Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last Week?s forecast: 9-5, including correct forecasts of upsets by Baltimore and Oakland. That moves the season tally to 62-39.
Some readers have questioned my methodology for the power rankings. In some semblance of the order, I consider the following factors: record over the last 4 weeks, relative strength and impression over the last 4 weeks (a highly subjective process), season record, strength of schedule, point differential, consistency of performance, and injury impact. And then there?s my totally subjective opinions of the coaches, spiffiness of uniforms, and how much negative email traffic I get from fans of a team. Keep ?em coming, Jets fans!
This should be a great football weather weekend. No snowstorms, no massive cold fronts that spawn strong winds and torrential rains, seasonably average temperatures, it all shapes up for another beautiful weekend of football. Those of you reading in the Grand Rapids area, come join me at Buffalo Wild Wings on 44th Street for the early slate of games on Sunday. I?ll be the tall white guy wearing a Cleveland Cavaliers hat. Correctly identify my all-time favorite Cavalier (hint: it?s not LeBron) and I just might buy you a beverage!
Bright and Sunny games: New York Giants (3) at Pittsburgh (2): I could break this game down in about 20 different ways, but here?s the one deciding factor in my forecast: how well Eli Manning handles the Blitzburgh defense. Eli has been relatively flat lately, but the Steelers will be minus CB Bryant McFadden and perhaps gifted safety Troy Polamalu. I?m leaning towards the Giants, but my wife is on a real hot streak lately (she called the Packers, Pats and Bills last week, the Falcons over the Bears and the Browns over the Giants two weeks ago) and she really likes the Steelers at home. I?m not going to argue with a woman strong enough to deliver two wonderful children in under 3 total hours of labor, plus the fact she put the parental lock on the Big Ten Network and I don?t know the password, and I really need to watch the rerun of the Penn State/Michigan game. Pittsburgh 28, New York Giants 27.
Indianapolis (11) at Tennessee (1): If you would have told me that hefty Titans RB Lendale White could pull off an 80-yard TD scamper without being touched, I?d have laughed in your face. But somehow that happened last week, and the Colts run defense can?t stop anyone. Very quietly, Peyton Manning is having a poor season, and the Titans combination of strong coverage and consistent pass rush isn?t going to provide much room for improvement. The Titans are no threat to run the table, but this table sets up nicely for them to pack away the AFC South by Halloween. Titans 33, Colts 28.
Arizona (8) at Carolina (5): The Panthers feature the most underrated positional group in the NFL with their LB corps. Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Na?il Diggs have been nothing short of outstanding in pass coverage, and they?ve been solid against the run most of the time as well. The Panthers also feature 3 very good CBs and safety Chris Harris, a godsend since his arrival from Chicago. Both these teams are prone to throwing out absolute clunker efforts despite being legit playoff contenders. Too many forecast models indicate that Cards QB Kurt Warner is due for one of those days, in part because the Panthers D feasts upon teams that can?t run the ball on 1st down. Arizona averages just 3.1 yards per first down carry, 29th in the league. Carolina 24, Arizona 20.
Seasonably Mild games:
Atlanta (15) at Philadelphia (9): Real good barometer for the upstart Falcons, as they come off a bye and face the desperate Eagles, who have outplayed every opponent but find themselves in last place in the NFC East at 3-3. The Falcons have survived despite playing a very inexperienced, underwhelming secondary that will be tested by Donovan McNabb and his merry band of wideouts. I?m intrigued by how well Matt Ryan handles the Eagles defense and how well the Eagles underachieving secondary handles Roddy White, who has emerged as a legit #1 WR and big-play threat. The Falcons made one of the best off-season moves by bringing in K Jason Elam, who is 8-8 in long FGs (longer than 40 yards). Contrast that with the ongoing struggles of Eagles kicker David Akers, who has missed his last 10 FGs longer than 42 yards. I don?t foresee this coming down to a FG battle, however. This is a game that should encourage you to visit a local watering hole to watch if it?s an out-of-market game. Philly jumps back into the crowded NFC playoff mix with a 34-20 victory.
Tampa Bay (4) at Dallas (17): Even with a fully healthy team, the Cowboys were going to struggle against the Bucs. Tampa just matches up real well against the Dallas weaknesses, with their ability to bring pressure, a very talented, playmaking secondary, and a versatile dual-threat offense that includes the master of the improvisational in QB Jeff Garcia. Team Turmoil could be without its entire starting secondary once again, and aside from DeMarcus Ware racking up sacks at a ridiculous pace, their LBs have been awful. Brad Johnson simply doesn?t have the arm to make the Bucs pay for their newfound proclivity for tighter press coverage and blitzing. So long as Garcia doesn?t have flashbacks of his stints in Detroit or Cleveland, the Bucs should cruise. Tampa Bay 27, Dallas 17.
San Diego (19) vs. New Orleans (20) in London, England: The loser of the ?Disappointment? Bowl in London is likely eliminated from the playoffs just halfway through the season, as the climb up from 3-5 is just too much for such flawed teams. New Orleans struggles with self-inflicted problems, while the Chargers are simply not near as good as anyone, most notably themselves, thought they were going to be. The Chargers are establishing a pattern of playing lights-out football every third week, and the last two weeks they?ve been short on power. That and the loss of Reggie Bush tilt the scales enough in favor of San Diego. Chargers even their ledger and stay alive in the AFC playoff race with a 36-23 victory on foreign soil.
Passing Cold Front games: Cleveland (23) at Jacksonville (16): In the last two weeks the Browns embattled defense has given up just 14 points each week and has more than held their own. The offense, on the other hand, has wildly fluctuated from the thrashing of the Giants to Derek Anderson?s 14-for-37 outing last week against Washington. With a season completion percentage below 50% and no Kellen Winslow (suspended for exposing the shroud of mystery around his ?illness?), that Giants game sure looks like the fluke. At some point Romeo Crennel has to unhitch his wagon from that obviously lame horse and put in Brady Quinn. Could he really be any worse? The Jaguars are getting healthier on the OL and shouldn?t miss suspended WR Matt Jones, not when their RBs should be able to run for 200+ combined yards. Jaguars 24, Browns 10.
St. Louis (26) at New England (13): Don?t look now, but the Rams surprise selection of Donnie Avery as the first WR taken in the last draft is starting to look pretty darn good. Since Jim Haslett took over, he paired Avery with Torry Holt on the same side of the field more often, and between Holt?s picture-perfect route running and Avery?s blinding speed it?s been a nightmare for opposing secondaries. With the Pats secondary already a nightmare, this one actually shapes up well for the resurgent Rams. If they can cover Randy Moss & Co. the way they blanketed TO and Jason Witten, New England is in real trouble. That might all be true, but you can?t help but be impressed with how dominant the Pats looked on MNF against a much better team than the Rams. If this were in St. Louis I?d be real tempted to pick the upset, but as it is I?ll just take the points for the Rams and pick the Patriots to win 30-24.
Buffalo (6) at Miami (24): The Bills are 5-1 but that lofty record almost needs an asterisk. The one team they have played with a winning record (Arizona) beat them 41-17, and the one true other decent team they played (Jacksonville) was missing several starters. The Bills rank in the top 10 in just one main statistical category (pass defense), though if you go by the adjusted statistics they fail to crack the top 10 in any of the 15+ categories but punt return. How do they do it, you ask? By not being below average in any category, that?s how; the Bills rank no lower than 18th in any main measure (turnovers), the only team in the league beside the Giants who can claim that mark. They?ve won 7 of the last 8 meetings with Miami and their overall balance should serve them well against the Dolphins, who have crushed one-dimensional offenses in New England and San Diego but have not done well when the opponent can run the ball consistently. Just 56% of the forecast models in my head call for a Buffalo win, but beware Joey Porter & Co. forcing turnovers. Buffalo 20, Miami 17.
Oakland (27) at Baltimore (10): Two teams that knocked off favored AFC East opponents last week meet in Baltimore. The Ravens run defense can snuff out the strong Raiders rushing attack, and I?m not buying that young Jamarcus Russell is able to win games just yet. That?s certainly harder without desposed mentor Lane Kiffin, a move the Raiders might regret for years if Russell never meets expectations. Expect lots of penalties and lots of work for the training staffs as the Ravens run to a 20-15 home win.
Monsoon season in Bangladesh games: Washington (7) at Detroit (32): The three easiest jobs in the world: 1. Weatherman in Aruba, where it is 87 degrees and mostly sunny with a 15MPH breeze 360 days a year; 2. Drummer for AC/DC, who have spent the better part of the last 35 years playing the exact same song over and over, with slightly different words; and 3. Offensive coordinator for whomever the Lions are playing, because people in that profession have figured out how to beat the standard Tampa 2 defense, which the Lions stubbornly cling to like, well, AC/DC fans and their worship of Angus Young. The Redskins should cruise out to the customary 21-point 1st half lead the Lions have spotted all but one opponent and just pray nobody gets hurt in a 33-13 Washington victory.
Kansas City (31) at New York Jets (25): We might look back to the Chiefs shocking victory over Denver as the biggest anomaly this season, because the way things look now it?s going to be the only win Kansas City is going to get. With both Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard lost for the season last week, it?s Tyler Thigpen and Quinn Gray at QB. For you salary cap and weekly fantasy players, that means you know which team defense to pick every week for the rest of the year. Most of their games are going to look like last week, a lopsided blowout where they are outclassed at every matchup. This game qualifies too, perhaps the only time the Jets will be able to claim that superiority. The buyer?s remorse on Damien Woody in New York gets quelled for a week. New York Jets 31, Kansas City 10.
Cincinnati (30) at Houston (22): After consecutive wins over middling Miami and pathetic Detroit, the Texans have reached a milestone. This game marks the first time in franchise history that the Texans are favored by 10 points or more, and one handicapper claims they are team with the worst point differential ever to be a double-digit favorite (they are -39). The Carson Palmer-less Bengals are at -84, but beware three factors at play here: The Texans have never won 3 games in a row, double-digit road underdogs have outright won games three weeks in a row, and the last two times the Bengals were 0-7, they won their 8th game by scores of 38-3 (against the expansion-year Texans) and 31-20. Turnover-prone Houston is ripe for the picking, as the Bengals young secondary continues to play hard and the pass rush is better than you think. Even if you don?t trust my outright pick of the Bengals over the Texans 24-20, do yourself a favor and take Cincy with the points.
Seattle (29) at San Francisco (28): The Niners fired coach Mike Nolan this week and replaced him with Mike Singletary. My question for the powers that be in SF: did Nolan draft busts Alex Smith, Manny Lawson, Vernon Davis, and Rashaun Woods with 1st round picks over a 3-year period? In-season coaching changes often produce extreme immediate results; compare the fate of the Rams under Jim Haslett (a win at 4-1 WAS) to the Raiders under Tom Cable (a blowout loss to NO) in their debut games. Seattle?s defense is awful and the offense isn?t much better with Seneca Wallace at the helm, but the SF offensive line has consistently buckled under far less duress than what the Seahawks bring to the table. Still, Mike Holmgren wasn?t far off when degrading his team for playing like a high school team. The Niners kick off the Singletary era with a 30-20 divisional win.
Bye Week: Chicago (12), Denver (18), Green Bay (14), Minnesota (21)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last Week: 4-1, taking the season ledger to 26-11.
I?m still bummed from Tuesday night?s ugly loss by my beloved alma mater at Temple. That close contest with the mighty Buckeyes sure seems like a distant memory for Frank Solich & Co.
Texas Tech at Kansas: Texas Tech recruited a kid who won tuition money by nailing a 30-yard FG to be their new kicker, after the other two guys they?ve tried have been worse than your local middle schooler. It shouldn?t matter, as Kansas doesn?t have the horses to outscore Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree et al. Red Raiders 36, Jayhawks 27.
Penn State at Ohio State: Terrell Pryor continues to astonish, and James Laurinaitis just played perhaps the best game at LB I?ve ever seen from a collegian. But PSU is legit across the board, and the stars seem to be shining on JoePa this year. Penn State 23, Ohio State 20.
Georgia at LSU: This game is a draftnik?s dream! The matchup that sways my forecast--the oft-dominant LSU defensive line against the greenhorn Bulldogs OL. That the game is in Baton Rouge doesn?t hurt either. LSU 29, Georgia 24.
Virginia Tech at Florida State: The winner of this game could very well wind up representing the ACC in the BCS. The Hokies offense was abysmal against BC last week, and the sledding gets no easier in Tallahassee. FSU 20, VT 10.
Oklahoma State at Texas: Two weeks ago I opined that OK State needed to show me they could beat a highly ranked team other than Oklahoma. Mission accomplished in that victory over suddenly wobbly Mizzou. Can they do it again here? It?s not likely unless Dez Bryant really puts on a show. Longhorns 38, Cowboys 31.
Coming next Monday: An interview with a veteran NFL collegiate scouting director. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
