Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01 -- Dallas exorcised a lot of demons this past month, none bigger than the one slain in their win over Philadelphia. The disastrous game one year earlier put the entire organization below Jerry Jones on shaky ground, but to the owner's credit he believed in his team. His faith has been rewarded with a NFC East title and a home game agaist the same Eagles next week in the playoffs.
The Cowboys turned the tables with an inspired defensive effort and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's best game of the season. Both units accomplished whatever they attempted most of the day, and they did so with a precision and focus that isn't apt to just vanish into the cold Dallas night. This was a statement win that has to leave the Eagles wondering what they can do to compete next week. The Cowboys clearly wanted this one more, and the confidence they gained from dominating both lines of scrimmage makes them a legitimate threat to win the NFC. The December Doldrums are done, and if this dynamic Dallas team keeps it up, they'll be playing in February. No team in the NFC enters the postseason with more momentum or legitimate confidence, though kicking woes are a real problem.
$.02 -- It must be real hard for fans of the Colts and Saints right about now. The two #1 seeds both hit the playoff bye-week having unimpressively lost multiple games in a row. Indy didn't even try to win their final two games, but that's nothing new for them. In some twisted way, that leaves them in better shape than the Saints, who have dropped three in a row and haven't scored more than 17 points in three weeks.
This is virgin territory for New Orleans, a team that has little playoff history and relies more on an in-sync offensive attack than any other team. Their defense has regressed, too heavily reliant on forcing turnovers to get stops, and those turnovers haven't been as prolific lately. Their pass rush has all but evaporated, and opposing QBs are using the extra time to carve up a banged-up secondary. That puts even more pressure on the offense to produce big numbers, but they haven't been up to the task lately. The extra week off won't help much, especially if the divisional round opponent is a blitz-happy team like Green Bay or Arizona (it will be one or the other unless Philadelphia beats Dallas, and Philly brings the heat too). New Orleans relies so heavily on momentum and good vibes, and they hit the playoffs with neither.
The Colts have shown in the past they can flip the switch, so long as it wasn't too dim. I don't think they'll have nearly as much trouble doing so as the Saints, but rookie coach Jim Caldwell isn't exactly playing the odds here. Recent playoffs have demonstrated time and again that the hotter team usually wins, and even though Peyton Manning just had one of the greatest regular seasons ever, even he will require a couple of playoff-speed drives to shake off the month-old rust. That's even more of an imperative with the Colts' anemic running game. Caldwell had better hope that all the defenders he rested come out ready for action, because they will need to be razor sharp right away.
$.03 -- It's not just playoff teams that are fighting negative momentum. No team not picking in the top five of the upcoming draft heads into the offseason with more negative momentum and serious questions than the New York Giants. Tom Coughlin's G-Men finished December with the worst point differential of any team over the last two weeks, and only the two worst teams in the league, Detroit and St. Louis, allowed more points this season. It has been a fundamental breakdown of pretty much everything and it has not been pretty. This is a team that is constructed to win now; the defense is getting old and the OL is showing real signs of lengthening teeth as well.
I've always maintained that Eli Manning is an average quarterback, not the kind of dynamic force that can win without greatness around him. That greatness is apparently gone with Giants Stadium. The vaunted running game has lacked punch most of the season, and Eli just hasn't gotten in sync with a cadre of talented-but-inexperienced receivers. But it's the defense that should really worry Coughlin. A front four that every single pundit rated in the top-three last summer faltered all year, despite inconceivable (to this Lions fan) depth. Their linebackers simply fell apart when Antonio Pierce went down, and to quote Johnny Utah from Point Break, "He's not coming back." Even worse was the secondary, which couldn't cover anyone and missed far too many tackles. This is a critical offseason for the Giants, who find themselves decidedly behind Philly and Dallas and in real danger of bottoming out.
$.04 -- New England unfortunately provided great fodder for the "rest the starters" argument, losing their primary offensive weapon in a meaningless game on Sunday. Wes Welker tore two knee ligaments and will be out until at least the preseason, perhaps longer, after a first quarter hit left him crumpled on the turf. This is a critical blow to the Patriots' playoff hopes, as Welker is far and away their most prolific receiver. He has caught at least 111 passes in all three of his New England seasons, and Welker's presence working the middle of the field really opens things up on the outside for Randy Moss. That role now falls to Julian Edelman, who was Kent State's quarterback in 2008. Edelman isn't half bad, but the Ravens are sleeping a lot easier knowing they're facing him and not Welker.
This injury dramatically changes the AFC playoffs. New England is a team that has to outscore their opponent to compensate for a vulnerable defense. Because they struggle at times to run the ball, they use Welker on short, quick routes to compensate and keep the chains moving. Without Welker, the Patriots aren't going to outscore anyone, even a Baltimore team that relies heavily on breaking long runs to score. Had Bill Belichick chosen to sit Welker, as he did some key defensive starters, I would strongly favor New England next week. Now I don't give them more than about a 20% chance of getting past Baltimore.
$.05 -- Hardware time! I have no ballot, but here's how I would vote for the league awards this year:
MVP: 1. Peyton Manning, 2. Chris Johnson, 3. Philip Rivers
Defensive Player: 1. Charles Woodson, 2. Jared Allen, 3. Patrick Willis
Defensive Rookie: 1. Brian Cushing, 2. Brian Orakpo, 3. Louis Delmas
Coach: 1. Mike McCarthy, 2. Jim Caldwell, 3. Mike Smith
Comeback: 1. Cedric Benson, 2. Cadillac Williams, 3. Tom Brady
Ed Block Courage Award: Joe DeCamillis
$.06 -- The Rams wrapped up the #1 overall draft pick with yet another punchless effort in a loss to San Francisco. I'd like to give some credit to the 49ers for a commanding defensive performance, but the cold reality is that these Rams would have struggled against most college defenses. Six first downs, under 100 yards passing, and 10 three-and-outs is simply unacceptable for an NFL team, even one as injury-ravaged as St. Louis. Remember, the Rams only beat 2-14 Detroit this year, doing so on a fake field goal that Stevie Wonder saw coming but still caught the Lions by surprise (by the time you read this Detroit will have fired its special teams coach).
This makes for an interesting choice for Rams GM Billy Devaney. The obvious best player available is Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh, but the DL is arguably the strength of the team right now, with recent first rounders Adam Carriker and Chris Long and competent youngsters Clifton Ryan and Darell Scott up front. They could use a young QB, as Marc Bulger is aging and fragile and Keith Null clearly isn't the answer, but Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen is iffy as a top pick. The two spots where the Rams most obviously need immediate impact help are offensive tackle and outside linebacker, but you'll have a hard time finding any prospect at either spot in anyone's top five draft-eligible players, let alone #1. Rams fans will scream "trade" but the economics of the draft make that virtually impossible. Good luck, Mr. Devaney, you're going to need it.
$.07 -- Five Random Quickies:
1. If I'm Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver, I have no problem writing the check to get rid of Jack Del Rio as head coach. Jacksonville lost five of their last six to piss away a playoff berth, and the players are visibly not buying what Del Rio is selling anymore.
2. Chicago's receiving corps has taken a lot of crap this year, but they found a legit keeper in Devin Aromashodu, a tall, sure-handed target with decent feet. Which begs the question, why wasn't he playing before December when his teammates were raving about him all year long, dating back to camp? Enjoy another year of Lovie Ball, Bears fans...
3. Shane Lechler of the Oakland Raiders just completed the greatest individual season by any punter in NFL history. His net average of 44+ yards per attempt shatters the record, and his average boot of 51+ yards trails just HOFer Sammy Baugh in 1940, though Baugh had just 50 punts to Lechler's 96, plus three blocked kicks, and two returns for touchdowns. Lechler lays legitimate claim as the greatest punter ever, as he holds the highest career net average by almost two yards per kick and has ranked first or second in both gross and net punting every year this decade except 2002. Take that, Ray Guy!
4. Let's see...last year Denver squandered a great start by getting blown out by a division rival in the finale, and that got Mike Shanahan fired and Jay Cutler shipped away. In comes Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, and half the 2003 Pro Bowl defense, but nothing changed. Now what? Say goodbye to Brandon Marshall, Tony Scheffler and most of the secondary for starters.
5. How far has Jamarcus Russell, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, fallen? I exchanged texts with a former NFL GM after Sunday's loss, asking him where he would draft Russell now. His response: "Mr. Irrelevant." Russell won't be back in Oakland, and unless he completely transforms his attitude and game, he just might have thrown his last NFL pass. Move over Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich, you've got company!
$.08 -- Non-football Thought of the Week:
Too much good football this week, my mind hasn't had time to wander. I?'l devote this space this week to a perennial favorite topic: Tim Tebow. When people find out what I do, invariably one of the first questions I get is, "Do you think Tim Tebow will make it in the NFL?"
I think the Sugar Bowl is a good microcosm off all things good and bad. Tebow is clearly a rare leader, a positive force both on the field and in the locker room. He has the requisite arm strength, better than average. Tebow is physically tough and hard to tackle, moves well, and can make plays with his legs. His short-area accuracy is very good. Those are all attributes of a very good starting NFL quarterback.
But there are warts too, and these are the ones that his most fervent supporters don't like to understand. Yes, he completed 31 of 35 against Cincinnati's woefully overmatched secondary, but I saw a lot of accuracy issues. Tebow makes his receivers work far too often to make the catch; the ball is rarely right where it needs to be, it's always a couple feet high or behind where a great thrower would put it. It doesn't show up so much on short throws, where he can rocket the ball nicely, as he showed on the 7-yarder to Aaron Hernandez for a touchdown. It shows when Tebow works the deeper realms and the perimeter of the field. The ball is catchable, but the receiver either has to break stride or jump up or turn back and reach. When paired with Tebow's elongated, slow delivery, that turns into Derek Anderson in the NFL. And that's actually who I see most in Tim Tebow as a passer: Derek Anderson, a streaky, fearless slinger who can be great in short stretches, but stares down his receiver too readily, doesn't progress through his reads quickly, and almost never hits the inner circle of the bullseye. Tebow obviously has a lot more to offer as a runner, where I see him akin to a younger Daunte Culpepper: physical, strong, long-striding with good vision but not especially fast or quick.
So where does a morph between Derek Anderson and Daunte Culpepper merit being drafted? I see end of the second/top of the third round, with potential bonus points for his remarkable character attributes and marketability. The football heads don't like to acknowledge that, but you're a damned fool if you think that isn't important to teams like Jacksonville (his hometown) or Buffalo or Washington, all of whom are in the quarterback market.
$.09 -- Five Random College Thoughts:
1. Ohio State won the Rose Bowl with arguably the worst overall team they've had since the year after winning the national title. Penn State beats SEC darling LSU in the mud. Wisconsin beats down a resurgent Miami. Northwestern nearly pulls off the miracle against Auburn. Still think the Big Ten is so bad?
2. Speaking of the Rose Bowl, can someone please clue in the fine folks at Oregon that having a different color of uniform for every single game is just asinine?!? At least try and have one of your school colors somewhere on your uniform...
3. You are not going to see a better catch anywhere than Kashif Moore's one-handed stab for UConn in the PapaJohns.com Bowl. Try running at full speed and essentially palming a pigskin that is moving at fastball speed at the very end of your reach -- that's what Moore did, then kept his balance for the Huskies first touchdown. Nice finish to a difficult season in Storrs.
4. Most surprising outcome so far goes to Virginia Tech's pounding of Tennessee in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. I'm not surprised the Hokies won, even though I picked the Vols; it's the utter domination in all facets of the game that really caught me off guard. With almost everyone of importance coming back, look out for Beamer's boys next season.
5. Another friendly reminder that the only way to kill the BCS is to stop watching the BCS games on TV. You know you won't do that, so stop complaining.
$.10 -- Scouting Report: Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU. 6?1.5?, 252 pounds, 4.75 est. 40.
Positives: Extremely quick for his size, fast-twitch athlete. Great closing speed and burst, knows how to finish. Strong hands, uses them well to create space and keep blockers at bay. Relentless as a pursuer. Light on his feet with good balance, can move nimbly through traffic -- was a star RB and KR in high school. Has some pop to his hits. Generally holds backside containment well. Avoids the chip block and cut block adeptly. Takes good angles in defending the run. Gets his hands up and jumps into passing lanes pretty well. Plays special teams. Brings intensity at all times. Well-respected by his teammates and coaches for his leadership and work ethic in the weight room.
Negatives: Does not get good burst consistently off the snap. Lacks any variety to his pass rush--goes real hard and fast around the edge, easily neutralized inside. Can get too wide and is highly vulnerable to screens and misdirection/draw runs. Almost universally projected as a 3-4 OLB, a position he has not played. Much better athlete than football player, where he runs hot and cold. Needs lots of work on playing in space and dropping into coverage. Not as strong as you?d expect for someone of his physique. More quick than fast though he does have a "chase" gear that mitigates it somewhat.
Forecast: I'm never high on pass rushers who rely exclusively on speed (see Aaron Maybin), and those that have to change positions and learn new tricks rate even lower. Hughes' freakish quickness and athletic ability will get him drafted no later than the middle of the second round, but he's got a long way to go as a football player to live up to that status.
