Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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After making the 250-mile drive down US 31, it's actually colder here in Indianapolis than back home in Michigan, go figure.
For some freakish reason, no matter what direction you are walking, the wind is blowing hard right into your face. The players still haven't worked out, but that doesn't mean there isn't lots of grist for the mill.
Some Early Observations:
--Tom Dimitroff continues his amazing luck. The Falcons general manager won the coin toss with Houston for the 19th pick. This is not insignificant as both teams appear to be looking at the same players and positions. Dude seriously knows how to dress too.
--The Jaguars won their coin toss with Chicago for the 10th pick, which means I have to re-do my mock draft template.
--I'm genuinely surprised at how optimistic most people are concerning the CBA negotiations, given how all the reports on the talks have been so negatively toned. There is an exception: Agents are mortified at what might happen with either a lockout or a CBA that greatly limits free agency and top-end draft pick contracts.
--The medical examinations these prospects are run through are incredibly thorough, and this year there is more of an emphasis on prior concussions and head/neck injuries. That is real bad news for Jahvid Best, the oft-concussed running back from Cal. Funny moment: I was talking to an offensive coordinator about Best when a very prominent television draft analyst walked by and mouthed, "Not worth the risk."
--The quarterbacks don't work out until Monday, but already I can tell you the biggest loser of the Combine is likely to be Dan Lefevour of Central Michigan. Whomever convinced him to not throw here has almost certainly cost him at least one full round of draft status, if not more. Everyone I've talked to about him -- and it's beyond my fingers and toes in number -- thinks Lefevour has made a terrible mistake and is showing he lacks confidence in himself and also lacks the competitive instincts teams want in their quarterback.
--You can go elsewhere for all the measurements, but I'll give you three guys who really stood out in the first two days of weights and measures: Bruce Campbell, tackle , Maryland with his 36.25 inch arm length; Rob Gronkowski, tight end, Arizona as a legit 6'6" and a very nicely cut 264 pounds. Note that Gronkowski has elected to not work out despite his assurances that he's 100% recovered from the injury that caused him to miss last season; Sam Bradford, much bigger in person than he looks on TV and a very legit 6'4", 236 pounds of athletic wonder.
Guys Helping Themselves So Far:
Rodger Saffold, T, Indiana -- Just as impressive physically as just about any tackle here, and he's clearly one smart cookie.
Charles Brown, T, USC -- Weighed in at 303 without looking like he "fatted up." to quote one GM. If he drills well, he's going to draw first round interest.
Mike Iupati, G, Idaho -- His arms measured just over 34 inches, which props up the argument that he can play tackle in the NFL. He's the best guard by a country mile, but if teams believe he can handle playing tackle as well, he might go in the top-five a la Brandon Albert. It should be noted that Albert has not fared all that well at tackle.
I'd put Bruce Campbell in this group, except the vibe I'm getting surrounding him from teams is that his limited body of work washes out his impressive body. Read that as: workout wonder alarm!
I have a feeling Troy quarterback Levi Brown will raise his stock this weekend as well. He's doing the complete workout and he's got a plus arm and great confidence in it. He did a radio interview where he came across as humbly confident and well-versed on Xs and Os. When I spoke with him for a few minutes just afterwards, I have no question he will handle the transition to the NFL well. He reminds me of Trent Edwards with a better arm and a southern accent.
Arkansas guard Mitch Petrus broke the Combine record for bench press reps, with 45. Don't get too excited though; he tied Mike Kudla and Leif Larson, neither of whom survived their first training camp. Russell Okung putting up 38 reps impressed me more with his long arms.
Draft Buzz:
--Lots of people with better connections than me are pretty insistent that the Rams are going to take Sam Bradford, provided his shoulder checks out. I'm still not buying it.
--There is a common theme surrounding Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap: "Be REAL careful." That is coming from Gator people more than anywhere else. It goes far beyond his DUI last season too.
--The general vibe is that it's very unlikely any punters or kickers will be drafted before the seventh round compensatory picks. Michigan punter Zoltan Mesko has the best shot, though his Senior Bowl week performance suggests otherwise.
--Perhaps the biggest range of opinion on any player not named Tebow goes to Jason Pierre-Paul, the athletically freakish defensive end from South Florida. There is little debate about his top-end potential with his physical package, but a lot more people than I expected are very scared off by his lack of experience and his bouncy college career. JPP played just one year of big-school football after attending two different junior colleges and was surrounded by four other defenders who will be drafted this year in a conference (Big East) that probably won?t have one offensive lineman drafted before the 6th round. Consider my surprise at all the hesitation on him a pleasant one. I watched three USF games this week and found that of his 6.5 sacks, he essentially lucked into 4.5 of them, and he plays very upright far too often. At this point he could go in the top 10 or he could fall to the top of the 2nd.
Shameless Rumor Mongering:
--As I wrote earlier this week, the running back class isn't real strong and the glut of veteran talent on the market could push players down much lower than what a lot of people think. With Thomas Jones (very likely) and Darren Sproles (maybe) about to join the sexy name list, the RBs behind C.J. Spiller could be waiting an uncomfortably long time.
--The Browns will not be paying Derek Anderson his $2M bonus next month, and they are fishing for whatever they can get. It doesn?t look like they'll get even a seventh rounder for him.
--The Chargers are almost desperately shopping Antonio Cromartie, and to a lesser extent Shawne Merriman. A sage birdie tells me they might find a taker for both in Baltimore, which is (not coincidentally) shopping Willis McGahee and isn't afraid to deal picks.
--I heard two different, completely unaffiliated people link Brian Westbrook to the Bears. Neither person works remotely close to the Bears or for Westbrook, however; just passing along what I heard.
--The long-discussed (for some of us) Glenn Dorsey-to-Detroit deal is still "on the front burner," according to sources I've talked with on both teams. When paired with the above tidbit on Bradford perhaps going #1 overall, that #2 pick carries even more trade currency for the Lions. I'm not sold they're serious about trading that pick, but Martin Mayhew & Co. are certainly open to all sorts of options right now.
