Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01 -- Tampa Bay's incredible overtime upset of New Orleans proves the Saints are in serious playoff trouble. It's one thing to drop a game to a hungry, talented Dallas team, but legit Super Bowl contenders simply don't lose in December to bottom-feeders like the Bucs. What should really scare Saints fans is that the problem in this game was the offense. The Buccaneers entered the game in the bottom five of almost every defensive metric, yet they blanked New Orleans from the middle of the second quarter onward. Saints fans have clung to the notion that their high-powered offense can overcome all, but when they sputter against a defense they should light up -- they beat the Bucs 38-7 last month -- it shows major vulnerability heading into the time when the games really matter. Tampa exploited the Saints defensive line with aggressive, smash-mouth run blocking, a malady that has plagued the Saints for years. That 13-0 start means nothing anymore, and now the Saints must hope to salvage a little momentum and some confidence against a suddenly-hot Panthers team in Charlotte.
For the first half of the season I believed in these Saints, but since their thrashing of New England this has not been one of the five best teams in the NFC. One of the ways to gauge how well a team is playing is by examining their record against the point spread. The Saints have covered just twice since Halloween. All hope is not gone, as the Cardinals proved last season that truly great offenses can indeed flip the switch come playoff time. But it does not look good for New Orleans, who will now draw a Wild Card Weekend winner much hotter than they are playing.
$.02 -- The Chargers made quite a Christmas statement, annihilating the Titans in Tennessee. That's 10 in a row this year and 18 in a row in December for San Diego. It's time to start mentioning Philip Rivers in the MVP race as he leads the Chargers to a playoff bye. Though he doesn't have eye-popping numbers, it's the consistency of which he puts up strong outputs that makes him so valuable. Rivers simply doesn't have off days; you can ink him in for something very close to 23-31 for 285 yards, two or three touchdowns and converting more than half his third down throws. In the Titans' game they converted seven third downs in a row, salting away some valuable clock and sucking the life out of the Titans.
Now San Diego is faced with an interesting "problem." They play the moribund Redskins in their finale, already with an extended rest, and with nothing to play for at all. They're going to be off two more weeks after that through the bye week, which means they could go three Sundays in a row without playing if they choose to rest Rivers, LT, and friends. I'm a fierce advocate of playing every game like it matters, and I hope Norv Turner doesn't get scared of injuries and see his razor-sharp team dull without use.
$.03 -- Hey Carolina fans, still want John Fox's head? A week after his Panthers team routed and embarrassed the Vikings on national television, they went out and did it again to the Giants. The Panthers were clearly the more prepared, more focused team both weeks, which is saying something considering the Vikings were playing for the #1 seed and the Giants were playing for their playoff lives, in the last game at Giants Stadium no less.
The Panthers apparently found themselves a quarterback in Matt Moore, but what is really stunning is that Carolina has done this with their two bookend tackles, Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah, on IR. For a run-oriented team to lose two premier run blockers -- Otah might be the best run blocking right tackle in the NFL -- and actually thrive is a testament to Fox's coaching acumen. I've long supported Fox and never understood the fervor (mostly from outside Carolina ignoramuses) for firing him. This nice late-season run with a banged-up team and a backup quarterback should tell Panthers owner Bill Richardson that the changes he needs to make with his team do not include the coaching staff.
$.04 -- I'm not big on the network pregame shows, but I have to commend Fox for their animated discussion of the Favre/Childress nonsense. They presented several impassioned, educated viewpoints that reflected real differences in perception and perspective. I found Terry Bradshaw's plaintive, "If the coach tells me to sit down, I'm sitting" refreshingly antiquated, and Michael Strahan's bemused reaction candid. But Jimmy Johnson's frustrated, enough-of-this-sh** "So what!" captured my feelings perfectly. They did an excellent job presenting all sides of the (non)-story, and the commentators disagreed without just shouting over one another a la ESPN or waiting for someone to feed Dan Marino lines at CBS so he can say something other than "Dan throwed football hard." Well done Fox!
$.05 -- The Colts apparently have little regard for history, however inglorious it might be. Once again Indy pulled most of the prominent starters at halftime of the game against New York, and the reserves got pounded by the inspired, desperate Jets. It was a meaningless game for the Colts in terms of wins and losses, but once again they seem hellbent on pissing away yet another outstanding regular season by yanking all rhythm and momentum from the key players as the playoffs approach. It's more pronounced for the Colts, who rely more heavily on precise timing and synchronicity between Peyton Manning and his wideouts and linemen. What's worse with this one is that they just might see these very same Jets in the Divisional Round, and now they've given the Jets the confidence that they can in fact beat up the mighty Colts. It's a terrible move by a franchise that absolutely should know better. If you know you're going to rest them, the time to do it was last week in the Jaguars game.
$.06 -- 5 Random NFL Quickies:
1. The Browns have their running back of the future in Jerome Harrison. They do not have their quarterback of the future in Derek Anderson, however. For every one nice throw he makes, he misses five. Badly.
2. Something to file away -- three fairly prominent names that won't be wearing the same uniforms next season: DeAngelo Williams of Carolina, Glenn Dorsey of Kansas City and Anquan Boldin of Arizona. Humble first-guess for new destinations: Williams to New England, Dorsey to Detroit, and Boldin to Baltimore.
3. David Garrard of the Jaguars became just the third quarterback in the last 15 years to start at least 15 games in a season and not throw a touchdown in eight or more games. The others? David Carr of the first year Texans in 2002 and Trent Dilfer with the 1995 Tampa Bay Bucs.
4. I completely respect what they accomplished, but would every single member of the 1972 Dolphins please shut up already?!? Don Shula is the latest to show that team's completely vapid lack of class, releasing a press statement "congratulating" the Colts after their loss. Mr. Shula, you are better than that.
5. Thanks to the Oakland Raiders for teaching my son that it's dumb and wrong to head butt someone, throw a ball at an opponent that just tackled you, and bump into an official in anger. And he only watched half the game...
$.07 -- Seattle's offense has fallen off so dramatically it's scary. The offensive line needs at least two, probably three, new starters, including both tackle spots. They have major issues at wide receiver, where Nate Burleson and Deion Branch are talented but unreliable and T.J. Houshmanzadeh is not a true #1. Matt Hasselbeck appears done at quarterback and Seneca Wallace is not the answer. Even running back could stand an upgrade, or at least a between-the-tackles pounder to complement Justin Forsett. But it's deeper than talent; this team needs to scrap the Holmgren-era West Coast offense and play a scheme that suits their stadium and climate, not to mention their division rivals, better. Seattle is a lot closer to the bottom than the top, and with a newfound need at quarterback and the inexplicable failure of deposed general manager Tim Ruskell (or Holmgren) to ever seriously address the aging offensive-line, the road up sure looks like a long one.
$.08 -- Non-Football Thought of the Week:
Those who know me well know that my most fervent fandom is for the Cleveland Cavaliers. I have lived and (mostly) died with my Cavs for over 30 years, so I'm probably a little sensitive to this, but I am incredibly frustrated with the "expert" perceptions of the Cavaliers. They absolutely destroyed the Lakers in the Staples Center on Christmas, raising their record against the mighty Western Conference to an NBA-best 10-3. They hold the league's best record against teams that are .500 or better. Cleveland leads the league in opposing points in the paint and rank in the top three in almost every defensive metric. They have three of the most accurate three-point shooters in the league in Anthony Parker, Mo Williams and Boobie Gibson. They have held 14 of their opponents to their lowest scoring outputs of the season; no other team has done that to more than three. And they have the reigning MVP in LeBron James, who desperately wants to win a title for his hometown so he can leave without remorse next summer.
So why is it that almost nobody thinks the Cavs are legit title contenders? I watch ESPN's coverage and their "talent" seems genuinely surprised that the Cavs are going to make the playoffs, let alone make the Finals. TNT and Fox are much the same but (except for Charles Barkley) not as obnoxiously ignorant about it. Even the message board faithful here on RealGM.com don't seem to give credit or legitimacy to the Cavs and how darn good they truly are this season. I still see way too much "Shaq isn't the answer" and "they don't shoot well enough" or "the Lakers will sweep them easy" talk. I'm asking all you true basketball fans out there to put away the preconceptions and lingering hatred of all things LeBron (which I empathize with) and just watch this team play. They make their opponents look like five guys who have never met before almost every night, and they play with passion and a much better flow than last year. Remember that when the Cavaliers beat the Lakers 4-2 in the Finals, because I'll remember all the people who insist they can't get past the second round.
$.09 --Urban Meyer's sudden departure from Florida, and his subsequent backtrack, highlights everything that is wrong with college football. When he first announced he was stepping down in order to focus on his health and his family, I was both shocked and proud. Coaching takes a tremendous physical toll on these men, often working 100+ hours a week year-round. That also makes family relations a real challenge, and I was hopeful that Meyer's actions would start a trend and maybe shed more light on the completely unnecessary and overwhelming time demands on coaches.
Then Meyer comes out on Sunday and essentially says, "just kidding." Technically, Meyer is now on an indefinite leave of absence, but that will definitely end before next season starts. Now what seemed like a heartfelt, heart-warming decision suddenly looks a whole lot like a coach trying to weasel out of recruiting and get some extra time off. I know that is cynical, but the almost instantaneous flip-flop strikes me as hollow and insulting. Meyer couldn't even commit one full day to his family and his health problems, not 24 hours. I understand and kind of admire his passion for his players and the program, but to trumpet yourself as committed to your family and then throw them overboard less than a day later?! Sorry Coach, I'm not buying it. Wake up and smell what you're shoveling.
Positives: Tall and athletic with a big arm. Has a big-time rifle and the confidence to throw the ball anywhere on the field. High release point and very consistent, solid footwork. Gets rid of the ball quickly, can drop his arm angle and still fling it with zip and accuracy if needed. Very good at reading coverages and diagnosing blitzes and mismatches. Stands tough in the pocket, hard to sack. Can make plays with his legs but is better at extending the play and buying time while still looking downfield, a la Ben Roethlisberger. Goes through his progressions well and doesn't force throws. Has had to work hard for everything he?s accomplished, as he was low on the depth chart and had to earn the confidence of his coaches and teammates. Mentally strong, positive leader. Proven winner with a knack for coming through in the clutch.
Negatives: Has fewer starts than most senior QBs and comes from a run-n-shoot type offense. Needs to improve his touch on shorter throws across the middle, winds up getting a lot of balls bouncing off his receivers. Some scouts have questioned his durability, and the ferocity with which he torques his shoulder when he throws could lead to issues. Had troubles early in his career at dwelling on his mistakes and losing focus, which is why (in part) he has played less than 2 full seasons. Has had to shake the reputation of not being real fond of the film room; he?s accomplished that but old impressions die hard. Can get animated with his receivers on miscues, which is a positive with some but a negative with others. Accuracy is merely good, not pinpoint. The team didn't fall off at all when he was sidelined and replaced by a freshman, which lends credence to the "it's the system not the QB" critics.
NFL Comparison: A poor man's Ben Roethlisberger crossed with Derek Anderson.
Forecast: His huge arm and great athleticism for his height are hard to ignore, and he?s put up big numbers for a two-time BCS Bowl team. Even when you factor in the negatives--and his are readily apparent and more plentiful than many teams are comfortable with--it?s hard to see Pike falling below the first few picks of the second round. Fits in the 25-40 overall range.
