RealGM Analysis
It is never wise to overreact to last week’s results, especially since it was just the first week of the NFL season.
I support looking back to Week 1 results to find some talking points but given the no contact emphasis of the NFL, coupled with starters barely playing during the preseason it is wise to take a step back and understand what just happened in a broader contest. New coaches, new QB’s and marquee free agents made their debut last week. Team chemistry is a work in progress when multiple changes occur. So what really happened last week?
This report will take a look at each team’s Week 1 performance and provide a brief look forward to the next week.
DALLAS COWBOYS:
Looking back:
Tony Romo was not sharp at all in Week 1. Murray ran 22 times for 118 yards and that is exactly what Dallas needs to do, but Romo is showing how much rust he has no matter what his coach and owner say. San Francisco was not firing on all cylinders after a lackluster preseason but they did not have to facing Dallas. The Dallas defense produced just one sack.
Looking forward:
Eventually the offense will click to some degree but I don’t see the defense making any kind of progress in ’14. Dallas was +8 in turnover margin in ’13 and began this season at -4. Forget any free points as these Cowboys are just trying to tread water.
NEW YORK GIANTS:
Looking back:
Everyone saw in August how Eli Manning was struggling with the new offensive scheme. He was 18-33 for 163 in Week 1, with a pair of interceptions. Cruz and Randle combined for four catches and 25 yards. I do expect bigger things from the run game which was hardly perfect last Monday. Then again, these Giants have had issues on Monday night. The defense couldn’t stop Calvin Johnson, but no one can.
Looking forward:
This next game hosting Arizona is very important. Sure, the NFC East is awful, but a loss here further highlights the point that maybe only the Divisional winner will make the playoffs. Arizona has less time to prepare and is off a nice, emotional win. I’ll be watching defensive pressure to see if the NYG can ramp it up vs. Carson Palmer. WR Cruz will be targeted more as well.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES:
Looking back:
A number of teams posted big second half’s after falling behind in the first 30 minutes of play. Philly beat the Jaguars 34-0 in the second half. Newly acquired RB Sproles had a big hand in the offense, and WR Maclin contributed 97 yards and a TD after missing all of ’13. The weak link was the offensive line. They allowed five sacks to a bottom five sack defense. Philly escaped Week 1 but must play better moving forward.
Looking forward:
Two offensive linemen are injured and OT Lane Johnson will remain on suspension until Week 5. The Colts are hardly a great defensive team so I look for the Eagle scheme to make this a shootout. This game will test the Eagle’s secondary. Philly’s history of solid play as a road dog, in domes and on Monday night will be put to the test vs. Andrew Luck.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS:
Looking back:
Six points! That shouldn’t happen vs. a Texan team with a shaky secondary and an error-prone QB. The stat sheet shows RG III at 29-37, RB Morris at 91-7.0 per carry and WR’s Garcon and Jackson catching 18 passes for 139 yards. I’m just a bit surprised at the point total. Washington’s defense was decent, but not spectacular.
Looking forward:
When will that first win come? The regular season losing streak is now at nine. It’s important Washington stretch the field vs. the Jacksonville defense and put pressure on Henne without committing to blitz schemes which caused them headaches in the past. The OL is not perfect as documented by my August preview. Still, this seems like a must win situation for the team.
CHICAGO BEARS:
Looking back:
I wonder what the critics would have said if the Bears won 23-20? Jay Cutler threw an awful across the body pass late which gave Buffalo the chance to win in overtime. The reality is that the Bears did not look any better on defense. Similar to Baltimore, Chicago felt the need to throw 49 passes while running just 18 teams vs. a Buffalo run defense that has been in the bottom five each of the previous three seasons. Something went wrong.
Looking forward:
San Francisco will certainly try to run the ball down Chicago’s defense. The Bears should have run the ball more last week, but this week they face a team that is tougher vs. the run. They’ll need Cutler to have a pretty good day in order to pull an upset.
DETROIT LIONS:
Looking back:
I’m “guilty” of bashing this team for their inability to draft effectively at cornerback and safety. So when two starters were injured the Lions fielded a secondary with virtually no name recognition. That group held Eli Manning and the inept NYG to under 170 passing yards. Golden Tate had a decent career in Seattle, a run first team. I expected him to thrive here and Calvin and Golden combined to go 13-257 vs. a decent NYG pass defense. All QB Stafford needs to do is limit his own turnovers, which he did quite nicely in the opening week. Is there any way the Lions can limit penalties?
Looking forward:
Win at Carolina and I will be duly impressed. The Lions will have less than six full days of preparation and have historically been poor as a grass dog. But this looks like a playoff team IF the secondary overachieves and the penalties stop.
GREEN BAY PACKERS:
Looking back:
I have very good news for Packer fans. Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota have QB’s who are pocket passers. Green Bay could not contain Seattle and mobile QB Russell Wilson just as they have had continuous trouble with SF and Colin Kaepernick. In the end the Packers allowed 207 rush yards and sacked Wilson just once. The offense will be fine as long as Lacy is cleared, but I’m a bit concerned that there was no production at WR behind stars Nelson and Cobb. It’s Green Bay’s own fault that they have fewer options than usual at TE. Once again there are concerns along the offensive line.
Looking forward:
The Packers have a full 10 days to prepare for Geno Smith. I expect a solid passing performance from Rodgers. What I don’t know is if the run defense will regroup vs. a varied Jet rush attack. How good is this Green Bay defense moving forward?
MINNESOTA VIKINGS:
Looking back:
It’s just one game, and it came vs. the QB challenged Rams, who also have a problem in pass defense. Still, as much as I have touted the talent of new head coach Mike Zimmer for over a decade it is quite possible I underestimated his value to this organization. We’ll all know more moving forward but game #1 was pretty good. The Vikings allowed 24-36 vs. the two Ram QB’s and I did project an over 60% pass defense. The team is not fully complete of course but they are in great spirits and figure to improve upon last year’s -12 turnover ratio, which is +2 after game #1.
Looking forward:
Games 2-5 are tougher, especially for their defense. They face Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. That’s why it was so important for the new staff to get that first win early! I think the turnover ratio will not regress to ’13 levels, but I do expect parts of the defense and even some of the offense to be exposed a bit. Look for TE Rudolph to be used more often.
ATLANTA FALCONS:
Looking back:
That was nice! Games vs. New Orleans are always entertaining and this one did not disappoint. I liked the 25-123 rush attack but since rookie RB Freeman was just 2-15 I’m not sure this is sustainable. It sure was nice to have Julio Jones back (7-116). Atlanta’s defense had zero sacks. That area was not fixed in the offseason and won’t be a strong suit this season.
Looking forward:
Obviously, Drew Brees is elite, but overall I still see Atlanta has having a suspect pass D%. Winning a close game is a positive sign but I still want to see how Atlanta plays offensively in the red zone in crunch time. The defense will be tested this Sunday at Cincinnati but the offense could possibly go toe to toe with the Bengals.
CAROLINA PANTHERS:
Looking back:
What do Stephen Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers, Brandin Cooks, Marcus Wheaton and Derek Anderson have in common? They all went to Oregon State University! The first four guys played in the early slate of games and each one of them made a difference. Is it any wonder that Anderson would make it five for five in the late game? Carolina lost three OL this offseason yet allowed just one sack of the immobile Anderson. All WR’s who caught a pass left the team yet Anderson was 24-34 for 230 yards. The secondary is not good at all yet held its own. I don’t think Head Coach Rivera gets enough credit for his understanding of defense. This was a solid effort by a team who knows how to win playing against a team that must learn how to win. Rookie WR Benjamin was expected to flourish in this offense and he was 6-92-1. TE Olsen was 8-83-1. Good things will happen if that turnover ratio remains on the plus side.
Looking forward:
Cam returns now and he faces a Lion team that is just as vulnerable in the secondary. I’m not a fan of the Panther’s secondary which will be tested by Matthew Stafford. I noted in the preview that a win at Tampa may trigger a 3-0 start. I still think there will be rough points during the season but the confidence level got a huge boost in Week 1.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
Looking back:
Here we go again. The Saints and Rob Ryan still need to work on their 4th quarter defense. There’s nothing wrong offensively and I like what Mark Ingram brings to the table. Brandin Cooks had a solid debut. I just need to see a reduced point defense.
Looking forward:
I think the secondary will begin to intercept passes this weekend but I came into the season worried about the run defense and nothing changed after the Saints allowed 25-123 to a below par Atlanta rush attack. I projected defensive sacks to be above the league average for ’14. That could easily happen, but game one was nothing special (one sack). All eyes should be on the defense in the weeks ahead.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:
Looking back:
Ugly! Carolina was without Cam Newton and was starting three new OL and an all new WR group. The secondary was below par last year and lost its best player in free agency. Tampa laid an egg at home in what I called their key game of the season! Would QB McCown miss Chicago offensive guru Marc Trestman? The immediate answer is yes. Once again, there is a reason why I have a column called “Does the preseason mean anything?” RB Martin ran 10 times for 10 yards in August. He ran nine times for nine yards in game #1. To refresh, Tampa could not run this preseason and the offensive line allowed 14 sacks. The August pass D% (68.5%) showed no signs of recovery. Tampa had a 1-3 sack ratio vs. Carolina and allowed 24-34 passing to a back-up QB. Was this performance just part of the adjustment period with so many new faces on the team or a sign that Tampa is not really that good of a team?
Looking forward:
I never was sure why McCown was so coveted considering he was out of football not that long ago. Still, he can be accurate and he has a good 1-2 punch at WR. Of greater concern is how the defense fared in Week 1. I noted in the team keys part of the preview that Tampa “improved” to 35 defensive sacks in ’13. The NFL average was near 41 so realistically this team is and remains below average in this area. What if they can’t beat STL in their second consecutive home game? Tampa needs not just to win on 9/14, but to win with authority.
ARIZONA CARDINALS:
Looking back:
One of the best games in NFL Week 1 took place in Arizona where the Cardinals edged out San Diego 18-17. The good news from that game is that Arizona was able to run with some effectiveness and Caron Palmer threw zero interceptions. I also like this secondary which limited the experienced Philip Rivers to under 60%. The run defense was strong in ’13 and started out much the same in Week 1. I suspected that defensive sacks would be a challenged with all their injuries and suspensions. Arizona had zero defensive sacks in Week 1. 10-6 did not make the NFC playoffs in ’13. This was a much needed win.
Looking forward:
It may not have looked that way, but the NYG have a solid defense. They hope to force Palmer into making some ill-advised throws. The NYG will try to establish the run so if Arizona can force them to pass it becomes advantage Cardinals. This has typically not been an easy game for Arizona but perhaps they steal a win just because the Giants are in a far darker spot emotionally. A 2-0 record in games that really looked on paper as tossups would be a great way to start ’14.
ST. LOUIS RAMS:
Looking back:
I watched as Jeff Fisher delivered a fiery emotional speech at halftime of the game hosting Minnesota. The team did not respond. New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is an upgrade over his predecessors but Week 1 results vs. a team in transition (Minnesota) showed zero progress. The run defense was 30-186. The pass defense vs. a mediocre QB was 17-25. Sacks vs. a sack prone QB totaled 1, and now Chris Long is sidelined. The OL could not protect their substandard QB’s. How quickly can the Rams erase this disaster from their memory?
Looking forward:
Kansas City and Washington had Week 1 problems but it could be argued that STL and Tampa were at the bottom of the barrel based solely on Week 1 results. Now they play each other. A confidence boosting win for either team is essential. STL was +7 in turnover ratio last year. I don’t like the looks of that figure right now. STL would dearly like to establish the run vs. Tampa, taking pressure off their QB’s. More importantly, they need to force turnovers vs. Tampa QB McCown, as I suspect he will complete a nice % vs. this Ram secondary.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS:
Looking back:
San Francisco took advantage of early Cowboys' mistakes and rolled to an easy victory. This may be slightly misleading, as facing and beating a poor Dallas team in convincing fashion masks the fact that the 49ers are not playing all that well themselves. This team looks once again like it will run effectively and finish on the good side of the turnover ratio ledger but I remain concerned about play in the middle of the defensive line. In addition, I’m not sure SF knows if it is fully comfortable in transitioning to more of a pass attack even with a stronger receiving unit in place. SF had three defensive sacks and that is a good sign.
Looking forward:
The defense will be tested by Jay Cutler in Week 2. The offense will be tested by defensively sound Arizona in Week 3. The results of these games will help determine if Kaepernick is throwing more accurately and if the defense is not quite performing to the level they were at a year ago. I have some concerns but this well-coached team may overcome many of them.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:
Looking back:
If confidence wins games then mark Seattle down for 16-0. Their game plan was vastly superior to Green Bay’s Week 1 and they toyed with the Packers' defense. Once again this team was able to parlay looking good in August with early regular season performance. Maybe everyone underestimated the value of Percy Harvin in the run game! He was a man among boys in Week 1. Seattle allowed but one sack to the Green Bay defense. They allowed 43 sacks in total a year ago and if this area improves then the team goes to a whole new level.
Looking forward:
Seattle did a credible job limiting Green Bay to 80 rush yards but I still feel the run defense will undergo some growing pains in ’14. Few teams come close to repeating a +20 turnover ratio. Seattle is unlikely to get that close but will probably be strong in this area. At some point the Seahawks will be challenged, perhaps on the road or with their offensive line in pass protection but for now it’s all systems go.