Happy Birthday to Pat Tillman, who would have been 38 today (Nov. 6). If you’re looking for a hero, you can’t do much better than Tillman.

Last Week: 9-4, a positive week for what was likely the last nice weather on a football Sunday in my neck of the exurban woods. Season forecast is now 87-45-1.

Gambling Update: I hit with the Patriots but bombed on the 49ers, producing a net loss of $500. Now at $11.5K after starting at $10K mythological dollars.

Thursday Night

- Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): The battle of Ohio has playoff ramifications for both teams along I-71 for the first time in a long time. The Browns haven’t won an AFC North road game in almost 6 years, and the way they’ve struggled against bottom-feeders Jacksonville and Tampa Bay doesn’t engender much confidence that the streak ends in Cincinnati. Andy Dalton appears bounced back from his rough patch, certainly helped by A.J. Green’s return. The Browns rushing attack and big-play passing game will challenge the Bengals, but in the end the home team protects the Jungle.

Bengals 30, Browns 24

Sunday Games

- Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-2): Last week the Dolphins played a truly outstanding game in blowing out the Chargers 37-0. They played almost perfectly for Joe Philbin, who lost his father earlier in the week.

They’re not going to play that well again. Not this week, perhaps not ever. But they can still win in Detroit, where the Lions are coming off a bye after two comeback victories that echo the Kardiac Kids Browns of the early 1980s. Detroit gets Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, Joseph Fauria, LaAdrian Waddle and Brandon Pettigrew--all of whom missed at least the last game--back for this one. They also add second-round linebacker Kyle Van Noy to the mix for the first time. The Lions are the rare team getting healthy starters back, not losing them.

I see a letdown week for Miami, but I also think all the returning pieces for Detroit will take some time to get together. These are two of the best defenses in the league, so it could very well come down to the kicking game. As much as Matt Prater’s game-winner in London was encouraging, I’m still skeptical that Detroit wins a kicking battle.

Dolphins 19, Lions 17

- San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5): I’m about to break my typical neutral (I’m part Swiss after all) character and be the obnoxious told-you-so idiot at the next barstool.

I warned y’all these Niners were not a playoff team. I talked about Harbaugh fatigue months ago. I implored that their defensive injuries and suspension were significant and outcome-altering. I saw the window closing and I put my money where my mouth was. This game wins me $500 real dollars, giving the Niners their 5th loss on a season where the over/under win total was 11.5 back in May. With the myriad of injuries, these are not even the Niners I expected to step back; it’s time to rethink your perception of this San Francisco team, which is a decaying shell of its former self.

Of course I probably just jinxed the Saints here. Honestly a playoff death gasp eruption by the visitors wouldn’t surprise me, but this New Orleans team has found itself defensively and with Mark Ingram’s running.

Saints 30, 49ers 20

- Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+1.5): The weather figures to play a role in this game, which is rife with AFC Wild Card implications. The projected forecast is for temps in the mid-30s with a 15-20 mph wind but not much of a chance of rain. Those are ideal conditions for running the football with authority. Kansas City does that better than Buffalo, whose run game has evaporated with the loss of C.J. Spiller. Both defenses are quite good, and a defensive or special teams score could very well be the difference here. I trust Alex Smith more than Kyle Orton, though the latter has been a nice boost for the home team.

Chiefs 17, Bills 14

- New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Very bad matchup for the Giants, on the road with a receiving corps that apparently can’t catch and a run defense that ranks 30th in yards per attempt allowed over the last month. The Seahawks lead the league in that offensive stat on the flip side. Seattle is my Survivor Fantasy pick this week:

Seahawks 31, Giants 20

- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Before you write off the Bears here…aw heck, who am I kidding? Lesser Packers teams have routinely pounded better Bears squads than this. The only way Green Bay falters is if the guard tandem of Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang both miss the game and the Bears underachieving defensive line can exploit their replacements. Getting Jay Ratliff back will help, but that’s washed out by the asinine loss of Lamarr Houston, who tore up his knee celebrating a sack late in a blowout loss. The football gods do not take kindly to that kind of offense, and their instrument Aaron Rodgers will punish the offending Bears.

Packers 37, Bears 24

- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5): Is there a better song from the 1990s than Guns N Roses’ November Rain? Lots of people consider Smells Like Teen Spirit the death of the bombastic hair band era of rock, but the GNR masterpiece came out 9 months later and is a much more apropos coda to the music of my youth. The orchestration, production quality, ambition and grandeur are everything the likes of Warrant, Dokken (my personal 80s fave) and the rapidly dying pop metal never developed or evolved into. GNR never really fit with those bands but got lumped there by association, and it was fitting for Axl Rose to drive the final nail in the coffin. The video remains arguably the best ever, too.

Why did I talk about a 22-year-old song instead of the game? Because it’s far more interesting than this Trixter dog of a game.

Ravens 33, Titans 24

- Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) in London: The question here isn’t really about the outcome--the Cowboys are handily the better team--but whether or not Tony Romo plays for Dallas with his back fractures. If he does, and I suspect he will because the Cowboys are desperate to snap a two-game slide, Dallas might actually stick more to the run to protect him. That’s a good thing, as the Jaguars have one of the weakest run defenses in the league. The Jaguars do have a shot here if they can create some turnovers. Unfortunately the Jaguars are -9 in turnover margin and have just 10 takeaways in 9 games.

Cowboys 28, Jaguars 21

- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+0.5): The Buccaneers are switching back to Josh McCown from Mike Glennon at quarterback. At 1-7, that move is sort of like changing the cat litter after your precious kitten was run over by the neighbor’s Buick. Still, the Falcons are terrible outdoors…

Bucs 24, Falcons 21

- Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11.5): Sorry Raiders fans, not this week. Not with Peyton Manning coming off yet another humbling defeat in New England where he (correctly) proclaimed he stunk. He’s not stinking two weeks in a row. $1000 on Denver to win big.

Broncos 44, Raiders 16

- Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+4.5): Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 6 TDs two weeks in a row, setting the NFL record in the process. No team has allowed more TD passes than the Jets, who have also allowed a league-high QB Rating of 112.8. Big Ben is good for at least 4 more in New York, which cannot cover the likes of Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant and can’t reliably tackle them after they make the catch, either. You could give the Jets 14 points at home here and I’d still put $1000 on Pittsburgh.

Steelers 39, Jets 20

- St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5): Upset alert! Upset alert! The gut was strong with this one. St. Louis always raises the level of play within the division, and the Cardinals are due for a letdown game. Fret not, Arizona fans, it’s just a one-week anomaly.

Rams 24, Cardinals 23

Monday Night

- Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): It’s time for The Sanchize to lead the Eagles. Color me guardedly optimistic that the former Jets sensation will earn back some of his good name with the talented supporting cast. I strongly suspect he’ll be at least as good as Nick Foles was this year. That will be enough to trump the sagging Panthers, who are ceding over 30 points per game in the last 6 weeks. Getting star guard Evan Mathis back is a nice shot in the arm for the home team.

Eagles 33, Panthers 17 

Betting recap:

Pittsburgh -4.5 for $1000

Denver -11.5 for $1000

As a bonus, here are my college picks for the weekend:

Kansas State 44, TCU 41

Michigan State 20, Ohio State 17

Baylor 57, Oklahoma 45

Alabama 28, LSU 10

Oregon 30, Utah 20