Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
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The regular season is over and the cream of the NFL crop has moved into the playoffs. Now that the formalities of creaming cupcakes and vanquishing playoff pretenders are dispensed, it's time for the great teams to separate themselves from the merely good.
Playoff games are all about matchups. Can one team do something exceptionally well that the other team cannot counteract? How does the strengths of one team match against the weaknesses of the other team? If their strengths are neutralized, which team can improvise its way to superiority? That's how to go about picking the playoff winners. Here's the matchups that should determine the outcomes of the Sunday games in the Wild Card round.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati:
Pittsburgh loves to run the ball. Cincy's defense is in the bottom 3rd against the run. The ability of the Steelers to change running styles with the pounding Jerome Bettis and the speedy Willie Parker means that the Bengals will have even more trouble stopping the run. Actually, the Bengals defense has really only done one thing well--force turnovers, which they do better than anyone. Ben Roethlisberger is a very efficient passer and the Steelers have a great pass-catching TE in Heath Miller, while the Bengals are horrible at covering TEs. The Bengals are significantly better against the run at home, and their stats are also badly skewed by the Bengals mailing in the last two games. Despite Pittsburgh's perceived advantage, the Bengals have seen what's coming twice already. Experience and turnovers are great equalizers, so this Steeler leg up isn't as long as most people think.
On the other side, Cincy has an explosive, versatile offense, rated 6th in both rushing and passing according to adjusted stats. Pittsburgh has been very good all season at both rush and pass defense. They're in the top 8 in both categories. They also do pretty well in covering all WRs, though they struggle against both backs and TEs. Against both the Lions and Browns in the last two weeks, receivers were open deep and TEs went uncovered. One thing that will help the Bengals exploit these holes is their great offensive line. Carson Palmer is good enough to hit Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh when they're open if he has the time. The Steelers need to blitz to create pressure, and Palmer is poised enough to find the open routes. As good as the Steelers are at scheming and attacking, Cincy has one of the best counterpunch offenses around, and Marvin Lewis is an excellent tactician.
My prediction: Cincy wins because they have the proven ability to force turnovers and their offense can hit the homerun, while the Steelers D is built around snuffing out short hits. Pittsburgh can and will move the ball on the Cincy D, but the Bengals have solid red zone D at home. I also trust Shayne Graham, the Bengals kicker, to win a game. But the Steelers could pull it out if the turnover margin is no worse than -1 and they contain the deep ball on defense.
Carolina at New York Giants:
This is an interesting matchup of matchups, as the strengths of both teams are facing the weaknesses of the other. The Giants feature a very good running game, led by explosive Tiki Barber. Barber is one of the very best at getting into the secondary quickly on his runs. An inferior back with a similar style, Julius Jones of the Cowboys, put up 194 against them in Week 16. The Panthers have pretty solid pass coverage from their DBs, but none of them are great tacklers. Fortunately for the Panthers, their D-line and LBs are both excellent, which helps them rate 4th overall against the run. And because those DBs cover well, those LBs can blitz Eli Manning and keep TE Jeremy Shockey more responsible in pass protection, something he's not real adept at doing. Eli has seen his passer rating decline almost 33% since Week 10, and he hasn't faced the likes of the Panthers' ferocious pass rush. For as heralded as the Giants' pass rush has become, the Panthers recorded more sacks (45-41) and more INTs (23-17) despite playing from behind significantly longer than the Giants did this season.
Carolina's biggest bugaboo has been their running game. They wound up ranking 19th in rushing, but they had the 3rd worst yards per carry average at a wimpy 3.4YPC. The Panthers are without Stephen Davis, their workhorse and designated TD scorer, and must use Deshaun Foster. Foster erupted for 165 yards last week, but that was against an Atlanta team that quit before it took the field. He'd broken 75 yards in a game only once before that, and Foster has a lousy health history to boot. All this is facing a Giants D that rated 3rd in adjusted run defense. The Giants are playing with a depleted LB corps, but their safeties are both excellent run defenders and sure tacklers. The only shot the Panthers have here is Foster breaking a long run, which he has done many times.
The Panthers also really only have one dimension to their passing game--Steve Smith. Smith caught over 100 balls. The next closest wideout was Ricky Proehl with 25, and just 13 of those gained more than 10 yards. Despite that, nobody could contain Smith all season. The Giants' pass D looks much better in raw terms (9th) than adjusted terms (18th). Their pass defense is predicated on generating pressure with their front line, something they do very well. But Jake Delhomme was sacked more by non-linemen than D-linemen, so the Panthers' OL has a shot at neutralizing the Giants' biggest defensive weapon.
My prediction: Carolina's defensive ability against both the run and the pass, plus playoff rookie Eli Manning facing a ballhawking secondary, spells victory in a game where neither team scores more than 2 offensive TDs. The Giants have exceptional special teams, great at everything except one crucial area: kicking FGs late in games. The Panthers aren't far behind in coverage and returns, and their kicker has made playoff game winners in the past. Carolina wins in a runaway if they can run the ball early.
