Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Around this time of year, when the contenders and pretenders are pretty much sorted, you're going to hear all these highly compensated talking head experts spend five good minutes breaking down why a team is where it is. I'm going to save you lots of time, freeing you to watch more Law & Order reruns or finally get started on your Christmas shopping (cough*Nirvana box set*cough). All you need to know about the difference between playoff team and "we're playing for next season" is who is under center.
This year more than any other year has illustrated the importance of having a good starting QB, and keeping him healthy. Take a quick look at the division leaders: Seattle, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Denver, Chicago, Carolina, the Giants and New England. Eight teams, eight starting QBs this season. Five of those eight starting QBs (Hasselbeck, P. Manning, Palmer, Plummer, E. Manning)should be in Hawaii the week after the Super Bowl. Those not Pro Bowl bound include a 3-time Super Bowl Champ and MVP of the millenium (Brady), a steady vet with Super Bowl experience and a dominating defense (Delhomme) and a smart rookie who doesn't make mistakes and allows the best defense in the past 20 years to win games (Orton). In addition, all those QBs except Orton were the starting QB for most of last season for their teams. Through 13 games those teams are all playoff locks, and other than perhaps San Diego, you'll find your final four NFL playoff combatants from that group.
Go down a step on the pecking order. The Chargers are the class of the remainders, the only team not listed above with any realistic chance to win more than one playoff game. They have used one QB, Drew Brees, who rates 5th in QB rating and 8th in passing yards, and he does this with one great TE and a corp of pedestrain wideouts. Having the best RB behind him certainly helps, as does the fact that Tomlinson is an excellent receiver. The Chargers are two fluke plays from being 10-2, and the emergence of Brees as a top-flight QB is a huge reason why they're so good. Either the Chargers or the Chiefs are certain to nail down one AFC Wild Card. The Chiefs have used one QB, Trent Green. He's a bit up and down, but he's a quality veteran starter who fits his offense well. The other two teams fighting for a Wild Card are Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. The Jaguars are in that position because of Byron Leftwich, and the only reason they're not a lock is because they had to make a QB change to unproven David Garrard. The Steelers find themselves on the outside looking up in no small part due to injuries to Ben Roethlisberger. When Big Ben was out, the Steelers offense ranged between "plodding" and "embarassing", and Ben has struggled to regain his stellar rookie form since coming back.
Over in the NFC things are a little different, but it still reinforces the imperative of having a strong, healthy #1 QB. Dallas, Atlanta, Minnesota and Tampa Bay are fighting for the two wild card spots. Techincally Washington is still alive, but they need a lot of help, so I'll leave them out. Dallas has solidified the QB position with Drew Bledsoe, the only Cowboy to take a snap this year. While he's made some dreadful throws and cannot outrun a common tree sloth, he's also a capable signal caller with a strong arm and a winning track record. His experience and chemistry with his wideouts makes Dallas the cream of this secondary crop of teams. Atlanta has Mike Vick, for better or worse. He's actually improved his passing, and his legs make him a unique weapon, though he's not the dominating force that millions of Madden video game junkies believe. He's missed one full game and parts of two others, though his backup Matt Schaub played well in his absence. Minnesota is surging in no small part due to the play of veteran backup QB Brad Johnson, who took over when inept starter Daunte Culpepper lost his knee. Johnson hasn't lost yet, and his calmness and skill set are a far better fit for the Vikings. The Viking D has markedly improved, and some of that is directly attributable to Johnson's dependability and efficiency. Tampa Bay is also working with their #2 QB, Chris Simms, though he began 2004 as their starter. Since starter Brian Griese went down after 6 games, Simms has produced almost the exact same numbers in an offensive system based on running and the QB not making mistakes. Even with Simms being a capable replacement, it's not a stretch to opine that the Bucs would be in the playoff lock category has Griese stayed upright.
Then there's the flip side of the coin. Take a look at the teams below .500, all 15 of them. Only 4 of them have had the same starting QB all season. Two of those teams, the Packers and the Saints, have suffered significant injuries to other key positions. They also have the two QBs, Brett Favre and Aaron Brooks, that lead the league in turnovers, the mark of poor QB play. Houston has young semi-bust David Carr, playing behind perhaps the worst offensive line this decade, not to mention a defense that gives up over 150 yards a game on the ground. The other team, Oakland, has pulled the plug on Kerry Collins for Marques Tuiasosopo. Every other losing team has started at least two QBs. The Jets have played 5 QBs, none of them a capable starter.
That math is pretty simple--if you have a good starting QB that stays healthy, you win. If you don't have a good starting QB, or can't keep the one you have in one piece, you miss the playoffs, with your loss total proportionate to how awful your defense is. You don't need DVOA or QB stat lines or overpaid former mediocre players to break it down for you. Winning in this year's NFL is really that simple. Which is why the team that drafts Matt Leinart instead of Reggie Bush will be in much better shape 3-4 years from now, but that's an article for another time.
