| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 26th November, 2008 - 11:28 am
 Last Week: 11-5, pushing the season mark to 106-68-1. Thanks to all who pointed out that I counted the Bengals/Eagles tie as a loss.
Since Black Friday falls this week, my personal Top 5 football-related Christmas gifts, for the fanatics you love...
5. The gridiron chip and dip set, with the dip dish a football and the chip area a football field
4. A Fathead football helmet
3. Subscription to Pro Football Weekly
2. Replica jersey of a favorite player
1. Book a trip to Canton for the Hall of Fame game and an extended visit at the Hall.
Turkey Day Games
Tennessee (2) at Detroit (32): The disappointment that Tennessee comes to Ford Field with a loss, thus denying an 11-0 versus 0-11 game, upsets my stomach as much as my Aunt Joan’s sweet potato casserole. It might be the best thing that happened to the Titans, however, as now there is no way they look past the hapless Lions. Detroit managed to blow a 17-0 lead in less than 10 minutes, at home against a team whose QB (Jeff Garcia, having one of his patented Ford Field days) wouldn’t have started for most MAC teams with his performance. The one thing the Lions have consistently done well this year is special teams, and it was special teams that led to their demise on Sunday. The Lions have dropped 4 in a row on Thanksgiving, and this year makes 5. Tennessee 29, Detroit 9.
Seattle (27) at Dallas (11): Dallas made a couple of very shrewd X's and O's adjustments last week that portend well down the stretch. They lined up TO behind Jason Witten and ran a lot of rub routes, guaranteeing Owens got single man coverage with no safety help. Defensively, they attacked the “A” gap harder, which really impacted the sight lines and throwing lanes and also freed up the outside rush from Anthony Spencer, who actually notched a sack. Seattle will have time to watch the tape and make adjustments, but they will have to play near-perfect all day long to stop it. They haven’t shown me the ability to play near-perfect for more than about 5 plays per game all season. Take the over in a Dallas 37-17 blowout.
Arizona (10) at Philadelphia (21): All the McNabb histrionics of the past week raised a question in my mind: why is yanking a clearly ineffective QB such a taboo? McNabb obviously didn’t have his “A” game or even his “B” game, and it was hurting his team. Why not try and reward your defense (which forced 8 punts in Baltimore’s first 9 possessions) by searching for a spark with the backup? I understand the need to placate your franchise QB and the potentially fragile egos involved, but one of the prevailing axioms in the NFL today is that you need 2 capable QB's. The Eagles need to see what they have in Kevin Kolb, just as the Lions needed to see what Dan Orlovsky could do, and the Panthers needed to evaluate Matt Moore last year. It’s not like McNabb was going to lead a comeback the way he was playing, and the playoffs are gone. All that also makes this a very tough game to predict because it’s a giant mystery how the Eagles will respond at home, and how well the Cardinals can travel across the country after a humbling defeat. Of course, since this game is on NFL Network and most sports bars will be closed, you probably have no chance to see it anyways. On a hunch, Philly prevails at home 24-21.
Best of the Rest
Carolina (5) at Green Bay (19): This is sort of a reckoning game for the Panthers. They sit at 9-3 and primed for a playoff bye, but they are coming off a loss to Atlanta that caused a lot of questions about just how legit the Panthers are, both inside and outside the locker room. My spies inside the locker room tell me this team is focused and fired up, ready to shut up the doubters. But Green Bay is at home, desperate to stay afloat in the NFC North, and they have the firepower to make it happen. What also troubles me regarding the Panthers is that Jake Delhomme has not been crisp lately, and the Packers DBs are exceptional at turning errant throws into pick sixes. Green Bay stays in the picture and the questions surrounding the Panthers get a little more intense. Packers 30, Panthers 20.
Pittsburgh (3) at New England (6): I could break this game down in scores of ways, but it simply boils down to this: can the Steelers get enough pressure on Matt Cassel to bail out their ailing secondary against Randy Moss & Co.? I don’t expect Cassel to throw for 400 yards again, but his ability to run will hold Troy Polamalu just enough to slip Moss behind him. The Steelers will win some battles, but the war goes to the home team and the best general in the business, Bill Belichick. New England 24, Pittsburgh 16.
Denver (18) at New York Jets (4): The Jets have been real impressive the last two weeks, beating arguably the two other top AFC teams, including a whipping of the Titans. So the question becomes: can they beat a team that just got blown out by the lifeless Raiders, a team that beat the Jets earlier this season? I really like the way the Jets defense has been playing lately, controlling the line of scrimmage. Their secondary is also doing a very nice job in that grey area between the corners, linebackers, and safeties, thanks to strong communication and clearly defined responsibilities. Conversely, Denver does that about as poorly as any team in the league. I’ve been consistently way off base about the Broncos pretty much every week, but this week I feel real strong about a Jets 36-17 win.
New York Giants (1) at Washington (13): This time of year, games are often won on depth. The bumps and bruises, not to mention torn tendons and dislocated joints, really start to exact their toll as the weather turns colder. So in physical divisional games like this one, I strongly trend towards the team with better overall depth and in better overall shape. The Giants plug and play as well as any team in recent memory--look at what Domenik Hixon did last week. The Redskins are signing street free agents who might actually start on the DL. Clinton Portis has been playing well while dinged up, but the Giants D is a different animal from Seattle. Giants 27, Redskins 17.
Nice Warm Leftovers
Indianapolis (8) at Cleveland (24): When Brady Quinn got yanked from the Houston game for inept play, I couldn’t help but wonder, “Can we yank our coach too?” Houston embraced the Keep It Simple Stupid principles and completely dominated the Browns. The Colts are humming along with poise and confidence right now, but this has the potential for problems. The weather could be gnarly, and the Browns tend to play significantly better against good teams right after laying a giant egg. But the Colts ability to throw to all sorts of receivers all over the field will enable them to torch a Cleveland secondary that can’t cover and tackles even worse. For those in salary cap fantasy games, this is a great week to pick up both Joseph Addai and Reggie Wayne. It might also be a good week for the Indy defense, as Derek Anderson and his pathetic 49% completion percentage take over for the injured Quinn. Colts 33, Browns 20.
Atlanta (12) at San Diego (22): If you stayed up and watched the end of the Sunday Night game, you saw the official closing of the window of opportunity for this Chargers team. Revisionist historians bring up the “Chargers should have kept Michael Turner and let LT go” debate, but would San Diego fans honestly have accepted that last spring? That debate will swing into full force this week, as Turner brings the surprising Falcons to town with a very good chance to win. The Chargers are very good at keeping games close and then losing, but I’m not sure the Falcons will travel well for a game they expect to win against a still-dangerous opponent. San Diego in a mild surprise, 24-20.
Chicago (16) at Minnesota (14): Huge game that will set the table for the rest of the NFC North race. This one is all about line play and which team can relieve pressure on their running game by passing the ball effectively. Gus Frerotte is more hot and cold than Kyle Orton, but the Bears really struggle in coverage when they get no pass rush, and the Vikings line is built to handle the Bears DL. With the way the Bears have been tackling, or rather not tackling, Adrian Peterson should have a huge day in a Minnesota 26-17 win.
New Orleans (17) at Tampa Bay (9): Putting up 51 points against the Packers was impressive, but these Saints have been maddeningly inconsistent all season. In a game that got lost in the shuffle last Sunday, the Bucs were extremely impressive in coming from behind to demolish the Lions. When they fell behind 17-0, nobody was pointing fingers, nobody panicked, the game plan wasn’t thrown out the window. They pulled together, tightened up the loose ends, and vanquished an inferior opponent. I suspect this game might look much the same. Tampa Bay 33, New Orleans 28.
Cold Potatoes with No Gravy
Baltimore (7) at Cincinnati (29): How inept is the Bengals organization? Carson Palmer has an elbow that needs Tommy John surgery, but he is reluctant to go under the knife. Good organizations would put him on IR, order him to get fixed ASAP, and get started on rehab for next season. When you’re 1-9-1 there is no point in stringing this out or babying a QB who hasn’t really been as good as advertised. To see the other side, look no further than the Ravens, who begged a washed-up Steve McNair to retire, then had no problem starting rookie Joe Flacco when underwhelming vet Kyle Boller’s shoulder turned to gelatin, with a safety net of Troy Smith recovering from a near-fatal infection. If that were Cincinnati, Boller and Smith would be splitting reps and Flacco would be on the scout team. Some teams just know how to handle business and win, and some teams continually shoot themselves in the feet. Ravens stay strong in the playoff picture with a 24-6 road win.
San Francisco (26) at Buffalo (20): The 49ers haven’t beaten an AFC team with a superior record to them on the road in the Eastern Time Zone after Thanksgiving since Joe Montana was their QB. Got that from a pre-production tip from the good folks at CBS. That the networks actually employ someone who looks up minutiae like that is simultaneously sad and encouraging. I might have found my new dream job! Bills 31, 49ers 20.
Jacksonville (25) at Houston (23): Houston matches up very well with the reeling Jaguars, who can’t rush the passer and have issues tackling. The Texans won an ugly game over Cleveland last week, the kind of game that this team typically loses. That’s progress, and it should continue to progress. Ladies and gentlemen, the prior sentence is why English is so freaking hard to learn--the same word means two different things and gets pronounced differently based on usage. Houston 30, Jacksonville 17.
Miami (15) at St. Louis (31): Over the last 4 weeks the Rams have made the Lions look sharp, and the word I got from the locker room is that they are resigned to losing. The Dolphins are smarting after the Patriots asserted their will upon them, and even if Channing Crowder gets suspended they should roll here. Note to all the dreadlocked players: don’t get in fights, and if you do, make sure you don’t let the other guy near your hair. That will be important for any Dolphin facing Rams' thug Richie Incognito, a guy that would be an All Pro if surliness were the determining factor. Too bad he can’t block without holding, if he stays in front of his man at all. Dolphins 34, Rams 16.
The Least Appetizing Game of the Year
Kansas City (30) at Oakland (28): One of the more frustrating things about forecasting games is when you get something right, only at the wrong time. Such is my case with the Raiders/Broncos' tilts this season. Opening weekend I picked the Raiders to light up the Denver defense and steal a divisional win. Score: Denver 41-14, which I watched in the hospital on the night of my daughter’s birth. Last week I forecasted a strong Broncos' passing attack and OL issues for the Raiders and a big Denver win. Score: Oakland 31-10. Oakland won the first meeting in KC in Week 2 (another bad pick by me), so logic dictates that the Chiefs will return the favor here. Kansas City 27, Oakland 25, and I have no idea how.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games
Last Week: A perfect 5-0, which raises the season tally to 46-16. This week is the last week I forecast until Bowl season, and a 50-win season sure would be a nice reward for having 19 of my in-laws at my house for Thanksgiving.
Georgia Tech 27, Georgia 24
Florida 42, Florida State 20
Oklahoma 46, Oklahoma State 35
USC 52, Notre Dame 13
Cal Poly 26, Weber State 20
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
