Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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After being dead on correct last week, my methodology of matchups moves from hypothesis to theory. I'll try my hand at the Divisional Games and work on "law" status.
Pittsburgh@Indianapolis Matchups that decide: Pittsburgh's spotty deep pass coverage against Peyton Manning and his merry band of big play wideouts. The "Carson Palmer injury" play was not a fluke. No, not the shredding of Palmer's knee, but rather the Bengals throwing over the top of a defense hellbent on stuffing the run. Unless Manning's knee gets blown out, the Colts will attack in the same manner. On the first play in their earlier meeting, Manning hit Marvin Harrison for an 80-yard TD. Plus the Colts line protects Manning very well. Factor into that Edgerrin James exploding through the line versus a stretched defense, and it could be very ugly for the visitors.
Pittsburgh's methodical, yet versatile, running attack against the Colts' front 7. The Colts defense is predicated upon unleashing the pass rush and bringing the DBs into the box to stuff the run. Bob Sanders and Mike Doss are both big hitters, but Jerome Bettis is still an effective punishing runner, and Willie Parker has the speed and acceleration to break the big run outside. The Colts did a great job in Week 12, but the Steelers promise to stick to the gameplan and chew up the clock.
Bonus factor: The Steelers have been very successful on both special teams and gadget plays. Don't forget the Browns had the Colts beat if two punt return for TDs were not called back.
I like the Colts' strengths more than the Steelers' strengths, though I do think Pittsburgh will have offensive success. Colts win by 8.
Washington@Seattle Matchups that decide: Shaun Alexander running against the stiff Redskins run defense. The NFL MVP has rarely been slowed this year, but the Redskins have outstanding, fast linebackers. Washington plays on edge, and if they have early success stuffing the run it will only manifest into dominance. That means Matt Hasselbeck will have to loosen them up with screens and quick hitting slants and outs, and that's not the strength of their receivers.
Washington's anemic offense versus the Seattle fans. No stadium produced more motion and delay penalties than Seattle, and the fans are hungry for their first playoff win since 1984. Last week the Redskins accomplished nothing against Tampa Bay. While Seattle's D is not Bucs caliber, they're better than their reputation. The Redskins cannot win without a big day from Clinton Portis, but he's running into the #2 ranked home run defense (adjusted rank). Mark Brunell cannot repeat the poor decisions he made last week and expect to win. The expected rain slogged field will help negate the homerun ability of Santana Moss, and the Redskins have only one other reliable receiver, TE Chris Cooley.
Bonus factor: The Redskins get elite CB Shawn Springs back, and he's facing his former team. He elevates the Redskins secondary from pretty good to outstanding. And they're coached by Joe Gibbs and his 17-5 playoff record.
If this game were anywhere but Seattle, I'd take the Redskins handily. I still like the Redskins to eke it out, but only if Brunell takes care of the football.
New England@Denver Matchups that decide: Denver and its versatile offensive attack against New England's poor secondary. The Patriots have been brutal in pass coverage, and teams with multiple wideout threats destroyed them all year. Jake Plummer gets to throw to Rod Smith, Ashley Leile, and two very good pass catching TEs. Mike Shanahan is an offensive mastermind who feels no shame in repeatedly whipping a defense with the same plays over and over. Throw in a selfless running combo of Tatum Bell and Mike Anderson, and the Broncos can modify their attack against whatever the Pats' strong front 7 takes away.
Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk attacking a run defense vulnerable to shifty backs. Both backs are excellent receivers and very good in pass protection, which further stunts the Broncos' weak pass rush. It also keeps the LBs shorter in coverage, which opens up the intermediate crossing routes and flood plays in which the Patriots excel. Nobody sees the field better than Tom Brady, and if Dillon is able to get 4 or 5 yards per carry, that field will have some big holes to exploit.
Bonus factor: Tom Brady. He's the best pressure QB since Joe Montana, and Mike Shanahan's teams haven't exactly responded well to pressure since John Elway retired.
All logic and regular season observations portend a Denver victory by about 10 points. But I believe in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and the magic of the Patriots' winning 3 of 4 Super Bowls. New England somehow steals a win.
Carolina@Chicago Matchups that decide: There's only one here--which team controls the field position battle and turnovers. I could go on for pages about the impact of Rex Grossman, the Steve Smith/Mushin Muhammad battle, the dominating DLs and ball hawking secondaries, but in every case it all comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes on offense and special teams. I like Carolina's return game and I like Jake Delhomme's experience more than I like Rex Grossman and his 39 pass attempts this season. Chicago won the first matchup this season in an ugly, defense domainted affair. Carolina has just enough offensive talent to make adjustments and put together a couple of scoring drives, while Chicago doesn't.
Bonus factor: Ricky Proehl, whose speed and excellent hands can take advantage of Bears CB Charles Tillman's gambling style.
I like the Panthers in a game where neither team breaks 17 points.
Let's see how my science fares. Keep in mind the only science I've ever excelled at is meteorology, where being 75% right is reason for applause.
