Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01--So much for the theory that resting the starters would rust them in Indianapolis. Peyton Manning came out sharp, taking what a very game Ravens defense gave him as the home team cruised to the AFC championship game. Despite not having played more than a half of continuous football in over a month, Manning & Co. kept nibbling away the skin before taking a couple of big bites just before halftime.
But the story from that game is the Indianapolis defense, which absolutely dominated an overmatched, one-dimensional Baltimore offense. Dwight Freeney turned in a superlative performance, but the play that really stands out as emblematic of the Colts stingy D came early in the game. On Baltimore?s first play from scrimmage Ray Rice took a handoff and swept to the right. Colts LB Gary Brackett fought off a solid block and stuck Rice for no gain on a textbook open-field tackle. All week the Colts defense had quietly deferred to both their own offense and the Ravens vaunted D, but they are a fiercely proud and confident group. That sort of statement play right away proved the confidence was not false bravado, and it set the tone for the rest of the game. Baltimore never did figure out how to solve it, and their screaming need for an impact wideout was never more evident.
The Ravens have to consider the season a success, though with Ed Reed contemplating retirement and Ray Lewis close to the end the window might be closed for this defense to carry any Super Bowl aspirations. The Colts defense, meanwhile, proved they are more than good enough to keep that window open for Peyton Manning. They just might be good enough to force it open if Manning somehow has a bad day.
$.02--Sunday morning brought some sad news to the NFL, as Bears DE Gaines Adams passed away at age 26. Twenty-six years old, a professional athlete, and he dropped dead from a heart attack. That is stunning, awful, and scary all rolled into one depressing news bulletin. What made it really hit home for me is that Adams is from just outside Greenville, SC, where my brother lives and was celebrating his 24th birthday on Sunday. I can?t fathom losing someone at that age, certainly not someone so physically blessed enough to be the 4th overall pick in the NFL draft just three short years ago. His family must be rocked beyond emotion at this point, and my heartfelt condolences go out to both them and the Bears family as well.
$.03--The Saints quickly reestablished themselves as Super Bowl contenders, waxing the defenseless Cardinals with precision and surprising alacrity. The offensive line shut down a Cards defensive front that makes a lot of plays in between giving up big ones, giving Drew Brees ample time and clean passing lanes all night long. Unlike last week, the Cardinals offense found some stiff resistance in New Orleans.
That Saints defense is what makes them so unpredictable. During their hot start, the pass rush was good and the secondary was making plays and providing decent coverage. Around Thanksgiving, both of those went away, and so did most respect for the legitimacy of their Super Bowl chances. Will Smith in particular looked fresh and hungry, and he is the sort of difference-maker that can make a good QB have a bad day. With Darren Sharper lurking deep and the linebackers tracking the run well, the Saints once again look like a championship-caliber defense. They won?t face a better offense than the one they just held to 14 points, and as long as they avoid the coverage miscommunications and stupid penalties--neither is a given--they will be very difficult to beat. Having Reggie Bush run with the blend of power and shiftiness he showed Saturday makes them the clear NFC favorite, but I still don?t trust enough in a repeat performance from either the New Orleans defense or Reggie Bush.
$.04--I?m not one to gloat. Okay, that is patently untrue, but how could so many supposed ?experts? completely ignore how poorly Dallas? offense matched up against Minnesota?s defense? The first two things I thought of when looking at that game were Jared Allen against Flozell Adams, and Vikings LBs Chad Greenway and Ben Leber in coverage against Jason Witten. Minnesota proved they had a decided advantage in both matchups, which should have surprised no one in the case of Mullet vs. Mountain. The complementary defenders of the Vikings are vastly superior to their Cowboys counterparts, and that clearly showed on Sunday. Because the Vikings have the ability to stop the run without bringing DBs into the box, their safeties and LBs can help more in coverage, or blitz without recourse easier. The plodding Cowboys line was no match for the speed or rush variations that Vikings DC Leslie Frazier threw at them. With Antoine Winfield looking fully recovered, the pass coverage bottled up Miles Austin, and nobody else on Dallas could fill the void. Make no mistake, the better overall team won that game.
$.05--The one game that surprised me was the Jets upsetting San Diego. The Jets actually performed approximately how I expected thought they would; it was how poorly the Chargers executed that really caught me off guard. Much of the blame will fall on Nate Kaeding and his atrocious kicking, but he was far from the only culprit. From the stupid penalties (who kicks a challenge flag?) to dropped passes to missed blocks to poor throws to LaDanian Tomlinson looking very much done, San Diego did a great job letting the Jets beat them.
That?s not to disparage the Jets too much, because they brought the pain on both sides of the ball for 60 minutes. They maximize their limited talent better than anyone--remember they are in the playoffs only because the Colts and Bengals didn?t have to play (and didn?t) in the final two weeks of the regular season. Coach Ryan is playing that chip quite well, and his players have bought into everything he?s selling. That makes them a dangerous wild card because they have already tasted success with the ?nobody thinks we can do it? philosophy similar to what Arizona did last year.
$.06--There are still two unresolved coaching situations, though that could change quickly. Buffalo is still searching for anyone that wants that job, which has been bypassed or turned down by a plethora of candidates both prominent and under the radar. I was surprised Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer turned down the opportunity, and apparently Cardinals DC Russ Grimm is passing as well. Most people expect the Bills to continue pursuing up-and-coming assistants (read: Leslie Frazier) and not the big-name veteran coaches, though a little birdie tells me both Jim Fassel and Marty Morninwheg are being considered.
The other spot is Oakland, where owner Al Davis has yet to decide on keeping Tom Cable. Everything I?ve heard from every source out there indicates Cable is finished, but with the Raiders you just never know. As Davis is loathe to pay big $$ for a coach, expect someone with little experience and a lot of chutzpah to wind up donning the silver and black. I could see Al dipping into the college ranks too. Cable wasn?t great, but considering he was handcuffed to the worst #1 overall draft pick in any sport in the last 10 years at QB it?s hard to be harsh in evaluating him.
$.07--5 random quickies:
1. So Kansas City hired a failed college coach to take over the offense, a failed NFL head coach to take over the defense, and they?re committed to a below-average QB for years? Good luck with that, Scott Pioli. There?s a lesson here: what Belichick has accomplished in New England is non-transferable.
2. The Bears made a nice move in bringing in Mike Tice to coach the offensive line. He?s respected by current players and will hold this group accountable, something that has not been the case for any positional group under Lovie Smith. Now they just need coordinators who aren?t afraid of strapping themselves to a lame-duck staff with a fading team.
3. You know it?s getting real bad on the airwaves when Joe Buck is hands-down the best play-by-play man of the weekend. And is it in Troy Aikman?s contract that he only ever does Cowboys games?!? Just as I get fed up with former Buckeye QB Kirk Herbstreit doing Ohio State games, Aikman is a very good professional but still should be kept away from a team so close to his heart.
4. Feedback from my weekly Scoop piece included a terse email from an agent regarding my allegation that all player movement discussion at this time of the year is fabricated, often by agents seeking greener pastures for their clients. His assertion: he would never create that sort of rumor-mongering and doesn?t believe teams would tolerate that sort of nonsense. This from an agent notorious for holding out draftees trying to break the salary slotting system, often doing so with the veiled threat of demanding a trade. *Shakes head disgustedly*
5. Two of the four remaining quarterbacks were first round picks, with Drew Brees and Brett Favre being picks #32 and 33, respectively. Last year?s final four featured three first rounders (Roethlisberger, Flacco, and McNabb) plus Kurt Warner, a Hall of Famer. The prior year had Favre plus first-rounders Philip Rivers and Eli Manning, and some guy named Tom Brady. You simply do not win in the playoffs without having a huge investment at QB.
$.08--Non-Football thought of the week: I had the occasion to fly last week, something I loathe in general. But this trip was an excellent reminder of why. I?m 6?5?, which means I have trouble fitting in seats and I always request the exit row to get a little more room to unfold. Unfortunately I got placed in the row behind the exit row, which is usually the next-best place for someone of my stature because most folks who wind up in the exit row don?t need to recline the seat beyond a minor tilt. Not so for United 363 last Tuesday.
An incredibly self-important man no taller than 5?5? stormed in, the last person to get on the plane. He proceeded to get into the exit row seat directly in front of me. Here I am trying real hard to keep my knees and elbows from whacking the nice lady next to me, and this vapid putz decides to try and fully recline his exit row seat the second we?re allowed to do so. I?m not kidding when I say my dinner platform was pressed into my knees. Keep in mind I?m at least a foot taller than this well-coiffed, over-perfumed loser. I decided to go into attack mode, drumming ?Run to the Hills? by Iron Maiden with my knees directly into his back. I forced some coughs without covering my mouth, and I know he could taste my breath. I managed to extricate my right foot and forced it up on his armrest, but it mattered not. The woman next to me advised me in a friendly, wicked voice to ?spit in his sticky hair?. Sadly I?m not that big of a jerk, but I will cop to fantasizing about strangling him with my contraband Twizzlers.
So for all you vertically challenged people, please be considerate on the airplane for those of us who have to duck while we?re seated. You never know, we just might snap...
$.09--5 random draft thoughts:
1. I?m finding a serious disconnect between what scouts and pro personnel people think of Sam Bradford and what the draftniks wonks (McShay, the guys at CBSsports, etc.) believe. I?ve talked to more than a few men who have actual input into their teams? draft, and most have major reservations about Bradford?s shoulder and his ability to handle pressure. Don?t be surprised if you start to see him slide on the prominent pundit rankings soon.
2. Beware the players projected to convert from undersized college DE to NFL OLB, especially guys that are noted strictly for speed around the edge. I?m looking at you, Ricky Sapp and Jerry Hughes!
3. It?s still early in the process, but I?m not sure I?ve seen a running back besides CJ Spiller that belongs in the first two rounds--not with the glut of young talent already floating around the league.
4. Two players that did a lot in bowl games to help themselves: Florida TE Aaron Hernandez and Wisconsin LB O?Brien Schofield.
5. Two that did not: Arizona CB Devin Ross and Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard. Gilyard will have a hard time recovering not just from being physically dominated, but also how he conducted himself while being shut down.
Positives: Looks the part with great size and musculature. Very strong base strength. Long-armed and packs a powerful hand punch. Gets arms extended and locks with strength and balance. Good mirror skills. Decent kick step, slides quickly. Good natural knee bender, stays over his feet in balance well. Has flashed the ability to get out in front and find targets at the second level. Can combo block if asked to.
Negatives: Very small body of work thanks to numerous injuries. Durability is a major flag as he has not shown he is willing or able to play hurt and appears somewhat fragile for such a physical specimen. Can be slow to identify the blitz. Not real aggressive in run blocking, often lets the defender dictate the action. Might be a little too weight-room strong. Inexperience is a real mitigating factor, needs lots of work on rudimentary fundamentals. Dedication and love of football has been questioned.
NFL Comparison: Could be the next Ryan Clady...or Chris McIntosh
Forecast: No way a player of his physical gifts falls out of the top 20 picks, and Campbell could be the first linemen chosen. Much like former Terp Vernon Davis, it might take a few painful years before living up to that billing.
