Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
RealGM Search
The crispness is back in the air, and that can only mean one thing: It?s football season! Time for Sundays to be something more than a day to catch up on yardwork and napping. Time for sports bars to get busy on Sundays with something more than the alcoholics and Keno die hards. Time for families to congregate together around good food, good friends, and the biggest TV they can find.
That will be especially true this weekend as what?s left of Hurricane Gustav will likely blanket much of the eastern US under gloomy skies. And Hurricane Hanna appears likely to hit the southern Atlantic coast sometime early in the weekend. Games from Miami to Cleveland to New England could be impacted by wet, windy weather, conditions that typically favor teams that can run the ball and stop the run. Here?s hoping the winds and storm surge don?t wreak havoc on the people in their paths. Here?s also hoping that my man Reynolds Wolf and the other weather experts shooting on location stay safe and have lots of dry underwear.
My annual Week One disclaimer: Week One is the most difficult week to forecast. All the forecast models are based on hypotheticals and carry-over thoughts from last season and the overwhelmingly insignificant preseason. So these picks go on hunch and gut feeling as much as applying prior results and observations.
I steadfastly refuse to do power rankings until after the first 3 weeks, just as I won?t rank college football teams until the first week of October. I will give a quick recap of my playoff predictions from the season previews:
AFC: New England, Indianapolis, Cleveland, San Diego as division champs, with Denver and Pittsburgh as Wild Cards
NFC: Philadelphia, New Orleans, Minnesota, Seattle as division champs, with Carolina and the New York Giants as Wild Cards
Quickie predictions MVP--Drew Brees
Rushing Champ--LaDanian Tomlinson
Defensive MVP--Lofa Tatupu
Rookies of the Year--Matt Ryan on offense and Curtis Lofton on defense
Comeback Player--Jake Delhomme
Sack Champ--Aaron Kampman
Coach of the Year--Mike Holmgren as a going away present from his peers
Week 1 Predictions
Washington at New York Giants: The Super Bowl champs open at home, and that bodes well for them; the defending champ is 18-2 in home openers the following season in the last 20 years. The Skins have to figure out how to win with Jason Campbell at QB, who has lost 6 of the last 8 games he?s started and finished. Having a rookie head coach and both his prized rookie WRs banged up won?t help the cause. The Giants lost Osi Umeyiora, but quite often when a team loses a star defensive player, his mates rally hard in the first week. The Giants have plenty of guys who can step it up for Osi. New York 24, Washington 6.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Bucs made a real interesting move in trading for deposed Pittsburgh C Sean Mahan, considering their main offseason prize was stealing C Jeff Faine from the Saints. New Orleans has an OL capable of handling the strong Tampa front four, so long as they start the season better than they started 2007. I think they will, and I think Drew Brees has a big day as a result. New Orleans 28, Tampa Bay 13.
Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens are starting a rookie QB in Joe Flacco and could be without Ed Reed on defense. Against literally any other team I?d pick against Coach Harbaugh?s team, but the Bengals have plummeted into chaos before the first regular season snap, and their defensive front is a major weakness. Baltimore wins 20-17, probably with a defensive or special teams score.
St. Louis at Philadelphia: The Rams cleaned out the hospital ward, and the reward is a trip to Philly to play the motivated Eagles, who know they can ill afford to slip up against inferior opponents like this if they want to compete in the NFC East race. St. Louis will be better in 2008 but you might not think so after watching this one. Philadelphia 37-18.
Dallas at Cleveland: It?s a major mistake to read too much into preseason results, but it?s hard to ignore how consistently awful the Browns looked in August. Their secondary is a major concern, and both starting safeties are iffy plays. That makes Jason Witten the likely fantasy star of Week 1. Dallas wins in what could develop into a real entertaining shootout between power backs Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber. Cowboys 38-30.
New York Jets at Miami: Just a hunch, but I bet Chad Pennington is more than ready to prove to the Jets they gave up on him too willingly. This is a real test for the Jets, who play New England and San Diego in the next two weeks. The pressure to avoid a 0-3 start is terrific, and I think the Dolphins can take advantage. Miami 23, New York 20.
Kansas City at New England: Even though I?m not doing power rankings yet, if you put a gun to my head these would be teams #1 and 32. If you don?t know which is which, stop reading now. Patriots 36, Chiefs 13.
Houston at Pittsburgh: Houston?s brutal start to their schedule brings the first dose of cold reality in Pittsburgh. Think Dick Lebeau?s defensive charges aren?t fired up about facing a rookie LT on a team with no running threat? Pittsburgh 31, Houston 13.
Jacksonville at Tennessee: Tough to say how the Jaguars respond to Fred Taylor?s arrest or, more importantly, tackle Richard Collier being shot multiple times. Hurricane Hanna might impact this game more than any other, both with on-field weather conditions and the potential it makes landfall in the JAX area. Tennessee 16, Jacksonville 10.
Detroit at Atlanta: Detroit?s defense has a nasty habit of starting the season strong, before deteriorating to the ?We suck? level that defines Lions football. That is bad news for Atlanta, which starts a rookie QB, a rookie LT, and had to trade for Domonique Foxworth this week so they have one legitimate CB on the roster. The one thing the Lions do very well is throw the ball all over the field, more bad news for Atlanta. Detroit wins a rare roadie 33-24.
Seattle at Buffalo: All the talk about Buffalo challenging for a playoff spot goes out the window with no Jason Peters at LT. Julian Peterson, Darryl Tapp, and rookie Lawrence Jackson will demonstrate why, as Seattle unleashes the most underappreciated D in the league. Look for a strong debut by Seattle rookie TE John Carlson. Seahawks 20-10.
Carolina at San Diego: For the gambling crowd this game features all kinds of intriguing teasers. For the non-gamblers, this game is about how well Carolina can move the ball minus suspended star WR Steve Smith and fragile import DJ Hackett against a tough Chargers D minus suspended LB Stephen Cooper and with Shawne Merriman?s wounded knee, which should give out about the second time Travelle Wharton cut blocks him. The Panthers 2007 road success carries into 2008 as they go to San Diego and surprise the Bolts 23-20.
Arizona at San Francisco: The battle of unexpected starting QBs and quietly strong defenses. The last time a Mike Martz offense faced the Cardinals they passed on 23 consecutive plays and set an NFL record for rushing ineptitude. Frank Gore is praying Martz learned his lesson, but those of us who know Martz know better. The games between these two teams often come down to some weird crunch-time mistake, and I trust Kurt Warner over JT O?Sullivan. Arizona 26, San Francisco 24.
Chicago at Indianapolis: Peyton Manning should be fine, and that should be more than enough to outscore the Bears. Teams almost never lose when opening a new stadium, and this game christens beautiful Lucas Field and its retractable roof. Indy blows the roof off with a 26-10 victory.
Minnesota at Green Bay: This game just might decide the fate of the NFC North right away. All the Green Bay talk has been about Favre, but they very quietly have major issues along the D-line. That?s real bad news against the best rushing attack in the league. Minnesota runs to a 30-17 road win.
Denver at Oakland: The Raiders just signed castoff Ashley Leile to try and field at least one competent NFL WR opposite Ronald Curry. That sound you hear is Broncos coach Mike Shanahan laughing at Raiders coach Lane Kiffin, who will quickly learn why Leile was available for nothing. Points could be real hard to come by for two teams with great CB pairs and real iffy passing attacks. Expect lots of runs, and neither team looks to have much run defense. It?s the only way Oakland is going to win games, and they steal this one 20-17.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games Normally I pick both Ohio State and Ohio University games, the two teams closest to my heart. They play each other this week, and even with no Beanie Wells it?s not going to be much of a challenge for the Buckeyes to declaw the Bobcats. Look away, fellow OU alumni, look away...
- East Carolina 29, West Virginia 26
- Oklahoma 44, Cincinnati 38
- Georgia Tech 27, Boston College 20
- Florida 52, Miami 17
