Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 8-8, the first non-winning week of the season. 162-78 on the year.
The final week of the regular season is annually the most difficult to forecast, for a variety of reasons. Between teams having nothing to play for, or resting up for the playoffs, or giving more time to youngsters who outplay expectations, Week 17 is a real toughie. The general rule is that the team that has played better the last month wins, regardless of record, but that is not foolproof. This is definitely a week to put away the checkbook if you're a gambler, unless you're betting against the Colts, who have covered just once in Week 17 this century.
Please have a happy and safe New Year's eve and day. If you're going out, don't drink and drive. If you're starting a new diet, don't use these days to get one last gorging in. Enjoy all the football, both college and pro!
Game of the Week:
Philadelphia at Dallas: Congrats Cowboys fans, you've finally got a team that can actually play in December. And this meeting with Philly gives you the chance at ultimate catharsis, because the epitome of Dallas' recent failures came in Week 17 last year at the hands of the Eagles. That game was almost comical in terms of just how awful Dallas played in all facets of the game.
I really like the Cowboys chances to reverse that here, though it won't be easy. The Eagles lost center Jamaal Jackson, the one strong constant that unit has had all year. That means backup guard Nick Cole must handle the dynamic Jay Ratliff, the true key to the Dallas defense. The Eagles almost never run between the tackles so the impact is lessened there, but Dallas has the quickness in coverage at LB to slow down the horizontal passing game that Philly uses in place of that. I also like the inside-outside running package that Dallas uses, which keeps the Philly back seven honest. Marion Barber has to play well, and I believe he will. Cowboys 27, Eagles 24.
Key Games:
Pittsburgh at Miami: Both teams are clinging to playoff life, but their teeth are essentially skinless. Both teams are also beaten up at key spots, and that's a big reason why neither team is going to make the big dance. Because this is an early game, there will still be hope for the winner to somehow sneak in, and because of that I expect a physical contest. Normally that would favor the Steelers, but they simply do not run the ball consistently enough to make that happen. They also are real vulnerable to the play action pass with no Polamalu, and Chad Henne has the arm to find those deep holes. I don't see it happening often, but I also don't see Pittsburgh getting so amazingly lucky like they did a week ago, when Baltimore had three touchdowns wiped out by penalties and a wide-open drop in the end zone as well. Miami is tough at home and Pittsburgh just 2-5 on the road. All that equals a Miami win. Dolphins 25, Steelers 21.
New Orleans at Carolina: Carolina's late-season surge has been real impressive, but I think it ends here. No Steve Smith means nobody for Matt Moore to count on or throw to, and nobody that can challenge the Saints secondary. Jonathan Stewart just might run wild again, but the opportunistic Saints D can create a turnover or two while stacking the box. With most offensive starters expected to play at least a half, New Orleans is looking to rediscover its rhythm. I don't think Carolina's run defense can dial up another effort like last week, and their secondary cannot cover all those weapons. The Saints right the ship heading into their playoff bye with a 33-24 win.
Green Bay at Arizona: These teams are very likely to play again next week in the Wild Card round, which likely means a very vanilla game. The exception is if the Cards can still snare the #2 seed. So here's a layered forecast: if this game means nothing in the standings and a rematch next week, Green Bay wins on pass defense and better depth. If the Cards can earn a bye with the win (they'll know before they kick off), they'll get it. Sorry for the cop-out, but man I love me some of my wife's Christmas waffles...
New England at Houston: Here's why Bill Belichick is a better coach than anyone else you can name. Instead of decreeing this a week of rest or pushing his team to close out strong in a meaningless (to them) game, he puts it on his players to decide. If anyone (cough, RandyMoss, cough) decides to take it off, he has to answer to a veteran locker room instead of half-hearted sniping to the media. Brilliant! That's bad news for Houston, which needs a win and some help to make the franchise's first trip to the playoffs. The Texans offense is well-suited to exploit the Pats weak secondary and wishy-washy pass rush, and I like how rookie RB Arian Foster has run with confidence. Still, I expect the Patriots to handle this like a first-round playoff game, and that equals a New England victory and perhaps the end of the Gary Kubiak era in Houston. New England 31, Houston 25.
Cincinnati at New York Jets: The Jets are win-and-they're-in, and the Bengals lack the vertical passing game to stretch the tough New York defense. As these teams could very well meet next week in the Wild Card game, expect the Bengals to play close to the vest even if they come out with the intention of laying a beat down. New York cruises into the playoffs, 23-13.
New York Giants at Minnesota: A couple of Xs and Os observations of why the Vikings are swooning. First is that defenses have found a successful scheme to attack their giant tackles, sending blitzes to the B gap (that's between the G and T) while using an aggressive speed rush outside. It's causing hesitation and keeping them off-balance, and that leads to the guards trying too hard to help and Favre not being real comfortable. Secondly, they really miss EJ Henderson at MLB on defense. Jasper Brinkley can thump with the best of them, but he's very straight-linish and stiff and a major liability in coverage. Teams are doing a better job of chipping at Jared Allen and rolling the pocket at him, which ironically is quite effective at negating his pass rush because it takes his speed out of the equation and puts him in more traffic.
The Giants are good enough and versatile enough defensively to accomplish #1, though it sure looks like some guys in the defensive front have already mailed it in. They are not good enough at #2 for a barrage of reasons, chief among them the lack of speed at TE and Eli Manning's reluctance to throw intermediate middle routes to anyone but Steve Smith. The Vikings have coverage problems but they can handle simpler routes, and the Giant offense is one of the simplest in the league to ascertain what they're doing on any given play. Minnesota gets a little momentum building with a 30-26 win over the G-Men.
Playing Out The String:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: As impressive as Tampa hung tough after falling behind early to New Orleans, eventually clawing back for the most improbable win of 2009, I just don't think they can do it again. They proved their point, they (perhaps) saved their coach's job, and they threw the bone to their fans. Gnaw on it, Bucs fans, because Atlanta isn't the type of team to collapse or take off a "meaningless" game. The Falcons very much want to finish 9-7 and complete the first back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history. They'll get that done despite even more defensive injuries. Atlanta 31, Tampa Bay 17.
Kansas City at Denver: If it's December and the game matters, expect Denver to lose. That's one of my rules of thumb for forecasting, sort of like "if there's going to be a tornado, it's going to hit a trailer park." The problem here is that Kansas City offers little turbulence to create any sort of foul weather for Denver, and even if they get a small cyclone going it's not likely to do more than minimal damage. Jamaal Charles will have another big day and proves that KC doesn't need a RB this offseason...the only offensive position where they're not lacking. It's not enough. Denver 27, Kansas City 18.
Jacksonville at Cleveland: This is actually the hardest game for me to pick this week. Cleveland has won three in a row, but it's been just as much the other teams beating themselves than the Browns really playing well. The Jaguars have apparently mailed it in for the year, but what they do well (pound between the tackles, conservative intermediate passes) is exactly the blueprint for attacking the Browns defense. I don't trust Derek Anderson to be accurate enough often enough to take advantage of the Jags' inept safety play. Still, the Jaguars get so little pass rush and will miss so many tackles that I think the Browns can just eke out enough points to win. Cleveland takes a 4-game winning streak into 2010...just in time to watch new GM Mike Holmgren blow it all up. Browns 24, Jaguars 21.
Baltimore at Oakland: I keep hearing everyone say that this will be no easy trip for the Ravens, who will make the playoffs if they win. I can't help but think none of those people watched Charlie Frye and the Raiders play the Browns last Sunday, because that team wouldn't beat anyone, let alone a desperate, talented Ravens team. Oakland probably won't have two players ejected again, but their offense is in major trouble against Baltimore. Ravens make the playoffs with a 20-9 road win.
Tennessee at Seattle: Chris Johnson is aiming for a 2,000 yard rushing season in just about the only reason to pay any attention to this one. Seahawks fans might want to catch what may be the last game for Matt Hasselbeck, he of the eight interceptions in two weeks and chronic nagging injuries. Last year in a meaningless finale, Jeff Fisher's troops went out and beat the Colts, so you know they're going to play hard. These Seahawks are playing like they can't wait to clean out their lockers. Johnson gets his 2,000 yards in a 27-10 Titans victory.
Chicago at Detroit: Sometimes I just need to shut off my brain. A couple weeks ago I had penciled in the Lions for a win here, thinking that the Bears would have thrown in the towel and that Detroit would have the firepower to ravage a disappointing defense. Then last week happened, and now I'm torn. There is simply no way Chicago can summon a repeat performance of Monday night's impressive upset of the Vikings, which was a prime-time home game they had circled on their calendar for weeks. I think they'll be flat, unmotivated, and prone to the defensive gaffes that allowed Favre to lead the Vikings back. The problem is, the Lions we saw last week against the 49ers are very likely to be the ones that show up at Ford Field. Seven turnovers probably won't happen again, but the inability to get any sort of offensive rhythm or sustained threat is just not realistic with Drew Stanton at QB. Detroit's defense isn't good enough up front to punish the Bears shaky OL, which has improved with Chris Williams moving to LT and Kevin Shaffer manning RT (a move called for here in Week 5). In short, a flat Bears team can, and will, win this game over a Lions team that just doesn't have the talent with so many key players injured. Chicago 34, Detroit 10.
Indianapolis at Buffalo: If the Colts had any respect for the game at all, they'd come out with guns blazing and dominate this game as a final tune-up before taking two weeks off and hosting a second-round game. Need proof they don't get it? Peyton Manning will start just to keep his consecutive game streak going, then Coach Caldwell will yank him and several other key players and let the benchwarmers play the game. If you're going to rest players out of fear of injury, you don't let them play a single snap. It's ridiculous that after years of doing this and watching it blow up in their faces that Caldwell & Co. would even consider this asinine "rest" tactic. There's a devilish side to me that would love to see Manning get hurt on the opening play. There's also a devilish side that makes me think if I were Jim Caldwell I'd keep real quiet this week and then come out and play this game like it's the Super Bowl, just to shut up everyone like me. That would be cool, but hell doesn't freeze over even on the frozen shores of Lake Erie in January. Bills 24, Colts 20.
San Francisco at St. Louis: As a Lions fan I'm shamelessly hoping the Rams pull the unlikely upset here, thus giving the #1 overall pick to Detroit. Ndamukong Suh would cure a lot of what ails Detroit, but of course he'd do that in St. Louis too. You'll see why they need him as San Fran runs wild here. 49ers 30, Rams 10.
Washington at San Diego: Playoff rest alert! San Diego has nothing to play for, with the #2 seed and a bye already locked up. But Norv Turner knows what he's doing here, and you'd better believe beating the Redskins is very important to him. His players know that, and they can come out and dominate for a half and coast home. Washington has a lame duck coaching staff, a decimated OL, and a very long plane ride to close out the season. San Diego jumps out big early, then the second half becomes Puntfest 2010. Chargers 29, Redskins 13.
