Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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This week examines 5 prominent players who have suffered through miserable 2005 seasons. Though the reasons for the declines vary from player to player, there is a common question surrounding all of them. Is it time for teams to give up on them, or can they bounce back into being an impact stud once again? Here's my advice for the GMs, free of charge.
1. Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore Ravens.
The numbers:
Last 4 seasons, Lewis averaged 91 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns.
This season, Lewis is averaging 53 yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry, and has 2 TDs.
Lewis spent his summer in prison camp instead of training camp, and he was clearly affected by his whole legal wranglings. He's had nagging injuries in the past and tacked on a few more dings this year. He's also playing behind a weaker offensive line and shares the backfield with one of the worst QB situations in the NFL. The Ravens haven't had much of anything work out the way they (or I) expected this year, and Lewis is the guy who exemplifies it best. He's a power runner who excels at taking the first hit with a full head of steam beyond the line of scrimmage. This season he's often getting first contact in the backfield, and his knee problems have robbed him of some of his skill at bouncing outside or cutting back. He's also at the end of his contract and has expressed frustration with the Ravens for not giving him a lucrative extension. Still, he's only 26 and he's just two seasons removed from a 2,000 yard season.
The verdict: He's not a threat for 2,000 yards again, but with a solid O-line and a competent passing game he could still be a strong #1 running back and 1,200 yard rusher. The Ravens should apply the franchise tag, give him a one year shot at redemption, and then make their decision after next season.
2. Leonard Little, DL, St. Louis Rams.
The numbers:
Last 4 seasons, Little averaged 12 sacks and 4 forced fumbles a season.
This season, Little has 4 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.
Another guy with legal issues beyond most athletes, Little has done little well this season. He's been a guy with a great combination of burst and power, a guy who offenses needed to scheme for or pay the consequences. This season Little hasn't shown the brute force, and he's had trouble shedding blocks. He's also playing on a team that is usually behind early and struggles against the run, which stymies a pass rush like nothing else. The entire Rams D-line has not played to expectation, so he's not getting help there either. He's 31, he's not much of a leader, and he carries a negative stigma with his numerous legal woes. Still, he's consistently been a double-digit sack guy and a disruptive force, and he's shown ability to blow up screen passes and draws like few others.
The verdict: He's on the downside, and fans who know
his history will rightly hold that against him. If a team can get him affordably for one or two years, he's worth a gamble for a playoff-caliber team that plays a 4-3 and can stop the run reasonably well. But he'll never sniff double digit sacks again.
3. Eric Moulds, WR, Buffalo Bills.
The numbers:
Last 7 seasons, Moulds averaged 78 catches, 1100 yards, and 6 TDs a season.
This season, Moulds has 54 catches, 511 yards, and 3 TDs.
Moulds has been one of the most consistently prolific receivers of the past decade, a guy with decent size, great speed, steady hands, and he's a pretty good blocker. He draws the opponent's #1 cover guy every week and still racks up receptions. At first glance it's also pretty simple to explain his decline this season: his quarterback, JP Losman, isn't ready to be an NFL QB just yet. And that perception would be incorrect. Never mind his suspension last week for conduct detrimental to the team. Moulds has been usurped on the depth chart by Lee Evans, and he's lost a little of his blazing speed. He's never been a guy comfortable working the middle of the field, and at 32 most wideouts find themselves going across the middle more than running deep outs and corners. Moulds clearly isn't a big enough guy to put aside his lack of chemistry with Losman. Something else to consider: over the past three seasons, Moulds has had more incomplete passes thrown his way than anyone except Laveranues Coles, and he catches a little over half the balls thrown his way. Good wideouts catch about 60%, elite wideouts catch upwards of 65%. Not all of that can be chalked up to JP Losman's wild arm.
The verdict: He'd make a decent #3 wideout for a team with an accurate strong-armed QB and a quality slot receiver. If he chooses to accept that role, which he's given zero indication he would. Maybe an unsigned summer will motivate him, and a solid team could squeeze 45 catches for 500 yards from him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he never gets more than 30 catches in a season again.
4. Peerless Price, WR, late of the Dallas Cowboys.
The numbers:
Last 5 seasons, Price averaged 62 catches, 864 yards, and 5 TDs a season.
This season, Price caught 6 balls for 96 yards before being released last week.
Savvy readers will note the relation with Price and Moulds on this list. Price thrived as the second banana to Moulds in Buffalo, then parlayed that into a fat contract in Atlanta as the Falcons' #1 wideout. The Falcons learned the lesson the Buccaneers learned a decade ago with Alvin Harper: just because a guy is a great #2 to a dynamic #1 wideout doesn't mean he'll answer your problems at #1. He's 29, not real big and not lightning fast. The Falcons and the Cowboys both tried to get him back into his role as #2 or even #3 wide receiver, and met with limited and zero success respectively. The Cowboys even tried it with his old Buffalo QB, Drew Bledose, with whom he put up a 94 catch, 1252 yard season. Some of that is bruised ego, some of that if Mike Vick's wild throwing ability, some of that is the fact he doesn't run great routes and gets easily muscled off the line. Still, a guy with that much success in a role doesn't usually fall off the map so quickly.
The verdict: Price is worth another chance for a team with a clear #1 wideout and a solid QB. He'll likely come rock-bottom priced, and he's young enough to still reinvent himself. If can swallow his pride and put the debacle of the past two seasons behind him with maturity and perspective, that is. If he can do that, he's fully capable of getting you 60 catches and 750 yards a season for at least 3 more years. If he still clings to the belief he's a #1 wideout, he'll be unemployable.
5. Joe Horn, WR, New Orleans Saints.
The numbers:
Last 5 seasons, Horn averaged 87 receptions, 1258 yards and 9 TDs a season.
This season Horn has 41 catches for 567 yards and 1 TD.
One of the best, and most unheralded, free agent signings in recent years, Joe Horn is arguably one of the top 5 wideouts of the 2000s. This season has been a lost season for both Horn and the vagabond Saints. The normally durable Horn missed 3 games with injury and has looked a half-step slower. The most telling stat: this season Horn has just one catch for 30 yards or more. He's not had less than 8 in any of his 5 seasons in New Orleans; last year he had 11. The Saints do have some decent complementary receivers, though they miss star RB Deuce McCalister terribly. A team that's behind by more than a touchdown in the first half in every game but 3 should put up some big passing numbers, but it hasn't happened for the Saints. Some of Horn's struggles can be blamed on QB Aaron Brooks, who clearly hasn't handled the year-long roadtrip well. The demoralizing Katrina factor obviously has enveloped the entire team, and as one of the team leaders Horn has been hardest hit. He's going to be 34 in January, and the Saints have the look of a team in need of an extreme makeover.
The verdict: Horn has shown he's skilled enough to overcome some of the effects of aging, and a return to normalcy will do wonders for both him and the Saints. I expect a strong 2006 from Joe Horn. Not his 2002-04 numbers, but there's no reason he can't catch 70 balls for 1000 yards the way Rod Smith has in his mid-30s.
