By Jeff Risdon
As the calendar turns to September, football has returned! The first week of college football is in the books, and the NFL kicks off this Thursday.
From cutdown day to suspensions to preseason surprises, here are a few things rattling around my football brain.
$.01--My hometown of Cleveland once again dominated the summer sports news cycle. This time it had nothing to do with Johnny Manziel or LeBron James, though the Kevin Love trade did make my smile a mile wide.
Star wideout Josh Gordon was suspended for a full year for his most recent failed drug test. His appeal was denied, and now the habitual offender faces a one-year banishment from the NFL.
Gordon, who twice failed drug tests while at Baylor and failed another when he tried to transfer to Utah, has a serious marijuana problem. Of that there is no doubt. Yet many are criticizing the NFL, and more specifically Commissioner Roger Goodell, for the way the Gordon case has been handled.
The appellate process dragged on far longer than necessary. The league failed to rule on it for some three weeks, which means the banishment extends deep into the 2015 preseason. It also completely removes him from any NFL activities, the one bit of structure in his troubled life.
It’s hard to sympathize with Gordon. Even if he was merely guilty of being exposed to secondhand smoke, he’s a complete idiot for being around guys smoking weed. His selfishness and lack of professionalism and good judgment have likely cost him his career, and that’s a shame.
Now the Browns face the season without the NFL’s leading receiver a year ago. His 1646 yards ranks 9th in the Super Bowl era, and Gordon’s blend of size, speed and strength made him one of the most formidable weapons in football.
His absence leaves oft-injured Miles Austin and 5’7” Andrew Hawkins, who caught 12 passes in Cincinnati last year, as the starting receivers for underwhelming starting QB Brian Hoyer. This could be one of the lowest-scoring offenses of the 2000s, folks. Bet the under on everything with the Cleveland Browns.
$.02--Another long-lingering suspension issue came down in San Francisco, where star pass rusher Aldon Smith was suspended for the first nine games for a series of malfeasances. Among his indiscretions:
- A DUI in Sept. 2013
- Guilty plea to six charges, including illegal assault weapons charges, following a party at his home where someone was shot
- A Jan. 2012 DUI
- A fake bomb threat at LAX last April
He missed five games last season after entering rehab, so when he finally returns to the field in November Smith will have missed 14 games because of his propensity for illicit activities.
The Niners will miss Smith dearly. Remember, they’re also without star inside linebacker Navorro Bowman for at least the first six weeks as he recovers from a significant knee injury suffered in the playoffs. He might not be back at all.
Without that dynamic LB duo, and with defensive end Ray McDonald apparently gunning for a suspension of his own, these Niners are not even close to the dominating defense they’ve fielded in recent seasons.
This is among several reasons why I think San Francisco misses the playoffs in 2014 after making three straight NFC Championship games. You can read the full season predictions here this Wednesday.
$.03--Sadly there’s still more suspension news. This is what happens when there aren’t any games to distract us from the negatives, and no the final preseason week does not count as “real” NFL football.
In response to overwhelming criticism from all corners of the media for how the league handled Ray Rice and his domestic violence suspension, Commissioner Goodell announced a new policy.
Effective immediately, any NFL employee guilty of domestic violence is immediately suspended for six games for a first offense and a lifetime ban for the second. Further details are available here at the LA Times.
This is an appropriate response. It’s a shame it took such a public spectacle for the NFL to admit it was wrongly behind the times. The disturbing video of Rice, the Ravens star running back, dragging his unconscious fiancée out of a casino elevator is far more deserving of harsh punishment than a player getting busted with pot for the first time.
To his credit, Rice has handled his humiliation with dignity and proper remorse. I believe him when he says he regrets it and wants to make it right. But in any other profession, knocking a woman out in public and dragging her like a deer carcass would result in far sterner punishment than sparking up a few milligrams of weed.
The NFL did get it right, but only after failing miserably on the issue of domestic violence.
$.04--There was a chance that no rookie quarterbacks will start in Week 1, a feat that has not happened since 2007.
Normally, I would applaud the patience of these obviously needy franchises, but in two cases I believe the best option is to play the rookie over the veteran. Derek Carr should be the starter in Oakland, and Blake Bortles deserves the nod in Jacksonville.
Carr is the more ready and clearly the better option to lead the Raiders to victory than Matt Schaub. The former Texans QB was unimpressive once again in preseason. He’s obviously never recovered from his Lisfranc (foot) injury in 2011. Since that time, Schaub has been unable to drive the ball. He’s now messed up his elbow trying to compensate for the loss of base strength, and he’s not a capable NFL quarterback anymore.
Carr might not be one right away either, but at least he’s got potential. He played reasonably well in preseason, showing poise and awareness as well as a decent arm. The Raiders might as well get him up to speed as fast as possible. With him they might win 6 or 7 games, whereas with Schaub they top out at 4-12.
The Jaguars are strongly resisting the urge to play Bortles instead of underwhelming vet Chad Henne. It’s like a horny teenage boy on a first date with a buxom young lady and he’s trying to be on his best behavior. The gap between Henne and Bortles is closer than the one in Oakland, and Henne can produce some quality moments; the veteran Michigan man had a better QB Rating in the first half of games than Andrew Luck last year.
It’s a delicate balance for the Jaguars, and for the Vikings with Teddy Bridgewater as well. Their rookie QBs clearly need more time to hone their skills, but they also offer the team the better chance to win right now. The Browns are in that boat too, but not even Johnny Unitas, let alone Johnny Football, could get that team to more than 7 wins.
$.05--Saturday was roster cutdown day, as teams had to trim down to 53 players from 75. Several recognizable names wound up on the waiver wire, but none more prominent than Michael Sam.
The Rams' 7th round pick out of Missouri, Sam flashed some pass rushing skills in preseason. He even sacked Johnny Football and mocked him with the infamous money sign, a moment which almost caused the earth to stop spinning. Yet he was beaten out by better men for the job on a ridiculously deep St. Louis defensive line.
He’d be just another marginal NFL talent scrapping his way onto a practice squad (as of 5:24 PM Sunday he was still not signed anywhere), and the larger world would scarcely know his name. But because Sam came out as a homosexual player, the mass media will not let you forget about him.
Sam is, was and always will be a limited athlete with a great motor and good-not-great burst around the edge. He’s a one-dimensional player, strictly a pass rushing specialist. His sexual preference, showering habits (thanks for asking, ESPN!) and gregarious smile all have nothing to do with that.
You probably won’t hear much about other seventh round picks who didn’t make their teams. The Rams themselves have three others who also failed to make the team. Go ahead and try to name one without looking it up…
You’ll never hear ESPN ever mention Mitchell Van Dyk, Christian Bryant or Demetrius Rhaney. But you’ll hear volumes about Michael Sam. That’s not fair to him, or to the Rams. When the people covering the game care more about ancillary crap than the people playing it, it’s time to find new people to cover the game.
$.06--There was a rare trade of actual players last week, as the New England Patriots dealt Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Tim Wright. The Patriots will also receive a fouth-round pick.
Mankins is a Pro Bowl-caliber guard, albeit an aging one (he’s 32) with a fat contract and no desire to restructure said contract. He’s made five All Pro teams while doing an exemplary job of keeping Tom Brady comfortable and healthy.
He immediately becomes the best lineman on what has been a strangely depleted Bucs unit. After Carl Nicks was forced to retire due to MRSA he contracted from team facilities (allegedly) and departures of Donald Penn and Jeremy Zuttah, the Bucs are left with a rebuilt line. Before Mankins’ arrival, the starting guards were Jamon Meredith and Patrick Omameh. That’s easily the worst guard tandem in football.
Now the Bucs add a stud back to the front, and one with much-needed playoff experience. Mankins is a tone setter for a team that is still recovering from tone-deaf coach Greg Schiano, who played every note wrong in his two seasons of ravaging this franchise. Even if he’s just 90% of his peak self, he’s still an incredible asset for a team that could be a pleasant surprise this year.
The Patriots get an underrated talent in Wright, a hybrid tight end/wideout who hauled in 50 catches as a rookie last year. My first exposure to Wright, an undrafted player from Rutgers, was in the Detroit game. He immediately impressed with his ability to get open against a very good cover LB in DeAndre Levy.
He’s a sure-handed, big and fleet target who can line up inline or as the motion end or in the slot. For a team still among the very bottom in receiving talent, adding a player of his ability is a big boost. The Patriots were likely to cut Mankins as a salary cap casualty after 2014, and they trust Marcus Cannon to fill Mankins’ spot reasonably well. I do too.
$.07--One of the common complaints about this preseason was the barrage of flags that dragged the pace of the game down to almost baseball levels. Okay, nothing is slower or more tedious to watch than baseball. But still, when both teams rack up double digits in penalties, the gridiron action often crawled along.
The renewed emphasis on illegal contact by defensive players on receivers was the genesis of much of the yellow laundry, and also the scorn of the fans. Fret not, because the point has been made. While there will still be a definite uptick, the players are now conditioned to understand what will draw a flag and what they can get away with. Defensive coaches now have the ability to make adjustments, some of which include increased jamming right at the line or learning how to sell the offensive player initiating the contact and committing interference.
One trend I did really like in the preseason was the officials more closely calling the head bobs and failure to completely set by offensive linemen. It’s a blatant violation that has been under-policed for years. The most infamous example was in Peyton Manning’s final year in Indianapolis and two of his linemen were still not even to the line of scrimmage when the ball was snapped, but no flags.
Keep in mind that preseason was practice for the officials too, and many of them are new. Even casual NFL fans (read: my mom) know who Mike Carey is, but he won’t be working games anymore. Expect penalties to be up, but not as dramatically as they were in the preseason.
--I was really impressed with Texas A&M as they throttled South Carolina. Kenny Hill looked fantastic running the Aggie offense, a real testament to the coaching prowess of Kevin Sumlin. For my money he’s the best coach in the nation, and as he gets more notoriety the Aggies are only going to get better. Remember the name Ricky Seals-Jones, too.
--Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon looked rocked up but still in possession of lightning acceleration and a top-end gear that few can match. So it’s puzzling why the Badgers barely played him, let alone fed him the rock, in the second half of a bad loss to LSU. Wisconsin was in complete control until coach Gary Andersen inexplicably fell in love with a bad quarterback throwing to worse receivers against one of the best defenses in the nation. The Big Ten sorely needed a marquee win there, but the Badgers gave it away by being outcoached by Les Miles. Ouch.
--Clemson edge rusher Vic Beasley is widely touted as a top-10 pick, but he looked decidedly pedestrian in the Tigers’ bad loss to Georgia. The scoreboard said 45-21 but it wasn’t that close. Beasley struggled against a relatively straightforward blocking scheme, unable to get the edge or bend around it when he did. Instead of Beasley, the player who looked like a top-10 pick was Todd Gurley. Yes, Georgia’s running back. He absolutely can go that high.
--Jameis Winston is a fantastic college quarterback, and he deserved the Heisman Trophy while leading Florida State to the national title last year. As a NFL prospect however…let’s just say he needs a lot of work. A lot of work. The good news is he has a lot of time, too.
--Here’s why casinos make money. The line on the Ohio State-Navy game dropped to OSU -17.5 after the news of Braxton Miller’s injury got out. Ohio State won 34-17 after scoring a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. Decent first outing for Miller’s replacement J.T. Barrett: 12-of-15, 226 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT in a game I did not watch.
--The Chicago Bears are my pick to win the NFC North, but their safeties still scare the hell out of me. They should scare the hell out of Bears fans too. Ryan Mundy and Danny McCray are a little better than Chris Conte and Major Wright, but that’s like saying it’s better to get pooped on by a sea gull than a pigeon.
--I’ve been an avowed Kellen Moore basher for his entire NFL career, but he absolutely earned his roster spot as Detroit’s third quarterback. He outplayed No. 2 QB Dan Orlovsky in the preseason and demonstrated his accuracy and ability to read defenses are definitely NFL caliber. I still believe his inferior arm strength limits him to being nothing more than a never-used backup, but that’s real progress for the Boise State legend.
--This week highlights the all-or-nothing career of Ryan Grigson as Colts GM. Indy’s personnel manager saw the team cut two of his five draft picks this year. Just one, left guard Jack Mewhort, will see significant action. He dealt the first-round pick for Trent Richardson and his 2.8 yards per carry projection. They also cut linebacker Kelvin Sheppard, for whom Grigson traded away quality pass rusher Jerry Hughes.
--Don’t forget that fantasy football also starts this Thursday night. If you’re a casual fantasy footballer like me, you might need the reminder to set your lineup after your league’s draft.
$.10--It’s a holiday, so I’ll keep this one brief. Enjoy your time with loved ones. Put down the tablet and go throw a ball with your kids, or take a walk on a nature trail. Play a board game. Go fishing with an older relative. Buy an actual newspaper and share it with your cohabitants, and even talk about the stories inside. Introduce your kids to classic movies like Ghostbusters or National Lampoon’s Vacation. Take the time to appreciate and take advantage of your day off.
Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, IQ
By Jeff Risdon
2013: 4-12, last in AFC North
2014 line: +/- 6.5 wins
Why the Over
If the Cleveland Browns are to top even five wins, it’s on the back of the defense. This is a deep and talented unit with solid players across the board and no glaring weaknesses, a top 10 unit last season that might be even better in 2014.
The front line is one of the best in football, though it doesn’t get the national attention. Desmond Bryant, Billy Winn, Athyba Rubin, Phil Taylor, John Hughes and Ishmaa’ily Kitchen make up a versatile, tough, physical and very deep D-line. Even undrafted rookies Calvin Barnett and Jacobbi McDaniel have shown legit NFL ability in the preseason, yet they’re not likely to make the team. While the unit lacks a true star, it’s got solid starts and fantastic backups no matter how the depth chart shakes out.
The linebackers behind them aren’t too shabby either. Even after parting ways with inside backer and team leader D’Qwell Jackson, they still have appreciable talent. Outside guys Barkevious Mingo and Paul Kruger are a solid tandem. Mingo has so much speed and ability to flatten around the edge. The second-year LSU product is poised for a breakout campaign a year after being a top 10 pick. Mingo should push 10 sacks this year after bagging five as a rookie.
Kruger was a disappointment with just 4.5 sacks, though he wasn’t used as aggressively as anticipated under deposed defensive coordinator Ray Horton. He’s a more physical rusher who can also crash inside against the run. It’s a mistake to write him off, though expectations should be lowered a bit. Fortunately the team has two solid reserves in Jabaal Sheard and Justin Staples who can rotate in and generate some pass rush and chaos off the edge. Sheard actually led the Browns with 5.5 sacks and did so in just 13 games.
Rookie Christian Kirksey could be a real find in replacing Jackson. The third-round pick from Iowa is a very fluid athlete with an outstanding football IQ. I like that he’s playing behind a line that can keep him clean even though it’s a 3-man front. It’s his coverage skills that will stand out the most in 2014. With veteran Karlos Dansby next to him and mentoring him, he could blossom quickly.
Dansby remains effective. The free agent from Arizona was one of Pro Football Focus’ top ILBs last year, and it’s from a similar defensive scheme. He’s also an oddball personality that can loosen up the locker room and be a real asset for new head coach Mike Pettine. The inside duo has the ability to shut down the short and intermediate passing games over the middle, a staple of many NFL offenses. This tandem is an upgrade over Jackson and Craig Robertson, who now slides into a reserve capacity.
The secondary has a chance to be very good. Joe Haden isn’t as awesome as he thinks he is, but the confident corner is a legit Pro Bowl talent. He’s a playmaking corner who plays like a shutdown cover man…at times. More consistency would be nice, but Haden is a viable #1 corner in a league where not many of those exist anymore.
In swapping in Donte Whitner for T.J. Ward, the Browns traded a little bit of range for more reliability. “Hitner” also brings a winning mentality and real attitude to his hometown defense. He’s one of the best short-range safeties in the league and a menace to any receiver crossing the middle. Tashaun Gipson emerged as a playmaking safety a year ago, picking off 5 passes. His cover skills aren’t great, but to that end the team added (hopefully) better corner play to mitigate his lack of deep range.
I’m admittedly not a big fan of first-round pick Justin Gilbert, the speedy corner from Oklahoma State. He’s got outstanding measurable and showed great improvement in his final season in Stillwater. He could wind up being a very good #2 corner, and I do appreciate that the Browns aren’t relying on him to travel all over the field mirroring the opponent’s top wideout.
Between Buster Skrine, Isaiah Trufant, Leon McFadden and rookie Pierre Desir, the Browns do have potential to have depth at the position. Skrine has been a disappointment but still is young enough to have potential in the slot. Desir, the team’s 4th round pick, probably needs a year to get up to NFL speed but could wind up being better than Gilbert in the long run. I also like the potential of reserve safety Jordan Poyer, though it’s time for him to start showing more of it.
Offensively, the line features two elite talents in left tackle Joe Thomas and center Alex Mack. Both are no worse than the 2nd-best player in the league at their respective positions. Thomas deserves mention as one of the top 5 overall talents in the NFL today. Second round pick Joel Bitonio looks like a plug-and-play fixture at left guard between them.
Jordan Cameron has developed into a very good receiving threat at tight end. He’s got an outstanding catch radius and his route running continues to improve. His line of 80-917-7 could actually increase now that he appears to be the primary target. With superb talent but drug addicted Josh Gordon’s availability very much in questions, Cameron should challenge Jimmy Graham for the most catches and yards among TEs.
Gordon is the big variable. He’s one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league, a downfield speedster with great strength and strong hands. Alas, he’s facing a suspension of at least 8 games for repeatedly violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. It could be a full season. If he is available for even half a season it greatly augments Cleveland’s chances to compete for as many as 8 wins, but that’s an unknown at this point.
The special teams are solid, with return man Travis Benjamin an explosive threat. Punter Spencer Lanning is one of the league’s more consistent punters and can hang the ball high.
Why the Under
Go ahead, name one viable NFL wide receiver on the roster other than Josh Gordon. When the first name that comes to your lips is Andrew Hawkins, you know there’s a problem.
Sure, Miles Austin and Nate Burleson are on the roster. Those are recognizable names, but injuries and age have robbed both of much of their skills. They combined for 63 catches and one touchdown as part of significantly better passing offenses in Dallas and Detroit, respectively. Austin does have some potential to top 50 receptions, but it’s no safe bet. Burleson is an awesome locker room presence, but that can only do so much.
Hawkins, a free agent defection from rival Cincinnati, is one of the quickest and niftiest players in the league. Unfortunately his incredible YouTube work has never really translated into greatness on the field. The 5’7” slot man has just 86 receptions and 4 TDs in his three seasons. He’s a nice player, but over his head as the #2 option.
Of course, with Gordon’s looming suspension Hawkins could very well be the de facto No. 1 wideout. Pair that with the quarterback chaos, and this Cleveland passing offense sure looks like the worst in the NFL. In a league where everything is geared towards high-octane, precision passing attacks, the Browns are going in the opposite direction.
Ah yes, the quarterbacks. I covered Brian Hoyer’s relative blandness earlier this summer. Nothing I’ve seen in two underwhelming preseason efforts has changed my mind; he’s a suitable backup, nothing more. Then there’s this Johnny Football guy…
I want to believe in Johnny Manziel, I really do. I think his unconventional, improvisational style can work in the NFL, and his arm and eyes are both underrated. I think his general contempt for traditional football structure and common sense can galvanize a team around him. But at some point he’s got to start approaching a middle ground with the firmly entrenched ways and means of life in the NFL instead of flipping it the bird, or drinking champagne on an inflatable one.
The macro problem is that this is a franchise ravaged by instability, irresponsibility and chaos. They’ve had more coaches in the last four years than the rival Steelers have had in 40. This latest edition marks the seventh major overhaul since the Browns returned to the field in 1999.
The constant schematic changes, personnel philosophies and draft strategies have taken a major toll. Even though there is real talent on this team, it doesn’t have any cohesion or continuity.
Now the embattled owner (thanks to his scrupulous business practices with Flying J) turns the reins over to a rookie head coach, an offensive coordinator noted for being unsuccessful, and a cult of personality rookie quarterback already being either lionized or demonized by fans and fellow NFL players. It’s a recipe for disaster.
I have concerns about other spots as well. I don’t trust Billy Cundiff as the kicker, a valuable position for a team that figures to wind up in several lower-scoring duels. I’m not crazy about the right side of the offensive line, though I do think Bitonio will be decent enough as a rookie. Ben Tate is too injury-prone to handle being the lead back, and visionless rookie Terrence West doesn’t move my needle much. The safety and inside linebacker depth isn’t great, but that’s getting nitpicky.
The Browns opened last season 3-2 and have since lost 10 of 11, including the final 7 last year. The bigger question might not even be how many games they win on the season, but when their losing streak will end. They will be decided underdogs in their first five games (@PIT, NO, BAL, @TEN, PIT) before they get to what appears to be some winnable games before a brutal final stretch.
It’s a shame a talented defense and a rookie head coach I genuinely like are destined to suffer through one of the most publicized losing campaigns in recent memory. A bad offense is going to be even worse with the incessant quarterback controversy and a schedule which offers several strong defenses. The nonstop cycling of divergent leadership regimes, all with their own styles and peculiarities, have left this team a complete mess.
The good news is that they have two first-round picks next year, and between their own pick and Buffalo’s pick (an absolute steal by GM Ray Farmer) they could very well own two top 5 picks. They really aren’t that far from being a decent team, they just need some stability and cohesion. It won’t happen in ’14. These Browns go 3-13. They’re a strong “under” bet.
Cleveland Browns, IQ
By Jeff Risdon
I know, college football season hasn’t even started yet. So why put out a mock draft now?
There are a couple of reasons. First, consider this a sort of “watch list” for players who I believe could wind up as first-round picks next May. I haven’t really perused other mock drafts to this point, so the players populating this list are talents I believe are either already highly regarded or will emerge to that level in the ’14 season.
Second, it’s always fun to look ahead and try to project where NFL teams will be nine months from now. What might they be looking for in the ’15 draft? Obviously that’s quite difficult to predict, as several teams will have coaching and front office changes.
The order here is based on current (as of 8/18/14) season win total over/under lines in ascending order. In cases of ties, I broke those ties with my own forecast for which team will win more games. The draft order here is technically impossible, as it does not account for division winners and playoff seeding. Get past that, folks…
1. Oakland Raiders: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon. Sure they just drafted Derek Carr in the second round. They cannot afford to look past a superior overall prospect and dual-threat weapon like Mariota. He needs some passing polish, but the physical tools are all there for Mariota to be Colin Kaepernick’s equal, if not superior. He’s just a junior, so it’s far from a given that he declares.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon. Ducks go 1-2 in this premature edition. IEO, as he’s known in scouting shorthand, enters the season as my personal No. 1 overall player. He’s got size, speed, vision, instincts and playmaking flair. He has a chance to be the best CB in the NFL at some point, something that cannot be said of any first-rounders in the last 2-3 drafts.
3. Cleveland Browns: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn. He’s a downfield demon with legit 4.3 speed, impressive for a rocked-up 6’2”, 200+ pounder. Coates is dripping with potential. If he shows he can improve his footwork on routes and concentration over the middle, he’s going to be the first wideout taken. The Browns need every weapon they can get for Johnny Football, and character concerns are going to matter. Coates
4. Cleveland (from Buffalo Bills): Vic Beasley, Edge, Clemson. The booty for dealing the pick that became Sammy Watkins to Buffalo is the top pass-rushing prospect heading into the season. Beasley has a lightning first step and great closing burst to the ball. He fits better as a 3-4 OLB as he appears fairly maxed out at about 245 pounds.
5. Minnesota Vikings: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford. The Vikings already have a solid pair of tackles in Matt Kalil and Phil Loadholt, but Peat could be too skilled to pass on here. He’s got outstanding length and quick feet, a natural left tackle. The Vikings do like to trade picks, too…
6. Tennessee Titans: Leonard Williams, DT, USC. He’s the closest thing I’ve seen to Ndamukong Suh since the Lions stud was dominating at Nebraska. A violently strong interior presence with the athleticism to play anywhere along the line, the rising junior has everything NFL teams want. The Titans have a sturdy young line with Jurrell Casey, Mike Martin and Sammie Lee Hill, but Williams gives them real star potential up front. Have to think that if they’re picking this high they’ll look strongly at a QB, however.
7. Houston Texans: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State. It might seem inconceivable for the reigning Heisman winner and field general of the national champs is not a top 5 pick, let alone No. 1 overall. I think he’s a victim of hyper-scrutiny about his character, but also his surprisingly spotty mechanics and accuracy. He can--and I suspect he will--iron the on-field issues out, and that should be enough to convince the Texans to trust him with the keys to the franchise.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa. The Bucs offensive line is in the process of a major turnover, and Scherff has the potential to be the centerpiece of a rebuilt front. Physical and relentless, he’s likely a right tackle at the next level, but could be an awesome one. When I graded him for the ’14 draft he came out ahead of No. 11 overall pick Taylor Lewan, a similar style of player. Scherff isn’t as athletic, however.
9. New York Jets: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State. If you liked Mike Evans in the ’14 draft, Strong is your kind of receiver. Big and strong (no pun intended) with a huge catch radius, the 6’4” junior is a better route runner than Evans already. He’s a viable potential No. 1 receiver, something the Jets could pair nicely with a talented No. 2 in Eric Decker.
10. St. Louis Rams: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA. If the Rams miss out on the playoffs once again, it’s likely Sam Bradford’s fault. That means it’s time for a change, and that change is the rangy Bruins junior. He’s a divisive prospect already, as some (I raise my hand high) worry about his accuracy as much as they are tantalized by his huge arm and great size.
11. Washington Ethnic Slurs: Landon Collins, S, Alabama. Washington drafted a pair of safeties in 2013, but Philip Thomas and Bacarri Rambo have yet to emerge past decidedly average journeymen Ryan Clark and Brandon Meriweather. Collins is a do-it-all safety with strong tackling skills and solid instincts vs. the pass, giving them a long-term solution at a position of growing importance. Collins is just a junior.
12. Arizona Cardinals: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida. Fowler is a rising junior with freak closing speed and lateral quickness for a 275ish-pound edge player. He’s not afraid to get physical. If he can clean up his positional discipline and continue to wreak havoc in backfields, he could go a lot higher than 12th. I think the Cardinals are better than this slot, so for them to add another impact piece to their solid defense would be quite fortunate. Fowler and Calais Campbell would be a devastating DE/OLB duo to try and block.
13. New York Giants: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M. Ogbuehi continues the strong line of premium tackles in College Station. He’s not quite as high-end as Luke Joeckel or Jake Matthews, but he’s a high-floor talent who is ready to start right out of the box at either tackle spot. The rebuild of the Giants offense continues by building up the front and adding skill position weapons in the next few rounds.
14. Miami Dolphins: Devante Parker, WR, Louisville. Long and strong, Parker proved he could make the tough catch from Teddy Bridgewater. Now he gets to break in a new QB at Louisville. His projected 4.55 speed waters down his draft stock a bit, but there might not be a better catcher of the football in the next draft. He’d make a great complement for Mike Wallace to help Ryan Tannehill’s progression in Miami.
15. Kansas City Chiefs: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford. A blazing speedster with reliable hands, Montgomery would immediately upgrade a Kansas City receiving corps that scares Chiefs fans more than it does opponents. In his junior season, he can elevate his stock by improving his footwork and selling his moves better.
16. Carolina Panthers: P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State. A fluid athlete with a very high football IQ, Williams will get a lot of exposure playing for the Seminoles. He can elevate himself higher than this if he makes more impact plays as a junior. He would immediately step into Carolina and be their No. 1 corner.
17. San Diego Chargers: Shilique Calhoun, Edge, Michigan State. He’s a fierce pass rusher with explosive athletic metrics, a perfect fit along a Chargers front that needs more sizzle off the edge. His ability to play both end and 3-4 outside backer gives the defense more options. The junior reminds me of Mario Williams.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Randy Gregory, Edge, Nebraska. Another player who is going to divide the draft community, Gregory has potential to be a dynamic edge rusher with a great first step. If he can even out some truly ugly ’13 game tape (Michigan, among others), the rising junior would bring speed and length to what appears to be a brutal Dallas defense.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Funchess, TE/WR, Michigan. He’s a hybrid receiver along the lines of Eric Ebron or Tyler Eifert, a wideout in a tight end frame. The junior offers great potential as a seam-stretcher and giant slot presence. He could blossom with more consistent QB play, something he would get in Pittsburgh with Big Ben.
20. Atlanta Falcons: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia. The two-year drought of first round running backs ends with the eminently talented Bulldogs junior. He will remind some of Steven Jackson, others of Marshawn Lynch. With Jackson nearing the end, the Falcons could add the local product to bolster and balance the Matt Ryan-centric offense.
21. Detroit Lions: La’el Collins, OT, LSU. A massive and punishing line presence, Collins offers the Lions options up front. LaAdrian Waddle and Riley Reiff are both versatile, which would allow Detroit to find the best combination to help fuel their high-powered offense. Yes, once again the Lions do not take a first-round corner…that’s what free agency is for.
22. Baltimore Ravens: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State. With Darqueze Dennard now a Bengal, the Ravens tap his Spartans mate to be their own shutdown corner. The rising junior has size and attitude, two attributes in high demand in the NFL today. Of all the picks I’ve made here, this is the one that is the most likely to actually come to fruition.
23. Chicago Bears: Derron Smith, S, Fresno State. Smith is a playmaking cover safety, something the Bears desperately need. He lacks size but doesn’t lack punch when he’s flying all over the field. He’d make a great fit for Chicago in the pass-happy NFC North, a division I think they win in 2014 despite a still-leaky defense.
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Noah Spence, Edge, Ohio State. The rising junior performed at his best against top competition, and he’s an impact player against both the run and pass. His game is similar to Kyle Van Noy from the ’14 draft, and Spence has the similar lack of power and strength that he can build up to improve his stock.
25. Cincinnati Bengals: Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina. Bengals fans are used to a former SEC behemoth anchoring the offensive line. As Andrew Whitworth approaches his mid-30s, Cincinnati reloads with the 6’7”, 330ish Robinson. He’s still fairly raw with his technique, but you can’t coach his length and brute power.
26. Indianapolis Colts: Ellis McCarthy, DT, UCLA. The junior’s upside is similar to the good Nick Fairley, a disruptive gap penetrator with both power and quickness. McCarthy has to be reminded he’s big at times, but guys his size (6’4”, 325) with his movement skills from a major program typically don’t last long on draft boards.
27. New Orleans Saints: Ramik Wilson, ILB, Georgia. A tightly-wound tackling machine with decent range, Wilson would make a great fit in Rob Ryan’s aggressive, oft-unconventional defense. He could lead the nation in tackles in 2014, but his best NFL attribute might be his cover skills in the short and intermediate range.
28. San Francisco 49ers: Deontay Greenberry, WR, Houston. Every year there are a couple of surprise first round picks, and it’s often the 49ers who make one. Greenberry is a long, speedy monster along the lines of Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas. He needs to show his strength more frequently, and then the junior can take the NFL draft process by storm.
29. Green Bay Packers: Alvin Dupree, Edge, Kentucky. Dupree is a player I think will blossom going forward as he gets stronger and learns how to better use his hands. He’s already physical and has nifty feet for a 260-something pound edge rusher, and he’s also shown he is fluid in space. Great fit for a zone blitzing team like Dom Capers’ Packers, who can use him opposite Clay Matthews.
30. New England Patriots: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama. This is probably lower than you’ll see the talented Cooper in most mock drafts, but his lack of any elite trait will water down his stock. That doesn’t mean the Patriots won’t be getting a potentially great receiver, as his sticky hands, route savvy and professional polish are all already evident.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State. The player Greene most reminds me of is former Seahawk Golden Tate, who took the money and ran to Detroit. He’s comfortable lining up in the slot or outside, has superb hands and body control and he can make tacklers miss. He’s not as fast at Tate, but the reigning Super Bowl champs can use his NFL-ready game.
32. Denver Broncos: Josh Shaw, CB, USC. The onetime Florida star recruit has the traits of a hybrid corner/safety a la Kenny Vaccaro or Calvin Pryor, two recent first round picks. His high football IQ and great burst out of breaks should translate well to the NFL. Denver needs to keep reloading secondary talent.
Next 10 players picked: Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor; Marcus Peters, CB, Washington; Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State; Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami; Ty Smabrailo, OT, Colorado State; Stefon Diggs, WR, Maryland; Jordan Jenkins, Edge, Georgia; Reese Dismukes, C, Auburn; Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington; Christian Covington, DT, Rice
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Mr. Manziel made his NFL debut, but didn't start and only took a handful of snaps before halftime. Yet he was the overwhelming national story despite a rather uneventful showing in a decidedly uneventful contest.
Johnny Manziel might not be the answer either, but at least he has the potential to be something that Brian Hoyer can never achieve: greatness. If Browns fans cannot accept that, the factory of sadness will only continue to get into a deeper depression.
The Texans may have picked the LeBron James of the NFL, Vikings had a jackpot pick in Teddy Bridgewater, a potential new No. 1 WR for the Saints and the other best picks for each team.
The Browns, Bills, Texans and Jaguars made the most noise in the draft.
This was indeed a deep draft, with more prospects than ever evaluated as worthy of being drafted, but it was still filled with surprises.
Great first rounds for the Rams, the NFC North as a whole, Bengals and Chargers, while the Eagles and Patriots received thumbs down, while Cleveland had the most intriguing night.