Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01 -- That sickening thud you heard around 1:45 PM on Sunday was the sound of jaws dropping all over Patriot nation. Baltimore jumped all over New England, embarrassing the host Patriots with a steady barrage of big runs and airtight defense. It often appeared as if the Ravens knew exactly what play was called, consistently beating the Pats to the point of attack and making Tom Brady look a whole lot like Drew Stanton. The Ravens absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense, imposing their will on New England and never relenting.
As the clock advanced, the Patriots fared little better. It took a bad call and an inexplicable non-challenge by Ravens coach John Harbaugh for New England to score before halftime. Baltimore out-muscled and out-hustled the Patriots all over the field for 60 minutes, an inexcusable sin to Bill Belichick. Losing to a completely one-dimensional team -- the Ravens netted just 34 passing yards -- has to make The Hoodie absolutely sick, yet it was clear the Ravens were both better prepared and more motivated to win. It's not often that Belichick gets embarrassed, and expect this spanking to create an atmosphere of increased focus and intensity, and perhaps a little house-cleaning too.
$.02 -- When a blowout turns into a shootout it often becomes an instant classic, and that certainly was the case in the Arizona/Green Bay affair. Offensive records flew out the retractable roof, with Green Bay mounting a furious comeback to send the game to overtime. So it was perfectly fitting that the game was won on a great defensive play, a sack/fumble by whipping boy Michael Adams that Karlos Dansby took to the ecstatic, exhausted house.
This is precisely what every other team in the NFC feared: the Cardinals do indeed have the ability to flip the proverbial switch. The defending conference champs even added a new toy in Beanie Wells, who looks fresh and hungry. Green Bay's defense has been rocking opponents since Halloween, but the Cardinals did anything and everything they wanted. Kurt Warner cemented his Hall of Fame status with a near-perfect performance that leaves little doubt who the most dangerous quarterback is left in the NFC. He out-dueled the game Aaron Rodgers, throwing dart after rocketed bulls-eye, often putting the ball in the only place it could possibly be caught. The Saints can rack up points, but like I said in the game forecast, don't ever bet against Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald in a shootout. Almost no one will give these Cardinals much of a chance once again, but in my humble opinion they just ousted the one team that was best-suited to stop them. Overlook them at your peril.
$.03 -- The Bengals stumble out of the playoffs with a lot of serious and unexpected questions. Foremost among those is Carson Palmer and the passing offense, which was largely moribund over the last two months. I have to temper the criticism of Palmer with the fact that he lost his best receiver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, to free agency and his top downfield threat, Chris Henry, to injury and also a sudden tragic death. But the Bengals have to wonder if Palmer is ever going to be the franchise quarterback that can lead them to a playoff victory.
Neither the stats nor the game films lead me to believe he can do it. The early Carson Palmer, the one that was a consensus #1 overall draft pick and led the lowly Bengals to the playoffs in his second season as a starter, is no more. Over the last three seasons, Palmer has quietly but obviously regressed. His pinpoint accuracy is long gone, and the old fastball doesn?t have the same bite anymore. Palmer's yards per attempt and yardage per game are both well below the league averages over that time period, and his INT/TD ratio is 50/37, not exactly impressive. He didn't top the 250-yard mark in any game since Oct. 18th and finished next to last in passing yardage in the last eight weeks of any quarterback that started every game. Palmer is now 30, a time when he should be really hitting his stride. Instead he's falling back to the pack of ordinary, average quarterbacks; his most comparable statistical peers over the last three years are Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell, and he's looking up at the likes of David Garrard and Sage Rosenfels. That's not getting enough from a #1 overall pick, and with their strong running game and solid offensive line, it's time to start questioning if they need to start looking for an eventual upgrade in Cincinnati.
$.04 -- Another quarterback not meeting expectations is Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia, and it's a lot more likely that the Eagles do something about it than their counterparts in Cincinnati. McNabb played about as poorly as one can in the consecutive losses to Dallas, often appearing shell-shocked and incapable of making decisions quickly enough. As the television replays often verified, McNabb wasn't seeing the field well, often forcing throws to covered receivers when better options were available. His play lacked urgency when the Eagles fell behind early, another issue that is not new for McNabb.
A lot of what ailed the Eagles offense on Saturday was the Dallas defense and nothing internal, something that the Philly faithful would be wise to keep in mind before calling for McNabb's head (again). Andy Reid's offense, which throws to set up the throw and only runs during obvious throwing situations, doesn't help when facing a defense that can overwhelm the offensive-line. So be careful what you ask for, Eagles fans. Even though McNabb is 33 with loads of excess miles and has at times bristled and hinted at wanting to leave, he's still a great leader and capable of winning playoff games -- just not against teams that are better than his own, which Dallas clearly was this time. Trust me, Kevin Kolb would have done no better, and Michael Vick isn't the answer either. McNabb deserves one more shot.
$.05 -- Every year there is a surprise coaching move, and this year's came down in Seattle, where Jim Mora Jr. was sent packing after just one lousy season. I had heard whispers, and anytime a GM moves on there is always inherent risk of rash changes, but the firing and subsequent instant courtship of USC coach Pete Carroll seems almost surreal.
I don't necessarily blame the Seahawks for axing Mora, who did little to distinguish himself and, according to one team insider, "whiffed at every pitch" in making adjustments. If it's clear the coach isn't part of the solution, no sense in prolonging the agony (see: Matt Millen's Detroit tenure). I have yet to make up my mind on Carroll, who had some success in tough spots in the NFL but seemed perfectly suited for a long and glorious college career. Seattle is bequeathing upon Carroll the power to name his own GM (early guess: Pat Kirwan, who was his GM with the Jets) and do basically whatever he wants to turn the team around. There are serious holes all over the roster but also some great building blocks, plus two first-round picks. It may work, it may not work, but give the Seahawks credit for quickly realizing that it was never going to work with Mora.
$.06 -- 5 Random Quickies:
1. Can NBC find any worse announcers than Joe Theismann and Joe Gibbs? Good lord that was painful! At least Theismann has the trappings of a professional broadcaster and tried to help out, but Gibbs was an absolute train wreck of indecipherable quips, irrelevant stories, and stone silence.
2. I know my father's favorite football memory of the weekend was the Jets' Jay Feely handling both place kicking and punting duties. He's long advocated getting players that can do both, arguing that it really isn't any different than a pitcher than can hit in baseball. Feely punted fantastically considering his limited experience, which lends credence to my old man's argument. In an era of precious roster spots, just maybe this kick-starts a trend.
3. Sometimes you need an "outsider" perspective for things to make sense. My 4-year-old son Layne, who is just starting to comprehend the rules and goals of football, asked me the following question several times during the Patriots/Ravens game: "Daddy how come #12 (Brady) never throws the ball to where they need to get to (the 1st down line)?" Fair point, Layne, now stop bugging me to play Wii bowling so you can whip me again.
4. Is that another flag I see in the Philly/Dallas game? Ed Hochuli earned some overtime in that one, but at least he got to fire the guns a lot.
5. Want to know how unimportant having a great running game is? Three of the bottom five rushing offenses made the final eight playoff teams, and playoff losers New England and Cincinnati ranked in the bottom 10 in yards per carry.
$.07 -- Kudos to Mike Holmgren for keeping an open mind and a level head regarding Eric Mangini. I'll cop to being a frequent Mangenuis critic, but both he and the team clearly found their footing down the stretch. With the way Mangini reshaped the roster with his type of players, another drastic rebuild would have taken years. For all his faults -- and that list is not short -- Mangini has a keen eye for certain types of players, and once those players started to cohere they looked like a very good, albeit incomplete team. With a seasoned GM and a contrasting voice in his ear, I think Mangini has as good a chance to make it work in Cleveland than anyone else Holmgren could have hired.
$.08 -- Non-football Thought of the Week:
I'll keep this as short and sweet as possible: If any NFL player did anything close to what Gilbert Arenas did, that player would never have a prayer of ever setting foot within 500 yards of any NFL facility ever again. It's embarrassingly fraudulent how David Stern and the NBA handled Arenas' gun play, and it's equally ridiculous that the Wizards put up with it for as long as they did. The NBA is apparently the only workplace in America where you can pull a loaded gun on a co-worker and not face immediate and permanent termination. Go ahead and try it where you work, be it a bank or a Best Buy or a chemical plant or a fire station or an NFL team. Good luck raising bail!
$.09 -- 5 College Quickies:
1. Good for Texas Tech to hire Tommy Tuberville, a guy who never got his just due at Auburn. His calm demeanor and detail-oriented style are the perfect tonic to clean up the mess Mike Leach left behind.
2. Tim Tebow surprised a lot of personnel people by announcing he will play in the Senior Bowl, which is essentially a one-week real-action job audition in front of every coach and GM in the league. That shows he's not shy about being out of his normal element, and with the Dolphins staff coaching his team during the week, he'll get the full Parcells treatment. He can only help himself in Mobile, where the QB play last year was simply dreadful.
3. I felt terrible for Colt McCoy of Texas in the BCS title game. To get injured on a seemingly innocuous play on the first drive of the game is bad enough. But having to represent your team after the loss, knowing that your presence could very well have made a huge difference -- that showed what kind of man Colt McCoy really is. He's got his warts in terms of NFL skills, but if anyone questions his heart or leadership they're just wrong.
4. I can't help but think that Alabama will be lucky to have Nick Saban beyond next season, especially if Pete Carroll finds some success in Seattle next year. Nobody dwells on personal failure worse than Little Nicky, and he left the Dolphins with tail between legs after just two seasons. Mark my words: he'll be in the NFL again. Soon.
5. Two FCS (that's 1-AA) power coaches recently left very successful runs at their schools to jump to lower-rung FBS (1-A) programs. Bobby Hauck left Montana for UNLV, which many consider a step backwards, while Mike London took the 60-mile trip up I-64 from Richmond to the University of Virginia. UVA is a dormant doormat in the doormat of BCS conferences, while London had a legit national championship contender every year with the Spiders. I'd like to think I wouldn't have made those moves, though I can't blame either man for wanting to compete at a higher level. Good luck coaches!
Summary: Thick, powerful right tackle that epitomizes the stereotypical Big Ten lineman. Gets great pad level and fires out in run blocking, attacking with balance and very good power. Tenacious, aggressive, and nasty. Has good, not great, feet for his size. Good base strength and better than average strength with his arms extended. Gets out to the second level and is adept at engaging targets in space. Good at steering and is a surprisingly quick recovery blocker. Really swallows defenders when he gets them square. Can be stiff and lunges at shorter, quicker edge rushers. Doesn't always cover the inside blitz well. Hasn?t done a lot of trapping or pulling but has the athleticism to do it well. Comes from a school noted for producing NFL-ready blockers. Has played some left tackle and has the physical tools to play there in the NFL, though he is better suited for the right side.
NFL Comparison: A young Jon Jansen, but he has some Jake Long to him too.
Forecast: Underappreciated, woefully underrated tackle prospect with the potential to be an above-average NFL starter for a decade. I like him better than more heralded teammate Bryan Bulaga. Calloway projects right now (Jan. 10) as a late second/early third rounder a la Phil Loadholt last year, but he could climb in he shows left-side acumen in workouts.
