Knowshon Moreno, Donovan McNabb, Mike Shanahan and David Garrard enter pivotal seasons where they will be scrutinized if they do not perform at a high level.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week?s Forecast: 10-6, pushing the overall season mark to 95-64.
The weather has turned frightful for much of the country, with the first kisses of winter blowing into the Midwest and East coast. One of the great football axioms is that cold weather, snow, and sloppy conditions favor teams with power running games, but I?ve always found that special teams plays a much greater role in game outcomes when the weather is bad. Quite often it only takes one wedge buster to slip, or one rogue snowflake to hinder the vision of the return man, and what is a routine play in September becomes a big play in cold, blustery November.
Of course, this week does feature several games in warm weather climates and in domes, which negates Old Man Winter. Home teams in domes or in games where the weather is above 70 degrees at kickoff also have an advantage when going against cold-weather, outdoor teams this time of season. When they?re not used to practicing in warm sunshine and no wind, the absence of the elements can throw teams into a funk.
This is also a special week in the Risdon home: Ohio State/Michigan week. Though my wife and I are both proud Ohio University Bobcats, our families are Capulets and Montagues in college football. My blood is scarlet; my wife is maize and blue thru and thru. Thankfully, since we?ve been living in ?This State Up North?, the Buckeyes have dominated, and this year most of the die-hard Wolverines are quietly hiding away. Team Sweater Vest should have their way with the mistake-prone Wolverines, who are within shouting distance of one of the worst statistical feats ever: most negative rushing plays (as a percentage of rushes) in a season. That stat surely won?t improve against Heyward, Freeman, Jenkins & Co. The Buckeyes had better take advantage because UM won?t be down for long, plus my 3-year old son Layne is highly susceptible to influence right now, and he likes to back a winner. I?ll don my Chris Spielman jersey with pride as I watch the Buckeyes cruise to a 34-10 win.
Cornucopia of Greatness game
NY Jets (4) at Tennessee (1): The history of Brett Favre in big games like this one is pretty cut and dry--he?s either awesome or awful, with very little middle ground. It is almost completely independent of the opponent, the supporting cast performances, or if the game is at home or on the road. The biggest negative variable is cold weather, and Nashville in mid-November is often a chilly, windy, wet place. When mentally loading this game into the great simulator in my head, I kept running into paradoxical quandaries; the Titans are due to lose, but are the Jets really an 8-3 team? New York?s defense excels at making plays happen, but the Titans are the best rope-a-dope offense of the past few seasons; the Jets were once called the Titans, but the Titans were once the Oilers, and you can?t fly a Jet without oil. Okay, that last one is more for the Princess Bride battle of wits (to the Death!), but that reminds me that those are the type of mental gymnastics that the Jets will practice. Jeff Fisher and the Titans will just worry about winning the game, and that?s why they will. Tennessee 21, New York Jets 17.
Bright and Sunny Games
NY Giants (2) at Arizona (6): We?ve got a lively debate going on the message board here regarding Kurt Warner?s Hall of Fame credentials. I argue that with 2 MVP's, a Super Bowl MVP, two of the top 8 QB seasons of all time, the highest completion percentage in NFL history (he quietly passed Chad Pennington this season), and the 2nd highest QB rating of all time should make him a no-brainer. Some very smart, respectable football minds see that he?s really only had 2 HOF-worthy seasons (conceding this is #3), the supporting casts he?s been blessed with, and his uncertain job status in the early 00?s and say no way. Not to go all promotional here on you, but it?s exceedingly rare to find well-presented, respectable arguments on sports message boards between people who understand the art of debate and persuasion without denigrating people who disagree with them. We?ve got that here, most of the time anyway. If you want a part of that, check out the General NFL board; we don?t bite. Icness says Warner builds his HOF case in a Cardinals' 27-24 win over the Giants.
New England (10) at Miami (9): The first meeting this season between these two rivals was perhaps the low point of Bill Belichick?s New England coaching career. It marked the debut of the Wildcat formation, exposing the Patriots' LB's for their lack of patience, and the Dolphins defense had their way with the Pats' line and QB Matt Cassel, who was making his first career start. Cassel has markedly improved at reading the defenses quicker and getting rid of the ball, and his accuracy and mobility keep getting better, as well. Miami has earned their 6-4 record, no question about it, but even though this game is in Miami, I really like the Patriots to serve a big heaping dish of revenge. Miami has been kind to New England lately, as the Pats have won 8 of the last 11 in Florida and have covered the spread in all but two of the last 16 meetings in Miami. They will this time too, in part because the Dolphins are 1.5 point favorites. New England 29, Miami 13.
Carolina (3) at Atlanta (16): For no real reason other than a very strong intuitive hunch, I think the Panthers are in for trouble in this one. I haven?t been wrong on them yet this year; I have correctly predicted every Carolina game thus far, so I?m going to trust the voices in my head. Not the one that tells me to burn things, but the football-related ones. Atlanta 19, Carolina 17.
Seasonably Mild Games
Indianapolis (8) at San Diego (23): When the schedule makers concocted this one, all bets were that this matchup would be the feature game of the weekend, if not the month. But the Colts have sputtered, and the Chargers are thisclose to implosion. Even though the game is in San Diego, the Colts hold two major matchup advantages in this contest. Foremost is their passing attack against the horribly underperforming Chargers' secondary, which rated among the league?s best last year but has struggled badly in coverage and with communication problems. Then there?s the inability of the Chargers' offense to sustain drives. The blueprint for beating the Colts is to horde the ball, limit Indy?s possessions, and keep your defense fresh. But San Diego ranks 30th in offensive snaps per game and 25th in time of possession, and those stats drop to 31st and 29th in second halves of games. I?m not discounting one last death gasp from the Chargers, but the Colts have survived 3 close games in a row, two of them against significantly better teams than San Diego. Colts 32, Bolts 27.
Green Bay (14) at New Orleans (19): The Monday nighter features the two teams that utilize 4 and 5 WR sets more than anyone else. That leads many to assume an impending shootout, but a seasoned gambler tipped me off with some great points as to why he?s laying heavy on the under. Because both teams use the same base sets frequently, the defenses are used to seeing it, and the coaches know how to defend it. Both teams have top-5 red zone defenses, which means more FG's and less TD's. Finally, neither team runs the ball with any sort of regularity, particularly when trailing. That means defenses don?t have to respect the run, and, therefore, can get more QB pressure and focus on pass defense. The over/under line opened at 50.5 and has gone up to 52 at most books, which means lots of money is on a scorefest. My gambling friend always swims against the tide in situations like that, on the premise that the books almost never lose money. He drives a shiny new BMW 700 series and has enough jewelry to rival Mr. T, so he knows of what he speaks. Who is going to win? Good question. I like the Saints at home and the Packers to suffer a bit of a letdown after the evisceration of rival Chicago last week. New Orleans 24, Green Bay 21.
Philadelphia (18) at Baltimore (11): You will find boatloads of ?experts? who will tell you the Eagles are still an outstanding team that cannot catch a break. I have officially jumped off that ship. Good teams find ways to win close games and handle pressure, and this Philadelphia team doesn?t do either very well. It doesn?t get easier with a trip down I-95 to play the Ravens, smarting from the whipping at the hands of the Giants. A mad Ravens' defense at home is not conducive to Philly success, certainly not if they play as uninspired as they have the past couple of weeks. Some of the mental forecast models believe the Eagles will find their sense of emergency and turn into the team most think they are, but to quoth the Raven, Nevermore. Baltimore 22, Philadelphia 17.
Cool and Windy Games
Cincinnati (27) at Pittsburgh (5): The Bengals are getting pretty adept at playing the classic ?spoiler? role. They?re just talented enough in spots to give good teams problems, but only if Cincy plays inspired ball or if the opponent takes them for granted. Ask the NFC East teams they?ve played. Pittsburgh has seen this Bengals' movie many times before, and the Steelers will be ready. That lost TD at the end of the Chargers' game has to be made up by Pittsburgh for tie-breaking purposes, and this game presents a great opportunity to fluff up the point differential. I just can?t see Ryan Fitzpatrick having success throwing the ball behind his OL (minus starters Levi Jones and Andrew Whitworth) up against Dick Lebeau?s defense, with James Harrison playing as well as any LB in the game right now. Pittsburgh gets at least one defensive score in a 26-10 home win.
Chicago (24) at St. Louis (28): Just what the doctor ordered for the reeling Bears, a game with the faltering Rams. Of course, if Tommie Harris continues to stand up straight from his stance, Devin Hester continues to look afraid of contact on both offense and in the return game, and the defense as a whole takes the worst pursuit angles this side of your local rec league flag football team, it?s not going to help the Bears. The Rams had major issues protecting whomever the QB might be (bet on Trent Green) even before Orlando Pace was lost with yet another injury. I?ve known Pace since his freshman year of HS, when he was the best OL in the state of Ohio (at my mother?s alma mater, Sandusky HS) and nearly full-grown, and he?s had a Hall of Fame career in part by combining tremendous power and nimble feet. Orlando, you?ve got neither anymore; nobody will blame you for calling it a career. St. Louis always seems to win against the Bears, no matter the records of the teams, but they will only win this one if Steven Jackson plays, and as of this forecast time he?s doubtful. That makes the Bears a very tentative 30-27 pick.
San Francisco (26) at Dallas (12): This is one of those dreaded ?trap? games for the Cowboys, an inferior opponent sandwiched between two playoff-caliber toughies. And the 49ers have improved to the point of competence the past couple of weeks, the last-second bungling in Arizona notwithstanding. But the Niners lack the defensive playmakers up front to slow down Marion Barber, and Tony Romo showed enough in his return last week that the defense can?t afford to sell out on stopping Barber. The San Fran offensive line has little chance to stop an improving Dallas pass rush, which has finally found someone (Jay Ratliff) besides Demarcus Ware who can put pressure on the QB. Cowboys 33, 49ers 20
Minnesota (17) at Jacksonville (20): I talked to a Vikings' staffer this week, and he told me the Vikings are ?desperate to the point of death? to pile up wins before the anticipated suspensions of Pat and Kevin Williams. Even if they win their appeal for the Starcaps mis-labeling, expect them to miss 2 games just so Commish Roger Goodell establishes precedent of authority--that?s what the Minnesota brass is expecting. That makes this game hyper-critical for Minnesota, locked in a 3-way tie in the NFC North. They are well-built to handle the uneven Jaguars, who use the run to set up the run offensively. Minnesota 20, Jacksonville 13.
Tampa Bay (7) at Detroit (32): Is this the week--maybe. Daunte Culpepper has fundamentally changed the attitude of the offense in Detroit, bringing in a fresh ?We?re not losers!? vibe that has caught on well. The youngsters on the Lions are bringing it, and Andre Fluellen looked like a natural fit at LDE. The chance is there that the home fans can inspire the Motor City Kitties, but it remains highly dependent on two factors: can Jeff Backus handle Gaines Adams well enough to give Culpepper time, and is Jeff Garcia going to have one of his days where you wonder how in the world he?s pulling an NFL paycheck? As a great Detroit coach, Chuck Daly, once opined, ?A pessimist is an optimist with experience?. My experience as a Lions' fan for nearly 30 years tells me that the Bucs are going to win. Tampa Bay 27, Detroit 20.
Lake Effect Blizzard Games
Buffalo (21) at Kansas City (31): The 2008 Bills are the new poster children for not getting too carried away over the first 4 games of the season. Since their flaming start they?ve crashed to a 1-5 mark, punctuated by poor OL play, an easy-to-block defensive front, and inconsistent play from their skill position players. Most notable from that list is QB Trent Edwards, who has regressed to the turnover-prone, confidence-lacking, off-speed armed guy I saw at Stanford for most of his college career. Kansas City has its own issues, and it appears the Chiefs' midseason power surge just might be out of juice. I?m betting the Chiefs squeeze the last volt out this week and pull off a 17-16 shocker over the reeling Bills, thanks to a big week by Dwayne Bowe.
Oakland (29) at Denver (15): Denver?s defense might be lousy, but Oakland?s offense hasn?t scored a touchdown in over 13 quarters. In the battle between the easily moved object and the easily resistible force, bet on the object. It?s like watching some dumb kid trying to punch over a tree; he might strip some bark and make some leaves fall off, but in the end the tree wins. Denver 27, Oakland 12.
Washington (13) at Seattle (30): This game is all about pass defense. Washington has a pretty good one, with Deangelo Hall adding even better depth to an already talent-laden secondary. Seattle?s pass defense has fallen off the face of the earth, with a sporadic pass rush, terrible gaffes in coverage, and poor safety play. Great week to use Santana Moss in your salary cap/weekly choice fantasy games. The fact the same is in Seattle troubles me a little, but these Redskins are the kind of balanced, veteran team that can win tough road games in hostile locales. Washington 30, Seattle 20.
Houston (25) at Cleveland (22): Brady Quinn is living up to the hefty price tag the Browns paid for him, and if Braylon Edwards caught more than 35% of the balls that hit him in the hands he?d look even better. If his index finger is good to go, he has a chance for a breakout game. But this week it will be Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison who make the Browns go, as the Texans' DL looks worse every week. The key to stopping Lewis is to get backfield penetration, but the Texans linemen have just 3 tackles for loss on run plays in their last 3 games. Browns' NT Shaun Rogers has 7 in the same period, and over the last month he?s been the defensive MVP of the league. Browns 34, Texans 24.
Other Drinking in the Dorm Room Games
Last week: 3-2, pushing the season record to 41-16
Oklahoma 40, Texas Tech 34
Penn State 30, Michigan State 20
Cincinnati 24, Pittsburgh 22
Utah 37, BYU 25
