is about to begin, though that sport lost me with the Steroid Era and interminable contests between the Red Sox and Yankees, both of which I hope go bankrupt and lose 100+ games. For others, it means flowers and warmer weather. I?m not a fan of that camp either; here in Michigan we got four inches of snow over the weekend, breaking up the monotony of 45 degree, sunless, rainy days.
But for millions of college students, it means Spring Break. Ah yes, 10 drunken people sharing a cheap hotel room, trying to hook up with anyone and generally acting like complete idiots. Overmuscled frat boys stiffly dancing with scantily clad co-eds, bad tattoos and backwards baseball caps in abundance, and pale skin burning red--God I miss college!
Anyways, the NFL business season is in full force while the teammates and classmates of all the upcoming draftees get their Spring Break on. The owners meetings take place this week, Pro Days continue at various schools, and more free agent signing and trades are going down pretty much every day.
$.01--One of the topics du jour this week at the owner?s meetings will be a proposal to change the overtime format. Long a sore point with many fans, the sudden death format is now under attack by an idea that would tweak the concept. In an effort to try and de-emphasize the importance of the coin toss and diminish the impact of teams playing for long field goals, a proposal is on the table to allow the team that loses the coin toss to get a chance to get the ball if the winning team has only scored by field goal and not a touchdown.
I?ll admit the current sudden death format has its inherent flaw with an overemphasis on winning the coin toss, but I do not like the new idea one bit. If your special teams can?t keep the other team from getting good field position, that?s not the fault of the coin. If your defense isn?t good enough to get a stop, you don?t deserve to win the game. For every first-possession overtime victory, I can go back and find several points in the game where an opportunity to win was lost, leading to the overtime outcome. Losing in sudden death without ever getting the ball is unfortunate and it stinks, but if the team had played a better game in regulation, they wouldn?t have been in that situation. The new concept doesn?t address that at all. I would argue it encourages teams to play for the tie instead of going for the win in regulation.
As Herm Edwards famously opined, ?You play to win the game?, and allowing more latitude in overtime takes away from playing to win the game.
$.02--Another main function of the owner?s meetings is deal-making. Although there will be less time to wheel and deal with the weight of the CBA negotiations heavily hanging over Orlando, you can bet that the groundwork for many deals will be laid in the restaurants and hotel lobbies.
You?re going to read a whole lot of ?breaking news? and ?exclusively reported? tidbits, rumors, and innuendos from all sorts of places over the next few days. Some of it will be legit, some of it will be an informed guess by someone trying to make two and three equal four, some of it will be a reporter who should know better being either hoodwinked or shamelessly used to float ideas for public and team reactions.
I?ve already heard various incarnations of several rumors making the rounds: Philly is trying to deal any or all of their QBs, Matt Hasselbeck could be done in Seattle now that they have Charlie Whitehurst, Cleveland is trying to move up in the draft to take Sam Bradford (or backwards to take Tim Tebow, or not taking a QB at all, depending on who you read), Detroit is about to sign Pacman Jones, Nate Vasher is close to signing with about eight different teams, Denver will overpay for anyone that used to wear Patriots uniforms, etc...it goes on and on.
As someone who gets to report these nuggets and spread these rumors from time to time, I would strongly encourage you to not believe anything until you read it in the transactions column of your local newspaper the next day. Even though some of the information is good and legit at the time, funny things happen on the way from the outlines on hotel bar napkins to signed contracts and consummated deals. There is more pressure than ever to scoop everyone on every possible minutia of any potential deal, and the prominent players in that game are often ruthless, unscrupulous, and arrogantly drunk on their own awesomeness and importance. Try not to drink too much of what they?re serving.
$.03--Keeping with that theme, some of the ?news? at this time of year borders on the asinine. Derek Anderson expects to start in Arizona. Rex Grossman says he believes he has a legit chance to win the starting QB job in Washington. Jake Delhomme was shocked that Carolina released him. Pittsburgh declares they aren?t going to draft a quarterback in the first few rounds. Minnesota doesn?t know yet if Brett Favre is coming back. The sun comes up in the east...
Players that change teams often get asked about their newfound opportunity with their new team. It should not be news that the players believe they have a genuine chance to win a starting job, especially quarterbacks. Think about it--would you really want to sign a quarterback that didn?t really believe he was good enough to start for the team? Quarterbacks have to believe in themselves and that confidence must exude to the team as well. Show me a quarterback that doesn?t believe he can do the job, and I?ll show you a player that isn?t long for the NFL. It would be newsworthy if Quarterback X declared at his press conference, ?I?m here because my old team knew I wasn?t good enough, but this new team is terrible and even though I basically suck these days I?m the best option they?ve got.? Now that would be news!
$.04--The curious case of Scott McCloughan spins on. The GM of the 49ers is now officially on a paid extended leave of absence from the team. This follows reports that he was stepping down, or being asked to step down, or that McCloughan was upset that Coach Mike Singletary declared he was in charge of all draft and personnel decisions, which would essentially render McCloughan?s position pointless. Both sides have come out and stated the leave is a mutual decision, but the timing here leaves plenty of room for rampant speculation.
Here?s mine: Jed York wants to play with his toy. York is the son of the owner and has served as team president since late 2008, plus he recently was anointed CEO. He saw that McCloughan was vulnerable--he?s going through a tough divorce--and seized upon the opportunity to further sink his teeth into more power.
McCloughan won?t be back; his comments in an interview with Sirius NFL Radio and a text message to a reporter both indicate a strong sense of conclusion to his Niners career. York is sizing up the loyalty of those who remain by playing this card at this particular time. The draft is a month away and free agency is in full boil, and that creates a sense of immediacy and stressful urgency. The young York (he?s under 30) is finding out who he can trust and who will bow before him as he moves forward with a stronger hold on the final say of everything that happens in the front office.
Of course that?s just my dart throw at the root of the story. I base it upon my dealings with scions of successful people in all sorts of businesses. These guys get their feet wet and play it cool for a couple of years, then they feel the need to a.) prove to Daddy that they are worthy and, b.) show everyone around them they are now The Man by grabbing every bit of power they can. These seldom produce the desired outcomes for the businesses or the second generation power players. Judging by the severity of the timing, I suspect this one won?t end well for Niners fans either.
$.05--I receive loads of feedback on the mock draft updates, much of it essentially boiling down to one question: ?Why this pick for this team?? The tone changes depending on the pick and the commenter, but that?s basically what everyone wants to know. Here?s how I go about formulating the mock drafts:
1. I talk to contacts I have with various teams about who they are looking at, what positions are of great importance, how they feel as a team about a particular player or two.
2. I glean similar information from beat reporters and team insiders--both personally and by reading papers and broadcast transcripts.
3. I talk to a few agents, though I find them overly optimistic about their own clients and overly negative towards more prominent players at the same positions as their clients. I got an email from an agent this morning telling me a certain team is ?100% going to pick? one of his clients if he?s still on the board when they pick in the 2nd round. Considering that player is not projected by anyone to go above about the top of the 4th, and the team I work with has him rated 14th at his position, I?m a little skeptical.
4. I pay a little mind towards who attends what Pro Day, who has which players in for personal visits, who is digging deep into backgrounds, etc. I?ve found that this is the easiest way for teams to set up smokescreens, so I don?t really place a great deal of value in them, though some teams are cleverer than others.
5. I frequently examine the best available talent at the more premium positions and try to ascertain if this is the right range for where the player should go. One of the things I do for the team that contracts me this time of year is that I help to establish draft ceilings and floors for players (i.e. the highest and lowest they will be drafted). Even if the slotted team seems an unlikely fit, if the player is nearing or at the expected draft floor, I slot them in. This often leads to some eyebrow-raising reactions and some nasty emails.
6. I give my best guess, often trusting a hunch or running wild with a scenario in my head that is almost certainly complete bunk. Strangely these often wind up being accurate, particularly in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, thanks to trades and unexpected picks above. Or I?m wildly off base and look like an idiot come draft weekend.
One thing I don?t typically do is look at other mock drafts while I?m cooking my own. There are some individuals that I absolutely respect and I know they base their mocks on more than just painting by numbers, but I don?t like to be influenced by others. I do check them out once I?m done, but very rarely does that influence any picks in the next edition unless I know that person knows something.
