Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
RealGM Search
There are so many topics that tickle my fancy this week, after such an exciting and eventful weekend of football.
$.01--Just when you thought it couldn?t get any worse in Detroit, Daunte Culpepper happens. Even though it wasn?t his rusty play that cost them in the humiliating mauling by the wobbly Jaguars, he sure as heck isn?t part of the solution. Drew Stanton was a 2nd round pick in 2007, and the Lions desperately need to see if he?s worth keeping. Stanton did not look out of place in his snaps Sunday, and his running and improv ability could be lethal if he develops chemistry with Calvin Johnson, the best WR in the NFC North already. When you stink as badly as the Lions, you have to try to find something to hang your hat on other than ?Hey, we might cover the 11-point spread this week!? I still believe that Marinelli?s men will steal one game this year, probably the Saints' game in Week 16.
$.02--Somewhat related to the first point, Kansas City has embraced their status as a rebuilding, youthful mess, and they have been handsomely rewarded by the trial-by-fire of several young players. Most notable is QB Tyler Thigpen, a guy I compared to Fran Tarkenton in my Chiefs' season preview to great consternation. His stat line for the last three weeks: 66-for-102 (64.7%) for 710 yards, 6 TD's and zero INT's, for a rating of 103.7. That ranks 3rd in that time period to Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan and includes a performance where he out-dueled his hero Brett Favre. Not bad for a guy who couldn?t make the QB-starved Vikings in 2007. No, they aren?t winning games, but Coach Herm Edwards is doing a great job getting these players experience, confidence, and chemistry. The Lions and Chiefs really aren?t all that different right now, but Kansas City is in much better position to get on the winning track than the clueless Lions, who lack any sort of long-term vision or plan. I laugh at any Chiefs' fan who wants Herm Edwards fired because what he?s accomplishing is far more important than the difference between 2-14 and 4-12. Gutsy move to try and reward his troops with a road win over the Chargers on Sunday even though the 2-point conversion failed (thanks in part to a downright mugging hold on Tony Gonzalez). Edwards showed his offense he believed in them and was played to win the game. Contrast that to Detroit, where Rod Marinelli has stocked his roster with castoffs from his old haunt and continues to play marginal veterans like Kalvin Pearson, Rudi Johnson, and Chuck Darby ahead of the guys (Kevin Smith, Andre Fluellen, Cliff Avril, Josh Bullocks) who will be part of any upcoming resurgence.
$.03--I did four radio spots in the last week, and even though the Cowboys had a bye this weekend, they were the focus of at least 33% of my on-air time, and none of my appearances were anywhere near Texas. I say that not so much as a complaint but rather a befuddling observation. Has any last-place team ever been so nationally captivating? Why do folks in Akron want to talk about Dallas with all the compelling stories surrounding the Browns and Steelers? I guess it?s a credit to Jerry Jones for building brand recognition and getting the national media to fall hook, line and sinker for his Cowboys, who are a much better soap opera than they are football team. For a league that thrives on the illusion of parity, the socialistic paradigm that all teams are of equal footing and importance, having one dominant franchise (in terms of popularity, certainly not on-field performance) threatens the very fabric of what has made the NFL so successful. It also could be a real hindrance in negotiating the next CBA, if Mr. Jones decides that what?s good for the Cowboys is more important than what?s good for the league.
$.04--On the NFC East front, you might as well forget about all the talk of three playoff teams from the division. The Giants are lead-pipe locks to qualify, but it?s possible they wind up being the only NFC East team in the big dance. Right now the NFC South has three teams that are 6-3 or better, and the NFC North has two very dangerous 5-4 teams capable of both going on simultaneous runs. The schedule really favors the South and North teams; when the 6-3 Redskins are playing the Ravens, Giants, and Eagles, the 6-3 Falcons are playing the defensively challenged Chargers, Saints, and Rams. In fact, every East team still has to play the Ravens, a brutally physical team with a quickly improving offense. Tampa Bay at 6-3 has remaining games with winless Detroit, San Diego, and putrid Oakland aside from divisional games. Bottom line--if the NFC East wants one Wild Card berth, let alone two, they will have to really earn it. Anyone who tries to tell you differently knows not what they speak.
$.05--It?s going to be a very interesting offseason for the Cardinals and Titans. Both have 2006 Top 10 draftee quarterbacks in Matt Leinart and Vince Young, both of whom are currently sitting on the bench behind veteran QB's in their mid-30s. Both teams are clearly better off playing those veterans, as Kurt Warner and Kerry Collins have positioned their teams as runaway division champs. Both Collins and Warner appear to have a lot of life left in their arms, and their experience and savvy have made all the difference in their successes. That is a league-wide trend for defensive-minded playoff-caliber teams, evidenced by the Vikings (Gus Frerotte), the Bucs (Jeff Garcia), and the Panthers (Jake Delhomme) who are all much better with a solid-but-unspectacular vet at the helm rather than a youngster with a steep learning curve. I can?t see either franchise just giving up on their young underachievers, not with so much invested in them both on and off the field. But with an underwhelming QB draft class and the likely free agent pool very shallow, some QB-needy team (Detroit? San Francisco?) just might be willing to make it worth their while to part ways with players who were considered faces of the franchise not even 12 months ago.
$.06--Now is about the time of year where disgruntled fan bases start calling for the heads of coaches. And it seems that the trend du jour is to placate those fans, right or not. So you?re likely to hear a lot of angry discussion about the futures of many coaches. All the success of the rookie coaches the past few years doesn?t help job security, either. The coaches I believe to be on the hot seat, and what I believe will happen to them:
Romeo Crennel, Cleveland--you could tangibly feel his job slip away when the Broncos made their comeback last Thursday. He almost certainly won?t be back.
Rod Marinelli, Detroit--every single NFL ?insider? I?ve talked to about Marinelli says almost the exact same thing: great guy, excellent DL coach, simply in over his head as head coach. Then again, that was the same book on Matt Millen, and he lasted for years in Detroit...
Norv Turner, San Diego--from what I know of the situation, if the Bolts make the playoffs Norv will have a good chance. Management is ready to give him some benefit for all the offseason injuries and the loss of Shawne Merriman, but only if he can guide them to the playoffs. Even if they miss, it will be hard to ignore what Norv has done for Philip Rivers. 50/50, he?s back.
Lovie Smith, Chicago--easily the worst in-game coach to ever win a playoff game; the only reason he isn?t gone already is the play of a QB he never wanted to start (Kyle Orton). From clock management issues to stale gameplanning to an inability to develop young talent (Dan Bazuin, Michael Okwo, Josh Beekman), Lovie?s seat should be much hotter than it apparently is. Bears' ownership will never pay him not to coach, so he?s safe this year, but the buzzards will be circling Soldier Field in 2009.
Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay--his built-up credit for the Super Bowl win is all but exhausted, and his penchant for QB roulette and ugly losses (see: the Dallas game) troubles Bucs' management more than you might think. So does his flippant flirtations with college jobs. I don?t think they?ll fire him, but I would not be surprised to see him elsewhere in 2009.
Tom Cable, Oakland--to quote Gob Bluth, ?Oh Come On!?
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati--another situation where ownership won?t pay him to not coach their team, perhaps the only reason he?s still employed now. For his sake, I hope he moves on whether it?s his choice or not. Free Marvin!
Wade Phillips, Dallas--it?s going to be really hard for him to keep his job by winning a playoff game when his team doesn?t make the playoffs. Dead man walking.
Brad Childress, Minnesota--he likely saved himself by pulling the plug, albeit belatedly, on Tarvaris Jackson and hitching his wagon to his defense and Adrian Peterson. One hundred percent he?s back if they win the NFC North; cut that in half if they miss the playoffs.
College football time! I?ve received a tremendous amount of feedback on the interview I did a couple weeks ago with an NFL scout. You people just cannot get enough NFL Draft stuff apparently, and that?s fine with me. The next $.03 tackle the three most popular questions I have received via emails, of which I?ve received nearly 800 (thanks to you all for reading and the almost unanimous kind words!).
$.07--What are my thoughts on the QB class in general, and Tim Tebow in particular? I really like Matt Stafford of Georgia should he declare, and I mostly buy the arguments on Sam Bradford (more) and Mark Sanchez (less) from those of you who support them. But I agree with the scout?s assertion that the senior class is largely barren although I like Graham Harrell of Texas Tech more every time I watch him. Stafford is the only QB I currently rate as a 1st round talent although that is subject to change once I get more opportunity to break down more film on the others I?ve mentioned.
Regarding Tebow, I believe he is a unique talent with tremendous physical attributes and unquestionable character. And that?s a real challenge for an NFL head coach, as those who have coached Mike Vick (ignore the character part) can tell you. It?s very difficult to develop a team around an unconventional player, just as it?s often coaching death to try and mold a square peg into a triangle offense (see Alex Smith or Vick). I believe that Tebow?s best chance is with a team that doesn?t need him now, where he can sit for 2-3 years and learn basic QB skills he lacks, like taking a snap from center or handing the ball off to someone running from behind him, not to mention making more than one read per snap or throwing with proper weight distribution and footwork. That would also give the team time to start tailoring some offensive sets to take advantage of Tebow?s running ability, cannon arm, and relentless positive optimism and creativity. I could see him being the next Steve Young in time (remember, he stunk for a few years to start) or the next Andre Ware.
$.08--Who are some other under-the-radar guys I?m high on? He?s not below many radar screens anymore, but I really like Connor Barwin, DE, Cincinnati. A converted TE from just last season and a former Bearcat hoopster, Barwin has exploded with potential as a pass-rushing end. His footwork and quickness from his other athletic experience has served him very well at DE, yet I would project him at best as a 3-4 OLB a la Kamerion Wimbley. He?s also a special teams standout, which will help him earn his roster spot keep while he further learns the nuances of playing defense. Some others who have caught my fancy: Robert Brewster, T, Ball State; Louie Delmas, S, Western Michigan; Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty; Sam Allen, T, Grand Valley State; George Hypolite, DT, Colorado; and John Phillips, TE, Virginia. Can you tell I?m a Midwestern guy with strong ties to the Mid-Atlantic?
$.09--Why are so many underclassmen included in the mock draft? The upcoming NFL labor negotiations are providing a major incentive for early declaration, as a reduced rookie wage scale and more incentive-based contracts are likely to become reality. At least that?s what the agents I talk to are selling, and they also tell me that pitch is real effective. The chance of a work stoppage, and thus lost income, weighs in on the upper-echelon prospects too. While nobody will (or can, at this point) openly announce their intentions right now, I would just say this: if a kid sees his name bantied about as a 4th round draft pick or better, assume he?s coming out early. It?s not always the correct decision, but it?s hard to fault a 21 year old for being blinded by money, prestige, and optimistic potential.
$.10--Along those lines, the next CBA represents a golden opportunity for the NFL to create their own developmental league. Now that NFL Europe is gone and with the likelihood of the preseason being shortened, there is very little opportunity for post-collegiate player development by NFL teams. Teams can?t afford to tank a season in the name of player development more than once a decade, and few coaches feel secure enough to spend too much time teaching the young bucks at the expense of the veteran herd that will win them games now. My very quick outline for the league: 16 teams in non-NFL markets (Las Vegas, Grand Rapids, Louisville, Springfield Mass, both Charlestons, Portland, Quad Cities, Salt Lake City, Memphis, Birmingham, plus Moneterey, Mexico City, and Cancun Mexico, and Vancouver and Toronto in Canada); each team is stocked by players from an AFC and an NFC team with the ability to sign and develop some street free agents on their own; games are played in late spring and early summer, after the draft; it also serves to develop coaches and referees. More on this later, but the NFL sorely needs something like this, and would colleges really be all that upset to lose their ?General Studies? majors or those who commit dumb crimes on the football team?
