Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week: 7-7, moving the season forecast to 69-46.
Halloween is this Friday, and for those of us who attended Ohio University, it?s perhaps the most important holiday outside of Christmas. If aimlessly party-crashing in 40 degree weather with 50,000 other costumed drunk people sounds like your cup of tea, head to Athens, Ohio and partake in the festivities.
The top 5 Halloween costumes observed at Ohio University during my years (1990-96):
5. The Steve Perry fan club. A doppelganger for the Journey lead singer stood on a folding table in the middle of the street, with a boombox blaring "Don?t Stop Believing" and "Be Good to Yourself" as he lipsynched, while a handful of friends in early 80s garb danced wildly and sang along.
4. Superman in a neckbrace and wheelchair, being pushed around by a woman dressed like a crazy bag lady. A little insensitive, but very memorably hilarious.
3. Two guys who had an apartment with a balcony overlooking Court Street (the main strip) dressed as Statler and Waldorf from the Muppet Show, making crass, pun-laden jokes over a megaphone.
2. The walking banana split, featuring folks dressed as bananas, ice cream, strawberries, peanuts, a cherry and a spoon (all homemade costumes). They never broke formation all night despite the massive throngs.
1. The Fallopian swim team. About 12 guys dressed as sperms, who would just hang out together until someone blew a whistle. At that point, they all started to "swim" upstream through the crowd while chasing a girl in a giant egg costume. Two guys dressed as condom wrappers kept chasing them, apparently unrelated to the original gag but very well-received. That was my sophomore year (1991) and my friends still laugh at that one to this day.
What does all that have to do with football, you might ask? It?s just a subtle reminder that there is, in fact, more to life than football going on at this time of year. You can also incorporate your love of pigskin into some great costumes. Let me humbly suggest the following:
Put on a Cowboys cap backwards, wrap your thumb and don a goofy smile. Have your girlfriend put balloons in her chest, wear tight clothes, and sing poorly and you can be Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson.
Break out those retro Bears jerseys, find a great salt-and-pepper moustache and some sunglasses, and go as the Super Bowl shuffle Bears crew. Bonus points if you recruit your heftiest buddy to just wander around chanting "Da Berrz", a la George Wendt.
Bright and Sunny Games: Pittsburgh (3) at Washington (6): Lost amid the hub-bub over QB Jason Campbell not throwing any INTs in over 200 passes is the regression of the Skins defense in terms of their own ability to produce turnovers. Two years ago this unit struggled with the same issues--turnovers and sacks--and when the offense runs into a buzzsaw defense like the Steelers, those defensive deficiencies are very problematic. The Steelers are banged and bruised, but Washington has a full training room as well, and I like Pittsburgh?s depth better. This game features two of the worst punting units you?ll see this side of D-III college football, and that tilts towards the Redskins, who have a better return unit and a better 3rd down conversion rate. Breaking in a new long snapper is always a dicey proposition, and in a toss-up game like this one, there is no margin for error on FG snaps. Washington 16, Pittsburgh 14.
Dallas (12) at NY Giants (2): Dallas needs two things to happen to win this one: their OL has to play significantly better than they have been in pass protection to keep Brad Johnson (or, gulp, Brooks Bollinger) upright, and someone besides Demarcus Ware has to consistently pressure Eli Manning, else the Giants bevy of talent at WR will have a field day against the decimated, young Dallas secondary. Stranger things have happened--Vanilla Ice?s career comes to mind--but these Giants aren?t apt to self-destruct. New York 24, Dallas 13.
Green Bay (14) at Tennessee (1): Green Bay is coming off a much-needed bye week, and if their walking wounded return fresh and ready for action they have a very good chance to hand the Titans their first loss. Their defense forces turnovers and knows how to convert them into points, and when Aaron Rodgers & Co. spread the formation it negates the strengths of the Titans fearsome D. It?s hard to pick against an undefeated team at home against an opponent with exploitable flaws (poor run blocking, inability to cover TEs and RBs, spotty DL play), but the clouds are forming over Nashville. Green Bay in an upset, 27-24, perhaps on a last-second FG.
Baltimore (8) at Cleveland (18): Last week?s win over Jacksonville might not have looked pretty, but in my eyes it?s a great sign for the Browns. They won a game with their defense against a quality, balanced opponent, and the offense proved capable of exploiting mistakes. That?s the Browns team many expected to see. My fellow Lions fans have seen Shaun Rogers go on dominant streaks like this before, and the big man is feeling it right now--witness his latest blocked FG and the fact he spent the entire game in the Jacksonville backfield. The Ravens D will force Derek Anderson to beat them, but unless he goes INT happy, I don?t see the Ravens outscoring the Browns in Cleveland, where this rivalry means more than any other game. Cleveland 20, Baltimore 15.
Seasonably Pleasant Games: NY Jets (17) at Buffalo (13): This is one of those games where I?m going to trust what I see out the window instead of what the computer models tell me is going on outside. With all of Favre?s INT issues, the porous Jets secondary, and the Bills being at home to circle the wagons, the forecast models love the Bills here. But I have this nagging suspicion that Favre will have a big rebound game, the Bills will struggle more than they think without WR Josh Reed, and Leon Washington is in a rare groove as the Jets return man. New York Jets 27, Buffalo 23.
New England (7) at Indianapolis (20): During my weekly spot on the Papa Joe Chevalier show (Mondays 6:25 ET, papajoetalk.com for those of you not in Las Vegas), we?ve been lamenting that it?s time for all the preconceived notions most held about the Chargers need to be ignored. After the Monday night game, I feel the same about Indianapolis; this is simply not the Colts team most everyone anticipated, and it?s time to look at them differently. Between the defensive injuries, the unstable OL, the penalties, the loss of Joseph Addai, and Peyton Manning?s apparent loss of synchronicity with his wideouts, this team belongs at 3-4 and tied for last in the AFC South. These Pats are also obviously not the same without Tom Brady, but their defense is playing better and the newfound commitment to running the ball spells major trouble for the Colts, even if Bob Sanders returns. Patriots 31, Colts 24.
Miami (23) at Denver (15): It will be real interesting to see how the Broncos emerge from their bye week. They hit that bye week playing some pretty lousy football, and will be without All Pro CB Champ Bailey for awhile. Ted Ginn Jr. finally had his breakout game for the Dolphins last week, and no Bailey means the efficient Miami passing game will find a much easier hill to sled. Knowing Mike Shanahan, the Broncos will sport some creative ways to attack the vulnerable Miami secondary, and Jay Cutler?s finger shouldn?t be a problem. Getting TE Tony Scheffler and WR Eddie Royal back healthy will help. If Denver wasn?t coming off a bye I?d be real tempted to pick the Dolphins here, but in the cold mountains against a rested team and a mastermind coach, I just don?t see it. Denver 25, Miami 20.
Cold, Windy Games: Tampa Bay (9) at Kansas City (29): Congratulations to Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen, who outplayed his hero Brett Favre last week, only to see the wretched Kansas City defense surrender the game to the New York Bretts. Cherish that outing, young man, because a repeat performance against the Bucs defense is highly unlikely. Tampa Bay 27, Kansas City 15.
Arizona (10) at St. Louis (26): Real dangerous game for the Cardinals, who could essentially wrap up the putrid NFC West with a win here. This is the kind of game Arizona has constantly struggled to win and that?s why nobody really takes them seriously as a contender. The Rams defense has vastly improved under Jim Haslett, with #2 overall draftee Chris Long learning how to play off the inside guys and the corners playing better. Since Arizona has major issues running the ball, the resurgent Rams have a real good shot. What gives me hope for the Cardinals is their pass rush making life miserable for the statue of Marc Bulger that plays QB behind a wretched pass blocking unit from C-RT. Honestly, this is the toughest game to pick this weekend. I?ll take a flier on the Rams at home. St. Louis 33, Arizona 30.
Philadelphia (5) at Seattle (27): The Eagles are finally getting healthier after their bye week, and that is a big problem for the injury-ravaged Seahawks. Seattle is renowned for the 12th man, but unless he?s playing both cornerback and wide receiver for the Seahawks, that 12th man isn?t going to make much of a difference. Philly rolls 31-16.
Houston (24) at Minnesota (22): Congrats to the Texans for the first 3 game winning streak in team history. Now for the rub--all were home games, with two of the three against the remaining winless teams. They hit the road north to face a desperate Vikings team coming off a bye week, a team that knows they are likely to lose both Pat and Kevin Williams to league suspension after this week. The Texans have to help rookie LT Duane Brown against Jared Allen, or else the superb Andre Johnson will be relegated to his old, David Carr-era function as a possession receiver. That?s not likely to beat the Vikings in Minnesota, certainly not unless Houston?s inconsistent run defense considerably stiffens. My forecast models like Bernard Berrian to have a big game. Minnesota 20, Houston 17.
Lake Effect Blizzard Games: Detroit (31) at Chicago (11): Since a Detroit beat writer continually steals my material (nice comb-over Brian!), I?ll ask Coach Marinelli this follow up question. Last week in this spot I opined that offenses have figured out the Tampa 2 defense you love. You snapped back when asked about this, saying it?s a fool-proof, undefeatable defense when the players execute it to perfection. The question: Do you really want to depend on perfect execution on every single play by 11 different guys in order to succeed? Players make mistakes, offenses help set up those mistakes and know how to exploit them, and the players you?ve got make more mistakes than those on pretty much every other team. Sorry Coach, what you?re selling isn?t being bought by anyone any more. Chicago runs the same basic defense and does it better, most of the time anyways. Beware the upset if the Lions? improving pass defense (largely by the infusion of rookie pass rusher Cliff Avril) can force some turnovers. I can see it happening but no way would I stake any sort of money or reputation upon it; two years ago I went to Soldier Field and watched Chicago blow out the Lions with almost no effort, and it?s hard to erase those lingering visions. Chicago 20, Detroit 13.
Jacksonville (19) at Cincinnati (32): Mark my words: the Bengals will win a game this season. It?s akin to a hurricane hitting Puerto Rico every year. Meteorologists never know exactly which hurricane or when it will strike, but you can bet your bottom dollar it will happen. Hurricanes hit the Jacksonville area from time to time, but most just slam into south Florida or skirt north along the coast. The Jaguars dodge this one too, thanks to their defense and ball control. Jacksonville 26, Cincinnati 10.
Atlanta (21) at Oakland (28): The sensible choice here is Atlanta, which has found stability and progress in a surprisingly strong start. But the Raiders play better at home and Jamarcus Russell is starting to look more like a legit starting QB, a real problem for the Falcons dicey secondary. But with the mounting Oakland injuries and the newfound aggressiveness of the Falcons defense last week, it?s hard to find any reason why not to pick Atlanta. But sometimes nonsense is the best sense when picking football games. Oakland 23, Atlanta 21.
Bye Week: New Orleans (16), San Francisco (30), San Diego (25), Carolina (4)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last Week: 4-1, moving the season tally to 30-12.
Florida 34, Georgia 29--too much Percy Harvin for the Bulldogs. Draftniks will want to watch Gators LB Brandon Spikes, who could be a top 10 pick.
Texas Tech 41, Texas 36--the run of bad luck for #1 teams continues
Cincinnati 29, South Florida 28--the Bearcats secondary does just enough to hold back Matt Groethe & Co.
Notre Dame 37, Pittsburgh 24--and prepare for the Irish sycophants to start talking BCS Bowl.
Appalachian State 24, Wofford 17--two top 5 I-AA teams meet in Boone, NC. I like App State?s run defense to slow down the Terriers mighty ground attack.
