Twenty-six of 32 NFL teams have played four games. NFL coaches often break down their games into quartiles, and I do the same. Once a team has played four games, I no longer look back on 2013 data.  The following represents a look at the 13 AFC teams who have played four games. This review will include a look back at some key statistics and player performances as well as a brief look ahead.

Baltimore Ravens: Things started off poorly with the home loss to Cincinnati, but the Ravens responded well to adversity by winning their next three games.  There are still issues.  The point defense is solid but the pass defense is hurting.  As usual teams find it difficult to run on Baltimore.  The Ravens are settling for too many field goals.  Joe Flacco has thrown five interceptions.  He misses Dennis Pitta but Steve Smith was a huge offseason acquisition and he already has 25 receptions.  I projected 40 sacks and so far the Ravens have just five. 

The Next Quartile: I show them coming up just short at Indy, but the true test of their resolve may be 10/12 at Tampa.  The team has underperformed as a non-Division road favorite and must be focused here.  2-2 would move them to 5-3, good enough to enter the second half of the season as a wild card favorite. 

Buffalo Bills: Buffalo was printing playoff tickets after a 2-0 start.  Now they are blaming a still raw E.J. Manuel for all their troubles.  Manuel is benched after hitting 58% with a 5-3 ratio.  That % is not horrible for a guy with 14 career starts.  The NFL’s worst run defense over the past three seasons has suddenly fixed that at under 2.9 per carry but the #1 pass D% of ’13 has started out around 67%!  That doesn’t cut it in a passing league.  2-2 is about what was expected, although it took an ill-advised Jay Cutler pass to get that initial win in overtime.  I expected some drop with new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz here and now he visits the Lions where he was the head coach.  His current pass defense is not good enough to stop Stafford and Calvin Johnson but the Bills remain strong in takeaways and that could be helpful.  The December schedule is rough so if Buffalo wants to be a playoff contender they need to win games hosting New England and Minnesota and steal a win at the Jets, a place where they’ve batted about .500 over the years.

Houston Texans: After determining a Power # for each team I next calculated each team’s schedule difficulty.  Houston’s schedule was rated the easiest in the NFL!  Evidence of that is the fact these Texans, 2-14 a year ago and starting an average at best QB was favored in each of their first four games!  I do think the team is improved and clearly they have a playoff chance with a strong one-two punch at WR as long as RB Foster is healthy.  Still, the early statistics tell a troubling story.  Houston is on pace to record just 24 sacks.  The run D is nearly 5.0 per carry.  The pass D is about 65%.  QB Fitzgerald already has 5 interceptions and that is par for the course.  If these areas do not improve the Texans will miss the playoffs despite their easy schedule. 

The Next Quartile: The next four games won’t be easy, beginning with a trip to face the well-balanced offensive attack of Dallas.  Divisional games are huge with respect to the wild card race.  The short week host of Indy is a must win even if it is in week #6.  Unfortunately, a tough MNF road game at Pittsburgh is followed by a short week to another road game at Tennessee.  A loss on 10/9 vs. Indy could trigger a downward spiral, at least in the short term. 

Indianapolis Colts: For those who read my season previews, you might remember these last two sentences from the opening statement: Of course Peyton Manning thrived in Indy with a below standard defense.  Perhaps this is the blessing and the curse which has now been transferred to Andrew Luck.  Indy, behind a thriving Andrew Luck has scored 136 points, but is only 2-2.  Luck is on pace to throw for more than 5,200 yards and Reggie Wayne is amazing.  Many will say Trent Richardson looks better but he’s still running under 3.5 per carry!  The defense is a bit below average, but that was expected. 

The Next Quartile: Three of the next four games are vs. the AFC North, with the other game a road affair on a Thursday at Houston.  Only Cincinnati has shown a stout pass defense thus far so Luck will continue to put up strong figures but all four teams could test this Colt defense.  Stealing a win at Houston could put them in the driver’s seat inside the Division.  A loss puts the focus back on QB Luck. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: What happened?  No one expected 10-6 but Jacksonville has allowed 152 points and has scored only 38 since opening up with a 17-0 lead at Philly!  Henne took way too many sacks and so far the Jags have allowed 20!  The offensive talent is too young to make a real difference this year and they are getting nothing from the pivotal TE spot.  The team wanted to get tougher up front defensively but except for a marked improvement in defensive sacks the rest of the numbers are weak, including a near 70% pass D.  The Jags are 0-4 vs. the spread, another sign of underachieving. 

The Next Quartile: It starts with a winnable game hosting Pittsburgh, although it would help if they ran better than they have to open up passing lanes.  Games 6-8 are at Tennessee and home to Cleveland and Miami.  This is their easiest quartile of games.  I think 2-2 is a reasonable expectation now but the pass coverage has to get tighter. 

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs demolished New England on Monday night, moving their record to 2-2, and more importantly, changing their team morale.  Injuries have hurt this team defensively.  KC sometimes uses a three TE set, mostly because they have (by choice) limited options at WR.  Defensive numbers are clearly lacking right now although as expected defensive sacks are back on track.  One of my sleeper TE’s, Kelce is having a fine season. 

The Next Quartile: KC has a rather emotional game at SF next, but the NFL was quite kind in giving Alex Smith and the Chiefs a week off after that game.  On paper this team is not quite to the level they need to be to reach the playoffs, especially with the elevated schedule.  Still, a sweep of home games vs. STL and the Jets during this next quartile could put them even or ahead of Houston in the drive for a playoff spot.  Of course they must find a way to at least split games vs. San Diego, beginning with the one 10/19 at their place. 

Miami Dolphins: What cures a team in complete disarray?  How about playing the dysfunctional Oakland Raiders in London!  There’s nothing wrong with this veteran defense which once again seeks to hold opponents below the magic 60% completion level.  Another little known fact is that the Dolphins routinely achieve 40 or more defensive sacks!  They have 11 so far this season.  RB Miller had a high yards-per-carry figure in college and that has translated to NFL success (49-277).  The OL allowed an NFL high 58 sacks in ’13.  Buffalo and KC sacked them a total of eight times but the overall number (9) is not bad.  Once again, this will be up to coaching and nothing else.  I’m not a big fan of Joe Philbin.  I’ve said this many a time.  Reports are finally surfacing this week about how “uninspired” the team is playing for him.  That’s not a surprise.  

The Next Quartile: Miami is off this week before resuming play hosting Green Bay, Philbin’s former team.  I expect a loss here with the Packers a solid grass team and Miami a less than dynamic home team.  In fact, trading wins and losses could be expected the rest of the way as the team has playoff caliber talent but the staff will make a mistake or two along the way.

New England Patriots: It amuses me that all the talk this week about New England has been about blown draft choices and the lack of astute talent evaluation.  Who just woke up the press?  I’ve said this in my last seven draft reports.  All their wheeling and dealing has cost them two Super Bowl victories and maybe more.  Focusing on the present, the Pats lack a deep threat at WR, traded away Tom Brady’s favorite OL (Mankins), mistakenly avoided TE in the draft, and never accurately addressed needs at safety.  Until they fully trust WR Dobson the pass game will continue to feature slants to Edelman and flairs to Vereen, with the occasional highlight reel play by Gronkowski.  Even with Revis, and playing twice each vs. Buffalo, the Jets and Miami, the pass defense is a bit high.  Brady has been sacked 10 times. 

The Next Quartile: How quickly can this team rebound?  I don’t think anyone should panic as their AFC East rivals all have flaws, but the playoff bye could be slipping away.  This week they host Cincy with six days rest compared to Cincy’s 14.  Games at Buffalo and vs. the Jets on a Thursday come next.  The goal will be to reach 5-3 before entering the deadly third quartile of the schedule.  I’ll save that conversation for the mid-year report!

New York Jets: I did not watch the Jets play and lose to Detroit but have been told that Mike Vick chants could be heard throughout the stadium.  Geno Smith has hit about 60%, but turnovers are an issue.  Of course Mike Vick fumbles just as much.  The Jets go three deep at RB but in this passing league their two best options are Decker and solid rookie TE Amaro.  Yes, Kerley has solid talent, but like I expected, all three of their rookie WR’s were vastly overdrafted.  Here’s the bottom line: Rex Ryan is as good a defensive mind as there is in the game but even he can’t coach up a defensive secondary that has virtually no talent!  The team has 14 sacks but the pass D% is struggling.  The run defense is great. 

The Next Quartile: The next game is away from home, which might be a good thing!  San Diego is on a roll but their defense is vulnerable.  Is there any way these Jets limit turnovers?  A loss at San Diego would put them at 1-4 heading to games hosting Denver and at New England.  Like it or not, the season is on the line this weekend!

Oakland Raiders: On Monday, September 22^nd, I tweeted that the loser of the Oakland-Miami game would fire its coach before they played another game.  Oakland was embarrassed and one of my easier predictions came true.  Oakland had nine new defensive starters in ’13.  They began this year with seven or eight new defensive starters.  Some of the players are decent, but team chemistry is hardly built in such a short period of time.  It’s been at least a half-dozen years since these Raiders have not drafted, traded or signed at least two QB’s a season!  Rookie Carr is learning on the job with 84 completions for a paltry 734 yards!  Oakland brought back the zone blocking scheme and the results have been far less than expected.  The pass D% is well over 70%!  I expected about 40 defensive sacks.  Oakland has 4!  Dennis Allen was in over his head from the very beginning. 

The Next Quartile: This is Oakland’s bye week.  That is the good news!  They are 0-4, losing to three teams not expected to make the playoffs.  They have yet to play games vs. the AFC West and NFC West, meaning they still have to face nine teams with winning records from a year ago!  The last remaining “easy” part of the schedule is NOW, with games 5-7 hosting San Diego and Arizona and at Cleveland.  Can they ramp up defensive pressure?  Tuck has one sack and Mack has zero. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: I like Mike Tomlin.  He knows football, is a straight shooter and schemes well.  What I don’t like is Mike Tomlin and his cohorts on draft day.  Like with New England, I have written about how poorly the Steelers have drafted for at least the past six seasons.  Unlike New England, Pittsburgh knows what areas to draft.  The issue I have is that they have consistently taken lower rated players when much stronger players have been available.  The secondary has virtually no young talent and it is clearly showing, as evidenced by the meltdown late vs. Tampa.  The sack ratio is 7-12.  The run defense is far below their old top three standards.  All this is wasting some pretty good offensive efforts by RB Bell and underrated WR Antonio Brown.  As for Big Ben, no one, and I mean no one on this planet could have double pumped like he did in the Carolina game and then floated a perfect pass to the back of the end zone for a TD.  He is elite, but now has the Andrew Luck curse of having to do it all on this less than perfect team. 

The Next Quartile: Pittsburgh badly needed that win vs. Tampa.  This team usually peaks in December but that could be too late if they don’t take care of business right now.  Games 5-6 are at Jacksonville and Cleveland.  As I said in the NFL preview, there are reasons to believe this will be a split at best!  They host Houston on MNF but then have to play Indy with one less day of preparation.  5-3 keeps them solidly in the playoff chase, but it could have been much better.

San Diego Chargers: Dennis Allen (former Oakland coach) came from the Denver organization.  He was a bad hire from the start.  Mike McCoy also came from Denver.  He has long term promise!  San Diego does not feature a shutdown defense but has managed to allow under 16 points per game.  They sit at 3-1, and almost 4-0!  QB Rivers joins Andy Dalton as having an all-pro season.  Rivers however is doing it without a run game (averages 70-2.4).  San Diego has 10 sacks but the pass D is poor.  That could still hurt them in crunch time. 

The Next Quartile: Games 5-6 are hosting the Jets and at Oakland.  They have a less than perfect record hosting the Jets and are in a situational minus spot.  Believe it or not, going 2-0 in these games actually would be impressive!  The host of a rested KC team on 10/19 is for slotting purposes.  Win that, and the Chargers will be in fine shape. 

Tennessee Titans: In a previous report I noted that it is wise never to overreact to one game.  Tennessee won impressively at KC on opening day but is 0-3 since that time.  Jake Locker is under 57% passing and that is a bad sign.  Of course his replacements are awful!  The secondary was not expected to be good and it’s not, at 64%.  I like rookie RB Sankey but that’s not enough. 

The Next Quartile: Just like after the week one result, let’s not overreact to the 1-3 record.  Yes, they lost to a still suspect Dallas team but the other losses at Cincy and Indy were completely expected!  This next quartile features as easy a slate as you can have!  They host Cleveland and Jacksonville, travel to Washington and come back home to face Houston.  I’d panic if they go just 2-2 vs. this slate but they could run the table.  This is an under the radar team that still needs to be watched closely.