Knowshon Moreno, Donovan McNabb, Mike Shanahan and David Garrard enter pivotal seasons where they will be scrutinized if they do not perform at a high level.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 10-6. That makes the season forecast 116-75-1, if my math is correct.
Hey, I was a history major and a geography major -- the only math class I?ve taken since 10th grade is statistics. And that class was taught by a Vietnamese TA who spoke exactly 9 words of English and just pointed at stuff on the chalkboard with a long stick. That?s why I married an engineer and hire an accountant to do my taxes...
Lots of legal activity surrounding the NFL this week.
You just might have heard about Plaxico Burress, the idiotic Giants' wide receiver who shot himself in the leg at a club. His season, and perhaps his career, is over, and let that be a lesson to all you folks who consider pro athletes role models: Never stuff your loaded Glock into the waistband of baggy sweatpants!
Plaxico should consider himself lucky he shot his thigh and not a few inches higher and tighter.
The league also suspended several players for illegal use of OTC weight loss supplements. All the players vehemently deny wrongdoing and have sued the manufacturer for false labeling, but the NFL stood firm on the concept that these athletes should know exactly what they are doing to their bodies.
Personally, I believe that if the NFL is going to enforce contractual weight clauses, they need to give a little latitude in allowing players to achieve those clauses.
The NFL wants the best product possible on the field, so at this juncture of the season the players rest as much as possible. The players aren?t going to run 3 miles on the treadmill come November -- certainly not beefy Pat Williams or Charles Grant, two of the violators -- and the NFL doesn?t want them to either.
And the argument that the league is protecting these players is asinine. Is taking a powerful diuretic any worse for their bodies than getting hit by a 250-pound player running full speed and then landing on hard turf or getting cut blocked at the knees and then covered at the bottom of a 6-person pileup?
Wouldn?t a professional athlete be in better physical condition to handle such chemicals than a 350-pound trucker who smokes and puts salt on his fatback sandwiches and fried chicken, the primary target of such products?
If you live near an NFL training camp site, I have a long-term project for you. Go out to the local drug stores and supermarkets the night before veterans are due to report and try to buy an enema kit or a box of laxatives. I can guarantee you all the stores in a 20-mile radius will be sold out. That the NFL simultaneously wants bigger, faster, stronger athletes and also holds them to nitpicky weight standards with strong financial penalty is the sort of hypocrisy that fuels the labor strife and enmity that is sure to make the next CBA negotiations especially heated.
As a change of pace, I?m listing the games this week in chronological order. It?s just easier to track that way.
Thursday Game: Oakland (28) at San Diego (25):
Here?s the NFL Network?s worst nightmare -- a regional matchup between two lousy teams going nowhere. Like me or thousands of other fans deprived of the NFL Network because of both the network?s obstinacy and the cable companies? ridiculous pricing policies are really going to beg our Congressmen to help us watch this train wreck of a game. How bad is Oakland, you ask? They almost certainly will set an NFL record for fewest receiving yards by wide receivers in a 16-game season. Their top 3 wide receivers (Ashley Leile, Johnnie Lee Higgins, and Javon Walker -- who is on IR) have a combined 34 receptions for 563 yards and 4 TD's. That would rank them as the 59th most productive WR in the league. Not group of receivers but single wide receiver. Somewhere, Daryle Larmonica weeps. San Diego 26, Oakland 13.
Early Sunday Games: Minnesota (9) at Detroit (32): The very real possibility of a 0-16 season in Detroit gets all the more probable with this game. I?ve heard several people mention this as the best potential shot at a victory, but that severely underestimates just how well this Vikings' team is playing. Minnesota could win this one without the Williams Wall in the middle of their defense, so long as Adrian Peterson shows up. The 650 pounds of suspended Williams in the middle of the Minnesota defense gives me little cause for concern. This week, anyway. Vikings win 33-17.
Cleveland (22) at Tennessee (2): It?s being widely reported that Browns' coach Romeo Crennel needs a miracle to keep his job. And the injuries to Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson have presented Crennel with just such a shot at divine intervention, should he choose to try it. Josh Cribbs is the backup QB, but I would start him and essentially run the en vogue Wildcat formation (call it ?Flash? for his Kent State QB roots) all game. It?s not like Ken Dorsey is going to have any shot at beating the Titans' defense in a conventional offensive set--they will be hard-pressed to get 10 first downs. Desperate times call for desperate measures, but NFL coaches seldom attempt the unconventional, even when their days as an NFL coach are clearly numbered. Tennessee 24, Cleveland 10.
Houston (21) at Green Bay (18): Monday Night hangover alert! Props to the Texans for treating their loyal fans to a solid win in their MNF debut even though I?m not sure Jacksonville is yet aware they were also supposed to be playing in that game. The Houston players poured a great deal of emotion into that contest, and this is not a good enough team to carry that over into a road game in the snow on a short work week against a team like Green Bay, which can spread out the thin Texans secondary at will. Note to Al Harris: if you?re going to rely on clutching and holding to cover a guy, make sure you actually hold and clutch. This should be a good game for Andre Johnson and perhaps Steve Slaton but a better game for Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings. Packers 31, Texans 24.
Atlanta (11) at New Orleans (19): The Saints are the other team (besides the Vikings) hard hit by the Starcaps scandal suspensions. They lose their best pass rusher, Will Smith, and stalwart RB Deuce McAllister, which is exacerbated by the iffy status of Reggie Bush. But all hope is not lost for the Saints. The game is at home, which means a great deal to the Falcons, who have not beaten a winning team on the road this year. These Saints are typically a different animal in the friendly confines, with their yards per play and run defense both significantly better in the Superdome. They also have the ability to exploit the Falcons? primary weakness, using 4 and 5 WR sets and the steady hand of Drew Brees to throw all over the field against a thin, inexperienced Falcons' secondary. Atlanta is the better team, but I trust the home cooking and the desperation of the Saints will carry them to victory. New Orleans 30, Atlanta 28.
Jacksonville (26) at Chicago (20): I live close enough to Chicago that I get to listen to the sports talk radio from the Windy City, and I am completely amazed by the denial of reality by so many Bears' fans. At least half the callers to these shows live under the virulent delusion that the Bears' defense is an elite, dominating unit that strikes fear into the hearts of opponents. Wake up, people! If you were about to face this Bears' defense you?d expect your offense to cover the ?over? line by themselves, but because they prowl in Soldier Field with inflated name recognition, y?all are blinded from the reality that this defense is often awful. Those delusions will get worse this coming week because the Jaguars have clearly given up on the season and have no visible defense of their own. Chicago 34, Jacksonville 20.
Philadelphia (17) at New York Giants (1): Seasoned NFL prognosticators always look at payback games differently, even if the home team is also the team that won the first meeting. New York won earlier in Philadelphia, but the Eagles absolutely have to win this game to keep their barely-flickering playoff hopes alive. Philly blew out the Cards on Thanksgiving, with Donovan McNabb returning to his early-season sharpness. The Giants have spent the week embroiled in the Plaxico soap opera, and typically such off-field antics result in one of two outcomes: Either the team pulls together and lets out their collective angst on the opponent in a suffocating domination, or the weight of all the scrutiny and distraction causes the team to buckle and get pounded. I just don?t believe a Tom Coughlin-coached team with as much overall talent as these Giants will fall prey to the off-field distraction, but this is a game where they really could use Plaxico on the field and not in jail. Eagles 27, Giants 13 on a bad day for Eli Manning.
Cincinnati (30) at Indianapolis (7): Kudos to Bengals' safety Marvin White, who played almost all of last week?s humbling defeat with two torn knee ligaments and was often still the most effective Bengal defender. Cincy needs more of that heart and toughness although it almost certainly wouldn?t make much of a difference against a Colts' team quietly building positive momentum and playing better overall defense. Colts 36, Bengals 13.
Late Sunday Games: Miami (15) at Buffalo (24): The Dolphins are going to miss WR Greg Camarillo more than you would expect anyone to miss a wideout most fans have never heard of. It?s much the same way the Bills missed Josh Reed when he was out. Each guy fills an integral role in the offense that nobody else on the roster is capable of filling. But Buffalo will be real hard-pressed to take advantage, as their secondary battles injury woes and major time of possession issues by the largely punchless offense. The 49ers shut down the Bills last week running essentially the same defense the Dolphins run, only the Dolphins have a much better pass rush. The boo-birds are already chirping at Dick Jauron, who has to do a much better job of getting play calls in quicker and managing the clock. Miami keeps the Bills in a tailspin in a 17-10 win on what could be a real snowy field.
New England (12) at Seattle (29): Has there ever been a more underachieving unit than the Seattle defense? There are 5 legit Pro Bowl talents and some pretty strong role players on that defense, but this season they?re consistently been one of the worst in the NFL at pretty much every facet of defense. The Patriots have to be salivating at the prospect of facing such a porous group a week after Pittsburgh dominated them into submission. This is my survivor fantasy game pick of the week, and I?ve missed just once all year (Week 1, when I picked Indianapolis). New England 37, Seattle 17.
New York Jets (8) at San Francisco (23): Real dangerous game for the Jets, who have to travel across the country to play an improving, stabilizing 49ers team that has played with more focus and coherence since Mike Singletary took over. The bookmakers think so too; the current line is only 3.5 points, not nearly what you would expect for an 8-4 team playing a 4-8 team whose victims have one combined win in the last 5 weeks. Parity, phooey! The delineation between the haves and have-nots has never been more extreme in the NFL although the Niners almost have enough talent to jump from the kiddie pool to the deeper end. So long as the Jets' secondary doesn?t take this week off like they did last week, New York should cruise, but Favre is coming due for one of his patented late-season INT-fests. Take the Niners and the points, but the Jets will eke out a 23-21 win.
Kansas City (27) at Denver (14): The Broncos clinch the AFC West with a win, and that sure looks like a lock. But as Lee Corso would say, ?Not so fast my friend!? Denver is almost comically schizo this season, with very little rhyme or reason to their dramatic swings. And, the Chiefs are coming off a nice victory that doubles their season win total, with the first win coming Week 4...against these Broncos, who were undefeated at the time. I?d like to think that Shanahan & Co. have payback on their minds, but that would indicate that a completely irrational thing can be viewed rationally. It?s sort of like trying to anticipate in which direction the spilled beer will flow on a flat bar--it?s liable to do just about anything, but in all likelihood will pool into your lap and get you surly. Broncos win 30-20 in a very tentative pick.
Dallas (10) at Pittsburgh (3): I would have leaned towards the Steelers anyway, but this pick is based entirely on karma. Or more specifically, the negative cloud of karma that is about to rain on the Cowboys, thanks to Pacman Jones? reinstatement. I taught inner-city middle school for a time, and the overriding lesson I learned was that you cannot give second and third and fourth chances to people who don?t respect the fact that you gave them an honest chance in the first place. Bad things happen to those who continue to enable bad people, and the Cowboys are enabling a very bad Pacman instead of throwing away the trash. Steelers win 27-24, likely on a bizarre play or fluke turnover.
St. Louis (31) at Arizona (13): The Cardinals head back home to lick their wounds against a Rams' team that appears to have writhed out its final death gasp last week in a close loss to Miami. This game shouldn?t be close, but because it?s looking more and more like these Cardinals are the ?same old? Cards, the Rams are a good bet to cover the +13.5 spread. That little kiss o? death right there ensures the Cards win in a blowout, 41-10.
Washington (16) at Baltimore (6): Redskins fans are learning the hard way that it?s hard to watch a team that peaks in October and then sputters into December. It?s not nearly as bad as Buffalo or last year?s Lions, but it?s also not a fluke why they?ve fallen from playoff front-runner to also-ran. Baltimore is, perhaps, the last team a floundering 'Skins' offense with a banged-up Clinton Portis wants to see, with their physical defense and ability to get off the field: The Ravens lead the league in 1st down snap defense, and they also force the 2nd highest percentage of 3rd and long (more than 7 yards) situations. That stat is a great harbinger of success; the top 7 teams are Tennessee, followed by the Ravens, Buccaneers, Giants, Panthers, Steelers, and Vikings--all current playoff teams. That?s real bad news for the Redskins, who haven?t completed a pass more than 25 yards down the field since September. Their severely banged-up defense just isn?t good enough to compensate. Baltimore 19, Washington 13.
Tampa Bay (5) at Carolina (4): Last week marked the first Panthers' game all season I didn?t pick correctly. I?m 11-1 with them, and I?m proud to say I?m 10-2 in Tampa Bay Bucs' games, so I feel pretty in tune with the collective pulse here. This one feels like it will come down to which defense is able to get more pressure and get off the field better. The stats say that slightly favors Tampa Bay, who rank 17th in offensive 3rd down rate and 4th in defense, versus Carolina?s ratings of 26th and 3rd. But here?s where home field becomes an advantage: The Panthers are #1 in the league in offensive 3rd down conversions at home, and the Bucs' defense falls from 1st at home to 14th on the road. And, it works the other way too: Carolina?s home 3rd down defense rates 7th, while Tampa Bay?s offense falls to 24th. I also like how the Carolina back seven matches up with the Bucs' offense, provided Julius Peppers & Co. handle their business up front. Panthers 27, Bucs 24 in a game worth staying up to watch.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last Week: 4-1, netting me my 50th correct forecast of the season against just 17 losses. Keep looking for my Bowl predictions and the chance to match wits in a confidence contest!
Boston College 27, Virginia Tech 20. Sorry Hokie Nation, but I just don?t trust the offense to control the ball well enough to avenge the earlier loss to BC.
Ball State 39, Buffalo 27. Congrats to the Cardinals on a perfect season, but as much as it pains this MAC grad to admit, you don?t belong in the BCS with the big boys.
Oklahoma 47, Missouri 36. The Tigers' only chance is if Jeremy Maclin can light it up on the return game, and the Mizzou defense plays significantly better than it did against Kansas. I simply cannot bet on that happening.
Florida 33, Alabama 14. The Gators have a nasty way of exposing overrated, under-challenged opponents, and their defense keeps getting better all the time.
Appalachian State 44, Richmond 33. This game is akin to two #1 seeds in the NCAA men?s basketball tourney meeting in the second round, not the Final Four. I watched both teams lose to James Madison, but the Mountaineers have more firepower and that championship swagger the Spiders can?t match.
