| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 15th January, 2009 - 12:17 pm
 Last weekend was one of those that forecasters dread, one where the 30% chance of rain develops into an all-day gullywasher. After correctly picking just one of the 4 games (I got Pittsburgh right), I’m primed like Jim Cantore broadcasting surfside with the hurricane about to hit. I know it might get really ugly, but I’m standing strong in the face of nasty wind, pounding rain, and derogatory “I told you so” emails from Eagles' and Ravens' fans.
Before I get to the picks, some quick hits
-- New Chiefs' GM Scott Pioli certainly has garnered a great deal of hype for a very uneven draft record. While essentially running the Patriots' draft, he completely bombed the 2006 and 2007 drafts; the Pats have almost nothing to show for those drafts, and the 2008 class featured Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo and not one other player who played an actual snap all season. It’s not like Kansas City is stocked with Tom Brady, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel, and loads of useful veterans to cover up those glaring draft gaffes. The pressure is on Pioli to hit a home run on the first pitch, and he’s been more Richie Sexson than David Wright lately.
-- It’s a great time to be a great assistant coach with no head coaching experience. All the success of the rookie coaches and all the job openings have created a feeding frenzy for the young and inexperienced. But I’m a big believer that coaches learn a great deal in their first jobs and thrive in their second chance, like Belichick, Shanahan, and Dungy, among others. It bothers me that guys like Jim Fassel, Brian Billick, or Jim Haslett are getting next to zero opportunities at a second chance while owners blindly chase the assistant flavor of the season.
-- My wildly unorthodox solution to the overtime issue: sudden death but no kicking. Team A gets the ball at their own 20 and drives as far as they can. No punting or field goal attempts allowed, TD or bust. Each team gets 3 drives in this manner, and if the score remains tied, then it goes to a FG kicking contest. Start at 35 yards and go back 5 yards each attempt, and the defense gets to rush the kicker. The team that winds up with better field position at the end of the first section of overtime gets to choose which goal to kick.
-- I think we’re going to see more than usual big names change teams this offseason, more than in most seasons. Most of the league has caught up to the mindset of the Steelers and Colts that holding onto players a year (or two, or more) too long is a cardinal sin, that a younger, cheaper player on the rise is better than overpaying for a veteran beyond his peak.
-- I am very glad to see Rod Marinelli land on his feet in a very good situation for himself in Chicago. While I frequently criticized his performance as a head coach, Marinelli is a proven whiz as a defensive line coach and will help revitalize a Bears' defense that sorely needs a kick in the pants and professionalism that Marinelli demands.
-- You can’t go more than three commercials during any NFL game without seeing a Geico ad. That leads me to wonder: just how much business really exists in the auto insurance game, and at what point does media saturation become counter-productive. I’ve asked throngs of people lately if they use Geico or have ever called, and not one out of literally hundreds said that they have. I’m beginning to wonder if Geico is a shell company, and all the ads are a complex money laundering scheme...
-- Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford both made wise decisions in returning to school instead of opting for the NFL draft although for different reasons. Tebow has a very real chance to cement his legacy as the greatest college football player of all time, and that’s an opportunity that deserves to be fleshed out regardless of his iffy prospects in the NFL. Bradford is a much more conventional NFL QB prospect, but he does have some things he can work on and develop at Oklahoma next season that will help him become a better NFL player more quickly. Not to mention the Heisman and BCS title drama that their impending returns create for next autumn.
-- I happened across the new MLB channel high up in my cable lineup. Just so I have this straight: my cable company (Charter) immediately adds a pro sports channel to its expanded basic tier with no additional charge, a channel that is 33% owned by its biggest competitor. But it cannot allow me to pay $5 extra per month for the NFL Network, even on a premium tier. At what point do both the cable companies and the NFL realize just how asinine this is?!?
The Games
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: There is this common misconception that beating a team three times in one season is this freakish anomaly. But history says the Steelers have better than a 60% chance of pulling off that feat this season against the Ravens; 11 of the 18 times that a team has the opportunity to sweep three games, they’ve done so.
The margin between these two teams is razor thin, as the first two contests proved. I don’t think either offense will have much success, also borne out in the prior meetings. I believe the difference here lies in the relative health of the two teams. Pittsburgh came out of their one playoff game in pretty good shape. In fact, RB Willie Parker showed burst and giddyup we haven’t seen in months. Ben Roethlisberger appears to have no ill effects from his spinal concussion, and the offensive line looked surprisingly fresh. On the flip side, the Ravens enter this game after playing one of the most physically brutal games in recent memory. If the Titans-Ravens' game last week were a soccer game, the injury time would have lasted until Tuesday. And they played that game off a short week after vanquishing the Dolphins. Terrell Suggs and friends are putting on the requisite machismo about playing through the pain and injuries, but that is easier said than done, especially against a team as physical and nasty as the Steelers. It’s going to be freakishly cold at game time (current forecast is for 14 degrees with wind chill below zero), and that makes all those bruises and sprains hurt even worse.
I believe that seizing an early lead is paramount for the Ravens to have any chance. If they can notch an early touchdown and get a couple of strong defensive holds, Baltimore can feed off that and ride their dominant defense to a win. However, this Steelers' team has thrived all season on pulling out close games, often winning games, thanks to just one yard or one key play. That is Pittsburgh’s modus operandi, and that plays quite well in the playoffs. The Steelers earn their record 7th Super Bowl berth with a hard-fought 16-10 win over the Ravens.
Philadelphia at Arizona: Earlier this week I wrote about the masterful coaching work and game preparation by Ken Whisenhunt and the Cardinals. Arizona is going to need all of that and more to knock out the surging Eagles, who whipped them on Thanksgiving.
This game figures to be a lot closer than the Turkey Day slaughter. Arizona is playing with a confident swagger that not even Old Spice can top. Their defensive front is attacking gaps and exploiting their quickness and athleticism, and that figures to play just as well against the Eagles OL that is more brawny than agile. I have been consistently impressed with the Arizona pass coverage, and the emergence of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as a legit playmaker and shutdown corner. That gets somewhat mitigated by the lack of a true #1 WR for Philly, but the Cards have taken to the more complex coverage schemes like Jordan Rudess to Dream Theater. Their linebackers have the ability to harness Brian Westbrook as well as any other team, though Westbrook is the kind of back who can keep running into the wall time after time and suddenly bust thru for a huge touchdown.
This game will likely come down to which quarterback handles the pressure better, both from the defense and from the enormity of the moment. Kurt Warner is a former Super Bowl MVP who is still lethal indoors, and he trusts Larry Fitzgerald to go up and make an outstanding play if needed. Donovan McNabb frittered away a Super Bowl a few years back, and he lacks the true playmaker to bail him out or relieve the pressure. I’m not one of those McNabb critics that derides him for every little misstep, but I do trust Kurt Warner in a big game more than I trust McNabb. That might be a serious error on my part, as Warner (like Jake Delhomme) is prone to freakish clunkers, and I don’t foresee the Cardinals having as much success running the ball against Philly as they’ve had in their other two playoff games. But I am buying the redemption story in the desert, the continuation of the unprecedented success, the grizzled vet riding a last glorious wave. It’s happened so much in sports recently, from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Anaheim Ducks to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the long-suffering also-rans rising up and conquering their way to unexpected finals. Arizona keeps that metaphor rolling with a surprising 27-17 upset over the Eagles.
Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer and draft expert. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
