Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01- Everyone likes to talk about parity, but this season there is a clear strata of bottom feeders that have little chance of beating anyone outside their own grouping. The Packers, Ravens, Jets, 49ers and Texans are all in various stages of major disaster. It's hard to imagine any of those teams in their current states even being competitive in games against upper echelon teams like the Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Seahawks, Bucs, or Bengals. The Week 17 battle between Houston and San Francisco could very well be a matchup of two teams no better than 2-13. The Texans might not have led for even one second yet this season, but I'd still rate them ahead of the 49ers. This season's Niners are in the bottom 3 of the worst teams of the past 20 years. The other three bottom feeders are there in no small part due to injuries, but that doesn't change the fact they're not likely to win more than 2 or 3 more games a piece. The NFL loves the "any given Sunday" image, but this season it's not nearly as true as it has been in a long time.
$.02-I've been a Mike Vick fan and supporter, but he's losing me. Sure he's capable of doing things that almost nobody else can do. He's also incapable of doing things that most everyone else can do, like throwing the ball to an open WR. One play in the Jets game surmises his problem: Michael Jenkins has two steps on his man 18 yards downfield, streaking across the field with no safety over the top. Vick is uncomfortably standing in the pocket, rolls in Jenkins' direction, then fires a ball two yards short and a step behind stride of Jenkins, who injures his ankle trying to adjust to the bad throw. That's a pass that most NFL backups can make with that kind of protection, yet these are the very throws Vick continually misfires. Atlanta will never break through in a tough playoff game until Vick can reliably make those type of throws, because deep in the playoffs the defenses have the ability to slow down their potent running game.
$.03-Sunday's game at home against Chicago is the biggest game for the Lions in the post-Barry era. The Lions are only 3-3, but lost to a good Tampa Bay team on a horrible overrule and lost to a decent Carolina team on an iffy personal foul call and a badly missed defensive holding call. The defense is forcing turnovers (13 INTs and 9 Forced Fumbles) and getting to the QB without blitzing. With Jeff Garcia at QB, the healthy wide receivers showed renewed vigor and confidence and the line showed cohesion and spirit. The injuries are piling up, but if they can avenge their earlier loss the Lions clearly establish themselves as the top team in the weak NFC North. If Chicago wins, the Bears can literally run away with the division. Either way the NFC North champ will likely wind up with only 8 wins, with at least 5 of those within the division.
$.04-I'm no Bill Parcells fan but I do like his saying, "You are what you are". It's time that everyone on the Chargers bandwagon realizes the team is 3-4 and almost assuredly won't make the playoffs. In a conference where the #1 Wild Card might be 12-4 (Cincinnati) and 10-6 will likely wind up 3rd in their own division, this Chargers team is the latest folly of Marty Schottenheimer. Despite having the league's best player, LaDanian Tomlinson, and having the #2 scoring offense, they are victimized by having the coach with perhaps the worst luck/aptitude/karma in close games in NFL history. Think about it--when has a Schottenheimer team ever pulled out a key close game? The Chargers have tough games ahead at Washington, at Kansas City, at Indianapolis, and finish at home against Denver in a game which the Broncos might well be playing for their playoff lives. Sorry Chargers fans, you might have an explosive team that should be very good, but the reality is your season ends in December.
$.05-The most disappointing player in the league this year is Ravens S Ed Reed. It's almost unbelieveable how badly the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year has fallen off. Through 5 games, Reed has 19 tackles, no sacks, no turnovers, and one pass defended. He's currently nursing a sprained ankle, but even before he was hurt he was nowhere near the dominating presence of 2004. The swagger is gone from the vaunted Ravens defense, and Reed's steep decline in play is a big reason why teams are rushing for over 50 yards a game more than last season.
$.06- The Bills made a good decision in making the switch to Kelly Holcomb in hopes of salvaging their season. JP Losman showed almost no NFL competence at QB and you have to wonder what the Bills see that almost nobody else does. If he's still the long-term answer for the Bills, the Bills won't be playing any meaningful games in December for at least two more years. Holcomb is a quality backup QB with a good arm and is capable of one or two very strong games. But as Cleveland fans will quickly tell you, Holcomb is not a leader and not a full-time #1 QB. With their run defense plummeting from last season, Holcomb will have to be special every week and that's asking too much.
$.07-On the draft front, Reggie Bush is now widely considered the prime pick. I understand the infatuation with Bush and his electrifying combination of speed, power, and quickness. However, I would be very reluctant to draft a RB #1 overall when there are potentially 3 QBs that could star in the league for a decade--Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Brady Quinn. The two worst teams, San Francisco and Houston, both don't feel they need QBs and have gaping holes that can't be solved with an upgrade at RB. Look for teams desperate to improve right away that feel they're close to playoff caliber--Chicago, Miami, the Jets and the Cowboys come to mind--to deal up into the top 3 to ensure they get Bush, Leinart, or D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Speaking of Ferguson, I've watched Virginia quite a bit and while he's good, he's not on par with Orlando Pace, Robert Gallery, or Tony Boselli when they came out of college.
$.08-Lavar Arrington has lost his battles with Joe Gibbs, and because of that the Redskins are that much better of a team. Arrington has always been a physical freak who played an undisciplined style and didn't always bring his A game to practice. Gibbs benched him for those reasons, and now Arrington appears to have finally received the message. Reports from Redskins camp indicate Arrington is working harder, freelancing less, and making better reads. Their defense is already one of the best in the league without him, but adding someone with his physical tools and mean streak could push them into elite status and ensure a playoff spot.
$.09-Tampa Bay is quietly facing a major dilemna with Brian Griese out for the year. The trade with San Francisco to get Tim Rattay forces coach Jon Gruden to have a quick leash with unproven Chris Simms. There are many in the franchise who put a lot of faith and staked some reputation on Simms, but if he isn't ready to lead a playoff-caliber team right away he's as good as done in Tampa. In the short term the trade will likely pan out into a playoff spot this season, but long term the Bucs might lose a potential starting QB in whom they invested lots of time and a high draft pick because of it.
$.10-Monday Night Football is becoming almost unwatchable because of John Madden. Normally I listen to the radio broadcast while watching, and I thoroughly enjoy Marv Albert and Boomer Esiason. This week I had to listen to Madden and Al Michaels, and I cannot believe there's anyone left in America who buys into Madden's schtick anymore. For such a brilliant football mind he sure misses lots of obvious points, and he never points out anything my 10-year old nephew couldn't get on his own. It's time to park the Madden Cruiser for good.
