Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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We?re down to the final four in the NFL. That means just three more NFL games until September, so you?d better enjoy these while you still can!
Both games are in domes, which eliminates weather as a factor. It does make crowd noise a major factor, especially in New Orleans, but because the Vikings are also a dome team it is somewhat mitigated.
AFC Championship
New York Jets at Indianapolis: The Jets are the only Wild Card team remaining, and they get to face the team that allowed them to sneak into the playoffs. When the Colts lied down and pulled their starters in Week 16, that gave the Jets the needed opening to make it to the dance, and dance they have done.
The Jets first-round win over Cincinnati didn?t surprise me at all; I predicted the Jets would roll the Bengals, who peaked early and matched up poorly with their lack of a vertical passing game. But last week?s win over San Diego was a real stunner to me. I thought the versatility of the Chargers offense would allow them to attack the Jets? attacking defense, and that their own stout defense would contain the New York rushing attack. Now the Jets draw the Colts, who can?t run the ball at all but have the greatest QB of the Super Bowl era operating with a plethora of capable receivers behind a very good offensive line. Can the Jets do it again?
I give that a resounding ?No?. What I took from last week was that the Chargers did a lot more to impact their own fate than anything the Jets did to them. That?s not to say New York didn?t play well--they did, particularly Mark Sanchez--but San Diego?s poor play made it all possible. The Bolts committed stupid penalties and made far too many errors, both physical and mental. San Diego seemed a lethal combination of overconfident and unfocused, and the Jets were more than game enough to capitalize...by 3 points, with 3 missed SD field goals and a flukish, drive-killing INT.
I trust that these Colts aren?t going to be so accommodating to the visitors. The Indy defense might be on the smaller side, but they are chock-full of strong tacklers at all three levels. They secede yards but not big runs like the one Shonn Greene ripped off last week thanks to some awful tackling and poor pursuit angles. You just don?t see the Colts defense make those sort of fundamental errors. The Colts will focus on shutting down the run and forcing the Sanchize to beat them with his arm. I do not have any faith that Braylon Edwards will catch the ball when he?s open, and the other Jets receivers don?t scare the Colts over the top. With Freeney and Mathis off the edges, they can bottle up Sanchez, keeping him inside the pocket where he?s less dangerous. I also like the proven ability of those ends to disrupt the timing and blocking on those patented power runs that make up the base of the Jets offense. The Jets are going to get yards, make no mistake, but I don?t see them being able to punch it in more than once. Their offense is similarly styled to the Ravens, and the Colts kept them out of the end zone last week.
That will not be enough against Peyton Manning. One factor I think is being largely overlooked: the Colts just played the same basic defense in Baltimore. Jets coach Rex Ryan created that defense, and the front seven in Baltimore is vastly superior to the one he?s got now in New York. The Ravens D did a fine job of slowing down Manning and forcing his hand often, but the Colts now have a recent experience against that style and also a recent game against the Jets to learn from. They know where the vulnerabilities lie, and they?ll design plays that can attack them.
Another under-the-radar factor that really favors the Colts: Indy ranked 2nd in the league in red zone efficiency. The Jets D was 5th in that factor and led the league by a wide margin in total red zone attempts, limiting opponents to just two per game on average, but the Colts starters notched two TDs and a FG in just over a half in the prior meeting.
Project that out another 25 minutes and that gives you 20, and I don?t see the Jets being able to score that much against this defense, not without a special teams or defensive TD. New York proves a worthy opponent but comes up a little short. Colts 20, Jets 16.
NFC Championship
Minnesota at New Orleans: I?ll be honest with you, fair readers, I really cannot make up my mind on this one. I can make compelling arguments for both teams to win. So in order to make a forecast with such variable factors, I decided to boil it down to the three things that most often decide NFL games:
1. Is there any offense vs. defense matchup that strongly favors one team?
2. Is there a stark contrast in the turnover margins?
3. Does one team have a decided advantage in special teams and penalties?
#2 is essentially a wash; the Saints were 3rd in the league at +11, the Vikings 8th at +6, but the Saints turned the ball over 10 more times than Minnesota. That turns the focus to the other two.
#1 wound up surprising me a little bit. I thought the one advantage I would find would be the Vikings rushing offense against the Saints rushing defense, but that is not the case. The Saints run defense ranked 30th in efficiency, but Minnesota finished in the middle of the pack (17th) in rushing efficiency--not exactly what you?d expect for a team with Adrian Peterson. Additionally, the Saints run defense was significantly better at home (they ranked 18th) and the Vikings run offense has tumbled lately.
Instead, the advantages went to the passing offenses against the pass defenses. No surprise there with Drew Brees, Brett Favre and two very talented and deep receiving corps. The big difference is the impact of the pass rush. New Orleans has some talent, but they ranked 21st in sack percentage. The Vikings finished 2nd in that key stat, plus 1st overall in QB sack percentage (offense and defense combined). New Orleans does a good job of protecting Brees (4th in sack percentage), but I like the matchup of Jared Allen against Jermon Bushrod and Kevin Williams attacking up the gut. New Orleans has an opportunistic secondary, but they rely too heavily on forcing turnovers to shut down the opponent. Favre is not making those sorts of bad decisions, and he likely won?t be under heavy pressure that forces those types of mistakes. Give an edge to Minnesota.
Factor #3 also tilts towards the Vikings. The Saints ranked dead last in punt yardage differential, and the Vikings field consistently solid special teams units across the board. Yes, Reggie Bush broke the big one last week, but Vikings punter Chris Kluwe had an amazing week in his own right. Minnesota does a very good job of limiting penalties, while the Saints finished in the bottom half of the league in penalty differential. It?s not a huge advantage--and the raucous home crowd might even that out for the Saints--but the edge goes to Minnesota.
Normally I would temper those advantages by giving a big edge to New Orleans playing at home. They are great in the Superdome, and their fairly recent playoff experience (they made the NFC title game three years ago with the same basic team) has taught them how to prepare for a game of this magnitude. But this is where all that Brett Favre drama last summer pays off for the Vikings. He has been here before and he knows how to win the big games. His experience, calmness and confidence all rub off on his team, and they will be well-prepared to handle the pressures of playing in such a big game on the road. It?s indoors, so the ?Favre can?t play in the cold anymore? factor goes out the window. I also give a minor advantage to the Vikings in the field goal department, as I trust Ryan Longwell to nail the 49 yarder a lot more than I do Garrett Hartley.
So the pick is the Vikings, 37-31. Am I confident in that? Absolutely not, but I?m probably a little more confident in it every passing day.
