Knowshon Moreno, Donovan McNabb, Mike Shanahan and David Garrard enter pivotal seasons where they will be scrutinized if they do not perform at a high level.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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This shapes up as a very intriguing Wild-Card weekend. All four road teams are favored to win, which is more indicative of the weakness of the home teams than the power of the road warriors.
Some of that has to do with the seeding process, as the NFL stubbornly clings to the notion that a division champ with eight wins earned the right to host a wild card club with twelve wins. I do not support the radical change of taking just the six teams with the top records regardless of division, but I do buy into the argument that the team with the better record deserves the home game.
Atlanta at Arizona: When evaluating this matchup, one strange discrepancy really stands out. The Falcons' defense surrenders boatloads of yardage, ranking 24th in total yardage allowed but considerably stiffens in allowing points, ranking 11th in scoring defense. Conversely, the Cardinals do a decent job in yardage (19th) but give up a lot of points (28th).
What makes that even more striking is the schedules these teams played; Atlanta faced high-flying New Orleans and Carolina twice each while the Cards faced the offensively-challenged Rams and Seahawks a total of four times. Arizona ranked 28th in red zone defense, and that's bad news against an Atlanta team that had the fifth highest percentage of drives that wound up in the red zone. The Falcons fared pretty well in those red zone possessions even though they are a lot better at home (74% TD) than on the road (46% TD).
This game is in Arizona, and that really clouds the forecast. The Cardinals may have been terrible outside their own pathetic excuse of a division, but they earned a home game in January, thanks largely to their ability to keep racking up points. Teams built around high-octane passing attacks can catch playoff opponents off-guard, and the Cards have both starting Pro Bowl WR's and starting Pro Bowl QB Kurt Warner.
Warner's playoff experience carries a lot of weight, particularly in facing a Falcons' team that heavily relies on Jon Abraham and the pass rush to help out a secondary that protects its inexperienced CB's in some vanilla coverage packages. Arizona has proven they don't mind abandoning the run if the pass is working, often even if it isn't. How Atlanta's defense can handle that sort of pressure will go a long way in determining the outcome.
How well Matt Ryan can handle the pressure of leading his team on the road in what figures to be a frantic crowd will also go a long way in that regard. Nothing we've seen thus far indicates Ryan will have any trouble, but this is one of those situations where you just can't know ahead of time. If the Cardinals can strike early and get out to a 10-point lead, the Falcons are not built to come from behind, and they've got little chance in a shootout with the Cardinals. I have a strong feeling the Cards will come out blazing with excitement and intensity, and I'm not sure the Falcons will be able to match that. Arizona regained their mojo last week, and I expect that to be just enough. Cards 31, Falcons 20.
Philadelphia at Minnesota: Overlook the Vikings at your own peril, Eagles' fans. The Eagles bombarded the Cowboys to stick their foot in the door, but these Vikings are a different challenge. I've been quite impressed with the way Tarvaris Jackson has handled his return to the starting QB gig. He has shown much better field vision and patience, not to mention confidence in both himself and his receivers.
Now that Adrian Peterson appears over his fumbly yips, the Vikings have an offense that can churn out big plays via the run or the pass. The Eagles' defense brings tremendous pressure, but pressure defenses are vulnerable to big plays. What if Peterson breaks through the run blitz and gets in the open field with just Joeslio Hanson between him and the goal line? What happens when the decent Vikings' line picks up the pressure and Jackson gets time to launch one to Bernard Berrian with no safety help over the top? Or if Jackson breaks outside containment from Trent Cole (he surrenders it a lot) and sprints around the corner?
Don't get me wrong, I love Jim Johnson's defensive scheme and the talent is pretty good too. But I think the Vikings are well-suited to exploit the weaknesses inherent in what Philly does defensively. It won't happen often, but in the playoffs it's often just one or two big plays that decide close matchups. I cannot say the same for Philly's offense against the Minnesota defense, not with the same confidence, at all.
McNabb and Westbrook are certainly capable, but the Vikings' corners step up in run support better than just about anyone, and their LB's bait-and-switch in coverage very well. And, I don't expect Andy Reid to stick with pounding Correll Buckhalter up the gut the way he hammered the Cowboys. Better RB's behind better OL's have tried and failed to do that against the Vikings, who have missed Pat Williams a lot less than everyone thought they would. The wild card (no pun intended) is Desean Jackson, who has game-breaking ability and unlimited confidence. Andy Reid is creative enough to get him open into space, and the Vikings must account for him at all times.
Also tilting the scales towards the home team, in my mind, is how the Eagles have handled success. Just when you think they're rolling, they throw up a real clunker. It happened against Baltimore; it happened in the first Giants' game; it happened two weeks ago in Washington. Everyone starts getting bullish on them after they appear to finally cure what ails them, and then they remind everyone why they needed boatloads of help to make the playoffs instead of running away with the NFC East crown, which they certainly had the potential to accomplish. I think the same thing happens here. Minnesota survives and beats the Eagles, 24-22.
Baltimore at Miami: Both these teams finished in last place in 2007, and both have rookie head coaches that have far exceeded expectations. Miami is such a feel-good story, and that's part of the reason why I think their season is over. But here are three big reasons why I really like Baltimore in this one:
1. Defensive pressure and playmakers. Ed Reed & Co. have consistently shown the ability to make far more potent offenses than Miami's, which look terrible.
2. Payback. The Ravens have not forgotten the indignity of being the only victim of the 1-win Dolphins last season. Trust me, they remember, and they're not happy about it.
3. History. The Ravens got their season back on track in Miami in Week 7, a game where rookie QB Joe Flacco really progressed. Miami netted the highest yardage total the Ravens gave up all season (sort of mitigates point #1, eh?), and Baltimore still ran away with a solid victory that broke a 3-game losing streak.
Don't expect Miami's offense to put up 359 yards or surrender just one sack like the first meeting. Do expect a similar outcome. Baltimore 24, Miami 16.
Indianapolis at San Diego: This is a grudge match, as the Colts won in San Diego in late November. That game is far more relevant than the Chargers' playoff victory over Indy last season, as this Chargers' team is simply not of the same caliber. One of the biggest reasons for the late-season surge by the Chargers is vastly improved play by their secondary. The coverage gaffes have been minimized and the tackling has improved, and in many ways they can point back to that first Colts' game as the turning point. In that game, San Diego made a concerted effort to take away the downfield routes, forcing Peyton Manning to throw shorter routes and not attack deep.
The problem with that approach is that it mitigates any sort of pass rush, and Manning is of the mindset that it doesn't bother him to sheathe the machete and bleed you to death with the butter knife over and over again. Peyton has proven time and again he can be more patient than the defense, and he understands the demoralizing impact of converting three 3rd downs in a row against an increasingly fatigued defense.
If he has time to survey the field, he's going to eviscerate even the best defenses. These Chargers are no slouches on defense, but they rank 31st in pass defense for a reason. That forces the San Diego offense to try and outscore the opponent, a strategy that works much better against Denver and Kansas City than it does against Indianapolis and their superb pass-rushing defensive ends.
I like the Colts' secondary, especially with Bob Sanders patrolling the short middle and snuffing out the skinny posts and delayed releases that Philip Rivers loves to throw to Antonio Gates. With LaDainian Tomlinson apparently hindered yet again by a tweaked groin, it's going to fall on Philip Rivers to try and win the game by himself. One dimensional teams don't last long in January. San Diego made a fantastic frantic finish to take advantage of Denver's epic collapse, but the 4-8 record San Diego sported a month ago was not a fluke. Indy rolls on the road, 30-24.
