Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01--Jeff Fisher never gets the credit he deserves. His seemingly overmatched Titans nearly upset the Seahawks, but the way the game flowed is what really impressed me. Down 14-0 to a far more talented team, the Titans ran off 24 points and would have surely won the game had Chris Brown converted the 4th and 1 inside the Seattle 10. That gutsy call shows the very young Titans that their coach believes in them and isn't afraid to put the game in their hands. When those 33 players with less than 3 years of experience on their roster are more developed, it's games and coaching like that which will make them very good very quickly.
$.02--The other side of the coaching coin was flipped in Washington, where the Cowboys were apathetically mauled by the Redskins. I didn't expect them to beat the Redskins in Washington, but I did expect them to play. When a team with as much talent as the Cowboys fails to show anything against an archrival in a game with severe playoff consequences, that's a terrible reflection on the coaching staff. The game was over after Bledsoe's first pass. If the Cowboys lay a similar egg this weekend at Carolina, Jerry Jones needs to fire Bill Parcells, because then it will be clear he has no respect from his team.
$.03--Everyone keeps talking about how the Texans are blowing the "Reggie Bush Sweepstakes" by winning. If anything, the Texans have proven the past few games the last thing that team needs is an upgrade at RB. Domanick Davis and Jonathan Wells are an above-average RB duo saddled with a terrible line and a floundering QB, on a team that's usually behind a couple TDs in the first half. The Texans need, in no particular order, major upgrades at LT, LG, C, WR, ILB, and both S positions. Putting Reggie Bush on that team would be akin to painting the porch while the kitchen's on fire.
$.04--Give Lovie Smith lots of credit for his handling of the QB situation. Instead of caving to fan pressure and making the quick switch to Rex Grossman, he let Kyle Orton play himself onto the bench. That was a completely different Bears offense in the 2nd half, and that spark wouldn't have burned near as long or as bright had Grossman started the game against the Falcons. Now the offense has confidence in its leader and the ability to stretch the defense for their already good running game. By making such a positive splash on a nationally broadcast game, Grossman won over both his teammates and the fickle Chicago fans. That move likely bought the Bears an extra playoff round.
$.05--I'm not one of those people who believes that losing a game will make you better prepared in the playoffs, but I think the Colts will benefit from the loss to the Chargers. Peyton Manning has always had a bit of the yips in pressure-packed games, and now he can just focus on winning a Super Bowl instead of winning the title of Greatest Team Ever. It's a subtle distinction, but it matters. You can bet the defense is more motivated for the challenge of Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks now that a seldom used 2nd year backup, Michael Turner, ruined their perfect season. I would have picked the Seahawks had the Colts beaten the Chargers, but now I'm picking the Colts to come out firing.
$.06--The Saints made the right move in benching Aaron Brooks. This is a lost year for everyone associated with that franchise, and the indignity of the yanking should motivate Brooks to improve his game for next season, wherever he might land. He'll always be a bit error prone and erratic, but he's proven he's a good starting QB. Put him on a team with a solid running game and dynamic receivers who can get deep, and Brooks could easily regain his mojo. Hmm, Detroit and Arizona both fit that bill. The Saints also make the most sense as the draft destination of Matt Leinart. Every other team in the running for the top 2 picks would likely take Bush (my Texans opinion notwithstanding), but the Saints have Deuce McAlister coming back.
$.07--No team plays to the level of its competition more than Jacksonville, which is why it's a mistake to write them off in the playoffs. Yes they almost lost to Houston, Arizona and San Francisco. They also won at Pittsburgh when that team was at full strength, had two single-digit losses to the Colts, and posted impressive wins over both Cincy and Seattle. They likely get a brutal 1st round draw and head to New England, and I would never pick against the Pats at home. But I would bet the Jaguars make it more of a fight than most people expect.
$.08--Now that Tiki Barber has mastered the art of hanging onto the ball, he's one of the 3 best all-around backs in the game. He's always been a good receiver and better than most at blitz pickup. He appears to have more confidence in his own hands now that the fumblitis is cured, and that makes him much harder to tackle. He's a great model for smaller backs, a patient runner who has worked hard at improving his weaknesses. I'm not sure about all the MVP talk, but he does belong in the conversation.
$.09--Calling my shot for the playoff spots. In the AFC the Wild Cards will be Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, who wins the tiebreaker with San Diego based on beating them in Week 5. Cincy will earn the other 1st round bye. In the NFC I see Carolina winning the South and the Giants cementing the East. Tampa will hold on for one wild card. Washington gets the other if they can win at Philly on New Years Day. If they can't, then Minnesota will capitalize after upsetting the Bears and complete a remarkable turnaround. None of the Wild Card teams will win a playoff game if it plays out the way I see it.
$.10--The top 10 on my draft board: 1. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, 2. Reggie Bush, 3. Matt Leinart, 4. AJ Hawk, 5. Mario Williams, 6. Matthias Kiwanuka, 7. Jimmy Williams, 8. DeAngelo Williams, 9. Mike Huff, 10. Tamba Hali. I'm assuming both Vince Young and Brady Quinn stay in school, as they should. Neither would drop below #3 in 2007, but neither would crack the top 5 this year.
