RealGM Analysis
Twenty-six of 32 NFL teams have played four games. NFL coaches often break down their games into quartiles, and I do the same. Once a team has played four games, I no longer look back on 2013 data. The following represents a look at the 13 NFC teams who have played four games. This review will include a look back at some key statistics and player performances as well as a brief look ahead.
Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta has the look and feel of a .500 team. Julio Jones is healthy and terrorizing opposing defenses. Matt Ryan looks sharp. Issues remain on defense, with just 3 sacks (I had them with a league low 29 projection) a run D allowing over 150 yards per game and their typical 65% pass D. It’s their fault for not adding enough front seven sack talent.
The Next Quartile: Four interesting games await in quartile #2. Atlanta has played the NYG tough at their place. They hold slight edges hosting Chicago, a team very similar to these Falcons. Flacco and Ryan reunite in a game at Baltimore. Finally, they travel to London to face an improved Lion team. This looks more like 2-2 than anything else, and that might not be good enough in the long run.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers entered ’14 with no returning WR’s, the loss of several key OL, an extremely leaky secondary that also lost its best player and a QB who was clearly not 100% healthy. They still started 2-0 before dropping their last two games by a combined score of 75-29. Rookie WR Benjamin is tailor made for this team. Until Cam begins to run again (35 rush yards) these Panthers won’t be using their whole arsenal offensively. Expectations were that the pass D% would be subpar but in addition the run D has been awful.
The Next Quartile: They better win hosting Chicago this week, as games 6-8 are at Cincy, at Green Bay and home to Seattle. Carolina’s goal should be 4-4. Cam will have 10 days and 14 days off once the calendar hits November, so staying in the chase during the second quartile might just lead to a late season run.
Chicago Bears: The Bears are also a deserved 2-2. Offensively, early injuries up front have had an effect on the run game. In addition, WR’s Marshall and Jeffrey are not at 100%. Their bye comes after the second quartile so like Carolina they need to keep pace now, hoping their double rest time later on pays off. The defense has allowed 25 points per game and is not stopping the run or the pass. I projected 38 defensive sacks. They need to have a healthy Jared Allen to have a chance at this figure.
The Next Quartile: The Bears have a trio of second quartile road games. They are good enough to split games at Carolina and at Atlanta and get to 4-4. Anything less might put them too far behind others in the Divisional and wild card race.
Dallas Cowboys: Raise your hand if you thought Dallas would be 3-1 right now? It sure likes like Dallas got the message offensively, as stud RB Murray is on pace for nearly 2,150 yards and 20 rush TD’s. Still, this is not yet even an average defensive team. They have five defensive sacks, an over 5.0 run D and a 67% pass D. Enjoy the moment?
The Next Quartile: Dallas can continue to win with a schedule that sees them home in four of the next five games, plus a neutral game in London. 5-3 should be the floor with home games this quartile vs. Houston, the NYG and Washington. I like what’s going on, yet feel poised to be going against them many times during weeks 11-16 if the defensive stats show no improvement.
Detroit Lions: Last year the Lions had the lead in the Division but wilted down the stretch. It could be different this year with the milder mannered Jim Caldwell overseeing a talented offense (with a very stable OL) and a good front seven on defense. Most of the statistical numbers are solid. The run game is off to a slow start, and the turnover ratio is -2.
The Next Quartile: This week will be emotional for Buffalo and their defensive coordinator who was the head coach of the Lions last year. Will he have inside information regarding Stafford or will Calvin Johnson just be too much? The danger game for the Lions might be the following week at Minny. The Lions have been stopping the pass despite having a no-name defense. Drew Brees and New Orleans will test their secondary. So will Matt Ryan in the London game, but the Lion offense could be special vs. that defense.
Green Bay Packers: Everything clicked this past Sunday at Chicago, a place where these Packers have historically won often. Aaron Rodgers told everyone to R-E-L-A-X, and the Packers delivered. The concerns are along the still not 100% offensive line, the lagging sack pressure and a very poor run defense. I expected 45 defensive sacks. Six are all they have.
The Next Quartile: They took huge advantage of the short week vs. Minnesota, but the next three games could be tricky. I expect 2-1 and 5-3 overall as Green Bay will be playing on grass at Miami and should at least split games hosting Carolina and at New Orleans. Still, if they don’t ramp up defensive sacks then the pass D% will be on the wrong side of 60 percent.
Minnesota Vikings: The roster isn’t that much different but Mike Zimmer is the right guy to lead the Vikings. This is still a learning year for all involved. The run game is in the hands of relative unknowns while Peterson sits out. Teddy Bridgewater will be the QB (maybe not this Thursday) and will probably go through some growing pains, especially in the colder months. The pass defense figures to take a beating. Minny may not beat themselves but the better players on the team are all fairly young except for WR Jennings.
The Next Quartile: I did expect a loss on the short week heading to Green Bay, but they’ll have 10 days to get Bridgewater healthy in their most important game of the year, hosting the Lions. They have won 19 of the last 20 hosting Detroit. Can they split games at stumbling Buffalo and inept Tampa? If so, 4-4 is possible. No matter what transpires the rest of ’14 I think the Vikings have a chance to be a team on the rise.
New Orleans Saints: 1-3? Rob Ryan is still awful in crunch time (see 9/14 at Cleveland and the meltdown with his head coach) but last week Rob’s defense started slow and then fizzled out altogether (Neil Young quotation). The surprisingly below par turnover ratio is -6. Defensive sacks are very low at 5. The pass defense is over 70%. The offense misses Sproles. Gloom and doom? No, as they are just one game out of first place and must still be considered the favorite in the NFC South.
The Next Quartile: I expect the Saints to win hosting Tampa, and I also expect the bye week to rejuvenate the offense. The Saints usually play well off a bye week and the game at Detroit will be a nice test of that. Game #8 is at Carolina on a short week. Brees will complete a nice % vs. that defense, but will all the yards translate into points?
New York Giants: In this “new” NFL, contact is limited in the preseason as the newer, safer NFL rules are in effect. As a result Eli Manning and the Giants were not ready at all early in ’14 as they tried to install a brand new offense. Facing Houston and Washington in games 3-4, the Giants scored 75 points. Was that because they got better or because the competition got worse? One thing is for certain: This team is much more viable when they limit offensive turnovers. The statistics, especially on defense are right about where they always are.
The Next Quartile: Games 5-8 are hosting Atlanta, at Philly, at Dallas and after a bye week, hosting Andrew Luck and Indy.
Philadelphia Eagles: The good news last week was that Philly played toe to toe with SF and could have won the game late. The bad news is that they scored zero offensive touchdowns and their usually vaunted run game is not firing on all cylinders. 3-1 should feel good, but two of the wins were by a field goal. Otherwise, the stat sheet is about as expected with the exception of RB McCoy, who has yet to get untracked.
The Next Quartile: Left tackle Lane Johnson comes off suspension which could help both Foles and McCoy get going. The loss last week should help them focus this week vs. a sometimes dangerous road Ram team. Games hosting the NYG (shaky host history) and at Arizona won’t be easy, although the Eagles will have their bye week prior to Arizona. These Eagles are the favorite to win the NFC East, but have yet to play a full four quarter game this season.
San Francisco 49ers: To date the 49ers have not looked like the formidable team they have been in the past under the intense Jim Harbaugh. Dallas handed them the game in the opener, this after SF had not looked good in August. Yes, they rebounded defensively to beat Philly, but as I’ve repeatedly said SF is struggling to find true run-pass balance. RB Gore asserted himself last week but Kaepernick has thrown 124 passes, meaning SF’s run first/wear down the defense philosophy is undergoing massive change. I did expect defensive sacks to be nothing special, but 5 total sacks are still too low. SF is in third place in the tough NFC West behind both Arizona and Seattle.
The Next Quartile: It starts with the return of Alex Smith to the Bay area. When last seen, Alex was 26 of 28 before going down with an injury, never to start for SF again. SF gets a much needed extra day off after that before visiting the Rams on a Monday night. They’ll see the Rams again in their eighth game after a bye, but first they will play on a short week in altitude at Denver. A sweep of STL in two key Divisional games could put them at 5-3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ten days after playing the worst game of any team in the NFL in ‘14, losing 56-14 at Atlanta, Tampa shocked Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh on a last minute touchdown pass. Tampa flat out blew winnable home games vs. Carolina without Cam Newton and a disoriented Ram team so this win was very much needed. Tampa had five sacks vs. the Steelers, giving them nine for the season, ahead of my projected figure of 35. Mike Glennon may not be perfect but like I said in the preview, Josh McCown was lucky enough to play for Marc Trestman last year and his overall resume was not that impressive. RB Martin needs to get untracked. He was not good in August and is running just 2.1 per carry now. Defensively, Tampa is allowing in excess of 75% through the air and that is an easy recipe for failure.
The Next Quartile: No game will be easy for Tampa. After a third straight road game (New Orleans) Tampa will host Baltimore and Minnesota before heading to Cleveland. Unfortunately, losing at home in games 1-2 probably erased any thought of the playoffs but Tampa can at least strive for more offensive consistency while hoping someone makes a play in their defensive secondary.
Washington: Kirk Cousins is auditioning for a starter job in the NFL. He takes fewer sacks as compared to RG III but as he showed vs. the Giants, he panicked and threw four very bad interceptions, staring down his targets. Washington is not a bad offensive team despite possessing a weaker than average offensive line so if they can limit turnovers things will be fine. Defensively this team runs hot and cold. Jim Haslett’s defense sacked Jacksonville 10 times but Washington has only 12 sacks in total. The 64% pass defense hasn’t even seen the best NFL QB’s. I think the whole staff is learning on the job.
The Next Quartile: Washington will host Seattle on MNF. Emotions will be high, but win or lose they will have a short week to prepare for a solid and well-coached Arizona team and it will be at their place. If they lost both games the record will be 1-5. It could be panic time in the Nation’s capital even though the schedule will ease up some after that.