Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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By varying degrees of surprise the Ravens, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders are all 0-2. And there's a common theme amongst that group which explains a lot of their collective misfortune. It's the same reason the Benglas, Steelers, Bucs, and Giants (among others) are 2-0. The biggest difference between the 2-0 and the 0-2 is offensive line play.
The big guys upfront rarely get the credit, and many are completely unknown to the casual fan. But ask Carnell Williams the reason why he leads the league in rushing yards, and he'll point to the five wide guys in front of him. Need a reason why the Bengals have started so quickly? How about the fact they are the only team that brought back all 5 starting offensive linemen. That cohesion and familiarity with roles and assignments allows Carson Palmer to keep his pants clean and provides Rudi Johnson with good running holes. The same applies for the Giants, who brought back four starters and added stud tackle Kareem McKenzie to the mix. Any halfway competent NFL QB can beat a good secondary if they have time to throw and good sight lines, and Eli Manning has both. Tiki Barber gets the luxury of not getting hit until he's beyond the line of scrimmage, just as Willie Parker does in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are the shining example of how a great offensive line can make good skill position players outstanding. No Bettis, no Staley, no problem for this group. Check out Parker's numbers: 47 carries, 272 yards, 5.8 yards per carry, and 6.6 yards per carry on first down. Parker showed some flashes in limited time last season, but an undrafted free agent from a major conference school doesn't put up numbers like that without having a line that opens, and maintains, some serious holes in the defense. Ben Roethlisberger is no doubt a very good QB, but he's made better playing behind a line that has given up one sack in two games, and that sack lost one yard on a play when just two receivers were in patterns. He's also run the ball only three times, and one of those was a short-yardage plunge. Give a decent QB time, good sight lines, and receivers that run good routes, and that offense will have success. Give a budding superstar QB like Roethlisberger, or Palmer or Eli Manning, those factors and you're going to win multiple playoff games, no matter the defenses.
The flip side is most visible in Minnesota, Arizona and Houston, where Daunte Culpepper, Kurt Warner and David Carr had better have titanium bones if they want to finish the season still able to walk. All the pundits wondered aloud, and very loudly, about how Minnesota would cope without Randy Moss. A few savvy analysts realized the loss of offensive coordinator Scott Linehan might be just as critical. Yet even with those two valuable contributors gone, it's painfully evident that this unit misses Pro Bowl center Matt Birk most of all. Culpepper is an outstanding QB, but on almost every passing play he's facing immediate pressure up the middle. The guards have been dreadful, often missing easy assignments and frequently beaten off the snap. Opposing defenses aren't forced to blitz and create receiving holes, and the lack of a throwing pocket and lanes forces Culpepper to rush plays and not set his body to throw. The result is 8 INTs and the worst QB rating in the league. Paired with a complete lack of running threat, the explosive Viking offense of years past is a distant memory. And it all begins up front, where the Vikings have quietly had great O-lines since the mid-80s.
It's actually worse in Houston, where a team thought to be on the rise is easily the worst team in football through the first two weeks. David Carr has passed for a meek 118 yards per game, while being sacked 13 times and forced to run the ball for 14 attempts. Opposing defenses haev been credited with QB hurries on over half of Carr's 47 attempts. Domanick Davis, coming off two straight 1000 yard seasons, barely has 100 after two weeks of being hit in the backfield and trying to squeeze through invisible holes. The surprising thing about Houston's poor line is the continuity from last season, when the line was steady if unspectacular and brought back four regulars. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer took the hatchet, but don't expect much from the Texans offense until their offensive line improves to being even below-average, something it's not close to at this point.
The Cardinals were a trendy pick to win the NFC West, but there's a fundamental flaw on that team. When you feature a largely immobile QB that depends heavily on pinpoint timing and precise routes and lanes, you must have an O-line that creates a comfortable pocket and provides time for deeper passing plays to develop. Kurt Warner is still among the best throwers when he's got time to hit speedy receivers, but under pressure he looks like a guy who couldn't start in NFL Europe. The Cardinals line has not given Warner enough time, nor more importantly, throwing lanes to hit his talented wideouts. Coupled with some of the worst run blocking imaginable and a rookie RB who hasn't yet learned that blitz pickup is part of his job, that spells serious trouble in Phoenix. There's more overall talent on the Cardinals' line than the others, so I would expect them to gel more quickly and get the ball rolling again. But in Minnesota, Houston, and also Green Bay and Baltimore, where the issue is more run blocking and poor QB play as much as pass protection, it's going to be a very long season without significant improvement on the O-line.
