In a week where off-field action winds up putting the NFL as the lead story on the evening news, it’s nice to get back to actual football.

Last Week: 10-6. For what is typically the most unpredictable week, I’ll take it

Wagering update: I went 2-2, but lost big on Pittsburgh not covering against the Browns. The balance stands at $9000. Joey the Barber bought himself some new Euro-style tight pants with what he took from me in the first week. Folks from my hometown know exactly what I mean.

Thursday Game

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)--It’s downright amazing that the NFL spotlight is focused on Baltimore on this very newsworthy week for both the Ravens and the league itself. The question for this game is how the Ravens players and coaches handle the scandal surrounding their former mate, Ray Rice.

It’s either going to be a major distraction and hinder them, or the catharsis of being on the field and free from the questions and troubling thoughts sets them free to unleash a world of hurt on their bitter rivals. Pittsburgh already presents a big challenge, as their power running and deep passing dichotomy on offense really stresses the defense. The first two possessions of this game are likely to decide the outcome; if Baltimore storms out and rallies the crowd with a touchdown and a quick defensive stand, they could very well win by 20+ points. If the Steelers come out and squash any positive buzz, gashing the defense for an early score and watching Joe Flacco throw two bad incompletions after the Ravens run for a yard on their first play, look out for the home team to be on the wrong end of a powerful hose.

These teams typically play close contests, often decided by late field goals. Not this time.

Ravens 33, Steelers 17

Sunday Games

- New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)--I want to pick the Vikings here. I was thoroughly impressed with their evisceration of the Rams, and I don’t think the Patriots have any answer for Cordarrelle Patterson. The issues along New England’s offensive line trouble me too. But there’s just no way the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots start a season 0-2. None. If by some happenstance Minnesota wins, be on the lookout for porcine planes.

Patriots 28, Vikings 24

- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)--One of the more underrated developments of opening weekend was Carolina winning on the road without Cam Newton. Their offensive line allowed Derek Anderson to get comfortable, as the Buccaneers pressured him just four times all day. Even a journeyman backup playing with journeymen receivers can light up a defense with the pass protection and run/pass balance the Panthers established in the opener.

Having said that, Detroit wins this game if the same Matthew Stafford from Week 1 shows up in Charlotte. He’s never looked better, and with the weapons at his disposal the Panthers just cannot keep up. However, both the starting RT and his backup (LaAdrian Waddle and Corey Hilliard) will be out. Hilliard is gone for the year with a Lisfranc injury. Carolina’s defensive front excels at creating pressure with just four and making plays behind it with the extra man in coverage. Consider this a great litmus test for Stafford’s progress, as well as for Carolina’s new-look OL. One of those factors will win this game.

Panthers 29, Lions 27

- Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)--Two of the more debated QBs face off in The Jungle. Fans are constantly back and forth on both Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton, talented guys who have laid some prominent eggs in big games. Ryan somewhat shook his negative reputation with a playoff run two years ago, something I think happens for Dalton this year. Atlanta’s stirring comeback win last week was fantastic, but I don’t think they can do it again on the road against a better defense. This figures to be one of the most entertaining games on the docket.

Bengals 31, Falcons 24

- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+0.5)--Frequent readers know I’m a sucker for intangibles and outside forces at play. It’s about the only way I can explain my strong inclination that Buffalo wins this game. This city might never have had a better recent run than the home of the Bills, as Matthew Fairburn points out with the Week 1 win, Jim Kelly's good news and the sale of the franchise to Terry Pegula:

Miami is the better team, but I think God is smiling on Buffalo a little bit longer.

Bills 18, Dolphins 16

- Arizona Cardnals at New York Giants (+2)--The Cardinals received quite a shock when star pass rusher John Abraham left the team on Wednesday after being diagnosed with memory loss and a concussion. That’s a real tough blow for a team already struggling to keep bodies on the field. Moreover, it’s a bitter reminder that these are men who face real issues off the field that can be scary and hard to deal with. They get a long plane ride to New York to think about their fallen mate and ponder their own vulnerabilities.

I don’t know how much that will play into their performance against the Giants, but it cannot inspire confidence. New York blew several coverages and has one of the most disjointed offenses I’ve seen in recent times, but they’re not that bad. I think they eke this one out, provided Eli Manning keeps the giveaways at less than three. I’ll even put $250 on it.

Giants 20, Cardinals 17

- Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (+2.5)--In watching the Raiders opener against the Jets, one of the big takeaways is that Derek Carr’s wideouts really struggled to get open against what appears to be a very poor Jets secondary. That’s a real problem that isn’t going to go away. J.J. Watt will dominate whatever Oakland tries to do to keep him from disconnecting Carr’s right arm from his body. This could be a very good fantasy week for second-year wideout Nuke Hopkins and the Texans offense. Oakland is better on defense than widely presumed, but they’re vulnerable to quality No. 2 wideouts form offenses that can also run the ball. That’s Hopkins and the Texans. Friendly reminder that the Texans were 2-0 last year before the injuries mounted and their QB situation turned to flaming dog crap.

Texans 26, Raiders 23

- New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-8.5)--One of the worst things you can do against Green Bay is to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers but fail to finish the job. Ask Bears and Lions fans, who have seen him consistently turn near-sacks into touchdown strikes thanks to his savvy agility and patience to let the downfield routes exploit the leaky coverage. The Jets secondary held up surprisingly well in the opener, but that was rookie QB Derek Carr and an Oakland offense that doesn’t have a skill position player that would make Green Bay’s 53-man roster. The Packers romp at home, and it’s a good week to have Randall Cobb in fantasy football. I’ll take GB at -8.5 for $500.

Packers 30, Jets 17

- Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)--The Titans blew out the Chiefs in Kansas City, an impressive way to start the season. The manner in which they did that portends well for facing the defensively challenged Cowboys. Jake Locker was outstanding. He was smart. He was efficient. He was accurate. Gone were the baffling misfires and the panic-induced INTs. If this new and improved Locker sticks, and the signs are quite encouraging, these Titans have a chance to be a very good football team. Dallas should find better success on offense this week, but I don’t see them outscoring Tennessee in Nashville.

Titans 32, Cowboys 28

- New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)--Last season one of my biggest preseason prediction misses was the Saints defense. I thought they were going to be terrible, in no small part because coordinator Rob Ryan gets too creative for his own good. Looks like I might have been off a year.

The Saints have surrendered a stunning 8.2 yards per play, easily the worst in the league so far. There were blown coverages, missed tackles (six by safety Kenny Vaccaro alone!) and poor execution on gap integrity. It cost them a win over Atlanta.

I don’t believe those struggles are going to go away quickly. However, they catch a break by facing Cleveland. The Browns posted an impressive comeback against Pittsburgh, using a powerful ground game and speed on the outside to claw back from a huge deficit. The problem for Cleveland is that their own defense ranks 31st in yards per play at 7.3, and the Pittsburgh offense is not as polished or diverse as what they are going to see from Drew Brees & Co. this week. Watch the Saints prove my mother correct once again in her assertion that Joe Haden is terribly overrated. You’re right, mom, and this game will give you more evidence. I’m putting $1000 on it.

Saints 33, Browns 20

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins (-5.5)--The Jaguars stunned the football world by racing out to a 17-0 lead in Philadelphia. Suddenly the narrative that Jacksonville is an emerging power gained legs, and there is real confidence surrounding the team. My advice: don’t ignore the second half of that game. Philly won 34-17 and it could have been much, much worse…

 

Washington’s offense sputtered in its opener, but the Texans are going to have that effect on teams. The Jaguars don’t have anyone remotely resembling J.J. Watt, or Brian Cushing, or even D.J. Swearinger. As long as the Washington defense can produce a couple of turnovers and get off the field on third down (just 50% in the opener) they should be a strong home play. Take advantage of the national overconfidence in Jacksonville. Never thought I’d type that last sentence.

Washington 27, Jacksonville 20

- St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)--The Rams are not going to win more than four games all year. This just might be one of them. Tampa’s play on both sides of the line of scrimmage was embarrassing against Carolina, and they’ll need to step it up to handle a St. Louis team that has almost nothing other than strong line play on both offense and defense. They took a big hit with star DE Chris Long’s surgery that will keep him out several weeks, and that’s probably enough to allow the Bucs to prevail. This one gets decided on a blown coverage or a great special teams play. If you’re bold this is the time to use the Buccaneers in Survivor Fantasy pools, but I’m not nearly that confident in the home team.

Buccaneers 17, Rams 14

- Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (+5.5)--When I did my season preview breakdown I had this as a Chargers victory. My rationale was that their diverse offense would match up as well as possible against Seattle’s tough defense, and it’s the home opener for what may be one of the last seasons in San Diego. After watching both of these teams in Week 1, I’m strongly inclined to change my opinion. Losing stud center Nick Hardwick hurts San Diego’s cause even more.

Yet I’m not going to overreact to one week. I’m still a believer in these Chargers and I still think Seattle has exploitable vulnerabilities. They’re a different team away from the raucous comforts of home. Do I have any confidence in this pick? No, but I’m not wavering.

Chargers 20, Seahawks 17

- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-13.5)--Kansas City gets shellacked in the opener, loses two key defensive starters for the season, and now they have to go to Denver to play the reigning AFC champs. You can bet the perfectionist in Peyton Manning is going to address the Broncos’ surprising second-half offensive slumber against the Colts. He’ll be screaming for vengeance, breaking the law of football that says you can’t throw deep when up by 24 in the 3rd quarter. This one has blowout written all over it.

Broncos 40, Chiefs 19

- Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)--The scheduling gods were quite kind to the San Francisco offense. After opening with the Cowboys in a pseudo home game in Dallas, they get to return to their actual home and break in the new stadium against the Bears. Chicago’s defense couldn’t contain E.J. Manuel and the Bills, so expecting any improvement against Kaepernick and the strong running tandem of Gore & Hyde seems crazy.  I like how Kaepernick ran the offense, even when they went conservative once garnering a big lead. Chicago’s offense will find some success as they have too much talent to do otherwise, but Jay Cutler is going to have to be a lot better than he was against Buffalo to pull this one off. On the road in the inaugural game of Levi’s Stadium in prime time against a Niners defense that still apparently has some teeth? That’s a tall order.

Niners 31, Bears 20

Monday Night:

- Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)--If you only saw these two teams play the second halves of their openers, you’d think this is a Super Bowl preview. Alas, they lost the first halves by a combined score of 41-7.

I trust Andrew Luck a lot more than I trust Nick Foles, who missed an unreal amount of opportunities against the Jaguars. The Colts have their own problems with a player unable to take advantage of opportunities, however. Check out this appalling lack of vision and common sense from Trent Richardson:

Still, Richardson is a minor player compared to Luck. When the Colts went up-tempo and put Pep Hamilto’s otherwise predictable, pedantic offense in his hands, Indy’s efficiency and lethality really perked up. I don’t believe Foles and the Eagles can match that. I’ll wager $500 on it, too.

Colts 30, Eagles 24

Wagering summary:

New Orleans -6.5 for $1000

Green Bay -8.5 for $500

Indianapolis -2.5 for $500

New York Giants +2 for $250