| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 27th February, 2009 - 4:29 pm
 So many topics, so little time! Free agency has begun, the draft evaluations are really heating up, and my email has never been busier -- much of it positive, a refreshing change. Thanks to all of you who take the time to read and email me with comments and questions. I will guarantee you a response if you put some thought into your email.
$.01-- Tampa Bay severed ties with pretty much everyone on the team over age 29, including Bucs legends Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn. That is a real sucker punch to the nose for Bucs fans, but it reflects the harsh reality of running a pro team in a trying economic environment. On the field, this team will be almost unrecognizable. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway, Cato June, Jermaine Phillips, Ike Hilliard, not to mention GM Bruce Allen and Coach Jon Gruden--all gone. Ronde Barber has to wonder if he’s next. All signs indicate they are not going to use much of their $60M+ in cap room either, though they did make a high-profile addition in Kellen Winslow. That’s not a risk I would take if entering a rebuild, and I give credit to the Browns for getting as much as they did (early reports are a 2nd rounder this year and a 2nd-5th next year) for an injury-ravaged coach-killer, albeit a very talented one.
$.02-- The biggest splash in the free agent pool came early, with Albert Haynesworth signing in Washington for 7 yrs/$100M. That deal sets all sorts on contractual records. I’m conflicted on this one; he will certainly help improve their weak pass rush and help the guys behind him make more big plays (the biggest weakness of the defense). But at that price, it seems they ignored so many flags. Flags like the fact he hasn’t played more that 13 games in a season since 2002. Flags like the fact he only played 62% of defensive snaps in the games he played over the last two seasons. Flags like his reputation for only playing for the money. Flags like the Redskins ignominious history with high-priced free agents. Can you say Sean Gilbert, Bruce Smith, Adam Archuleta, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Sanders? The message board chatter indicates the Skins nation is torn as well. We've seen this movie so many times in WAS, and it always turns into a Gawd-awful Ang Lee movie where everyone on screen cries and/or dies in excruciatingly boring fashion and everyone in the theater screams "REFUND!" halfway thru.
$.03-- I know I’m in the minority, but I applaud the Ravens for not overpaying to keep Ray Lewis. His leadership will be missed, but Ray is no longer the player he once was and the dropoff is only going to get steeper. Good teams know when to put the older horses out to pasture and try some new, younger thoroughbreds. It surprises me that Bart Scott left, and that loss will hurt on the field a lot more than losing Lewis. And caveat emptor to the team that shells out huge money trying to buy leadership with Ray Lewis. The Jets tried that with Ronnie Lott, the Panthers tried with Reggie White, the Cards tried with Emmitt Smith, and they all learned the hard way that past greatness and locker room prowess doesn’t make the move well.
$.04 --Shaun Rogers is making waves about wanting out of Cleveland, much to my chagrin. He feels slighted by new coach Eric Mangini, not noted for being a warm and fuzzy guy like Romeo Crennel was in Cleveland. My advice to Rogers, and I say this as perhaps his biggest fan: shut up and play. Yes, it stinks that the Browns fired your beloved PR rep. Yes, Mangini clearly lacks interpersonal communication training and isn’t going to blow smoke up your butt. But this is on you, Shaun. Prove to everyone that you are a bigger man and can handle some personal adversity for a change. Show up in great shape, stay focused for 16 games, and with Rogers’ talent he could be a Defensive MVP and a legit star. Keep up the “get me out of here” every time the smallest inconvenience emerges that has defined his career, and letting his discontent bleed onto his performance and preparation, and Rogers will quietly fade into oblivion.
Draft time...
$.05 --I received several emails regarding the quarterbacks in my latest mock draft, where I had Mark Sanchez going at #10 and Matt Stafford dropping to #20. The common theme of these was, “Surely you don’t believe that teams will let the QBs drop that far.” No, not really (and please stop calling me Shirley), but it’s pretty plausible if nobody makes any deals. I happen to think that one team will become overly infatuated with each guy and will make a deal to move up and take them, but I don’t think it will be before the #5 pick. And the second QB off the board will probably have to wait until at least the #16 pick, the pick before the QB-needy Jets select and where teams would have to manoeuvre if they wanted to assure themselves of Stafford or Sanchez. Quick tidbit for the next mock revision, which will come out next week after some of the free agency signing shake out: Pat White is really gaining momentum, much in the manner Joe Flacco did last year. I don’t see White in the first round at this point, but if the draft were today, his floor is the middle of the second round.
$.06 --A general observation that makes me very happy: it seems the NFL cognoscenti have figured out that freakish performances at the Combine need to have some basis on game film, else they are meaningless. A great example is Darius Heyward-Bey, the Maryland WR who tore up Lucas Oil Field in workouts. Several teams I spoke with were impressed but were quick to say that he never consistently displayed that speed or dedication during his college career. Same with Jared Cook, the freakishly athletic TE/WR hybrid from South Carolina. My initial impression is that the “workout wonders” aren’t rising as high as in past years, but also that the guys who didn’t meet expectations in workouts are falling a little further than in the past. It’s about time that performances in pads in the heat of combat outweighs looking good in shorts in a dome in February.
$.07 --Minnesota just spent their 4th round pick on Sage Rosenfels, sending the pick to Houston for their backup QB. Even if they bomb their other picks, you have to consider the Vikings draft winners for this move. They acquired an upgrade at QB, the one position holding them back, for a middle-round pick and the price of a contract extension. I wonder why this deal--this exact offer was thisclose to going down last year--took so long, and why the Texans would make the deal now. Let’s see, the one thing Houston has learned over the last two years is that Matt Schaub cannot stay healthy and that they need a quality backup. Rosenfels proved he’s adept at moving the offense and making plays, and his underwhelming career record is more a case of rotten matchup luck than his own fault. They gave that up for a 4th round pick now? That pick bears close scrutiny over the next two seasons, because if Schaub goes down again and the Texans flounder without him, whomever gets picked gets to play scapegoat.
$.08 --This is just a general response to several different emails, the basic theme of which is pretty much the same. A lot of people ask, “Why would my team pick Player X at that position when we already have Player Y who’s pretty good and we have bigger needs elsewhere.” I’ll give you two examples of where seemingly superfluous picks paid huge dividends: The Titans drafting Chris Johnson last year when they already had two recent high draft picks on the roster, and the Cowboys taking two RBs in the first four rounds last year. Both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice proved they are legit, and divergent, NFL talents that provide excellent depth at a position where you can never have enough depth. I’d also point to the Colts and Steelers, who have long done a very good job of drafting for what their needs will be 2-3 seasons ahead, not what they need at the moment. The Giants have done that very well under Jerry Reese, and when you see me allot them two TEs in the first 3 rounds, that’s the kind of thinking that shapes my thinking. Plus I consider Jared Cook at TE/WR hybrid who will play split end and not in-line.
$.09 --On the latest edition of RealGM’s Radio Show, Jeff and Andrew asked me who in pro sports I hated the most. My knee-jerk reaction was two guys from other sports (you’ll have to listen to find out who they are!), not football. But I’m a football guy at heart, and in the spirit of the question, my 3 least-favorite football players of all time:
-Joe Theismann. I grew up loathing the Redskins and he was the face of the franchise during my formative years. His vapid stint on MNF only reaffirmed my opinion.
-Terrell Owens. Does that really need explanation?
-Jeff Garcia. I’ve often said of Garcia that when things are going well, he’s a great teammate and an asset. But if the team plane were to crash on a remote island, Garcia is the first guy the team chooses to kill for food, even though he’s the skinniest. I hate how he handled himself in Cleveland, Detroit, and in his departure from Philly.
$.10 --Some people have asked how I can possibly watch so much football that I know in-depth reports on all these collegians. The truth is that I watch as much as I can, but it’s how I watch a game that helps me out. I’m fortunate to have access to lots of coaches tapes, which allow me to watch a game in about an hour, and when I watch I don’t go for entertainment value but rather I watch with a purpose. That purpose is to focus on 2-3 players in each viewing. I also rely on a bevy of scouting contacts and trusted sources both within the NFL and on some trusted websites where I know the guys know what they’re talking about. Likewise, I provide scouting minutiae on players they might not be as familiar with. If you are a major draftnik, you can tell my influence on some other sites and pick up on my influences from other places. One thing though: I never “borrow” info without doing at least a little legwork on my own, be it from a different team or another voice I trust and respect. I only wish everyone else had that sort of professional decorum. Sigh.
--Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
