Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 6-8, making the season record 75-54.
October was a chilly month for my picks, but I?m inspired by the record heat here in West Michigan in early November. Here comes a hot month!
There has been a flurry of quarterback news this week. Quick hits on some of the developments:
Daunte Culpepper signing in Detroit -- a desperate, stupid move by an organization that cannot get out of its own way. Is Drew Stanton really that terrible? Is Dan Orlovsky really the reason why this team isn?t winning? Is Jim Coletto?s offense really bland enough that a street free agent can pick it up in just 4 practices? Didn?t we fire Matt Millen already?
Aaron Rodgers signs an extension in Green Bay -- putting their money where their mouths have been, reinforcing their commitment to a promising young leader. Considering how intense the pressure has been on Rodgers to fill some gigantic shoes, he has earned it. Perhaps not as much as the Packers are paying, but a prudent investment in stability and a reward for Rodgers being the proverbial good soldier.
Brady Quinn takes over for Derek Anderson in Cleveland -- it?s not Anderson?s fault that Braylon Edwards cannot catch, that Donte Stallworth is the NFL?s Larry Hughes, that Kellen Winslow is too often a selfish knucklehead, that Romeo Crennel is overmatched as a head coach. But the completion percentage, the immobility, and the uninspiring demeanor are on Anderson. The Browns have to see what they have in Quinn, for whom they paid a hefty price, and the stage is perfect for Quinn; if he comes in and is awesome, the world is his oyster and everyone loves him. Unless he?s Brooks Bollinger-awful, nobody will fault him, but rather the coaching staff and underperforming malcontents surrounding him, and Quinn (hopefully) gets a clean slate and fresh supporting cast for 2009.
Rex Grossman takes over for the injured Kyle Orton in Chicago -- you might expect me to pile on sexy Rexy, but I?m going the other direction. Rex is a fighter and a scrapper, and he is acutely aware this is his last real shot to prove he belongs as an NFL quarterback. For the first time, the Bears offense is the strength of the team and is playing pretty well. He draws a brutal first test--the undefeated Titans--but I?m strangely optimistic on Rex to more than hold the fort for the next month.
Shaun Hill takes over for JT O?Sullivan, under new coach Mike Singletary, in San Francisco -- a crazed, inexperienced interim coach turns to a less mobile, less experienced, weaker-armed guy behind a terrible pass-blocking OL. Mike Martz has to wonder if Detroit was really all that bad...
Honeymoon in Aruba game of the week: NY Giants (2) at Philadelphia (6): Two reasons why I?m picking Philly. First is that Eli Manning hasn?t looked quite as sharp lately, and the Eagles have the defensive playmakers to make him pay if he?s not perfectly accurate. Second is that the Eagles desperately need to win this game, both to keep pace in the Wild Card race but also to prove their legitimacy and build momentum for themselves after beating up on some weaker opponents lately. Brian Westbrook looks pretty healthy, and that sure helps the Philly cause too. Do yourself a favor and watch this one, but do it at a place where you don?t have to listen to the audio feed spewing hyperbole on every play. Eagles 20, Giants 17.
Funtime in the Sunshine games: Indianapolis (13) at Pittsburgh (3): I threw dirt on the Colts prematurely; my apologies to my die-hard Colts fan neighbor, whose dogs are named Peyton and Marvin. Big Ben?s wonky arm make this one a tough call, because even though I like Byron Leftwich in his stead, his immobility and the removal of the run threat makes life a lot easier on the Indy defense. The Steelers defense continues to thrive thanks to great LB play, but an underrated performer thus far has been CB Deshea Townsend, perennial Steel City whipping boy. Don?t look now, but he has played very well over the last month. As much as I respect Manning, the Colts are not going to win on a cold, rainy day in Pittsburgh without a great run game, and I don?t see a banged-up Joseph Addai having much success. Steelers 24, Colts 20.
Tennessee (1) at Chicago (12): I?d like the Bears a lot more in this one if the Devin Hester of old could be found, but very quietly it appears the magic is gone. Chicago?s punt return average of 6.6 ypr ranks 28th and teams aren?t kicking away from Hester near as often as the sycophants would have you believe. The Bears do bring much better defensive cohesion and intensity at home, and at some point the Titans potent 1-2 RB punch will be slowed. It might as well be here, but the thought of Rex Grossman trying to hit timing routes with Albert Haynesworth in his face mortifies me almost as much as it does Rex. Like Josh Beekman has any chance to slow down Haynesworth with his timid technique...I?ll waffle on a prediction here; if the Bears fare better than -1 in the turnover battle, Chicago wins 24-14, but if the Titans keep the turnover battle +1 or better, they cruise 30-17.
Seasonably Pleasant Divisional matchups: Buffalo (19) at New England (10): This is where we find out just how ready the Bills are to ascend the AFC East ladder. They?ve dropped 2 in a row to the other AFC East rivals, and now they travel to New England, a team that has bullied their lunch money during their reign as kings of the playground. The Buffalo OL has not played well of late, and that?s a real issue against an improving Patriots defense, particularly rookie LBs Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton. The Bills two best defensive players, safety Donte Whitner and DE Aaron Schobel, will both be out. Too many dark clouds for the sun to shine on the suddenly reeling Bills, who haven?t won in New England in 6 years. New England 26, Buffalo 17.
Green Bay (15) at Minnesota (16): Two big factors that heavily influence the forecast map in this one. First is the Jared Allen injury, which takes the Vikings best impact defender off the field and will make life much easier for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Second is that the Packers DBs are very good at forcing turnovers, and only 4 regular QBs throw more INTs per attempt than Gus Frerotte. The Packers have won the last 5 games between these two teams, but the Vikings nearly won the first meeting with deposed Tarvaris Jackson at QB. The Vikings have a good chance by playing at home and also that the Packers struggle running the ball, but that might actually benefit the Packers and their 4 and 5 WR sets. That?s where the Jared Allen shoulder injury really comes into play, because the Packers 3rd and 4th WRs are significantly better than the Vikings nickel and dime backs. Green Bay 29, Minnesota 24.
New Orleans (20) at Atlanta (14): Fantasy geeks should be all over this matchup, because both pass defenses give up boatloads of yardage and big plays. I like Matt Ryan to Roddy White at home, and the Saints have really struggled on the road, giving up the 3rd worst road QB rating. New Orleans is coming off a bye after their London calling, but this clash looks solid for the confident, poised Falcons. The kicker shuffle in New Orleans hurts their chances. Atlanta 33, New Orleans 27.
Cold November Rain games: St. Louis (26) at NY Jets (11): This isn?t as big a mismatch as it might appear, but it?s also not as fraught with peril for the Jets. The Rams laid a huge egg last week, regressing to the team that wasn?t competitive in all of September. The Jets bring the same sort of 3-4 defensive front, though not near as aggressive as Arizona. The Jets also have a high-risk, high-reward secondary, capable of turning most pass plays into big plays for one team or the other. Come to think of it, that aptly describes Brett Favre too. I like the Jets but I?m troubled by the fact they?ve lost their last 3 at home to the Rams and have never covered the spread in their prior meetings in New York. Put your money on the Rams (currently 9 point dogs), but expect the Jets to somehow eke out a 30-24 win.
Seattle (28) at Miami (17): The East Coast woes for the West Coast teams continue, and somehow the Miami Dolphins move to 5-4 and stay in the thick of the AFC playoff race. The Seahawks remain my most bitter disappointment of the 2008 season. Good week for you weekly fantasy players to use TE Anthony Fasano, a week after Seattle gave up 133 yards to Philly?s backup TE, Brent Celek. Miami 28, Seattle 10.
San Francisco (30) at Arizona (7): The Monday night game appears to be a lousy one. Spare yourself from Tony Kornheiser coming up with 282 euphemisms for removal of pants, 6,000 flashbacks of Mike Singletary on Da Bears, and shots of a bewildered and frustrated Mike Martz after every 49ers offensive play. Arizona in a 32-13 yawner.
Kansas City (27) at San Diego (23): The sports books are begging you to pay attention to this otherwise blah game. The Chargers are 3-5 but favored by 16.5 points, the largest spread ever for a team with a losing record this late in the season. I don?t advocate gambling, but consider that the over/under for the game is 47, which means the bookies are essentially predicting that San Diego wins 31-14. I?ve seen nothing from the Chargers defense to indicate they can pull that off, not with the rapid improvement of Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen and much better run blocking from the Chiefs OL. Granted the Chiefs lost a game last week where they had a +3 turnover ratio and a 3 TD lead at one point, but I?m betting Herm Edwards coaches that into a valuable lesson and won?t let his young charges get down on themselves. The Chargers will win, but take the points and the over with KC. San Diego 34, Kansas City 24.
Baltimore (8) at Houston (24): It?s about time more people started recognizing just how good these Ravens really are. It?s also time for people to stop hyping the Texans as a potential playoff contender, and it?s far beyond time to stop touting Demeco Ryans as a game-changing force at linebacker. In 40 career games, Ryans has created 4 turnovers and has made 19 tackles for losses, with 5.5 sacks. By way of comparison, a guy who never gets any national press, Will Witherspoon of the Rams, plays the same position and has created 5 turnovers, has 10.5 sacks, twice the number of passes defended, and has 32 tackles for loss over the same time frame. Good luck finding anyone who would say that Witherspoon is anywhere close to the ?talent? that Demeco Ryans is, but the numbers belie the conception. I don?t mean to rip Ryans, who is a very solid, fundamentally sound player whom I would be quite happy to have on my team any day. But if you want to see dynamic linebacker play in this game, watch the Ravens? Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs. Baltimore 27, Houston 17.
On the Gulag Archipelago games: Carolina (4) at Oakland (31): JaMarcus Russell was the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. His numbers the last 4 games: 51 for 117 (43%, where 62% is the norm) for 621 yards (5.3 ypa, where 7.4 is the norm), with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. That?s bad, but it?s even worse when you consider that he faced 4 of the 6 worst secondaries in the league over that time span. It?s not all Russell?s fault, but at some point in the near future he?s going to have to show significantly more or else he?s venturing into Ryan Leaf/Rick Mirer territory. It?s not like Al Davis has any patience for underperformance--ask DeAngelo Hall, with Tommy Kelly and Mike Huff next in line. Carolina has a fantastic secondary, solid run defense and a decent pass rush, so don?t expect that progress to start here. Carolina runs to a 34-6 road victory.
Denver (21) at Cleveland (25): In reviewing my prior forecasts this season, I?ve come to a disturbing discovery: I?ve been correct on these two teams once apiece in 16 combined games. In short, I could write the most well-conceived, thoughtful, technically sound forecast here and you?d still be wise to pretty much ignore it. Browns win behind Jamal Lewis in the Thursday nighter that you probably can?t watch at home, 27-24.
Jacksonville (22) at Detroit (32): I can?t fathom the Jaguars losing to the last two winless teams on back to back weeks, but if their DL continues to be as awful as it has been lately, Jacksonville is in trouble here. I?ll go with the safe pick and take the Jaguars for a 20-16 win, but the Lions haven?t quit yet and could easily steal this one.
Bye Week: Dallas (18), Washington (5), Cincinnati (29), Tampa Bay (9)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last Week: 4-1, pushing the season record to 34-13.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The topsy-turvy Big 12 standings take yet another run thru the spin cycle, as this week it?s Texas Tech?s turn for letdown Saturday. For some reason when two high-flying offenses like these meet, a defensive slogfest often erupts. Take the under and enjoy a Oklahoma State 27-24 victory.
TCU at Utah: The winner is in real good shape to lock up an at-large BCS bowl berth. I like Utah at home thanks to kicker Louie Sakoda, perhaps the only placekicker who will get drafted next April. Utah survived a real test last week at New Mexico, a team TCU spanked in the opener. I get the sense of overconfidence from the Horned Frogs. Utah 30, TCU 27.
Alabama at LSU: If LSU had any sort of passing offense they?d steal this one, but they don?t and they won?t. Roll Tide! Bama 26, LSU 17.
Cincinnati at West Virginia: Upset special! Cincy further devalues the Big East?s national perception with a 34-33 shocker.
New Hampshire at Villanova: #7 vs. #8 in the FCS, though both teams are looking up at #1 James Madison in the CAA. I like Nova?s defense at home, though NHU QB RJ Toman is very accurate and runs just well enough to keep them honest. Villanova 20, New Hampshire 16.
